Chat transcript: How much of an effect will conventions really have this year?

Aug 27, 2020

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Hello chatters, 

We’ve made it through seven out of eight convention days, with President Trump on tap for tonight (and lots of coffee on tap this morning). 

We’ve been blanketing the convention from all angles: Aaron giving you what the takeaways have been, Amber Phillips looking at how the speakers are touting Trump while considering their political futures, and Eugene Scott is watching how Republicans try to make Trump more palatable on matters of race. 

What’s stood out to you this week? 

Why do you think the convention ratings are so much lower this year than four years ago? It's not like people are out doing things. Nothing else good is on TV. Ain't nobody reading books, either.

I believe there's polling supporting that most people really have made up their minds and aren't looking to the convention speakers to persuade them in one direction or not. And one could make the argument that unless you're really into politics as sport that there are more interesting things to watch on television -- or even do with your time -- than watch members of your opposing party attempt to persuade you to see the world differently than you do.

What does a Trump post-presidency look like?

I have a very difficult time seeing him fade into the background. Lots of cable news hits, maybe doing his own media company thing (which is what people thought might happen if he lost in 2016), etc. The one argument that might tempt him to take a step back is if he decides it's time for Don Jr. to take the reins and be the political face of the family.

Looks like she's betting the farm on Trump, in spite of the derecho, drought, exploding Covid cases, and trade woes that beset Iowa. Smart strategy or way to be one-termer?

It's tough to predict. You're right that she was the only vulnerable Republican senator to speak at this week's convention. She clearly decided that she'll have a better chance of winning with his supporters. Trump is still popular in parts of the state, but Joe Biden is closing in in polling right now.

More likely to be Biden blue in November: Ohio or Georgia?

I'd still say Ohio, narrowly, even though Georgia was 3 points closer (Trump +5) than Ohio (Trump +8) in 2016. Georgia feels like a state where Democrats might continue to get closer, but doesn't have as much of a swing sensibility about it.

Someone mentioned that Trump's family at the RNC looked like a mob family falling in line. It's weird but I don't remember Bush family so much and maybe it's because none of them had a role in the federal government when either Bush was president. Outside of the wives, grandmothers and children who lived in the White House, I can't recall one.

As political as the Bush family was, it's fair to conclude that they were less visible in the re-election process of George H.W. Bush than the Trump off-spring. And that certainly was the case for the George W. Bush and his daughters. But another reason why the Bushes were less visible than the Trump's in their father's presidency is because this was before social media, which has allowed for far more opportunities for individuals affiliated with a campaign or administration to engage with voters than ever before. And the Trump children are without question more active on social media than any other political family that has come before them.

What is the next big milestone event for 2020 politics? Debates? Hurricane Laura impact? October surprise (i.e., miracle vaccine appears)? Further police-related riots? Seems unlikely either candidate gets a sustained, significant bounce from the conventions?

That would definitely be the presidential debates, which will also look different because of the pandemic. Coming up we have:
Trump vs. Biden: Sept. 29

Pence vs. Harris: Oct. 7
Trump vs. Biden: Oct. 15
Trump vs. Biden: Oct. 22

 

The Trump campaign has petitioned for more, earlier debates in September. That's not going to happen.

Do you think voters forget that all of the horrible things Biden (according to Trump) will bring are actually here under Trump?

I think that was one of the many contradictions in Vice President Pence's speech (as well as others). "You won't be safe in Joe Biden's America," he said. It was in reference to Black Lives Matter protesters, but he completely glossed over the fact that under the Trump administration's leadership, six months into this pandemic it's not safe to go to school, or the office, or bars or restaurants in some cases. And that's why the president's poll numbers are so far down -- by an average 10 points to Biden, according to high quality national poll numbers

How much of an effect will conventions really have this year? I highly doubt that many swayable voters are tuning in.

It is unusual for presidential candidates to not have a bump in their polling after their party's convention, but how long that bump lasts and whether it is enough to change the dynamics of the race is more mixed.

As to whether swing voters are tuning in or are influenced by the conventions, we will have to wait for new polling in the upcoming days/weeks. But to your point, there is a shrinking pool of swing voters out there, in part because views on both candidates are baked in. So until new polling comes out, it is very much speculative to suggest how much voters will be impacted or swayed by these conventions.

Romney went out on a limb to condemn Trump by voting to remove him from office. That generated a lot of positive media coverage, which never hurts if you're a politician. If Trump loses in a landslide, there could be a lot of GOP soul-searching. Looking at the 2024 field, is it just me, or is Romney well-positioned for another run? The only potential Westerner in the field is AZ Gov. Doug Ducey, who hasn't handled COVID-19 particularly well. Romney can clean up out West, just like he did in 2012, including Nevada, an early state. New England and the Mid-Atlantic has Charlie Baker, who is pro-choice and thus a non-starter, and Larry Hogan, who has had health problems, as possible candidates. So Romney looks strong there, with New Hampshire as another early state. He's weak in the South, but there are also a ton of Southerners planning to run (Cruz, Cotton, Scott, Paul, DeSantis, Gaetz, Kemp, Haley, and Scott), which could scramble the results in that region. Leaving only the Midwest, where Romney grew up as the son of the governor of Michigan.

I have a very difficult time seeing the GOP making such a sharp turn in four years, even if Trump loses badly and they have some buyer's remorse. Romney could have a constituency, but probably nowhere near as big as the lingering Trump base -- which may hold him responsible for Trump's downfall as much as blaming Trump himself.

I also doubt Romney is making this calculation. Perhaps he reasons that he'd have no shot if Trumpism persists anyway (because of 2012 and because others have a much better claim to it), and he'd have that lane to himself. But he could've also played it more down the middle and not infuriated so many of the voters he'd need.

Was the cause of his death ever released? (Covid?)

I have not seen any updated reason given beyond what the Post published at the time of his death:

"He had been hospitalized for several days after becoming seriously ill."

Hello, The Fix Folks, So an IG, I think it was, has determined that Chad Wolf is illegally Acting Head of DHS. So, why is still there? Does it take a vote by the Senate to get him out? Or can the DoJ do it, and just doesn't want to? How does it work, to give the boot to an illegally placed official? Thanks! 

That's the thing with the Trump administration pushing the law so close to the edges -- in some cases, the DOJ would be the one to step in. In most cases, they're not going to, and public pressure is what drives any changes. Trump can fire government employees at will, not Congress. So I'm not sure what can happen here. A nonpartisan Government Accountability Office said his position at the top is unlawful. But, we just reported this week that the president will finally nominate Wolf to fully lead DHS. As our team reports, that confirmation in the Senate might not happen because we're so close to an election. So he may keep on serving like this. 

Is the post office debate a reminder that every now again, politics is still local?

I think that's a great perspective to put on it. Yes, this is a national issue, but we're debating which mailboxes in our neighborhoods are still there and which should be removed. Or how our local election official will interpret our signature that they have on record from our local DMV. Or whether your neighbor can pick up your signed and sealed ballot and deliver it to your local election office. 

Doesn't President Trump understand civil disobedience? He pardoned Anthony last week for voting illegally. She WANTED to be arrested and refused to pay the fine, daring them to jail her. Indeed, the Susan B. Anthony Museum refused the pardon on her part. Thoughts?

It's, of course, difficult to discern what a dead person would have wanted. The Susan B. Anthony Museum said:

"She was outraged to be denied a trial by jury. She proclaimed, 'I shall never pay a dollar of your unjust penalty.' To pay would have been to validate the proceedings. To pardon Susan B. Anthony does the same."

That's certainly one way to look at it, but pardons exist in part to right past wrongs, so you could argue it's appropriate. And the idea that accepting a pardon implies accepting guilt is a myth, as Brian C. Kalt wrote in The Post in 2018. This seems to be mostly about them feeling she's being used by a president whom they view as trying to suppress the vote.

Hello, The Fix Folks, In the coverage of Louis DeJoy's testimony to the Congress, I did not note any questions RE his conflict of interest due to his holding/position in a shipping company, I believe it is. Did I miss that? Why is considered qualified to head the USPS with this conflict?

Rep. Jackie Speier (D-Calif.) asked DeJoy about his Amazon stock sale and Rep. Gerald E. Connolly (D-Va.) has followed up with DeJoy to ask about any communications he may have had with Trump campaign officials. 

Hi Everyone -- thanks for taking questions during this very busy week on many fronts. According to the RNC we've seen so far, the Coronavirus is, if not over, well under control (witness the lack of social distancing and masks during Pence's speech and his maskless 87 year old mother in the middle of it), the occasional perfunctory mentions of concern notwithstanding. With the coronavirus high on the list of voters' concerns, Trump's approval on that issue well under water, and the reality of cases still growing in many communities and schools, how is that approach going to play in November? Are they hoping that, by then, voters either won’t care anymore or be so numb to the whole disaster that it won’t play into their decision making?

It's the same calculation that Trump has made from the beginning (to his detriment, as I've written): That momentary headlines about how bad things are are a bigger liability than what this looks like when voters are actually voting. The GOP convention seems to be making a concerted effort to ignore the negative, which fits with Trump's messaging.

Larry Kudlow in his prepared remarks even referenced the continued pain, but he never actually deliver that line, instead talking about the coronavirus outbreak in the past tense.

On election night itself, what races are you all going to be paying closest attention to?

I was just thinking of this. So, one, we probably won't get results right away in these big races. But the race I will be watching for when we get results is probably North Carolina's Senate race. Sen. Thom Tillis (R) is being challenged by Cal Cunningham, who is raising insane amounts of money, but is still running in a state that leans red. Operatives on both sides tell me this is the swingiest state in the nation, for the Senate and White House. If Democrats can flip this, maybe they can take back the Senate. (There's also a governor's race that is looking less competitive, which is a good thing for Democrats, a few competitive House races, and Democrats are trying to flip the state Senate in a really good election cycle scenario.) 

It seems like 90% of the country knows who they are voting for. What is the makeup of undecided voters at this point?

A Wall Street Journal analysis last week reported that on average, fewer than 10 percent of voters can be categorized as "swing voters," which is down from roughly 18 percent of such voters between 1948 and 1992.

You can't be serious, can you? Trump believes that there is no other human being alive who can do what he does. He would NEVER hand the reins over to DJ. Not in a million years.

Possibly not! I'm not sure anyone could prevail upon Trump to make that kind of a decision, but he clearly wants to promote his children.

The NYT has Nate Cohn. ABC has Nate Silver. CNN has Harry Enten. The Economist has G. Elliott Morris. Who is the WaPo's resident numbers person?

We have a fantastic polling team at The Washington Post, led by Scott Clement and Emily Guskin. All our reporters and analysts are very capable at analyzing polling to talk about trends in politics (though not predict).

A different way to ask your question: Can we get some more female and people of color doing political analysis? The Fix is proud to have both. 

If Biden/Harris win and propose a jobs bill/stimulus/aid to states program and the GOP start bemoaning the deficit, how much will the media push back against such criticism as bad faith, given the lack of concern about deficit spending during the Trump (and Bush and Reagan) years?

I'm pretty confident that if the GOP returns to being the party of limited spending if Biden enters the Oval Office that countless pieces will be written highlighting how lawmakers abandoned this worldview under the presidency of President Trump.

I'm a democrat and do not like Trump, but even I have to admit my own bias here - I cant help but think about how poignant a Susan B. Anthony padron would have been coming from President Hillary Clinton on the 100th anniversary of giving white women the right to vote. I tell myself it probably would have felt more like honoring her, rather than a political stunt.

As with Jack Johnson, Trump makes what seems like a logical pardon that people might have been surprised didn't come many years ago.

Polls show a tight race in North Carolina, with Biden and Trump tied, or maybe even a small Trump lead. Yet, in the Senate race, Cal Cunningham has generally been leading Thom Tillis, the incumbent senator, by an ever growing margin. Where's the disconnect? Why is Trump holding his own in NC? Why is Cunningham doing so well compared with Biden?

Well, I don't know that Trump is holding his own in North Carolina. According to polling gathered by our polling team, Biden leads Trump in North Carolina by an average six points from high-quality polls in July. That's not nothing in an increasingly competitive swing state. Two recent polls in the Senate race show Tillis behind Cunningham by 9 points, which are numbers surprising even Democratic strategists I talk to. They expect the Senate race -- and presidential -- to narrow in North Carolina as more people start to pay attention .

Chief of Staff Mark Meadows claimed that the average American doesn't care about the WH being used for political purposes, though never mind he was involved in trying to strengthen the Hatch Act when he was in Congress. Putting aside the blatant hypocrisy aside for a moment, is he right? For the record, as a voter and citizen I care deeply, but maybe that's just me.

I'm not sure many people are even aware of why this is problematic. I bet less than 1 percent of people know what the Hatch Act is. But when you're talking about deliberate potential violations of the law, it's a big story -- especially when these controversies have been covered so extensively before the convention, and the GOP not only pressed forward but pushed the envelope even farther with the pardon and naturalization stuff.

GAO said Wolf's appointment was illegal. Why does he get to still show up for work and order DHS employees around?

Because he can do so until a court says his decisions have no legal authority or Congress does something about this (which it won't). The former is what to watch out for -- and may have been the reason Trump ultimately nominated him to the permanent job.

I registered to vote over 40 years ago. My handwriting looks nothing like it did then. If I were subject to a signature comparison (Not sure, which is why I'm voting early in person), they'd toss it. There has to be a better way.

My Post colleague Elise Viebeck published a good rundown this week on how to prevent your mail-in ballot from being rejected.

There are currently 19 states that require that voters are notified when there is a signature discrepancy on their ballot to give them a chance to correct it.

When Pence warned that American’s wouldn’t be safe if Biden was elected, was that a prediction or a threat? The administration often says things like that and then the base goes out and makes it a self-fulfilling prophecy. Perfect example is the militia teen who shot and killed two BLM protesters in Wisconsin.

I don't know about the answer to that question, but it was definitely the politics of fear, which is a Trumpian way of campaigning. It worked for him in 2016, talking about illegal immigration (and to some degree inner-city crime). It didn't work as well for him in the 2018 midterm elections to warn people of dangerous migrant caravans. (His party lost the House of Representatives for the first time in nearly a decade.) We'll see in 2020. 

It seems like slaughtering unarmed Black Americans has only accelerated since George Floyd. Police unions are coming out in support of the most racist president in my lifetime. Do the police really think they can keep going with business as usual?

Views on police violence vary within law enforcement. And so while there are some individuals who are incredibly defensive right now and deeply upset with the Black Lives Matter movement, there are others who believe that this moment requires deep reflection and changes within police departments. Whether Trump wins or loses, there will be pressure on police departments to alter what policing looks like moving forward. The question at this point is: To what degree?

Are people really not paying attention, or haven't been for the last 6 months, or 4 years? Can you help me understand the type of person that will suddenly decide to back Donald Trump between right now and November?

Trump's favorable rating on Election Day 2016 was about 39-40 percent, and he got 46 percent of the vote. I can see people who may not like Trump personally and are tired of major elements of his presidency who could feel inclined to vote Republican because of social issues, Supreme Court justices, or other emerging issues.

The thing is, though, polls generally show many fewer undecideds this time than in 2016, when people disliked Clinton nearly as much (or as much) as Trump. I really think the GOP needs to damage Biden, or Biden needs to damage Biden.

Is there any national law on this? Iowa's SOS has told counties they cannot use drop boxes to collect ballots this fall. Here in Oregon, my county has put in a new, larger box at the county courthouse?

There is no national law on ballot drop boxes. The Trump campaign had gone to court to ban drop boxes in Pennsylvania, but a judge stayed the case on Sunday.

Here is a helpful guide on states that have ballot drop boxes available to voters.

And here is a helpful guide that The Post published this week on how to make sure that your mail-in ballot is not rejected.

"I'm not sure many people are even aware of why this is problematic. I bet less than 1 percent of people know what the Hatch Act is..." And I would bet that if a Democratic Administration pulled these misdeeds, Republican heads would explode and the media would charge right after them. But then...Trump continues to give America the middle finger and collective shake and voices sigh but -- for the media -- Oh well, just another day in Trump Land...

Apparently you haven't seen our very extensive coverage of this issue, which as I said is a very big story and should be covered as such regardless of how many voters decide they ultimately care.

what political story would you LOVE to write?

This isn't the answer you want, but you have spurred an internal Fix conversation about whether this is a compliment or you are mocking us. 

Honest, non-rhetorical question here: do you think there has been sufficient focus on Trump's health? Mental and physical. We still have no details on his mysterious visit to Walter Reed early this year, by all accounts he has a subpar diet - for his age especially, he gets little exercise besides ambling about on the golf course, and his *younger* brother just died of unexplained causes. Yet Biden - who appears to be in great condition for a man his age - is somehow the one we should be worried about?! Appreciate your thoughts here.

I think it's fair to argue that the American public does not know much about President Trump's health. And many of the questions that some voters had for Hillary Clinton and even Joe Biden have gone unanswered regarding Trump. The likelihood of him being more transparent about his health in the future than he has in the past though is low. And the public is going to remain largely ignorant about some topics that voters understandably have some concerns about -- perhaps primarily, the president's mental health.

Not to play favorites among this excellent group, but Aaron, how is Trump looking in MN? Sometimes your home state is a swing state, sometimes we're not. He came close in 2016 so does he think he has a realistic shot this year?

He apparently does, given how much Minnesota has featured at the convention (especially northern Minnesota, with its conservative Democrats). I think people underestimate how close it could be and how much this is increasingly on the map for the GOP (kind of like how Ohio, Wisconsin and Iowa have shifted toward the GOP). That said, I don't yet see it as a decisive state. If Trump wins it, he's probably won anyway.

Will the polling places have the same number of officials/volunteers to make sure there are no voting irregularities even with the covid restrictions? What about the mail in ballots? If the volume of mail in ballots is expected to increase dramatically over previous elections, will the local election officials increase dramatically the number of helpers to check on mail in ballots?

These are all very good questions that election officials all over the nation are dealing with right now -- and in some cases fighting over. So, the actual answer is it depends on what your local jurisdiction decides. 

Speaking generally, election officials are worried about poll workers -- who tend to skew older and could be more vulnerable to the virus -- not agreeing to work. They also need to find new in-person places to allow people to vote on socially distant ways, and not every community has that. (The Lakers opened up the Staples Center, for instance.) 

Re mailing in, not enough states have these expensive, fast machines to count ballots coming in. Most of them are going to be overwhelmed with a volume of absentee ballots they've never had to deal with before. They're trying to recruit and train workers to help, but they'll all warning us that results are going to take longer than we expect. Like days, a week, or worst-case scenario, weeks. 

Here's more on how to make sure your vote counts in November, however you choose to vote.

Is this no longer the third rail of US politics? Has the president indicated that he would try to continue Social Security payments when there is no money left if he gets rid of the payroll taxes? Has anyone from the administration at least talked about grandfathering in current recipients to protect their over 62 vote even if there is no money for it? I don't understand how this hasn't taken over the Biden campaign? Or are they just waiting to concentrate on it until the convention is over.

The Biden campaign ran a TV ad in Florida earlier this month, claiming that Trump wanted to cut Social Security funding. Biden also mentioned this during his convention speech last week.

Trump has said he wants to rescind the payroll tax, which funds much of Social Security, but how and whether this would/could happen is murky. The Post's Fact Checker looked at this last week.

Maybe I'm just burned out, but of all the things that you could get angry at President Trump for, giving his acceptance speech at the White House during a pandemic and no huge convention to give it just isn't something I can get upset about I think it's a one off and no sitting president is ever going to want to not be at a Convention ever again

Maybe. There is a heated argument in Washington now about whether voters care about these violations. And because of the intricacies of the Hatch Act, it seems that Trump holding a naturalization ceremony -- an official presidential act -- and the RNC using it at the convention could be the bigger violation. Same with all the White House and Cabinet officials speaking. 

Anyway. We  at The Washington Post are covering this like it matters. I argued in yesterday's newsletter that it does. Here's why: "We all know that these people want Trump to get reelected. That’d be true whether they spoke at the convention or not. But the point of the Hatch Act is to remind Americans who didn’t vote for Trump that these government officials also ostensibly have their best interest in mind, too."

NO trolling intended at all. I admire you for coping with the news tsunami. Was just curious, as a journalism major, editor, and writer, what story you would be thrilled to write? Something like the Watergate saga, or something more character driven like Gail Sheehy did, or something more related to the social media that has cast a different light on all our activities?

One of the most undersold stories of our time is the impact that misinformation has on people and the silo-ing of the information on which people make their political and voting decisions. The problem is it's such a vast story with so many data points and so much subjectivity that it's extremely difficult to pin down what does and doesn't matter and to quantify it.

Someone smarter than me who writes a book on this would be doing the country a great service. Then again, you wonder precisely who would even consume or believe the information contained within it.

Hi there! This is already being covered, but I think mail-in voting is probably the most important story of this election. For the first time in awhile, voters have to think a lot about HOW they vote, not just WHO they vote for.

I also would like to find time to look at the big statehouses races in America. This is the first election in 20 years where a presidential race coincides with elections that will set up legislatures in most states to redraw congressional maps based on the Census. (They'll start that process next year.) It could determine control of Congress and state legislatures for the next decade, or at the very least make the losing party have to climb even more hills to win elections.

Hillary Clinton said Joe Biden should "not concede under any circumstances". In the event of a close race, shouldn't both sides be willing to concede once the results are in?

Clinton's comment was about election night, when it's very unlikely we'll know the winner unless it's Biden by a clear margin, because of mail-in voting. I know this raised lots of eyebrows, but it seemed to me her point was more about making sure Democrats were ready for the legal fights over these mail ballots, which will come if it's at all close (and as Trump suggests and as 2016 suggests, perhaps even if it's not).

Most national polls show Biden leading Trump by 8-10 points. This would be a larger win than Obama's 2008 win over McCain, which was considered a landslide. Yet, there seems to be this tendency in the punditry to argue that Trump can pull a rabbit out of his hat again and win because of the Electoral College. That whatever gains Biden has made with seniors are ephemeral, while Trump has made modest inroads with black and Hispanic voters. That there are shy Trump voters, but pollsters say no, there aren't. That the enthusiasm gap is the best indicator, and Trump supporters support Trump harder than Biden supporters support Biden. That the virus will discourage Biden voters more than Trump voters. That mail-in voting issues will negatively impact Biden voters more than Trump voters. Just tell it to me straight -- where does this race stand? My health can't take it anymore.

The Wall Street Journal had an interesting analysis over the weekend that suggested if Trump could turn out white voters without four-year college degrees, as George W. Bush did in 2004, he could narrow the gap significantly in swing states that he needs to win and where he has consistently trailed Biden.

While Biden's lead is smaller in some swing states compared to Hillary Clinton's 2016 leads in those states, there is not necessarily strong evidence of an enthusiasm gap between Biden and Trump.

Biden is obviously a different candidate than Clinton and Trump has struggled so far to run as an incumbent.

Furthermore as I've noted in this chat before, Biden is one of only three presidential candidates to hit 50 percent at this point in the cycle. The other two were Richard Nixon in 1972 and Ronald Reagan in 1984. Both went on to win.

Lou Holtz said at the RNC that VP Biden is a Catholic "in name only." Again, it seems like Trump is throwing everything at the wall and hoping it will stick. How effective do you think this line of attack is for voters? In light of Trump's own complicated relationship with religion and his turbulent personal life, I'm not sure this has much resonance outside a very small group of voters, but is it enough to make a difference?

This echoes what Trump said recently, saying Biden "hurt God." So it's no coincidence. I'm not sure questioning his faith is the best strategy, and Biden's faith isn't just something that just showed up all of a sudden; he's spoken about it in much more detailed ways than Trump has. It's all about planting a seed of doubt. It's the definition of bare-knuckles politics.

Thank you, as always, for your great questions, which are giving us a little boost as we power through this last night. 

In This Chat
Amber Phillips
Amber Phillips writes about politics for The Fix. She was previously the one-woman D.C. bureau for the Las Vegas Sun and has reported from Boston and Taiwan.
Aaron Blake
Aaron Blake is senior political reporter for The Fix. A Minnesota native, he has also written about politics for the Minneapolis Star Tribune and The Hill newspaper.
Eugene Scott
Eugene Scott writes about identity politics for The Fix. He was recently a fellow at the Georgetown University Institute of Politics. And prior to joining the Post, he was a breaking news reporter at CNN Politics.
JM Rieger
JM Rieger is the video editor for The Fix, covering national politics. He joined The Washington Post in 2018. Previously, Rieger worked as a video producer covering national politics for HuffPost. He began his career as a video editor covering Congress for Roll Call.
Natalie Jennings
Natalie Jennings is editor of The Fix. She has been at The Washington Post since 2010 and was previously a senior producer for Post Video.
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