Politics Live with The Fix: What we learned from New Hampshire

Feb 13, 2020

Got a burning politics question, or just something you’re curious about? Each week, starting Thursday at noon, The Fix team chats with readers about the big stories in politics.

If you’re a longtime fan of the Ask Amber and Ask Aaron chats, we’re glad you’re back for the new and expanded chat. If you’re new, thanks for checking us out.

This week, Aaron has been following the drama at the Justice Department surrounding Roger Stone’s sentencing recommendations.

Amber is just back from covering the New Hampshire primary, where, fortunately, there were some results. Eugene has been examining the fallout from that, especially for Joe Biden, who finished poorly in the first two states just as Mike Bloomberg is rising in polls.

And JM has been tuned into all of that plus how the 2020 Democrats are now zeroing in on one another as we get deeper in the primary.

What do you want to know? Share your questions now or ahead of time using the “Ask Now” button.

Are you surprised that Bloomberg hasn't released any of his polling in the super tuesday states to show that he is doing well? Does this mean his tv ads aren't working or that they just don't want to show how strong they are?

1. I'm not sure he really needs to. The limited public polling we've seen showed him in the double digits in many of those states.

2. Releasing more polling showing that, this far out, would just invite his opponents to stop giving him a free pass. That's kind of begun here, but a poll showing him 1st or 2nd in one of those states would really bring out the knives.

Hey, Fix team. You put Mayor Buttiegeg in the losers column after the NH debate, but most other commentators listed him as a winner. Including the original Fix, Chris Cillizza. What say you, disagreeing to such a degree with your former mentor? Other than mayonnaise, I usually agree with Cillizza. 

I mean, he clearly did fine! Coming that close to Sanders has to make him one of the winners of primary night (which we had him as).

I do wonder, though, if Klobuchar hadn't gone at him so hard and done well herself, if he might have been able to pull off the win. That's pure speculation, but I've thought about it a lot.

and the field has thinned, are there any remaining candidates who could not beat Donald Trump? Or does meddling in the justice system not matter any more?

So, your question is: Now that a number of the lowest-polling candidates are out (Michael Bennet, Deval Patrick, Andrew Yang), are there any Democratic candidates who could lose to Trump? Absolutely. I'd say for all of them, it's a possibility.

Establishment Democrats are particularly worried that Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) is vulnerable by embracing the "Democratic socialist" label. A Gallup survey from last year finds more Americans would vote for an atheist or Muslim over a socialist. 

But no matter who goes up against Trump, Democrats are nervous about the fact his approval ratings are rising with the economy after impeachment.

This is his absolutely last campaign! There are no others after this unless he pulls it out. But will he give up before the Palmetto State Primary if he thinks he's going to lose?

I think there's a reasonable chance he might drop out -- but only if he has no money and it looks like it's going to be a(nother) embarrassment for him. Given how much he's emphasized the state, anything but a top two finish would be an embarrassment.

If Trump pardons Roger Stone, does that give the green light for future presidents to pardon those whose wrongdoing is directly related to the president?

If he does it and he doesn't face blowback? Of course it would encourage them. Of course, I'm not sure how many politicians would be able to replicate the kinds of things Trump does and survive to tell the tale. 

I do think also, though, that once the election is over, and he had less and less political reason to avoid such pardons, we might see some big ones.

So why is he running in the Democrat primaries? Why did the Democrats accept him if they really don't want him as their candidate?

While Sanders is not a member of the Democratic Party, he generally caucuses with Democrats in the Senate and signed a pledge in 2019 to run for president as a Democrat and to govern as a Democrat if elected president.

However, some congressional Democrats have been critical of Sanders for the same reason you outlined: If he is not a Democrat, he should not run for president as a Democrat.

Pretty sure this won't get answered, but a certain Fix person reported Bernie Sanders as a big winner in the New Hampshire primary. Ignoring that his total went from 60% in 2016 to 25.9 (ok, 26) % in 2020, the small total of voting, and the zero total of elector difference made the column totally bogus. Bernie resides next door, he had a very small win, which should have been reported as a loss, especially when considering that the total vote for the more centrist candidates greatly exceeded Bernie and/or Elizabeth's total. To me this was blatantly prejudicial reporting. Also, the media is making way too much of the Iowa caucus (I live in Cedar Rapids, IA). It took the Republicans 16 days to get the final total in 2012. More should have been made about the Republicans trolling the phone lines and preventing an earlier result reporting. Is this particular reporter biased for Bernie?

1. People can disagree about labeling Sanders a winner, but he won. It was less resounding than in 2016, but this is also a different race. As I noted, he also might benefit from Warren falling off, because her supporters would be available to him.

2. The reason Iowa took a while in 2012 was because it was close -- not because they failed to count the votes. The former is understandable, even if they still kind of botched it.

First a comment, then a question: I long ago abandoned any hope that Trump's enablers in the Senate would do anything about his abuses of power, but I still thought at least one of them would at least dare to say out loud that the president's campaign to keep his buddy Roger out of jail is a perversion of justice--NOT just "problematic," which seems to be their copout de jour. And now my question: Is it your sense that hammering away at this blatant hypocrisy will help Democrats win Senate campaigns in swing states, or is safeguarding a strong judiciary too "inside the Beltway" an issue to matter to independent voters?

Will the Stone-sentencing controversy help Senate Democrats knock off Senate Republicans in swing states like Colorado or Arizona or Maine or North Carolina? 

I don't know, but it's a question I'm pondering too. Yesterday Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) went to the Senate floor to talk about this, and he made sure to make the connection from Roger Stone to Trump firing impeachment witnesses to vulnerable Senate Republicans acquitting him a week ago.

"Senate Republicans voted to excuse President Trump’s abuses of power," he said. "They voted to abdicate the constitutional authority of Congress to check an overreaching executive. Senate Republicans now own this crisis, and they are responsible for every new abuse of power President Trump commits."

My educated guess is that these races will be decided based on who gets the most voters for their side to turn up and vote. Is this a motivating factor for Democrats? Are there independents sick of Trump's controversies who feel like this is the last straw? To the extent that's the case, pointing the finger at Senate Republicans as enabling him could be a smart strategy. But I just don't know for sure what will resonate with voters right now. 

How does Amy poll with African Americans? Now that she's got some momentum, it's an important question!

About as well as Buttigieg. It sets up a very interesting dynamic: The 2nd and 3rd place finishers do very poorly with black voters, and Bernie did HORRENDOUSLY with them in 2016. He's doing better now, which suggests maybe 2016 was as much about the alternative being a Clinton, but it does suggest that this very important constituency is very much up in the air.

Likelihood that Don Trump Jr. runs for the presidency in 2024 to succeed his father?

The Washington Post's Carlos Lozada wrote about this last month in his review of Donald Trump Jr.'s book, "Triggered," which Lozada wrote read like a "preview of a possible Donald Trump Jr. 2024 presidential campaign."

It is true that much of the Republican Party is loyal to President Trump. Less clear is whether that loyalty continues if Trump loses in 2020.

Likelihood that Trump orders Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman to be court-martialed for disloyalty? Would the relevant Army officers obey the order, or disobey claiming it was an illegal order?

I doubt he'll ever do it, but I would never put it past him. This is mostly about sending a message to others who might testify against him or raise concerns privately. Actually following through would be extremely fraught. 

Did the Iowans know something about her that NH didn't?

Or, maybe you meant to ask it the other way around -- what did New Hampshire voters see that Iowans didn't? At least, that's the way I'm going to answer it.

I was on the ground in New Hampshire, and I immediately knew Klobuchar had the potential for a good night. A number of voters told me they liked her and Joe Biden, but they felt like she had less baggage and a more diverse worldview than Biden. Volunteers for her campaign said she was always in people's top three or four, and then her closing argument at Friday's debate, just days before people voted, where she talked about empathy, closed the deal for them.

For the last year, it was "Warren vs. Sanders - Which will take the Ultra-Progressive Voters"? But it turned out Bernie already had his army in Iowa and NH and Young Elizabeth was closer to Beth in "Little Women" than a Nominee. She won most of her debate appearances. Was her message bad? Was her Organization not as Organic? Did voters worry about her Senate seat? Did she ever have a chance?

Well, she's not dead yet ... But I'd say that the lane she occupied overlapped with more popular candidates. Many on the left were already Team Bernie. And her wonky, academic nature that so many found attractive is also something that Buttigieg possessed. I think the demo that she was most popular with was simply not large enough to take her to the top of the polls in Iowa and NH. And she doesn't seem popular enough with the other groups she needs to win.

Collins was quoted ""The president should not have gotten involved,", when will a reporter ask if that is what she meant by him learning his lesson?

She was asked, and she totally ignored the question.

I'm going with black women for 2020. Aside from individual discussions do we have to wait until SC? Is Bloomberg's increase real?

According to the most recent Quinnipiac poll, it seems real nationally. And will likely continue to be considering his resources.

Regarding the story a couple of days ago that essentially said the Democratic hopefuls were at each other's throats, do you see a path to unity? I'm scared to death that supporters of candidates who do not get the nomination (particularly Sanders supporters, but also Warren and maybe others) will refuse to unite behind the eventual nominee. And I'm just blown away by the fact that anyone could lose sight of the main goal: voting Trump out.

I think it's mostly just a concern with Sanders supporters, who voted in decent numbers for Trump in 2016. These kinds of attacks, otherwise, are just how primaries are handled.

Is Deval Patrick at the top of the list of potential VPs? It seems like he wanted to run for president, but waited in deference to his wife. Now that she supports a run...

It's possible! I think the VP is likely going to be a person from a historically marginalized group -- a person of color, a woman or a member of the LGBT community. But that all depends on who the nominee is.

I'm one of those moderates who would love to support Amy Klobuchar. But decent people really should treat people that work for them (staffers, waiters, etc.) with respect. The stories of her berating staff because of the unforgivable sin of forgetting eating utensils seems to be just the tip of the iceburg. She reminds me on a Navy Captain I once saw who had a Navy Lieutenant whose sole job seemed to be to get coffee and water for him. I can't imagine that is what the Lieutenant thought he signed up for when he arrived at the Naval Academy.

Your question raises a lot more questions for me about Klobuchar's future: If she rises in the polls after New Hampshire, will she get more scrutiny from her opponents? And if so, will stories of her being difficult to her staff be one of them? And if so, does that matter? Does how she treat her staff matter to her voters? Is it a gendered attack? I don't have answers to those questions yet, and I suspect there aren't easy answers to many of them.

What sort of epithet do you think Donald Trump is likely to hang on Amy Klobuchar, now that she's done well in the NH primary? Her height? Hair? Face? Unusual last name? I can't believe he'll let her go unscathed.

What Trump is most effective at is being a general in the culture wars. And I think the fact that Klobuchar is simply a woman will be enough to cause discomfort among some Trump supporters who believe that America was at its greatest -- culturally speaking -- 50 years ago.

Does Stone get a longer sentence in prison, so that Judge Amy Berman Jackson can prove that she isn't cowed by Trump and Barr? And if he does, does he appeal on the basis that she just did that to prove a point?

This does apply a certain amount of pressure on her, and maybe that seeps into your subconscious. But I'm not sure sure such an appeal would have any chance, unless she said something to substantiate that argument.

The chair, Troy Price, resigned. Is there anything else the party can do to salvage its reputation after the caucus debacle?

Keep its head down and hope that people forget/move on to other things. There is going to be a healthy debate about whether Iowa should stay first. I think probably the best thing they could do to buy some time is to make it a primary.

Isn't the population about 75% around Las Vegas? How desperate will the candidates be to travel to Elko, Mesquite, Sparks, and Pahrump?

Hullo, former correspondent for the Las Vegas Sun here.

Yes, the Nevada population is centered in the south of the state, in Las Vegas. And that's where most Democratic voters are, too. (There is a bellwether county for the state up north, but that's more pertinent for the general election.)

So, yeah, I think it's fair to say that most candidates will spend their time in the Las Vegas area and surrounding suburbs. (Though Buttigieg has found success campaigning in more rural areas in Iowa and New Hampshire.) There's one huge Vegas-based get the frontrunners want: An endorsement from the Culinary Union, the state's largest union and an absolute machine at organizing volunteers and voters for its chosen candidate. On the night Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) won New Hampshire, they made it clear they don't like him for his Medicare for all proposal.

Dear Fix team, If Biden and Warren are still a distant 4th and 5th after Super Tuesday and Bernie is still the front runner, would either of them drop out and endorse either Klobuchar or Mayor Pete to try to stop Bernie?

If they are 4th or 5th after Super Tuesday, there is simply no path to victory. The bigger question is if he's still far back after SC, does Biden drop out? It might be more because he wouldn't have a chance than that he wanted to hurt Sanders, but it would still be significant.

Where are they now and how are they doing? Jeff Sessions, Tom Price, Rick Perry etc. The right wing Trumpests that hitched their wagon to his star - better or worse off?

Jeff Sessions is running for his old seat and hugging Trump (but still having a tough time of it in the primary). 

Trump is likely to pardon Stone and Flynn. What about Manafort?

I'd say less likely than Stone and Flynn -- given the offenses involved and the lesser personal connection between him and Trump -- but still distinctly possible.

Given the unsettled nature of the Democratic race, which (if any) former candidate is kicking him or herself the most for dropping out and not staying in until at least Super Tuesday?

One irony of the Democratic presidential primary is that the most diverse candidate field in history will likely ultimately nominate a white candidate, as my colleague Philip Bump wrote about in October.

And given the difficulties some candidates have had making inroads with black candidates, some have questioned whether candidates like Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) should have stayed in the race longer.

Look at how Trump treats his staff, and so why should it matter what Klobuchar did or didn't do?

I think that's a fair point.

The Post's Colby Itkowitz mulled this over when the reports about Klobuchar being famously hard on her staff came out.

But maybe she sees an opportunity to turn this into a strength: All they got on me is I demand a lot from my staff?

Legal analysts say that it was the charge of witness tampering that kicked Stone's sentence into a higher strata. The witness he was supposed to have tampered with says that it was not the case. Does this new information change the sentence?

It's true that witness tampering carries a much larger sentence -- a 20-year max rather than the 5 years for lying.

Even if Credico says he wasn't tampered with, though, that doesn't matter. Stone was convicted, and I'm not sure Credico is credible enough to cast any doubt on Stone's guilt.

If you step back from individual candidates, it looks like New Hampshire says that center/left candidates are more desired than progressives. Just count the votes that went to Bernie and Liz versus those that Buttigieg, Klobuchar and Biden accumulated. In 2016, it was a binary choice and Bernie cleaned up. But this time, if you see it as a binary choice between moderates and progressives, the positions have switched in favor of moderates. Has Bernie had his day?

I get that this is a tempting framing, but voters don't always break down so nearly in such "lanes." Plus, Buttigieg seems to straddle the lanes, doing well with liberal voters and moderate ones. Sanders and Warren rely much more on liberals, and Klobuchar and Biden do much better with moderates, but voters will often like candidates from multiple lanes. Therefore you can't necessarily just add up the votes. And as I said, Buttigieg's broad base complicates things.

William Barr is a lawyer. Has his conduct in attempting to influence sentences reached the level of offense that could get him disbarred as a lawyer?

While it is not clear whether Barr would ever be disbarred, some have called for this:

  • There is a House resolution to disbar him
  • Rep. Bill Pascrell Jr. (D-N.J.) has called for the DC and Virginia bar associations to disbar him
  • The New York City Bar Association called for Barr to recuse himself from the Ukraine probe

Even if Dems retain the House, flip the Senate, & win the WH, how do we fix all the broken norms, institutions & govt. departments that have lost career professionals, scientists, & experts? How do we re-establish trust in those institutions, norms, and govt. depts.? How do our allies trust us again? How does the global community - governments friends and foes alike or private/corporate entities - take us seriously and/or trust us again? Seems like Trump & his cronies have slimed our democracy and our reputation for the foreseeable future. Or am I missing something?

So you're asking some pretty existential questions that I don't think anyone has an answer to. But they're thinking about it.

In particular, you do hear Democratic presidential candidates talk about this a lot, sometimes as an attack on former vice president Joe Biden, who has said that with Trump out of office, things can return to normal. His competitors for the moderate lane, particularly former South Bend, Ind., mayor Pete Buttigieg, say that's a fundamental misunderstanding of the underlying problems with democracy that helped give rise to Trump.

Bloomberg or Trump?

Vermin Supreme

I'm 67, have voted consistently since 18 (I was in the first group to vote after the age change), and am an admitted yellow dog Democrat. Although I like Biden and Bernie, I really think it's time to step aside and let the 'young folks' take their chance in politics. Our age, and older, have had our time and have done what we can. It's time to have the next generation(s) have a go. If either Biden or Bernie make the nomination, I'll vote for him. But I'd rather have a younger person get the nomination...

I've heard this from other voters, too, so you're not alone in your sentiment. Biden's and Sanders's age can't be separated from Buttigieg's knocks on them, that they represent the past and we need a fresh face in American politics leading the way for Democrats to beat Trump. 

If Barr is disbarred, does that mean he has to quit the DoJ? Or can he continue to carry Trump's water without a law license?

1. He won't be disbarred.

2. You don't have to have a law license to be attorney general. This came up a bit when Joe Arpaio was being rumored for AG. The law only says you must be "learned in the law," which could be read pretty broadly.

Would Warren be in the running for VP?

For someone like Buttigieg, maybe. I'm not sure I see it with anyone else. 

I cannot even deal with all this stuff about Roger Stone, the Tweets, the DOJ. Ugh. (I mean, really, he'll pardon him, so what's the problem. Ha.) So the Dem primaries are in full swing, there is a VERY LONG way to go yet, and it's looking like a shake-up. (maybe) Until we go South. And Super Tuesday. Have any of the candidates (still standing) said anything about how they plan to Heal, Unite and repair the relationships of the US? Internal and global? I think Sanders is too far left to unite the Dems - is Klobuchar up the challenge of running against the Tweeter-in-Chief? Buttigieg? I think those may be the most viable of options - or should we not count out Biden and Bloomberg yet?

Thanks for reading the newsletter! (Where, for those of you who didn't get it/get to it yet, I explained the Roger Stone-sentencing controversy.)

The answer to your question: Every single candidate talks about what you're asking about, how to heal the country after this divisive time and Trump's erosion of the democratic norms. Biden goes particularly hard on how he's going to help the U.S. restore its relationship with its allies (saying stuff like "I know Vladimir Putin and he doesn't like me", more or less). Sanders and Warren talk about how they're going to reform government by getting business out of it ("corporate greed" and such), mainly in health care and by taxing those businesses and wealthy more. Buttigieg talks in big, expansive language about tackling all the problems facing America in a post-Trump world, and Klobuchar talks about empathy and how she truly sees the voter trying to make rent. 

sorry if this is a repeat / I lost my last question and wasn't sure if it was submitted before I was finished. how much of Amy K & Mayor Pete's low support among African Americans is due to this being their first national exposure (in contrast to Bernie and Biden in particular) and not having the paid media to introduce themselves (like Bloomberg and Steyer), and how much is due to the specific incidents that get the most mention (role as a prosecutor, dismissal of the police chief)? If it is the former, then there's room to grow, but if it is the latter, then the low numbers might start to be a cap. Are the negatives cherry picked incidents, or are they representative of the body of their work?

They both are going up against candidates with much longer relationships with black voters and therefore higher name recognition. So that definitely works against them.

There is room to grow. But the question is there time to grow. Can they convince enough black voters to support them by South Carolina or Super Tuesday? That will be the test.

Why isn't there any recent polling on 2020 presidential? What determines whether and where polls are done?

Part of the reason is that Nevada is NOTORIOUSLY difficult to poll. They could poll, but it's not clear how much the polls would be worth.

 

Have always loved him, but in every debate he's just stated what he's done in the past, like he's reciting his resume. Yes I get it, you are experienced, but what are you *going* to do? But I also agree with the previous poster about certain candidates being too old. Presidenting is really hard and better left to the next generation. Take a look at what's there now.

In some ways, Biden has the problem that Kamala Harris had: It's not clear what his campaign is about. To the extent he has a message, it's about getting things done and electability, but those are abstract, and the latter is fading as an asset.

Dear Amber, When do we get the analysis on NH voters and who they voted for?

Here! 

And maybe I'll delve more into this in today's 5-Minute Fix newsletter.

I ask because President Trump got <only> 86 percent.

President Trump more than doubled former president Barack Obama's 2012 New Hampshire primary vote total this week, but as my colleague Philip Bump wrote this week, this is partly because most incumbent presidents do not bother trying to boost turnout in a primary contest they are sure to win.

Whether the primary contest turnout for Trump translates to a general election advantage for him is not clear.

But notably, former Massachusetts governor William Weld, who is challenging Trump in the Republican primary, picked up nine percent of the vote in the New Hampshire Republican primary this week.

As a voter squarely in the middle I am getting really nervous about Bernie. It feels so much like a repeat of the 2016 Republican primary. The Republican party was afraid of upsetting Trumps voters, treated him with kid gloves and just handed him the primary and the party itself. The Democratic party doesn't seem like it has any power to stop Bernie either. I think Trump is awful, but honestly it's going to be the devil you know versus a possibly more frightening option.

Yesterday, I believe Post writer E.J. Dionne wrote that Sanders supporters were too small to control the Democratic Party but too large to ignore. I imagine candidates right of him but left of the GOP are going to try all they can to make sure he is not the nominee. They were effective last time. This time could be different.

Would Trump do it before Stone has to go to prison, or would he be more likely to wait a few (or several) months, e.g., after the November election?

I'd hazard a guess that this is part of the reason Flynn's team has drawn things out so much -- they know the odds of a pardon are greater after the election.

With Stone, there's a real chance Trump does it before the election, based upon what he's doing now. He seems to be setting the stage and floating a trial balloon, in many ways.

I'm 65 and I agree. Let younger people lead. Hopefully they'll do a better job. They certainly should have a chance to shape our future. Personally, as a Boomer, I think a lot of what's wrong with America right now can be laid at the feet of my generation. Some of us have done some good things, but a lot of the truly ugly stuff that happening right now is thanks to us.

I heard Michael Bennet, the Colorado senator who dropped out after New Hampshire on Tuesday, talk about this, too in a  way. He was saying that his generation risk being the first one to leave it in a worse-off state for the next, and tied that to his public service and why he was running for president.

Why does he have no support among black voters? Bloomberg with his stop and frisk policy polls better with that sector. No one seems to want to examine if the fact that Mayor Pete is gay is a death kiss with black voters.

Buttigieg is still largely unknown with black voters. Even many of those who have heard of him, prefer a candidate with a longer history of working on issues of importance to black Americans. And the frequent headlines about how poorly Buttigieg has responded to issues affecting black residents in South Bend has not been much help.

As the primaries move to Nevada and South Carolina with more voters of color, do you think Pete Buttigieg can relate to these voters by discussing oppression/discrimination/etc. he has experienced as a gay man? Has he talked about this before? Would this likely be well received by the voters?

Buttigieg actually spends a lot of time addressing these issues. However, his crowds rarely include sizable numbers of black people, so it's hard for him to get the message to them that way. It will be interesting to see what attempts he makes to connect with black voters in black spaces in S.C.

What went wrong? She allegedly had a great ground game in Iowa and should have derived some benefit from being from a state neighboring NH? And where does she go from here?

Yeah, this is a good question to ask. And I don't have immediate answers. She was from the state next door, with many voters in her media market. 

The one thing I can try to point to is how she's starting to back away some from her unabashed liberal proposals to being the unity candidate, the one in the center between Sanders and the moderates. I just feel like that's a very narrow lane to be in -- are there enough voters there for her to pick up? And you have to walk that line perfectly, so it's tricky.

Ignoring Iowa low turnout. What is your analysis on turnout on NH and why. I think I read that the NH governor thought it would be 280,000 (was 2008 a high of over 300,000?)

Turnout came in about where it was in 2008, which was a record at 287,000.

Three points:

1. It's better than Iowa, which had disappointing turnout for Democrats.

2. Tying the record sounds better than it is. There was no contest to speak of on the GOP side this year -- unlike 2008 -- and New Hampshire has an open primary. That meant that all the independent voters had basically one race if they wanted to affect things. They'd probably have hoped for higher turnout.

3. While the raw number of votes is similar to 2008, the population has grown in the last 12 years. So the percentage is lower than 2008 -- I think I saw 26% vs. 29%.

The Medal of Freedom winner is now going after Buttigieg about his sexuality with "who's more manly" type comments, etc. As a gay American I'm trying to restrain myself here, but if it was Trump and Buttigieg in the end, how do you think this would play out? Thinking of optics, you have a young and fit former member of the military up against an overweight 73 year old who is addicted to spray tanning and who avoided the draft. Nevertheless, given Trump's tendencies to go for the very lowest with name-calling and so forth, I fear that it could quickly become ugly. What do you think we'd see?

I honestly believe Buttigieg would struggle to get the numbers needed to turnout to defeat Trump. But I do not believe that would be solely or even mostly because he is gay -- although homophobia will be a factor. The reality is many voters on the left would prefer a more experienced candidate to lead their party. Or someone more progressive.

NH Voter here...I've never once been asked about my vote or reason for it after voting. Nor has my wife, nor anyone else I've asked. Where do these exit polls come from? Are they real?

They are real. The sample voters after leaving the polls, but they don't sample every voter -- or even close to it. As with all polls, it relies upon a representative sample of voters.

I also hear the people the same age as Sen. Sanders or former Vice President Biden say they want somebody younger, yet I rarely if ever see interviews with people either Pete Buttigieg's age or younger pointing to his age as a winning factor for their support and if polling is to believe, he has next-to-nothing in terms of support among young people so how come?

It has been said that Buttigieg is an older person's ideal young person. He does better with people much older than him than he does with young people. And Sanders is doing great with young people. Identity politics matter but not always. Most young voters want someone who shares their worldview more than someone who doesn't but is a member of their age group.

Has there been any polling or reporting on African Americans, or people of color generally, that might suggest the kind of white candidate they would support if Biden were out of the race?

I don't think so but the most recent poll from Quinnipiac gives some insight on where black voters are today.

From a younger person to those older folks wanting some young blood. Nice idea, but to be clear, we REALLY don't want Pete Buttigieg.

Sharing! This is clearly a big conversation. We'll have to have more of these conversations about age and how it compares/contrasts with who supports the presidential candidate.

How can the media say Bernie "won" the New Hampshire primary when he tied Buttigieg in the delegate count? Isn't the delegate count the only relevant number?

To secure the Democratic presidential nomination, a candidate needs to receive 1,991 delegates. So far, former South Bend, Ind., mayor Pete Buttigieg, who is leading the delegate race with 23, has earned just over one percent of the total delegates he will need to secure the nomination.

The delegate math was already complicated and is about to get more complicated, as my colleague Philip Bump recently wrote.

This is why Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) is in second place in the delegate count despite winning the popular vote in the Iowa and New Hampshire contests.

So while the delegate count is ultimately the number that matters, it is notable which candidates are receiving the most votes in the Democratic primary contests.

Thanks for all the great questions, everyone. Have a great Friday and weekend, and we'll see you next Thursday -- on the eve of the Nevada caucuses.

-The Fix team

In This Chat
Amber Phillips
Amber Phillips writes about politics for The Fix. She was previously the one-woman D.C. bureau for the Las Vegas Sun and has reported from Boston and Taiwan.
Aaron Blake
Aaron Blake is senior political reporter for The Fix. A Minnesota native, he has also written about politics for the Minneapolis Star Tribune and The Hill newspaper.
Eugene Scott
Eugene Scott writes about identity politics for The Fix. He was recently a fellow at the Georgetown University Institute of Politics. And prior to joining the Post, he was a breaking news reporter at CNN Politics.
JM Rieger
JM Rieger is the video editor for The Fix, covering national politics. He joined The Washington Post in 2018. Previously, Rieger worked as a video producer covering national politics for HuffPost. He began his career as a video editor covering Congress for Roll Call.
Recent Chats
  • Next: