The Fix Live

Jun 24, 2016

The Fix's Chris Cillizza discussed the latest in political news. Join his live chat every Friday at 11 a.m.

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BREXIT

Let's go!

If this xenophobia is a worldwide phenomenon, is it really a reason to believe Trump's chances are much better in the election?

I think the desire to reject elites, to retreat within more comfortable geographic and personal borders and to lash out at political correctness is not a phenomenon unique to Britain or the US.

As for whether what happened in Britain improves Trump's chances of winning, I don't think so. He has the same chances; we may just be more aware of what they are now.

You're on the clock!

I KNOW!

I realize it's usually Worst Week in Washington, but can we have a special nomination for David Cameron?

Worst Week in Wolverhampton. 

Trump supporters say there's nothing wrong with him being in Scotland...supporting the efforts of his children. Haven't other presidential candidates taken time off the campaign trail to do other things?

I agree with them. I see no issue with Trump spending 48 hours in Scotland.

And, whether accidental or intentional, the fact that he was there when Britain voted to leave the EU was a good thing for him.

Was that his first news conference? Like, ever?

Er, no.

He does them all the time.

Unlike Hillary Clinton who hasn't held a formal press conference in more than 200 days.

Which of the following seems most right, and please expand on why: 1) Brexit has no applicability in our analysis of the American general election 2) Brexit parallels some of the trends that led to the nomination of Donald Trump, but is of only minor applicability in the general because of Democratic advantages with the composition of the electorate 3) Brexit parallels some of the trends that led to the nomination of Donald Trump, but Trump can't stop alienating voters long enough to take advantage 4) Brexit is a canary in the coal mine, and those who deny the viability of Trump do so at their own peril

I think #2.

I wrote it about it here.

Donald Trump is going to be the next president isn't he? This is not a bad dream, I am going to wake up in November and he will be the president. If we survived Grover Cleveland, we can survive the Donald?

Brexit suggests that there IS some level of non-vocal group who supports positions like those espoused by Trump that polls are missing.

I am not convinced that means Trump is a lock to be the next president but it does suggest that what he has tapped into is both lasting and powerful.

What would be the repercussions if, as expected, Aaron and Amber vote to leave The Fix Union. Would you have to resign? Would your currency plummet? Do you even have any currency?

You are going to have to kill me to take my hands from the Iron Throne. Come at me.

A conservative recently won the election for mayor of Rome. Other conservative candidates are popular throughout Europe. How much of this do you think is due to immigration?

A whole lot.  Look at what is going on in Germany.

Admit it, the chat was pushed back to 1 pm because like me you were up to the wee hours watching the BBC. Mesmerizing.

His fired campaign manager says there are only four names on the short list. Could it really be as simple as Christie, Gingrich, Fallin, and Sessions or Corker? Not the strongest list, but who do you think would aid Trump the most?

Absolutely it could be.  The GOP convention is in a month.  Winnowing the possibilities is a necessity at this point.

Word is that Patrick Murphy (who will be Rubio's opponent) lied about being a CPA when he wasn't licensed and also lied about leading clean-up efforts in the Gulf of Mexico. How much will this hurt him?

It's bad. Potentially REALLY bad.

David Cameron. His loss is so great, it can cross The Pond.

HA! 

Worst Week in Watford.

US Rep Chaka Fattah (D - Pa) has been convicted on 22 counts (bribes masked by money laundering). Since he was often seen on TV, isn't it strange that this news is not being covered?

Well, he already lost the seat in a Democratic primary. So, he's on his way out. And he formally resigned this week.

I think it has to be Chaka Fattah, but this week had lots of candidates.

Not a good week for Chaka. I have someone else in mind. A Florida Man...

Was it a press conference or an advertisement for his golf courses? And some his responses were so bizarre that one wonders if actually knows anything about the world around him outside of a piece of land's value for golf or other development.

You should join me in annotating it! Here!

The AP's review of Clinton's calendar found at least 75 meetings with political donors, Clinton Foundation contributors and corporate interests were either not recorded or had the details scrubbed....raising new questions about how Clinton and her inner circle handled government records during her State Dept tenure. This is a pretty big deal, right?

Surely.

It plays into a broader problem for her: A lack of transparency that fuels the idea that she is either hiding something or simply not someone to be trusted.

I still think the State Department Inspector General's report was a HUGE deal for Clinton. And not in a good way. 

First thing-did your turn on live chat? Also I've noticed that what we have come to call the elites still don't believe voters in Britain actually meant to vote they way they voted. Stories about how Google searches are being done about what leaving the EU means that voting was done in ignorance. Never a thought that the people doing the searches are the ones that voted remain. It reminds me of Trump winning state after state. Always another reason than voters voted. The chasm between those with power and those without is growing. What will it take to get the people that govern to see the governed? An actual Trump win?

If you have ever sat in a focus group in a swing state, you are 100% certain that most soft partisans make up their minds on who to vote for based on things that are totally outside of an understanding of issues.

How does it change? The consequences of one of these information-free decisions bites real people in their wallets and/or everyday lives.

Did you see his news conference this morning? The EU is breaking up and all he wants to talk about is how nice his suites are! I mean come on, man!

Did I see it?  MAN.

KEEP CALM AND DIVORCE ON

I'd prefer: "For British Eyes Only

Are they worth anything anymore?

Polls: Can't live with 'em, can't live without 'em? 

Amirite?

What effect do you think this will have on Trump's supporters - will it fire them up even more?

Yes. And it will convince them they are right and everyone who says he can't win or won't win is wrong.

Could a candidate who has replaced Trump at the convention have a real chance of winning in November or would he be doomed to failure in a general?

Doomed to failure. Look, Trump won fair and square! He got 13.3 million votes. He won all over the country. He won when the race was crowded and when it was a one on one against Ted Cruz. (Sorry John Kasich!)

There's just no reasonable way to keep Trump from the nomination while insisting that the will of the Republican voter is being respected.

and do we have the same issues with counting here? Do you know any details? Was turn out higher or lower than they expected? Did they properly identify the demographics of the turn out? Did the polls assume too many people with only cell phones who can't be properly polled (and is that even an issue in the UK) and would vote stay? Because predicting 52/48 stay and getting 52/48 leave is a big difference. Is it worse than the confidence of the Mitt Romney pollsters? I can't remember the actual numbers on those.

Good question. Read this.

Where are you posting? Who is your soundtrack? What are you drinking? And how much has your 401(k) tanked already?

WaPo world HQ

Listening to the re-issue of My Morning Jacket's "It Still Moves" which is still such a good album.

Diet Coke.  Got to stay in beach shape to keep up with Mrs. Fix.

What's a 401(k)?

On a scale of 1-100, how much fear does the Leave vote on Brexit strike in the hearts of the Democrats vis-a-vis unexpected results on the top of the ballot in November?

64

So, just another slow week in the office?

UNREAL

There are no more slow weeks. I realized this about 3 years ago. Downtime in politics isn't a thing.

And no need to worry about Donald Trump. You all have this sorted, I'm sure.

I assume you are more focused on the match tomorrow with the Gareth Bales!

David Cameron, the Prime Minister himself, took a highly complex issue like this and put it to a Yes/No vote?? WHY? Don't leave something like this "to the will of the people," just lead them through it!

GIANT mistake by Cameron. And to get SO heavily on the "remain" side.  And it cost him his job.

Can I cast a vote for "humanity"?

Always!

Helps Trump - right? Does it go so far as to appear to improve his chances of winning in and thus encourage more to open their wallet since he's now a better bet?

Like I said above, I don't know if it changes his actual chances but it definitely changes the perception of his chances among people who thought he had no chance.

 

Sure, Paul Ryan may have won the battle of the House sit-in -- but didn't he lose the war in terms of more voters' hearts and minds? After all, the Democrats were led by now-revered civil rights giant John Lewis, plus they managed to get their video aired to the public via new media!

Nah

Ryan won kudos both within his membership and the party base for not giving in.

And the idea that any large (or even medium) number of Democrats are going to lose their seats because of this is ridiculous and not borne out by what we know about the gun issue in modern campaigns.

But I looked at the comments after your "Trump Contributes $50 Mill" column, and I found the kind of relaxed joviality that obtained in the Boston dugout during game 7 of the 2004 AL Championship Series. Are we again in a period when we think Trump can't win, and we can stop worrying? Because we've been there before.

I am certainly not.

I am done underestimating Trump and his appeal.

If Tim Kaine were picked as VP and the Clinton-Kaine ticket won, who would McAuliffe pick as his replacement? Bobby Scott? Mark Herring? Gerry Connolly? Don Beyer? Tom Perriello? Somebody from the General Assembly?

I think Perriello.

And I just posted something on the Clinton veepstakes! Read it!

Trump's attack on Clinton for not releasing transcripts of her private addresses to Wall Street opens a truck-sized opening for Clinton. She should tell Trump that she'll be happy to release the transcripts if Trump will release his tax returns. Think Trump would bite?

Yes. This is the essence of Trump's problem.

He appears to have found the right message against Clinton. But he is a such a flawed messenger to deliver it. 

Read this.

Here's a compeltely out-of-the-box thought for Hillary's VP choice, a moderate Republican. If one were acceptable on several key issues (open to some gun limitations, moderate on abortion, etc) that could convince a number of other Republicans to leave Trump. I realize there's no chance of this, but are there any Republicans you think could fit this mold?

Or a military man along the lines of Mike Mullen, a former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff

We currently have a black president, and there's a pretty good chance we might have women president next. Do you think we'll ever have a single President, or does the potential problems it would bring make it impossible(i.e. family values voters upset, gossip about the President dating, etc.

We've had one!

James Buchanan was a lifelong bachelor!

While I assumed GB would stay in the EU, I'm not surprised after living away from a major city there. What completely amazed me this morning was the article on the Washington Post highlighting the top Google search terms in GB today-#2 is What is the EU. I guess the U.S. has good company in uninformed voters. Did they really not know what they were voting for?

If this surprises you....

Why did you guys hit Bernie Sanders with 16 negative stories in 14 hours? How is that fair reporting? And why has the Washington Post given Hillary Clinton so a huge pass on her foundations foreign donors while she was in office?

1. I don't count

2. "Negative" is almost always in the eye of the beholder

3. Bernie Sanders has lost the primary.  It ended 10 days ago in DC.

Trump says the Brits have spoken through their votes and their votes should be respected. Is that the right approach?

I thought his approach on that was a fascinating window into how he thinks.

His basic point was that Cameron should resign because he didn't read the public mood on the issue right. And that Boris Johnson should be the next prime minister because he did.

That's a very different definition of leadership than many politicians have. Or at least say they have.

Until Weds I was thinking Trump was a lock for a 3rd week in a row, but I am now up the in the air if the House shenanigans led to a late takeover?

Oh he isn't even in the top 5 this week...

Sounds as though Trump is essentially advocating the secession by some states from the Union. A new Confederacy???

I didn't take it that way. I think he was saying that what made America America is being lost and the only way to save it is to elect him president.

Trump didn't know who Boris Johnson was. Huh??

Props to the Cavs for winning.

Props to JR Smith for never wearing a shirt between then and now.

My vote goes to Corey Lewandowski.

Reportedly getting paid $500K from CNN. So not bad.

Who wins it: Argentina or Chile?

Argentina. Messi, when healthy, cannot be stopped. Or contained. Or partially contained.

I mean... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YNO9TdGHw5Q

I was looking forward to head-to-head chats today. I see you flinched.

It was like the Strasburg-Kershaw showdown earlier this week. I got a back strain at 11. Better now though.

Just saying...

WORST WEEK IN WESTMINSTER

Wow, over 200 days from a press conference. How many news outlets has she banned?

Fair enough.

Trump in Scotland - he didn't acquit himself very well, did he?

OR DID HE

Shouldn't journalists have to disclose who they vote for...as it could be seen as a conflict of interest?

Happy to do so. I don't vote.

Though I disagree with the premise of your question.

If Messi says he will become US citizen and play for USMNT conditioned upon you eating a quart of mayonnaise what would you do?

In a second

Klinsman

Or Wondo. Or John Brooks. Or Michael Bradley. 

We were so outclassed.

What position would Jurgen Klinsmann best suited for in a Trump cabinet?

Secretary of False Optimism

With apologies to Colin Powell.

Damn that is good.

Alright folks. That's all for this week!

See you next Friday. Same bat time. (Maybe.) Same bat channel.

Chris

In This Chat
Chris Cillizza
Chris Cillizza is the managing editor of PostPolitics and he writes "The Fix," a politics blog for The Washington Post. He also covers the White House for the newspaper and website. Chris has appeared as a guest on NBC, CBS, ABC, MSNBC, Fox News Channel and CNN to talk politics. He lives in Virginia with his wife and sons.
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