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Even though today has to be a dismal day for Democrats and their allies, it would be my guess that the recall effort will change the tenor of politics in Wisconsin. Already, Gov. Walker has talked about reaching out to Democrats and trying to be more inclusive. That is consistent with the views he expressed during the recall campaign when he offered no apologies for his policies, but said that he should have telegraphed them more. So there is that effect. And it is likely to resonate nationally. For Republicans, it seems, that if they are not emboldened, they can at least feel that the public does not totally reject their ideas. And it was hard to think that standing among the throngs that flocked to Madison last winter during the height of the debate over Walker's budget repair bill.

No real surprises, as far as I'm concerned.  I think most people saw Kapanke as the most vulnerable Republican, followed by Hopper, and and that Pasche had an outside chance of beating Darling.  So, I think things played out as expected.  One sort of surprising result was how close the Olson/Clark contest was.  Olson hadn't really faced much competition before and this race proved to be pretty tight.  One thing to keep in mind here, though, is that Clark out-spent Olson by a fairly wide margin.

No surprises here either. Although this affirms the Republican position, the elections were close and the Democrats were not far from reaching their goal. What would have been striking would have been a blowout in either direction.

I think the state Democrats and aligned groups will try to recall Walker.  All indications are that they will try to time it so the recall will coincide with the 2012 presidential election, the theory being that higher turnout will help them.

That makes sense to me. But it also seems that after this enormous recall effort--millions in contributions; countless volunteer hours--it is going to be hard to muster the same level of energy to fuel a new recall. Plus, the political landscape will no doubt shift, putting issues other than Walker's governing style on voters' minds.   

I guess it's important to keep in mind that the task before recall advocates was pretty monumental.  It strikes me that Democrats and allied groups did about as well as could reasonably be expected.  It would have been a substantial and somewhat unexpected feat to win the Darling seat, and even more unexpected to pick off any of the others where Democrats lost.  So, I guess part of the issue in terms of "spirits" might be related to expectations.  I'm not sure how reassuring that is...

Indeed. It also, I think, reveals a conundrum that lies at the heart of  politics, particularly when you talk about legislative and congressional races. You always hear about how disgusted voters are with lawmakers, or the political climae. But they rarely muster the same distaste for their lawmaker.  In something like a state Senate race, the nuances of a politican's views and style often survive the caricatures seen in ads. So voters in races like this, I think, tend to vote for more for individuals than party. It seems like 2012 will turn on the state of the economy and who voters blame for its condition. And while President Obama has made an effort to appeal to the middle and seek compromise, he also has allowed the GOP to set the terms of the debate. He has even adopted some of their talking points, as he talks about a nation having to live within its means, ect. But he may have trouble reconciling his new-found focus on deficits with his reluctance to produce or embrace a plan that would cut the nation's long-term debt. And, it seems, that provides an opening for the Republican candidate, whoever that ends up being. 

November 2012 is fifteen months away.  I'd be careful about reading too much into yesterday's results, or anything else happening right now, as a harbinger of thing to come

Again, it is all about what one could reasonably have expected.  From that perspective, Democrats should be glad they got what they got, and Republicans should be glad they didn't do any worse than expected.  Of course, the stakes of holding on to that one extra seat were huge for the Republicans, and the stakes of getting that seat were huge for the Democrats, so from that perspective it is not surprising that Democrats are very disappointed and Republicans are very pleased.

I think that depends on your point of view. For unions, this was an existential fight.  Gov. Walker went not only after their members's collective bargaining rights and money by asking for bigger pension contributions and essentially limiting future raises, but he also constrained unions' ability to collect dues. Other states have made similar moves. The unions had to push back. Public employees are now the heart of organized labor. They also are a mainstay of Democratic support. So, from their point of view, the fight--whatever its cost--was essential.   

Yes, next week's recalls are over Democratic-held seats. So Republicans maintain control of the state Senate. Of course, they also have control of the governship and Assembly. It seems that this would sap some energy from any effort to recall Walker, but we'll see.

Republicans are probably going to focus on defeating Jim Holperin, in the 12 Senate district.  He barely won his last election and is facing off against Kim Simac, founder of Northwoods Patriots, a Tea Party Group.  I think they see this as their chance to get one of the seats back and try to add to the "deflated" mood of state Democrats, potentially influencing the Walker recall efforts.  Right now, Hoperin is spending about twice as much as Simac, though that didn't seem to help Kapanke hold on to his seat.

It would be interesting to see some data on the "ground game" at the precinct level to get a sense of how effective these efforts were.  Based on my own experience living in a Democratic neighbohood in the Darling district, I suspect there were probably effectinve but off-setting effects.  You couldn't swing a dead cat in my neighboorhood without hitting a Pasche canvasser in the last couple of weeks, but there were no Darling canvassers.  I strongly suspect that the exact opposit was true in the north and west suburbs.  so, while the efforts may have been effective, they were also probably off-setting.

Right now, there are hardly any students on campus.  Actually, that may have had some effect in a few of the recall elections yesterday.  With the exception of the Madison campus, most studetns in the UW-system are in-state students, so they could potentially vote in these elections.  However, in those districts with college campuses, most of the students were away for summer break.  I'm not sure which districts this would include, but since there are 14 campuses inthe UW-system, I suspect this had an effect in at least a couple races.

In terms of mood, I would describe our students as more engaged in the last several months than they have been in a long time.

I'm tempted to open a new window and "Google" an answer for you.

Wisconsin is a very middle-of-the-road state, so I suspect Obama is doing about as well here as he is nationwide.  Although Wisconsin went pretty heavily for Obama in 2008, I would expect the race to be somewhat tighter here in 2012, primarily because I think it will be tighter nationwide.  However, as I cautioned above, it is too early to say much about how things will turn out in 2012.