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Actually, the effects of La Nina should be more pronounced as we head into winter...I don't think the October snow is necessarily an appetizer of what to anticipate

This is a good question and one I don't have an immediate answer for.  I suspect any correlation is not strong.

January.  Amounts are really total guesswork, but I don't think it is unreasonable to anticipate a 6-10" storm.

Our winter outlook covers that.  I think near but just below normal but that is a low-medium confidence guess.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/washington-dc-winter-weather-forecast-2011-2012/2011/11/02/gIQAHXChiM_blog.html

We cover that a bit in our winter outlook.  Usually seasonal outlooks rely on a blend of analog years and indices.  I think information from winter's past is certainly integral to any outlook, even if any one year alone is used loosely as a rough guide

We have a bigger spread between the mean and median than most of the cities in the northeast and midwest, which is indicative of what you have observed.  Feast or famine.  I think it is mosly a product of our latitude but also the mountains to our west.  They often "rob" us of good moisture approaching from the west/northwest which is why we usually don't get a lot of nickel and dime events that would give us a more uniform snow composite. 

This may not answer your question directly, but our cold/snow is somewhat dependent on how much the polar/northern jet dips during the winter since we are not expecting a very active southern jet.  Most of the time the northern branches of the jet stream are not conducive to cold snow here, but there are exceptions.  This winter may feature some more exceptions than usual, but I don't expect a cold winter throughout

16.5", precisely ;)

Many/Most TV weather folks are degreed meteorologists and the ones in this area are very good.  They typically know what they are talking about and don't just rip and read the NWS forecasts.

Our seasonal predictions are low confidence.  We did pretty well with the 2009-10 winter, though came nowhere close to predicting the epic amounts.  A moderate el nino and Atlantic blocking pattern is a very good setup for us, and that is what we had.  The signals are a lot more conflicted this winter.

There are some who think we are currently in the early stages of such a period.  I am not sure myself, but I think the tendency toward snowier/colder winters in our backyard is higher over the next several years than it was in say the 90s.

This is not an area in which I am knowledgeable enough to answer you.  My guess is it is a factor, but that there are other factors that drive our weather as well, so not everything can be explained by global warming.  Our sample size of accurate records is only 125-150 years old and satellite data only 60. There will be lots of surprises.  Climatology is organic.

The northeast has been cleaning up the last few winters and I suspect this one will be no different.  I'd suspect Boston will be around normal snowfall, but it should be colder than  normal.

Yes...I think a decent number of storm systems will originate in western Canada.  And yes, I expect a number of Miller B type storms that have a primary low occlude and taken over by a coastal/secondary.  Our latitude is a real challenge for these kind of storms.  They typically develop  bit too far north and/or we dry slot quickly, but not always.  I think we can expect at least one of these kind of storms gives us a "decent" snow this winter.  We really need redevelopment south of Norfolk.  Off the Del Marva or north of there is usually bad for snow lovers here.

5%

2 ways, though there are more.  First would be more blocking than we anticipate which would push the northern stream further south and get us in more of the action that cripples Philly to Boston but leaves us crying.  The other would be a decent early or late season snow.  Say before December 15th and after March 1st.  We are more likely to get favorable storm tracks then, if we can get cold air in place which is always a challenge here outside of the heart of winter.

I suspect it is pretty rare.  I personally am not seeing a brutal winter for Chicago.  Perhaps near/above normal temps and average/above average snow, but I am in the minority.  Most forecasts I am seeing have a cold/very cold winter in your area. 

Wes Junker knows what he is talking about.  Seriously.  Anyone interested in winter weather or just learning more should follow him religiously this winter.

This is a great question as 95-96 was a La Nina that didn't act like one.  If you are a snow lover, easily the best I-95 winter on record.  I am not seeing a 1995-96 repeat.  That was a weak La Nina that followed a very extended period of El Nino/Neutral winters.  Nina should be more of a factor this winter.  Additionally, November 1995 was brutally cold for much of the country and we are not seeing that kind of start to November this year.

I don't think ice is any more or less likely than other winters.  We will see mixed precip events.  We always do, but I don't think a tendency toward a big ice event is evident.

February.  Packs more of a punch (usually) and gives us one more taste of winter before spring comes.  Most like December better though.  It sticks around a lot longer due to sun angle and there is of course the whole holiday season thing.  But I am not picky.  I will take snow anytime I can get it.

That is the trend.  Philly and NYC are the new snow meccas.  I don't see as big a disparity as we have seen in some recent winters, but I still expect Philly and NYC to outperform us.

That is why we record snow and temperatures and don't rely on oral history :)

Jay, I know you are asking because we have seen a freakish number of events fall on this date in the last decade, but I think chances are pretty good of getting our 1st legit snow at lower elevations during the late Novemember, early December window.

January, but that is low confidence.  February is not typically good for us in a La Nina, but there are exceptions.  I think it is 29 days this winter, so maybe it can compete ;)

I am not well versed in this, but there is credible science to back a link.  I think it is running at or above normal so far, but don't quote me on that.