Live Q&As

Republicans try to control damage from fundraising document (Post, March 5)

Fundraising, which is almost always conducted outside the bright light of the media, is a game of extremes.

The truth is that most people who give money to campaigns are base voters who literally loathe the other side.

And so, fundraising appeals tend to be the sort of lowest common denominator stuff that when it happens to go public -- as the RNC document did -- looks decidedly unsavory.

Both sides doing it doesn't make it right though. And, for an RNC already struggling to get back on its feet after a series of self-imposed wounds, the story over the leaked fundraising presentation is not good.

Thanks for the nice comment on the Fix too! I do my best.

Interesting point.

Republicans have to walk a fine line in the runup to the midterms. On the one hand, they have to make donors and activists believe that they can win back the majorities in the House and Senate -- to get the most out of them between now and the fall campaign.

On the other, out of control expectations can be a dangerous thing in politics. Just ask Newt Gingrich who days before his party lost seats in 1998 was predicting gains. That missed prediction played a part in his decision to resign days later.

Here's the deal. I didn't HAVE reporting of my own that detailed the allegations against Massa. Just didn't have it. And, in journalism, when you don't have it, the best thing to do is acknowledge you don't, cite those who do and try to get it.

That's what we did. In our Massa post, it links to the Politico story -- written by a former colleague of mine and a terrific reporter named John Bresnahan -- and makes clear that there were questions surrounding the reasons for Massa's departure.

To my mind, going beyond that -- if I don't personally have the reporting to justify it -- is dangerous and irresponsible.

It's absolutely possible but I dont think it's probable.

I've talked to lots of Democratic consultants who are working in races around the country about this and the general sentiment is even when people are informed about all the good things the bill would do, they are still very skeptical of it simply because they don't want to spend so much money on it.

The rising debt is a major point of concern for a surprising number of Americans and health care plays into the fear that we are growing the debt so large that it will bankrupt future generations.

Independents, also, are critical in this equation and according to the last WaPo poll (and others), a majority of them oppose the bill.

Can that change? Of course. Will it? I would doubt it.

Onward with Obamacare, regardless (Post, March 5)

Remember that Congressional Democrats and President Obama have two different timetables for success.

Congressional Democrats need to have something to point to before November while the President has all the way until mid 2012 for the positive effects of the health care bill to really be felt.

That timing difference is the source of lots of agita on the Hill at the moment. The current thinking seems to be: pass the bill, clear the decks and talk about jobs between now and November.

But, Republicans have something to say about that and they almost certainly won't let health care fade into the background before the fall.

I am willing to try.

That said, both Good Stuff and Z Burger have free wifi. Critically important for a reporter-nomad like me.

Good question...chatters do we have suggestions?

50-50.

Perry is ambitious and I can only assume that his crushing defeat of Kay Bailey Hutchison this week affirmed in hiw own mind his skills and gifts as a candidate.

That said, he has made a political career out of deriding the federal government and speaking ill of Washington so it would be a somewhat tough pivot for him to all of a sudden run for president.

If he did run, perry would be in the mix -- along with Mike Huckabee and Sarah Palin -- as the movement conservative candidate.

Agreed.

If you look at the full spectrum of polling data on the PA Senate race, the Quinnipiac poll that came out earlier this week showing Specter leading Toomey looks like an outlier. That doesn't mean it IS an outlier -- it could be the leadign edge of a Specter resurgence -- but it looks like one at the moment.

I think Democrats tend to take this race far too much for granted. Pennsylvania is not in good shape for the party right now -- Tom Corbett (R) is the odds-on favorite to be governor -- and Toomey has performed far better than most people expected to date.

There's no question that Toomey's numbers will sink some once Democrats pick a candidate and begin defining him.

But, if Specter is the nominee, he could well be the exact wrong fit for a year in which outsiders are prized. A longtime Senator who admittedly switched parties in 2009 because he didn't think he could win the Republican primary? Not good.

Stay tuned to the Fix later today for my latest Senate Line to see where PA ranks.

I think he bought himself a little time when leading African-American leaders decided not to call for his resignation last night.

Will paterson resign ultimately? I think it depends on what else -- if anything -- the New York Times has on him.

The series of  stories the paper has run over the past few weeks has been absolutely devastating.

I loved the McRib. How can that be gone and yet the fillet o fish remains?

Is there any justice in the world?

I do think that White has a chance to win although Texas is still a pretty Republican state.

Remember that Perry took only 39 percent of the vote in his re-election win in 2006 (it was a four way race), which is far from awe-inspiring.

That said, perry has proven to be a VERY able politician over the past decade.

"Unless there's something more to come out."

I agree with you. I also agree with that BIG caveat. Covering politics over the last few years has proven to me not to pre-judge situations like this one. You NEVER know what might come out. I give you Mark Sanford and the Argentine mistress.

Interesting point.

I think you overlook the fact that many of these retirements -- particularly on the Democratic side -- are in districts McCain won in 2008.

What that means to me is that the Dem member of Congress had a special connection to the district that led voters to side with the Republican presidential nominee but also vote to re-elect them.

It's tougher for a newcomer running for an open seat -- no matter how good a candidate -- to inspire that sort of trust that overcomes peoples' natural partisanship.

AHA!

Makes sense. And the Fix family still doesn't eat meat on Fridays. We are traditionalists!

The list of other chats is to the right of the body of the chat underneath the big ad.

"Poplar Bluffs" -- home of Tyler Hansborough!

And, no. I have written about this a fair amount. Primarying sitting presidents is almost impossible.  Reagan came close to beating Ford in 1976 and Kennedy ran a real race against Carter but there's just not enough oxygen for a serious primary challenger to a sitting president.

Could someone challenge Obama in the 2012 primary? Sure. But that person ain't going to win.

I don't, based on my reporting but that obviously could change. JK III ruled out a bid earlier this week -- even before Delahunt retired.

Delahunt's retirement is pretty fresh though so I think the field is in the process of shaking out.

I do think that Democrats in the House and Senate are experiencing something I like to call the "big majority" problem.

In both chambers, Democrats have big numbers -- so big, in fact, that there governing coalition is almost too ideologically diverse.

Take a look at the Senate where you have everyone from Sherrod Brown on the left to Ben Nelson/Evan Bayh on the right -- all under the Democratic banner.

That disparity of viewpoints makes getting Democrats united to do just about anything very difficult.

Yes. Dallek is amazing.

Another GREAT one.

There's this political blog on the Washington Post, it's called "The Fix" I think....that rocks.

VERY difficult.

The problem with switching parties: the party you joined doesn't totally trust you (the whole wolf in sheep's clothing thing) and the party you left despises you and will do anything to beat you.

I think Phil Gramm (of Texas) did it right. When he switched from Democrat to Republican, he resigned and ran in a special election for his old seat.

Good stuff.

I just don't see the Goreacle getting back into politics in any way shape or form.

Although it would be awesome as it would give me an excuse to write "Goreacle" all the time.

I don't think he is terribly well known.  He has been largely overshadowed by the popular Gov. Mike Beebe since coming in to office in 2006.

One of the key elements of the primary in fact will be whether Halter gets out and defines himself first or whether Lincoln can define him to voters looking for more information on him.

Nice "can" reference.

Texas is a good example of what the tea party movement is in American politics at the moment.

Debra Medina ran unapologetically as a tea party candidate and took 18 or 19 percent of the vote.

While she was never a serious factor in the race, the fact that one-fifth of Texas primary voters cast a ballot for her is worth noting.

BUT, 18 or 19 percent is a far cry from winning, which should be the ultimate goal of any political movement.

My guess is that tea partiers ultimately throw their lot in with Republicans but not before they help fuel a few serious primary challenges -- KY Senate, FL Senate -- in the process.

He's got to get elected to Congress first! In Kansas! As a Democrat!

WHAT?  Holy cow. This is almost as big as when I found out there was a character named "Mr. Cillizza" on the "Vampire Diaries".

Don't want to show too much leg here since I am working on a Fix post on this very topic....

Short answer: I would be surprised but not stunned if Crist decided to run as an independent.

My guess is he wants to wait a bit to see if Rubio's stratospheric numbers drop at all before making a decision.

If you read one book about politics, make it "All the King's Men". If you watch one movie about politics, make it "A Perfect Candidate"

And, yes Five Guys make a mean burger. But, to my mind the ranking still look like this

1. Good Stuff

2. Z Burger

3. Five Guys

4 Elevation

5. Rays'

I think the jobs bill -- from a PR perspective --  will help. But, economists seem to believe there is little chance that we will see a significant decline in the unemployment rate between now and November.

I think the critical thing for Democrats then will not be whether unemployment drops to 5 percent but rather whether the unemployment rate is trending downward.

If it is, Democrats can make a reasonable pitch that the policies they have put in place are turning things around. If not, it could get ugly.

;)

Long knives. Good one.

And, remember that the Florida primary isn't until late August. I think it is a tough climb back for Crist but it's not impossible given that relatively long time frame.

Dallek rocks.

Unorthodox! i like it. But, I can't see it knocking either Good Stuff or Z Burger from their prominent place in my heart -- and veins.

Sorry about that. We're working on a fix. Here's Chris's chat archive. Will try to make a habit of linking to this in the future. You can always find it on his blog in the sidebar.