Live Q&As

Only a brave few acknowledge an entitlement crisis (April 11)

You've touched on one of the key problems for Crist.

He has to prove that running as an independent is not simply a political calculation designed to preserve his chances of winning but rather a principled choice based on a set of issues where he thinks the two parties are failing people.

Crist's political career has not been terribly heavy on issues. He'll need to find a few -- education, climate change -- on which to make the case that being an independent is the best way to make change happen for the American public.

GREAT question.

The truth is that there IS considerable pressure put on incumbents not to resign -- unless they are named Eric Masa -- for just the reason you outline: it creates a messy (or potentially messy) race to replace them.

Take Neil Abercrombie. His decision to vacate his Hawaii seat to focus full time on running for governor has created significant political peril for Democrats as they try to hold a seat the President carried with 70 percent of the vote in 2008.

National Democrats urged Abercrombie to stay -- make no mistake about that. But, he believed his chances of winning the governorship were dependent on him getting out of Congress and so out he got.

Ah, politics.

I think Republicans need to win at least one of the two races to credibly make the case that the fall is going to see them make widespread inroads into the Democratic majority or put the House in play.

Both races look winnable for Republicans at the moment.  In Hawaii, two prominent Democrats are splitting enough of the vote to give Honolulu City Councilman Charles Djou, the Republican, a real path to the nomination. In Pennsylvania, President Obama and the Democratic party broadly are very unpopular and if Republicans can turn the race into a referendum on Democrats in Washington, they could well win.

Not that I know of. But, as we all know, Florida does have lots of arcane election laws so....

Sounds plausible.

Remember that in the Post/ABC poll released earlier this week just 32 percent said they were planning to vote to re-elect their member of Congress -- the lowest that # has been since 1994.

My guess is that the playing field in the House is going to get bigger -- potentially a lot bigger -- between now and November.

The biggest question is whether Republicans will have enough money to capitalize if people like Inslee do wind up being endangered.

Today, they don't.

Here's that poll:

Poll finds Americans in an anti-incumbent mood as midterm elections near (Post, April 28)

I think a lot of it has to do with name ID at this point (and Meek made the same point in a CNN interview yesterday).

Meek is a relatively junior Congressman from Miami while Crist is the governor and Rubio is the newest national star of the Republican party.

For Meek, the central question is whether he can raise enough money to get known enough for voters to pull the lever for him. That plan got more complicated this morning when billionaire Jeff Greene announced he was running for Senate as a Democrat.

Greene will spend enough to make Meek have to respond, a response that will drain precious dollars from the Congressman's campaign account.

A tentative yes.

I am going to do a MUCH bigger take out on this question in the Fix next week but here's the short answer:

1. Raise another $8-10 million

2. Act a governorly (is that a word?) as possible

3. Find an issue or two and, to quote Randy jackson, make it your own.

4. Hope Rubio and, to a lesser extent, Meek, slip  up.

Dana had to cancel today. You can find his transcripts here.

In short: LOTS of money appears to have been mispent by the Florida Republican Party. At the moment, the scandal doesn't appear to be landing at the doorsteps of Crist or Rubio any time soon but this is politics and things can and often do change.

I am typing so fast my fingers bleed.

But, no, there isn't much competition.

Take that Weingarten!

Just one: If I had a British accent I would seem far more serious minded.

"Mark Rubio"!

I agree that Rubio is not the prototypical tea party candidate in that he has been very much embraced by the political establishment even prior to his Senate bid. (Rubio is a close ally of former Gov. Jeb Bush, for example).

That said, I think Rubio wound up benefitting from tea parties not necessairly because of who he is but becuase of who he was running against. Tea party people HATED the economic stimulus package (or econstimpack) and Crist's public support for the measure enraged them.

Rubio happened to be in the right place at the right time to capitalize politically from that anger. And, timing is most everything in politics.

Biggest gaffes!

Not sure exactly where the Gordon Brown "hot mic" fits in but it has to be in the conversation with George H.W. Bush looking at his watch, Ed Muskie "crying" in New Hampshire and the Dean scream.

What others am I missing?

I wrote an entire post entitled "Why Charlie Crist is noe Joe Lieberman"!

Live Fix super-producer Andrea can you link to it?

Why Charlie Crist is no Joe Lieberman

Yup. Apologies. Too many Cinnamon Dolce Lattes this morning.

That district -- the 12th -- is in southwestern Pennsylvania and President Obama and his health care bill are running well behind how each is doing statewide in PA.

Thanks for the chance to clarify.

Are people going to go see the new Nightmare on Elm street movies? Yes? No? Maybe?

Worst case for Democrat: lose House and Senate. I think that is VERY unlikely.

Worst case for Republicans: very modest (10 or under) gains in the House and a seat or two pickup in the Senate. Again, not likely.

I think there is  CHANCE for both to happen.

I think Whitman is the better bet at the moment simply because of her vast personal wealth and Jerry Brown's potential weakness in an anti-politician environment.

Democrats are bullish on Bill White in Texas and I think that if this was 2006 Perry might lose. But, in a pro-Republican national environment, it's harder for me to see. Not impossible by any means. But difficult.

Again, his reputation -- whether well deserved or not -- is that he is more of a politics than a policy guy.

To effectively run as an independent, Crist has to show that the decision to leave the GOP was about more than a simple calculation that he couldn't win the nomination.

People never like when politicians act like politicians and that's especially true in this environment.

And he is worth ONE BILLION DOLLARS. (In my best Dr. Evil voice.)

Money matters always in politics but especially in a state the size of Florida where most voters meet politicians through their television sets.

"Why am I here"!

Yes. Absolute insta-classic.

Not sure his legal obligation but from a practical political perspective it would be crazy for Crist not to return money if people ask.

As I wrote yesterday in the Fix, he has to hope that the amount that people want returned is -- at worst -- in the low seven figures. Any more and it could impact his ability to communicate with voters in the fall.

:)

I think some.

But, Crist likely concluded that the problems Republicans have with him won't go away in two years time and by then the political winds could have shifted in a way that made him being elected totally impossible.

You're welcome.

And, yes, if you believe polls in Nevada Sue Lowden has to be considered the favorite to beat Reid -- chicken bartering controversy notwithstanding.

Voters in Nevada seem to have tired of Reid and nothing that has happened over the last few years seems to have impacted those feelings much.

Lowden leads a less than stellar cast of characters in the Republican race but as of today this race looks like a referendum on an unpopular politician in Reid so it mayh not matter who Republicans nominate.

Playing on my weaknesses for "I am [fill in the blank] politician" question!

Well done.

I think national Democrats are actually more agnostic about who wins the Kentucky primary than most people think.

That said, Jack "One tough son of a bitch" Conway has shown a capacity to raise money and is from the population center of Louisville.

Mongiardo is neither.

YES!

Also, John McCain's "the fundamentals of the economy are sound" comment in the fall of 2008. DOH!

Oh snap!

Unlike, say, being a journalist.

;)

Not really. I mean, if Lexi implodes I don't think it helps President Obama but I can't see it being a decisive factor in the 2012 presidentia race either.

Giannoulias is in a danger zone at the minute -- one week removed from the failure of his family bank. He spent this week trying to put Mark Kirk, his Republican opponent, on defense over Goldman Sachs and financial regulatory reform -- a sound strategy.

But, the bank's failure has given Republicans something close to a trump card to play in the fall. It's a tough race for Giannoulias.

Because people "invested" in him when he was a Republican.  I think lots and lots of people won't ask for their donations back.

But, if Crist is running as an independent to listen to "the people", it would seem a little weird if he didn't give some of those people their  money back, right?

Gart Hart: "Follow me around".

That gaffe gave us not just Donna Rice but Monkey Business, the single greatest name boat in the history of the world.

Lemieux statement this morning: "I will support our Republican nominee."

And that ain't Charlie Crist.

Remember that Lemieux wants to run against Sen. Bill Nelson in  2012 and doesn't want to alienate the GOP base in advance of that bid.

I didn't say good candidate. I said rich candidate.

And, if Greene plucks down a hefty chunk of change on ads introducing himself in the best possible light to voters he could quickly gain traction.

Senator Pothole!

Queue up for the lift.

Mind the gap

Cheerio!

(Gravitas building by the second.)

Depends on what the definition of in play is.

I would guess that we are looking at 75 or so seats that will be genuinely competitive with two well funded and serious candidates.

Could be more. Could be less.

But, Republicans need to find ways to fund a bunch of races that they could win but don't have the money for at the moment.

They are awesome!

twitter.com/CurbsideCupcake

I follow them on Twitter but haven't tried yet. They are on the list.

Good points.

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