Live Q&As

Good afternoon, thanks for joining us today.

This is a great question, as so much of politics is about intensity.  In this new poll, 35 percent of Americans say they "strongly disapprove" of the way President Obama is doing his job. Some 28 percent are that solidly on his side. This is the first time strong disapprovers have outnumbered strong approvers by a significant margin.

But your sense is correct, this numbers are nowhere close to as bad as were George W. Bush's toward the end of his second term. He basically had majority strong disapproval most of his final year, with very few strong supporters. We didn't ask intensity as much during the Clinton years, so it's hard to compare on this point.

Back to Obama, another troubling finding in the poll is that twice as many now have strongly negative than strongly positive views about how he's handling the economy. That's a big challenge to face when it comes to issue No. 1.

Caution is good advice all the way around. For all the slippage in public confidence in Obama, it's not as if people are rushing to the GOP. In fact, 72 percent of registered voters in the poll say they have little or no confidence in the Republicans in Congress to make the right decisions for the country's future. This includes about a half of Republican respondents.

The negative numbers for the GOP represent one clear reason Democrats have been so eager to frame the November elections as a choice between parties, not as a simple report card on their performance.

To follow-up on the last answer, yes, there's ample reason for all elected officials to be concerned about general dissatisfaction hitting home. Fully 62 percent of voters say they're apt to look around for new representatives in the fall; that's the highest number saying so in Post-ABC poll back to the late 1980's.

I'll leave the likelihood of a Democratic majority to the prognosticators, but will point out that in the poll, a slim majority, 51 percent, of voters say they'd prefer a GOP takeover, to have Congress be a brake on Obama's policies. Among independents, 54 percent would prefer Republicans in charge.

We release *every* question we ask, in exactly the order we asked them. This is for transparency reasons, and so that you can come to your own conclusions about the data. The link is here: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postpoll_07132010.html

I see the story we wrote as decidedly mixed for both sides.

The top of the story emphasizes Obama's numbers, as the general dissatisfaction has now swept him up, and his approval rating on the economy has slumped seven points in a month. Comps to the GOP is high and and on the A1 graphic.

Where do you think we erred?

You are not alone. In the poll, 36 percent of voters say they have little or no confidence in Obama, the Democrats in Congress and the Republicans in Congress ... none of the three. There are clearly trust issues these days in American politics.

For more, check out the Pew Research Center's recent poll on the topic; they've also compiled available historical trend, which is critical. Link here: http://people-press.org/trust/

Each time out we poll a random sample of adults, reaching people on conventional and cellular telephones. The approach means that our resulting samples are representative of the overall population, plus or minus. We show more people identifying as Democrats than as Republicans because more people identify as Democrats than as Republicans. Don't mean to sound flip, but it is what it is. Our numbers are also very similar to others ... see this compilation at pollster.com http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/party-id.php.

In the 2008 election, the exit poll showed Democrats with a seven-point advantage among voters nationally. Before the election, our numbers were virtually identical.

But you're certainly right, that if the sample were too Democratic, then the results would be much worse for Obama: 82 percent of Democrats approve of how he's handling his job, a mere 15 percent of Republicans agree.

Could be. It's certainly off to a rough start.

Really good question. Reminds me of the title of one of my favorite political books: "Tax Revolt: Something for Nothing in California. It's the story of Proposition 13, and once again a must read. In my case, I now plan to re-read. 

Part of it is certainly general angst/anger, but the president does come under harsher reviews in some areas than others. Among the issues tested in this poll, Obama's worst is on his handling of the federal budget deficit, where 56 percent disapprove. Nearly as many, 54 percent, now give him low marks on dealing with the economy. The president fares slightly better on health care and on regualtion of the financial industry. The top rating in the poll is on how he's doing as commander in chief. Some 55 percent approve of how he's doing in this role.

We polled a random sample of 1,288 adults, including interviews with 1,151 who say they're registered to vote. We included this information in the story, on the graphic and at the top of the questionnaire, which is posted in full here: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postpoll_07132010.html

Happy to post, but you wouldn't see much info in the demographics, as we, and all other public polls I know of, adjust final samples to Census parameters. So all you'd see is an adult sample that matches up with the adult population. Now, how voters or "likely voters" divide is a different question. Older adults are far more likely to be registered to vote and to participate than are younger ones, so the breakdown naturally skews. Feel free to e-mail me if you want additional info. Will do my best to provide.

We almost always do "general population" surveys, including those who are and are not currently registered to vote. But for some questions -- particular those about 2010 -- we chose to ask only registered voters their opinions.

Those who have cut the cord and joined the ranks of the cellphone-only are included, regardless of their choice of device.

If you have a telephone, you have the same chance as anyone else to be called (lucky you). However, with a couple hundred million adults in the country, the odds are very low. If we do call at random, we certainly would appreciate your answering.

Thanks all. Apologies for not getting to all your good questions (and complaints).

Have a great afternoon, Jon