The Fix Live

Jul 21, 2014

The Fix's Chris Cillizza discussed the latest in political news.

Follow @TheFix on Twitter.

Good morning everyone! Sorry the Friday chat blew up. I think the Internet broke.

But, I am back and reinvigorated for the week.  Awaiting Obama's statement on Ukraine and pondering whether Prince is underrrated, overrated or properly rated.

Let's do this.

Guess the Worst Week went to the chat software last week.

That and the FDA/CDC for playing fast and loose with deadly pathogens.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/who-had-the-worst-week-in-washington-the-fda-and-the-cdc-for-freaking-us-all-out/2014/07/18/326acd16-0dfa-11e4-8c9a-923ecc0c7d23_story.html

 

Who is more likely to be Clinton's V.P. choice--Julian Castro or Deval Patrick?

Castro I think.

Found your article interesting about how what is going on at the border could change the electorate on the immigration issue. John Lewis making statements that our doors are open to anyone and everyone can't help when it looks like their is no order in the process.

I am not sure what's happening at the border changes all that much politically by itself.

I do think though that it adds to a general sense of chaos domestically and abroad that makes people wonder about President Obama's ability to do the job.

He was already struggling on the competence question before any of this -- the border crisis, the Malaysian plane, the Israel vs Hames battle -- broke out.

Good Choice, or another "Mistake by the Lake"

I say good choice.  I can't wait to go the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame.  Never been!

Though, quite frankly the prospect terrifies me, I have been fascinated by what looks to me like Chris Christie's inexorable march to the nomination, if not the White House. In his interview with John Harwood he showed the charm, wit and humor that feels like it will blow the other Republican challengers away like leaves before the blower. Do you think he's past the bridge and the skyway?

What Christie has over everyone else in the GOP field (and Hillary Clinton) is massive amounts of charisma and personality.

The problem for him is that conservatives already have doubts about whether he is conservative enough for him. In NBC/Marist polls last week, he had the highest unfavorable ratings of any Republican presidential candidate.

So, I don't think he is on a march to the nomination or the White House just yet. But I also think you can't count someone out who is as good on his feet as Christie.

when The Fix is taken to an undisclosed location, where is that?

Fire Island! My parents own a house out there.

And, I promise, I will never take another day off. You have my word.

Hey Fix - several #Tcot-types quickly jumped on POTUS for lacking leadership yesterday w/ poor word choice and hesitance to comment. What's your take, and didn't "W" show similar restraint with certain disasters?

This is one of our leftover questions from Friday. Philip Bump wrote a piece about the conservative critique of Obama on Ukraine -- comparing him unfavorably to Reagan.  Read that here: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/07/18/the-tricky-game-of-playing-politics-in-the-wake-of-a-tragedy/

With Obama about to speak (he was scheduled for 10:50), I think the White House is pushing hard for him to be very public on all of this -- and probably pretty harsh about russian involvement too.

I hear he's spending a lot of time in Iowa "Fundraising" for Gov. Branstead. I put it in quotes because if there's one politician who doesn't need fundraising help, it's a guy who's been elected Governor 5 times. So is his 2016 Presidential speeches getting any traction in the Hawwkeye State?

Ted Cruz is running for president. I would be STUNNED if that previous sentence isn't true.

Where are you at? What are you listening to? What are you drinking? And how checkered is your shirt?

Shirt checkering: 9 out of 110.

Coffee: Soy chai tea latte

Listening to: Birds chirping out side the White House while I wait for Obama to speak

Location: The nerve center of FixWorld.

My guess is Kingston pulls it out, he is just more likeable and a better campaigner. Agree or not?

My guess too. 

Is this guy for real? Why would he put out a book a couple of years after he failed so miserably?

Yes, he is for real.

Chris, do you think there's any 'there there' in the Chris McDaniel//Thad Cochran brouhaha, other than McDaniel having proved for the world that he's a heavyweight sore loser?

Well, he's done that in spades.

Read this: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/07/17/what-exactly-is-chris-mcdaniel-doing/

How amazing, from a political junkie perspective, would it be if control of the Senate came down to Georgia and Louisiana, and we wouldn't know the fate until January? Did you know Georgia has a similar law to Louisiana? If the candidate doesn't get above 50%, there is a runoff? While Louisiana's is in December, Georgia's isn't until January!!! Not healthy for our democracy, but an amazing situation for a political junkie.

Oh, I am WELL aware of the runoff rules ;)

If control of the Senate comes down to the Louisiana runoff, that's the worst possible news for Mary Landrieu. Hard to see how she wins in a scenario like that. If control is decided -- either way -- before a runoff, she's got a shot.

This feels completely odd.

I know...for me too.  But, I will do two chats this week. That's win or a loss -- depending on what you think of me.

Seeing your chat keeps making think it's Friday. Ug.

Sounds like someone has the case of the Mondays.

I understand that everyone wants to be Nate Silver, but what do you think of the recent report that Republicans have an 86% chance of capturing the Senate. That just strikes me as way way too high, especially when you look at the polls and see that enough Democrats are leading their races (albeit narrowly) to keep the Senate. How can someone predict that their is an 86% chance that some of those races will flip?

The 86% prediction is the result of a model built by GW's John Sides and two other political scientists. He explains how they got to it here: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2014/07/17/the-election-lab-midterm-forecast-explained/

And here's my take on it: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/07/15/our-election-model-says-republicans-have-an-86-percent-chance-of-winning-the-senate-heres-why-that-might-be-wrong/

I'm a firm believer that Jeb Bush will eventually win the nomination. I can' t see the big donors getting behind Rand Paul or Santorum. Does Christie (or anyone else) have a chance?

Funny, I am becoming more convinced that if he runs, it's not so easy for him to win. On two major issues for the GOP base -- Common Core and immigration -- Bush is not in agreement with the base.

Could he overcome that? Sure. But it won't be a cakewalk.

Does Fix Aaron have the power to make the Internet break?

Yes. He is like that woman in that new movie: he uses like 75% of his brain.

"What exactly are they trying to hide?" -- President Obama on Russian-backed separatists.

He's got a good swing and has a good amount of homers in his carreer. I think Prince Fielder is properly-rated.

Booooo!

But, creative.

Any thoughts on Al Gore giving it a go in 2016? His answer to this question during recent interviews is surprisingly open-minded.

Um, no.

Is it me, or is Jamie Fix starting to get more posts than Aaron Fix these days?

Oh, snap!

One piece of news: We are adding TWO more Fixers in the near future. H-U-G-E.

It's interesting that you and Boswell are going head-to-head this morning. Your chats styles could not be more different -- 75 10-word answers to per chat versus six novellas.

I write in prose, he writes in poetry.

Who's up for a Primary this week? When does Hawai'i go?

Big one is the GA Senate runoff between Jack Kingston and David Perdue. Winner faces Michelle Nunn in the fall.

Out of the goodness of our hearts, we posters will grant one to you on November 9, 2016.

Fair.

I can't get excited about November election. Is it just me or is this a bad vintage year in politics? Could you give me 3 reasons why I shouldn't just start waiting for 2016.

1. Control of the Senate is at stake.

2. BIG state governorships -- Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio -- are up.

3. Two words: Chris Cillizza

Any chance FIFA will take it away from Putin? If assigned to cover it, would you go?

Yes and yes.

How amazing would it be if Russia lost the 2018 World Cup and Qatar lost the 2022 version.

What have you done with him? I'm actually doing work from 10-noon. Not acceptable.

He's off for the summer. And I miss him too.

I'm seeing polling that she actually has a shot. Is this true?

A shot? Yes.

I am still skeptical the numbers add up; for any Democrat in a midterm in Georgia. but she is raising an incredible amount of money and getting good reviews on the campaign trail.

Next act for Eric Cantor? Run for VA Gov, try to get back to the House in 2 years, or enjoy the life of a lobbyist?

Option 3, for the time being. Read this: http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/20/magazine/eric-cantor-is-on-the-market.html?_r=0

What is his current chance of running in 2016? From 100 being a Guiness Certainty to 0 being generic lite beer

Um, who are we talking about here?

Apparently Al Yankovic once got a letter from Prince's lawyers that he was not to make eye contact with him. I feel the same way about you Chris.

All new Fix Hires are briefed by Aaron with a few simple rules:

1. Do not make eye contact with the Fix

2. If you make eye contact, look down and immediately run from the room.

3.  Do not speak to the Fix unless spoken to.

Totally reasonable, right?

Ignoring for a moment how McDaniel has gone about this - if it does turn out that there are thousands of votes that shouldn't have been cast in the R primary and there were enough to affect the result, then how does the SOS/GOP deal with it? If 10,000 people voted illegally, that seems to be kind of a big deal

I am VERY skeptical there are any close to that number.

As for if there were, I am not sure. The Secretary of State has already certified the election.

I assume it would be up to a judge to decide what to do.

It comes out 50-50 but either Angus King or Joe Manchin switch sides!

Uh-mazing.

You miss Herman Cain and his 9-9-9 plan.

I do.  Who doesn't?

My orange tabby wants lasagna!

Garfield. So, so terrible.

Joni Ernst is even or better bet at this point right? Braley's campaign has kind of missed its window to define her over the summer, she outraised him last quarter, and he's got the lingering problem of her very positive biography versus his not so positive biography.

I think an even bet, which is amazing given how that race started. Bruce Braley has been "eh" so far this campaign.  Not terribly impressive.

Does John Sides' senate model take into account the predilection of (my fellow) Republicans to say tremendously stupid things in front of cameras?

Um, is that a data point that can be measured?

I have two words for those who say its impossible: "Duke" and "Lehigh"

I have two more words: Georgetown and Florida Gulf Coast. Or Georgetown and Ohio. Or Georgetown and Davidson.

Oh, this just got very sad very fast.

have I seen a non-incumbent with a more direct path to the White House as Hillary Clinton. What are you political journalists going to do to keep yourselves entertained for the next two years?

Oh, I am sure we will think of something.

He hasn't put anything good out since he changed his name into a wingding.

Even if I accept that premise, what he put out before he changed his name is UNREAL.

did you catch lifetime's "the Lottery" about a world where it's impossible to conceive children? it's on at the same time.

Maybe I should. I can do the Leftovers. I listen to Andy Greenwald and Chris Ryan's podcast on it and it seems totally terrible.

Mrs Fix and I are just starting Fargo.

He's doing a good job. Keep him.

Yeah, he's good people. Tall drink of water too -- which could help when we form the Fix hoops team.

I don't even know who the contenders are anymore.

So....

Rock and Roll HOF is incredible. Am surprised you haven't been and down the road is the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

Going to hit both. PSYCHED. I have been to the Country Music Hall of Fame in Nashville, which I loved.

John Oliver noticed this on his show last night. Could there be a Dorian Grey-typre portrait in his house showing an old Coop with middle East Peace in the background?

He IS ageless. And that hairline = outstanding.

What did you think of Suarez leaving Liverpool for Barca?

Probably the right move for Liverpool. Although it's hard to replace one of the 3 best players in the world.

I am interested to see how Barca handles Neymar, Messi and Suarez.

Do you think the republican nomination comes to Bush/Rubio vs. Paul?

I think it comes down to Paul and whoever the establishment picks -- probably Rubio, Christie or Scott Walker. Maybe Kasich.

I still don't see Jeb running.

Do you also quote WWE lines when talking to new hires like The Rock and Ric Flair?

They have to ID who said this: "I live in the biggest house, on the biggest side of town."

Get that wrong and you are dismissed.

In addition to playing politicos in "The Last Debate" and "My Fellow Americans", he was a proponent of legalized marijuana.

Him and Cypress Hill.

Fill in the blank: Immigration reform will be signed into law in the year ____

2017.

Some sort of immigration reform. Not necessarily what the Senate passed.

Ryan Zimmerman is the team's future 1st basemen, right? Rendon has to be at 3rd. He's too damn good.

Went to the game yesterday.  Zimmerman CANNOT throw the ball. He missed Rendon on a double play ball at second. I think he needs to start playing more first to get him used to it.

I don't feel good with Zimmerman at 3rd and Soriano as our closer going into the post-season.

michelle nunn or Allison lunderson grimes (not sure if that's her exact name, but I mean the dem nominee in KY).

I think Grimes by a little. And that's because I can't see how McConnell gets higher than about 52 or 53 percent.

How soon till Fix Aaron does something like Prince and refers to himself as a symbol instead of a name?

He already does that internally.

If a wave does come for Republicans in the fall, do you think using abortion can save the Governor and Senator in the state? Chuck Todd in particular thinks that issue has pushed Colorado blue.

Interesting.

The swing vote in Colorado elections is the Denver suburbs and more specifically women in the Denver suburbs.

There's a reason Cory Gardner reversed himself on personhood a month or so ago. he knows it is very bad for him in that group.

I think he had the Worst Week with that loss on Sunday.

Man, I felt terrible for him. He was tired, quadruple teamed and had to play the final against Ze Germans.

Also, Higuain stinks. Just had to say that.

In assessing potential Democratic presidential candidates, why no Fix love for Jerry Brown? He's performed a minor miracle in California. He has a personal dislike for the Clintons. He's in good health and about the same age as Biden. Plus, some prominent folks are urging he consider it, but he never makes the Fix line. Why?

He has said over and over again he doesn't want to run.

But you are right, he does NOT like the CLintons. 

I should probably have him and Gov. Jay Nixon of Missouri on there.

What's next for him?

Not sure. He has opened the door to a presidential bid down the line but won't run against Hillary. And he's not that young.

Check this out: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/07/18/hillary-clinton-is-going-to-be-the-democratic-nominee-so-why-is-anyone-else-running/

Who is winning the hearts of the Tea Partiers?

Prob Ted Cruz. But the libertarian wing of the GOP is alL Rand all the time.

I'm not seeing the fire in his belly. Is he being pushed into 2016 by his wife?

I think he is embarrassed by how badly he ran in 2012 and wants to run again to show people he can do it.

That said, there's that old phrase about first impressions and never getting second chances to make them,

Where was the Fix?

With Fix fam...and then playing hoops. (I watched some of in on tape.)

It looks to me like John Boehner is pretty secure in his job now. Who'da thunk it?

I STILL don't see how he has the votes to avoid a second ballot.

But, if Republicans pick up seats in November, it's also hard to see them running him out on a rail as Speaker.

If he was in any state other than Louisiana, I would say his off-again, on-again campaign was toast. What do the polls say?

Um, its Congressman McAllister!

And, yes, Louisiana has a somewhat laissez faire attitude about this sort of stuff that might allow him to win again. heck, Edwin Edwards is running for Congress in Louisiana this year!

Have you done your "Orphan Black" yet? You may not advance to Fargo before you see the Cone Dance Club.

Oh yeah.  Finished second season two weeks ago. I LOVE that show.

How are things looking in the Beaver State?

Merkley clearly favored. Wehby wins if there is a national wave for Republicans.

is apparently tied with Charles Baker in Massachusetts. Is she just a bad candidate?

She's not great. But, she is still the favorite there. This is Massachusetts.

How is Walker doing in his re-election bid?

Ahead but not by a ton. 

Rick Scott has been making some missteps lately. Is it showing in the polls?

He's been behind former Gov. Charlie Crist for months now.

Did you catch the photo of The Rock with the fanny pack. Utterly hilarious.

Yes. SO GOOD.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/07/16/dwayne-the-rock-johnson-1990s_n_5591053.html

Do you think it's possible the Dems will put their 2016 convention in Columbus now that the GOP announced Cleveland? I would love to see back-to-back conventions in Ohio, complete with awkward chance meetings at the airports.

I think they might.  But remember the GOP convention is going to be REALLY early -0- like early June. not clear if Dems will move their convention way up too or not.

I love the WP piece on the deficit and debt. Is it just a political tool at this point? I do miss Fox's creativity with the debt clock.

YES! Read: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/in-the-loop/wp/2014/07/19/whatever-happened-to-the-deficit/

I prefer the former, since you are giving us political junkies oout mornign Fix.

Fixes. Ok. Done.

What did you think of the World Cup final? Germany was the best team and deserved the title.

Ze Germans deserved to win. They played terrifically.

Most interesting and undertalked about question: Who do you see as the first major 2016 contender who will drop out of the race?

Someone with relatively high expectations who has a political future to preserve.

how many more times can he forget which state he's in before people get offended?

He's not been a good candidate. Period.

I just thought you should know.

Not for long...

Only the Fix can handle this. I was in Maine last week for vacation and came across the name of Plato Truman, who ran for Senate in 1994 and has evidently been a gadfly in the state for a long time (with a name like that, how can you be anything other than a gadfly?). Reading this sparked two ideas in my head. One, Plato Truman is a really, really amazing name. And two, having been familiar with http://www.nameoftheyear.com/, which is an amazing website (you need to spend time on it), I thought of you. Could the Fix do a bracket to determine the greatest names in politics ever? Could be candidates, former congressmen, current pollsters, whoever - just the best name of real people, don't care about their politics, just their name. If anyone could pull it off, it's you. Help us Obi-Fix, you're our only hope! (And if you can't run the contest, can you think of a better name in politics than Plato Truman?).

Yes, yes we can.

Ok, folks. That's it for today. But, I WILL be back on Friday at the usual time (11 am) for even more question and answer.

See you then!

In This Chat
Chris Cillizza
Chris Cillizza is the managing editor of PostPolitics and he writes "The Fix," a politics blog for The Washington Post. He also covers the White House for the newspaper and website. Chris has appeared as a guest on NBC, CBS, ABC, MSNBC, Fox News Channel and CNN to talk politics. He lives in Virginia with his wife and sons.
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