The Fix Live

Jun 27, 2014

The Fix's Chris Cillizza discussed the latest in political news.

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Happy Friday everyone! One of the busier primary weeks of the season is behind us -- leaving lots of good fodder in its wake. (How exactly DID Thad Cochran win?)

Plus, we are in the heart of the World Cup -- and the US made it to the knockout round!

Let's do this.

Three guys who would all make strong candidates for the GOP nomination. Three guys who also seem to have sweet gigs they really enjoy. Three guys with good reasons not to run (although I still think Jeb might run).

Agree.

I don't see Huckabee or Ryan running. I could be persuaded that Jeb runs although I still think it's more likely than not that he stays out.

Stay tuned for our latest rankings of the 2016 GOP field in the Fix later today...

No real national significance to his survival, but there are two points about Hispanic voters worth noting (1) their political power still does not match their numbers and (2) they are not a homogenous group -- Adriano Espaillat cleaned up among his fellow Dominicans, but the district's many Puerto Ricans (concentrated in East Harlem) mostly stuck with Rangel.

Both very good points.

I also think Rangel's decision to announce this next one would be his last term was smart. People figured that they could send him out on a high note and then replace him in two years time.

USA-Belgium -- a pretty even match, no? When I'm not cheering the Red-White-and-Blue, I back the Oranje. What are the chances that the Dutch win it all? Get into the final?

Dutch have looked like the best team in the tournament so far.

I worry about U.S. Belgium.  They have a LOT of talent on that team: Hazard, Lukaku etc...

Do you make more money now or when you graduated high school? Your paper's story counted money Bill Clinton received from speeches starting in Jan. 2001, when the Clintons left the White House. Hillary referred to their money at that point, not now (when everyone says they're rich). I know everything about the political impact of saying something out of touch, but the actual statement was not true and has been distorted. Even WaPo's story acknowledges this by talking about the $ made after the Clintons left the White House.

The point of today's story was simply to detail how much money Bill Clinton has made from speechifying since leaving the White House, not to offer a broad judgment on whether thats a good or a bad thing. (The story is here:http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/how-the-clintons-went-from-dead-broke-to-rich-bill-earned-1049-million-for-speeches/2014/06/26/8fa0b372-fd3a-11e3-8176-f2c941cf35f1_story.html?hpid=z1)

As for how Hillary and Bill Clinton talk about their wealth, I do think she has fumbled a bit. The reality is that they always had massive earning power coming out of the white House and so the idea that they were in financial straits is simply not true although, technically, they were in debt.

I think Clinton would be well served to say something like: "We have been extraordinarily blessed in our lives. But, through it all, I've never stopped working for or thinking about the middle class."

Hahahaha. Good luck explaining away being 1 of 3 votes against the VA bill. Absurd speculation from a bored press.

Yeah, the truth is in the current incarnation of the Republican party, Bob Corker wouldn't have a snowball's chance at the nomination.

Are you watching? The second season concluded last week. Really enjoyable.

About a third of the way through Season 2. I love that show.

At least according to Yahoo, the Netherlands is the favorite. Am I crazy to predict Mexico to upset the Dutch?

Possible. Mexico has played really well in this tournament after being horrible in qualifying.

I still think the Dutch look too strong; I see them in the semifinals and maybe even the finals.

FYI, the theme song to 'The View' is....'The View Theme Song'. Quite the bastion of creativity over there.

This is my theme song: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tONxTs5CXg8&feature=kp

Don't you think that a Hillary Clinton / Elizabeth Warren ticket would be pretty much unbeatable? I know that VP pick doesn't usually mean much, but I think the progressive left would be over the top if Warren were on the ticket.

Maybe. But will Hillary Clinton really need to make a VP pick to shore up the liberal left? Seems unlikely to me.

How concerned should he be that McDaniel will challenge him next?

Not very.

I think McDaniel proved in this race that he was an undisciplined candidate who missed a golden opportunity to beat an incumbent who was clearly not ready for a serious challenge.

Wicker, if he wasn't already, will be more than ready post-Cochran.

What do you see happening on the immigration front, with Cantor out of leadership? Do you think there will be a big push before July 31st?

Um, no.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/06/26/immigration-reform-in-congress-is-dead-thats-really-bad-news-for-republicans-in-2016/

What should I eat for lunch Chris?

Pizza. It's Friday.  It's summer. The US is in the knockout round.

last few polls have seen hagan coming back, still in danger of course, but rebounding, does this seem about right?

Going to be very close. If I had to guess, I would peg her as the slightest of underdogs..

so, planning on watching any of the new HBO shows? True blood, the leftovers, something else?

NOT Leftovers. I hate that preview.

I am planning to get into:

* Fargo

* Silicon Valley

* Tyrant

And I am on the last season of Breaking Bad. DAMN.

So yeah Cochran won, but he would have not only lost but lost badly, had it not been for the black Democrats who turned out. Politics ain't bean bag, and Cochran was smart to take that route, but that nonetheless means that the conservative outside groups didn't really fail, having achieved their goal of getting a majority of Republicans to vote against Cochran, right?

In politics, winning is the only measure of success. And Cochran won.  So, yes, tea party groups failed.

How out-of-the-box was Thad Cochran's political strategy for the runoff? Was it just a type of old-school political maneuvering we haven't seen in this age of hyper-ideological Republican candidates or is it actually something new; and do you think we will see this replicated anywhere?

Absolutely remarkable. I compared Cochran winning to the equivalent of pitching a political perfect game. 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/06/24/how-thad-cochran-won/

How long would you wager that McDaniel's posse will drag out their "investigation" into supposedly illegal crossover voting? Given the low turnout in the Dem primary, it seems unlikely that many of them also showed up for the GOP runoff. Will we see a shadow campaign in the meantime with McDaniel assuming he'll be vindicated and become the nominee?

McDaniel's main point seems to be that the race wasn't decided entirely by Republicans.

Sure. But that's not against the law.  Mississippi doesn't have party registration. So, anyone who didn't vote in the Democratic primary on June 3 could legally vote on Tuesday.

Which they did. I don't see the issue.

McDaniel seems to be annoyed that he got out-thought by the Cochran campaign. That, of course, is not a crime.

Who is likely to run in Illinois? Does Kirk retire?

If he retires, I think Tammy Duckworth might make a run on the D side.  Maybe a more liberal D from Chicago-area too. And, then there's always Lisa Madigan who would clear the field if she ran.

For Republicans, I would bet Aaron Schock would run.

What in the world happened in Oklahoma? I really thought Shannon was on a roll for a while but he ended up loosing by what ... 20 some percent?

23!

Lankford was better known to start and ran the far superior campaign.  Another tea party setback.

Do you have the power to get Hank Jr. to do some kind of "All My Rowdy Friends" thing for the World Cup? I know you're awesome. I'm counting on you.

Thanks for the vote of confidence.

And, no.

Do you think his victory will make McDaniel supporters less likely to go to the polls in November? How does that hurt the Senator's chances, if at all?

Sure, some of them will stay home.

But, this is Mississippi in a midterm election that looks good for Republicans nationally. So, A LOT of them would need to stay home for it to come close to mattering. And I don't see that happening.

Thad Cochran loses a primary but survives a runoff, Eric Cantor loses his primary, Paul Broun and Phil Gingrey don't even make the runoff, the federal government shuts down but Republicans are still favored in November, Hillary Clinton starts a book tour but makes several pretty big mistakes. Who could have predicted this kind of stuff at this time last year? Amazing

Yup.

It's why I love my job.

Which was more responsible for our advancement to the knockout stage: Hulk Hogan's promo video, or Will Ferrell's appearance in Recife?

Farrell.

Here it is for those who haven't seen: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3z4Hzo9UmrQ&feature=youtu.be

Cantor losing or Cochran winning?

Oh, Cantor. By a lot.

Been a rough couple weeks with GOP primary predictions (Cantor and Cochran). Do they have relegation for political commentators/pundits like they do in the Premier League? They should. That'd be great (although you'd have to get used to calling town council or city Sanitation Commissioner races).

That would be awesome.

Also, I do think the relegation concept could really work in the US. Keep tanking in the NBA and you have to play in the D league for a year and a D league team who won moves up.

She says soccer is destroying us. True or false?

The Kardashians are destroying us. Everyone knows that.

when you inhale helium?

Exactly the same.

I agree that it completely lacked class. Question: does he go forward with his "legal challenge" to the primary? Or does the establishment muzzle him? (Think of the optics - a conservative candidate sues because African American turnout increased in a primary? Oh dear me...)

He probably foes forward with it in some form since I don't think he much cares what the establishment wants.

But, if I read Mississippi law right, he doesn't have much solid ground on which to stand.

What will ever be the incentive for a House GOP member to support reform? Even if the GOP candidate loses in 2016, as long as the base is against it, for their own self interest, they should be against it.

The argument from reform advocates is that it's simply not the poison pill politically speaking that some people present it as.

As in, voting for immigration reform isn't going to cost anyone their job. The problem with that argument is the hit Marco Rubio took for his involvement in the comprehensive immigration package that passed the Senate.

Seriously...who doesn't run for President who isn't wealthy? Lets be fair, isn't targeting a candidate for being wealthy just an excuse for not liking who they are as a person? Why doesn't the Media like Hillary?

Not about being wealthy.

It's about being comfortable talking about your financial successes and then pivoting back to a focus on what you have done and can do for people less well off than you.

She's still struggling with that.

Out of today's group of Senator's/Representatives, who do you think comes closest to the level of respect Howard Baker had?

People like Corker a lot.

Sheldon Whitehouse is someone lots of senators tell me nice things about on the other side of the aisle.

Coburn.

Um. Wow, Tea Party President commits suicide after runoff? Is this a movie?

Really, really sad.  

Here's the story for those who missed: http://www.clarionledger.com/story/news/2014/06/27/mark-mayfield-dead/11456769/

Sleeper candidate or candidate that makes you want to fall asleep?

Sleeper-ish.

Not sure he could raise the money or find a slot not already occupied by a Kasich/Walker type.

But Pence is a talented communicator.

My son is lactose intolerant. What should we eat? Pizza is out.

Burgers.

DONE

Great thing about Gov races is that despite a states lean or partisan environment if people think you are a bad Governor you can and will lose. I think we'll see that with Illinois and Kansas, both i think are now tossups in November, interested in your thoughts

Yes.  The "wrong" party winning happens lots more in governors races than federal ones.
Wyoming had a two term Democratic governor. Prior to Deval Patrick, Republicans held the Massachusetts governorship for a decade.

That almost never happens at the federal level.

Somebody who is behind on bills and lost their job is dead broke. Somebody who owes a lot of money, but can make twice that per year is in debt. Even Hillary acknowledged that her original response was tone deaf. That much being said, her responses to questioning are getting better. If she runs (yeah, I know), she'll have worked out the kinks. Just look at Tiger after 9 holes.

That is all correct.

asked you to be his or her press secretary, would it be nay or yea?

Absolutely no way.

Of course, they would never ask.

Gotta be an Hispanic. Hillary will fire up the women, an Hispanic will fire up the Hispanics. If the Dems increase the Hispanic turnout to merely the national average, they get a huge boost. Possible wave election.

Castro.

we are very different people, Chris Cillizza.

I am not watching some show about kids disappearing.

Same reason I hated that show I think that was on ABC this year about the kid coming back to his parents after 30 years.

No thank you.

Do you think the IRS situation is going to have any effect on 2016?

No. But it could further energize the GOP base coming into this year's midterms...

It's an open primary. Those are not new or unique to Mississippi. If anything , losing MS shows the problem with Tea Party blowhards who think they know everything yet can't even win a runoff against Cochran.

You play the game by the rules of the game.

Should he be worried that Hillary at the top of ticket combined with Blanche Lincoln taking a shot at him, puts his seat in play?

Nope.

It is funny you have used the Cochran perfect game analogy a couple of times while on the day of the runoff you had an entire article critical of the strategy not to use a commercial more!

And in that article I noted that I could be wrong and they could be right.

And then I wrote an entire piece explaining why they were right and I was wrong.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/06/24/how-thad-cochran-won/

Are they headed towards an epic clash? 2016 presidential primary?

No.  Neither will run.

But Rand Paul and Marco Rubio will...and that will be an epic clash of its own.

You ARE watching House of Cards, aren't you? I'm halfway through Season 2, it's pretty intense.

Um, no.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2013/08/29/why-i-hate-house-of-cards/

I find myself caring about soccer for the first time ever and I don't know why.

I got into soccer a few years back.

It appeals to me largely because of the larger than life personalities.  It's basically an athletic soap opera with GIANT stakes.

Duckworth or any other credible D won't be scared away by Kirk. The conservatism of national Republicans has pulled him more than he'll be able to withstand in a presidential cycle. And if Hillary is on the ticket, suburban women will turn out in record numbers.

Good point. Hillary at the top of the ticket would really help Democrats in an open seat situation in Illinois.

So, here's a question. Which election cycle, in your years in journalism, has been the most interesting/most fun to watch?

2008. Not close.

It's gotta be the Uruguayan ambassador, right? Or maybe all the Liverpool fans in DC.

And Fix Jr. Who is a GIANT Luis Suarez fan.

For Governor, Senator?

If Gillespie loses the Senate race this year (and I think he does) then he runs for governor in 17. I am not sure what Cantor's next play is; it might take him longer than three years to rehab.

Please get through it so you can enjoy the Clone Club Dance Party

OK.

Since they've axed Sherri Shephard and Jenny McCarthy, are you interested in a spot at the table with Whoopi? They need a male POV and you could opine on politics, fatherhood, tv, and soccer.

Ready and waiting.

If you were a vegetable what vegetable would you be and why?

Carrot. They make you smarter. Also, they are orange like my life mentor Tony Kornheiser.

Do you personally accept and reject questions submitted for your chats?

Nope. The one and only Jessica Stahl does that.

Has to be Rubio or Paul right now, right? They're the only two who have done actual work to expand the party's base

I think so. I'd put Walker in there too -- governor from the Midwest.

I mean really...would Sarah Palin really try to take Tea Partiers and start a third party?

Oh, who knows.

If she did, it would ensure Democrats would win the White House in 2016.

Right or wrong a lot of people look at Cantor and think he wasn't even on board and lost because of immigration reform!

True that they do. But not sure that's entirely born out by the facts of the race.

"Please run, Mike Pence!" -Oppo researchers everywhere, about the former talk radio host

Know who else was a former talk radio host? Chris McDaniel.

I just want to commend you on having the courage to post your (high school?) year book photo.

Yes, high school.

If you missed: http://k40.kn3.net/497A70E46.jpg

Can FIFA please schedule games at night? Where were you yesterday at 1pm?

I was at work.  Laptop on lap, glued to the TV.

If you could pick one rapper to spend the day with, who would you pick?

Q-Tip

It's still a ways off from here, but how much chance would you give to teachers union chief Karen Lewis, if she takes on Rahm in Chicago? He's raised a lot of $, but has abysmal poll numbers right now.

Hard to beat a sitting incumbent mayor.  They have tons of strings that can be pulled. And Rahm will not be taken by surprise.

Let's get down to important matters. Which hairstyle of his was best?

All of them.

Ann Coulter said "No one whose Great-Grandfather was born in this country likes soccer" Where were your Great-Grandfathers born?

Italy!

Honorary pick by NBA of former Baylor star Isaiah Austin. Can we get NBA Commissioner Silver to run for office?

It was outstanding.

But the best moment was that UCLA guy swearing/being pissed for getting drafted by the T-Wolves tied with Andrew Wiggins suit jacket.

Percentage chance she runs and get the nomination? Has it moved at all given the not-so-great book tour, or is that just minor noise in the grand scheme of things?

90% that she runs

85% that she is the nominee

Book tour has not been good.  But, who is going to beat her.

News outlets in the state now reporting that McDaniel supporters are alleging that they've found examples of several hundred voters who voted in the Democratic primary yet also voted in the Republican runoff. Any substance to that, and if so, does that mean this insanity drags on longer?

It will definitely go on longer.

But, remember that McDaniel lost by almost 7K votes.

like you and tech nerds watch soccer. Rugby and sheepherding trials are the two toughest sports on the planet. They also have the best parties and the hottest women. Only thing worse than soccer is field hockey.

I know this "question" is entirely designed to make me angry.  Which it has.

Fair, Serious, or Critical Condition?

Serious condition.  Guarded.

Way to rock the giant specs!

Thanks. It was all the rage back then. Actually, not at all.

That's all folks.  We do this every Friday but not next Friday because it's July 4th!

Enjoy the holiday week and root like hell for Team USA on Tuesday.

Chris

 

In This Chat
Chris Cillizza
Chris Cillizza is the managing editor of PostPolitics and he writes "The Fix," a politics blog for The Washington Post. He also covers the White House for the newspaper and website. Chris has appeared as a guest on NBC, CBS, ABC, MSNBC, Fox News Channel and CNN to talk politics. He lives in Virginia with his wife and sons.
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