The Fix Live

Jun 20, 2014

The Fix's Chris Cillizza discussed the latest in political news.

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Good morning!

The Republican party chose two new leaders yesterday -- without all that much drama.

President Obama committed 300 troops to Iraq.

And England and Spain are out of the World Cup.

Lots to talk about.

Are congressional candidates saying anything about the current situation in Iraq? If so, what?

Not much because there's not any good (meaning politically popular) things to say.

Liberal Dems are warning about the slippery slope of going back into Iraq. Conservative/hawkish Republicans are insisting we need to be even more aggressive.

Remember that the public is VERY war weary and not at all interested in going back to Iraq for any reason.

It's a very tough spot for politicians up to and including President Obama.

Why do I always pick England to advance?

I do too.

Not sure. I think because we are so familiar with their players because of the EPL.

How should I pick an EPL team? I'd like one that competes, has a player or two or three I'd recognize from the World Cup, preferably ones who score. Is there anyone younger than Suarez whose bandwagon I can jump on or is that player likely to be transferred anyway?

Tottenham?

Liverpool is a good choice. They are good and going to get better.

Everton?

Jim Webb for VP?

Um, no. He doesn't like people.

Which team has surprised you the most favorably? Unfavorably? (OK, we know it's Spain, but who else?)

I think Colombia has looked really good.

I don't think Brazil has been all so great just yet...

Will other Republicans tell him to turn it down a notch? I don't think a referendum on sending boots on the ground in Iraq is what the GOP wants the midterms to be about.

No one can tell McCain to "turn it down a notch." He believes deeply in this stuff and is going to keep speaking out whether it's a good or bad thing for the party's political prospects.

Worth noting: I am not convinced that McCain calling for a more aggressive response on Iraq does much of anything to the overall national political landscape.

If neither Christie or Jeb runs in 2016, who represents the traditional GOP wing?

Walker, Rubio or Kasich.

Odds that he runs for re-election in 2016 and odds that if he does he loses his primary.

I don't think he will run for reelection.  But if he does, he probably wins. I am skeptical that beating him in a primary is as easy as some people think. Just ask J.D. Hayworth.

Now that they have signed back to a series with Syracuse, the Hoyas will have to deal with half their arena filled with Orange. That won't be a happy moment for you and other Hoya fans.

Lot of chin-strapped beards and smoking.

Wow, Doug Gansler was handing out flyers at Grosvenor-Strathmore Metro this morning. Am I that strategically important, or is he that desperate?

Little of both!

And the primary is on Tuesday. Every vote counts.

Joni Ernst or Mary Landrieu? Thom Tillis or Cory Gardner? Mead Treadwell or Scott Brown?

Landrieu

Tillis

Brown

Bruce Rauner or Mary Burke?

Rauner for sure.

At what point is it media malpractice for covering a story too little? Schweitzer was never running for president, but had he had an R next to his name rather than a D his comments would have undoubtedly been much more publicized, correct?

We covered it pretty aggressively in The Fix.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/06/18/the-brian-schweitzer-presidential-speculation-was-fun-while-it-lasted/

He insists hes staying, especially in the cantor aftermath. However, only about 20 Republican votes are needed to deprive him of 218, which seems not just possible, but probable. Why is the media not covering this more?

I personally have written a ton about it.

At the moment, there's not much more to say.  He says he is running for Speaker again.  I think he may have a tough time winning on the first ballot.

I touched on all of this in my analysis yesterday on what the last 9 days changed (and didn't) for Republicans. That's here: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/06/19/whats-changed-in-the-republican-party-in-the-last-9-days-and-what-hasnt/

Has Ed Gillespie turned this into a competitive race? And does anyone outside Southwest Virginia care about the EPA's carbon dioxide regulations?

Not competitive yet.  I think Gillespie loses by 10-15 unless the national environment completely collapses for Mark Warner.

Do you think his passing up the House Majority Leadership means that he is considering a run for president?

I suppose so.

I think it shows how cautious he is and how he is really looking at the long game.  Ryan is young and knows that trying to lead the House right now is an impossible task.

So, he bides his time chairing Ways and Means and sees how things sort themselves out.

And, no, I still don't think he is running for president in 2016.

Whose campaign has gotten off to a better start?

Real battle for last there.

I will say Brown by a nose.

Who is in bigger political trouble right now?

Well, Walker because he has to run for reelection this fall.

 

After viewing Clinton's ackward interviews and Christie's grinding belly dancing, Rand Paul is looking better and better everyday. What do ya think?

I continue to think the DC political establishment underestimates Rand's capacity.

In your opinion is David Carr of the NYT correct that newpaper reporters are spread too thin and computer information too enticing so that old fashioned "boots on the ground" reporting didn't happen and Eric Cantor's loss was a suprise to NY and DC journalists.

I wrote a whole response to David's piece. It's here: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/06/16/should-i-have-seen-eric-cantors-loss-coming/

Can we please stop blaming Wayne Rooney for all of England's woes? Forty-five percent (45%) of England's starting team were the lot that capitulated in the last days of the season and handed the title to City. Coincidence? I think not.

Correct. I actually thought Wazza along with Glen Johnson were the two best players for England yesterday.

How much trouble is he in, on a scale of 1-10?

6.

I'm just wrapping up What It Takes, which pretty much everyone considers the best presidential campaign book. Now, I'm fixing to read biographies of our two main parties. Any suggestions?

Yes!

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/12/05/the-best-of-the-best-presidential-biographies-2/

If Cantor was considered the front runner for Speaker, what's stopping the sensible wing of the GOP from electing him to the post anyway? Why is nobody talking about this possibility?

Because while the Speaker of the House doesn't have to be a sitting member, it is always going to be one.

And, I am not sure sure Cantor was so overwhelmingly popular with this colleagues that they would put him up for the Speakership after he leaves Congress.

So what team is the England of American Sports? I say the NY Jets- haven't won since the 60's. Fans think they have a chance every year only to be heartborken. What say The Fix?

The Cubs?

Gotta be Schweitzer, right?

Nope....Other guesses?

Does WWIW stand for Worst Week in Wisconsin today?

Maybe in Wisconsin. But not in Washington...Guesses?

If Italy beats Costa Rica, England must then beat Costa Rica while overcoming goal differential.

It's like a 3% chance. But I like your optimism.

More important to his selection as Majority Whip: Ideology: being seen as the "true conservative" in leadership OR Region: Southerners wanting to be represented in the top ranks of leadership

Region/geography.

Should I buy Hard Choices?

Do you like reading about foreign policy?

My local supermarket has already discounted England / World Cup related merchandise by 50% And the guy across the road from me snapped off the flags he had on his car.

My main question: WHY is Gerrard starting?

Who comes out on top? Shannon or Lankford McDaniel or Cochran Tenney or Hanna Tancredo or ?

In MS, I think McDaniel has to be considered the frontrunner. My question: If you weren't for Thad Cochran on June 3, why would you be for him on June 24? He's been in the Senate for 36 years.

In OK, I am guessing Shannon over Lankford. But that one looks like a real toss up -- and a great race.

I know this may sound like one of those absurd switcheroo ideas (like swapping Hillary for veep in 2012 which everyone knew would never happen) -- But -- Say Hillary Clinton is elected in 2016. Do you think there's any possibility of Joe Biden becoming Secretary of State? Also, is it too soon to speculate who she picks for VP if she gets the nomination? (My dream? Gillibrand or Baldwin, although I know that's so unlikely.) Someone like O'Malley? Safe?

I don't think Biden would serve in a Clinton Administration. But then again, I didn't think Clinton would serve in an Obama Administration.

So what the heck do I know?

I'm chatting, using the ESPN Draft machine, drinking Starbucks, and waiting for matches to start.

AWESOME.

Stop by our Fix World Cup pool while you're at it!

Yet another season where everyone ignores the impending Ice Zombie invasion. I'm starting to think this is a thinly veiled climate change analogy.

Well, the Wildlings are trying to cut a deal to get south of the wall to avoid the White Walkers...so not totally ignored.

Re the earlier question about Gansler campaigning at the Metro. While I don't think he's favored, I'd say that tactic sure beats having meetings at a Capitol Hill Starbucks and simply skipping Election Day in your own Congressional district. Nothing wrong at all with meeting voters face to face. Eric Cantor apparently should have tried it sometime.

Agree.

And Gansler is a definite underdog to Anthony Brown.

Dan Snyder and his Redskins Logo

Close! Runner up.

How about Raul Labrador? He had a bad convention and didn't get any traction for leader. Now he's behind Scalise in leadership.

Eh. No one thought he had a chance.

And the winner of the Worst Week in Washington is....

President Obama.

 

Lay me out a scenario that gets him to 270.

Randwagon is tremendous.

And I am just talking about winning the GOP nomination at the moment.  

To be clear: I don't Rand is a favorite for the Republican nod. I just think he has a better chance than many people in DC think he does.

But their destiny in the hands of others. You always think that England will go through because of the EPL, but so many of those players are not English. I think that steps up the game of other nations, and England underestimates that. And I think the English media doesn't help either.

True.

Where are you posting? What are you listening to? What are you drinking?

Sitting at my desk!

New Jack White album

Polished off of a venti chai tea latte before chat even started!

Will there ever be a place for an honest, responsible, reasonable, intelligent, intellectually honest, John Huntsman?

One of the Huntsman sisters is on the chat!

From 0 (Sherman) to 100 (Paul) what are the chances that Jeb Bush runs for President in 2016, especially considering everyone's been reminded of Iraq?

57

Nobody outside of New Jersey believes the Jets can win. I note the Redskins have won every off-season since 1982. The Cowboys are deluded fools for sticking with Romo. Then there's the Broncos and their injured quarterback.

I loved this -- except the shot at true American hero Peyton Manning.

Enough about England's failure (and I read they have a 7.6% chance BTW)- I like the US chances of advancing. Am I overly optimistic? And one other note- how much do you think work place productivity has suffered with the World Cup in the US- are we becoming a soccer nation?

My gosh...I don't know. I was surprised US beat Ghana. But Portugal is not Ghana. And we have no chance of beating Germany.

Obama? He wins a poll on issues but his personal appeal brings him down.

Correct!

Has to be Nouri al-Maliki, right?

Not a great one...

Since everyone was talking about where they were during the chase, where was the teenage Mr. Fix watching it? Me - I was in my mid-20s watching it in my summer share house in the Hamptons. Didn't even really mind missing Game 5.

Remember it vividly.

Me and my high school friends had just graduated -- top of the world ma! -- and were at a buddy's house in Key West.

I watched that damn Bronco chase for HOURS straight. Still a surreal story.

If McCain retires, who is the best the Dems have?

Janet Napolitano if she wants it.

Thad Cochran and his comment about doing weird things with animals?

If Cochran loses Tuesday's runoff, he's got the jump on Worst Week for next week.

If he was, he'd be filling my TV like Hillary and Christie, showing us what regular folks they be.

I don't think he is either.  But, he is a sphinx-like dude. Very hard to read.

Before Manning went to Denver, this would be easy: the Chargers. The powder blue unis, Rivers, Gates, the weather all made them look better than they were.

I just received an email from MD Gov Martin O'Malley telling me how excited he was to be coming to Iowa. I am dubious. Is he running for something?

Um, yes. President.

Does the scandal most affect his prospects for 2014, 2015 (money/buzz-raising), or 2016?

Stories in which your name and "scandal" are in the headline are never good. How bad it is for Walker very much remains to be seen.

Pete Roskam?

Not a good week. But plenty of people had worse ones.

Move team to LA, change the name? NFL forces him to change the name? Sell the team, change the name? Admit he was wrong?

He will NEVER sell the team.

And I can't imagine him moving the team either.

I think we are in an old-fashioned standoff for the foreseeable future.

How did the high school reunion go? (assume you didn't talk about the OJ-Bronco journey)

Two hour delay. Then sat on plane on taramc for 2 hours. Then they canceled flight. No other flights had seats that could get me there in time.

Missed it. Sucked.

Who had the BWIW? (Best Week in Washington)

That dude above...he is loving life!

So even though he tries to renouce his Canadian Citizenship, he can't escape the fact he was born in Alberta. Does he still run for President?

He absolutely runs.

What do you make of Ted Cruz's invitation to treat Hous GOP members to an evening of pizza and fellowship? I thought he had left a bad taste in their mouths when he led the charge on defunding Obamacare, only to leave them hanging in the end by saying they had to hold firm, because there was nothing more he could do in the Senate.

He is running for president and wants to be seen -- inside and outside of Washington -- as the tea party guy.

House in the Hamptons? Key West? Is this the Rockefeller chat or what?

So true.

Given how poorly he's been campaigning, given how little enthusiasm he seems to display, every ambitious young politician in Mississippi has to be annoyed with him for running again. Chris McDaniel could be in the Senate for 30 years.

McDaniel is only 41. And if he wins that seat, it's going to be hard to knock off a Republican incumbent in Mississippi.

All this talk about England's soccer team when America's Team is one win away from advancing. USA! USA! USA! USA!!

Good point. I think the US-Ghana game was the most exciting of the tournament so far.

I missed the OJ chase because I went to see "Speed" with my roommates. Which happens to feature Keanu Reeves driving a white Bronco for much of the movie. It was kind of mind blowing to come home and see the recaps of what had happened on the streets of LA that evening.

Johnny Utah.

Who's the political equivalent of the three-eyed raven?

Oooh. Good question. The sort of political sage type....maybe Bill Clinton for Democrats?  Who could it be for Republicans?

I submit the name of Jay Carney

No doubt.

Cleveland Browns. They were good once, but now linger in disappointment.

And Bernie Kosar and Wayne Rooney have similar hair issues.

I have France 2-1. Is that too much respect for the Swiss given how slick France looked or will there be a regression to the mean with all the scoring from the first set of games?

Without Ribery, I don't see how France can keep it up. I do think they make the knockout round though.

An Obama 3rd term amendment passing Congress, England advancing

Obama 3rd term

England

I wonder about him too. He is the ONLY Republican that I've seen who could bridge the gap and get Democrats to vote for him, but the base is so hard core.

Huntsman has zero future in the current incarnation of the Republican party. None.

and worried that a vote for Mizeur will split the Brown vote and let Gansler in.

So he's going for the Dick Cheney wing? I know he wants to contrast himself with Rand Paul but this seems like short-term thinking.

Rubio and Ted Cruz are staking out hawkish positions on foreign policy. I think this is aimed at isolating Rand Paul whose views are, admittedly, not in the mainstream of Republican thought.

Who from the GOP candidates currently running could you see entering into the Senate leadership if they got to DC?

Maybe Tillis (He is state House Speaker in NC.) Tom Cotton in Arkansas. Rounds in SD.

In the morning fix, you suggest that Boehner can't leave because he can't leave the party in the hands of a new group of leaders. And I'm guessing typically, if a speaker leaves, the majority leader likely steps up. But I can't help but wonder about Paul Ryan. I know he supposedly wasn't interested in the Majority leader, and as a Democrat I'm not fond of the guy's politics, but he has at least seemed reasonable to me. Let's say Boehner does decide he's done with the crazy, could Ryan jump to Speaker from a nonleadership position (not counting committee chairs..).

He absolutely could run for Speaker and might be the favorite to be the Speaker.

I just get no sense that he is interested in trying to lead House Republicans right now.

That was Keanu in Point Break, with Patrick Swayze as Bodhi and the masked Presidential bank robbers. Speed is the one with Sandra Bullock and the runaway bus. Loved 'em both.

I KNOW!

Keanu will ALWAYS be Johnny Utah for me in every movie. Including The Matrix.

"I AM AN FBI AGENT!"

If he was 10 years younger, would he be a plausible presidential candidate?

YES.  A popular governor of California has a lot of built in advantages in a Democratic presidential primary race.

USA over Portugal 1-0

BOLD.

Howard keeps a clean sheet against CR7!

Is it really true that Mitt Romney is serious about trying again in 2016?

No.

Odds that he physically assaults Rand Paul in public before the 2016 election?

1 in 4.

I'm an American who's part Portuguese and part German. I've felt so conflicted about Group G, you can't imagine.

Ze Germans are unstoppable.

Is it odd that national people are not paying attention to Ohio this year?

Gov race is marginally competitive. Not much else. We will be talking about it again in 2016 for sure.

That's all folks!

We do this chat every Friday from 11-noon. Spread the word.

Have a great weekend and go US!

Chris

In This Chat
Chris Cillizza
Chris Cillizza is the managing editor of PostPolitics and he writes "The Fix," a politics blog for The Washington Post. He also covers the White House for the newspaper and website. Chris has appeared as a guest on NBC, CBS, ABC, MSNBC, Fox News Channel and CNN to talk politics. He lives in Virginia with his wife and sons.
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