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June 13, 2014

11:01
A.M.

The Fix Live

Total Responses: 68

About the hosts

About the host

Host: Chris Cillizza

Chris Cillizza

Chris Cillizza is the managing editor of PostPolitics and he writes "The Fix," a politics blog for The Washington Post. He also covers the White House for the newspaper and website. Chris has appeared as a guest on NBC, CBS, ABC, MSNBC, Fox News Channel and CNN to talk politics. He lives in Virginia with his wife and sons.

About the topic

The Fix's Chris Cillizza discussed the latest in political news.

Follow @TheFix on Twitter.
Q.

Chris Cillizza :

Happy Friday everyone!

Right after this chat I am hopping a plane to Connecticut to speak at my old high school.

First line: "And you all said I would never amount to anything...."

It's been an AMAZING week in politics. Eric Cantor anyone? And the World Cup is one. And the new Jack White album is out. Man!

Let's do this thing.

Q.

Cantor

Eric Cantor is so conservative he opposed disaster aid for his own district after the east coast earthquake (and this isn't why he lost!) but he wasn't conservative enough for the 'true' believers? I'm confused!

A.
Chris Cillizza :

He was part of the GOP leadership (strike one), had seemed willing to consider some immigration reforms (strike two) and spent more time cementing his status as the #2 in the House than in working his district (strike three).

– June 13, 2014 11:03 AM
Q.

WWIW...

Fix Jr. could make the call for this week--and I'm not knocking Fix Jr.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Yeah.  Kind of an easy one...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/who-had-the-worst-week-in-washington-house-majority-leader-eric-cantor-r-va/2014/06/12/185fcf10-f262-11e3-bf76-447a5df6411f_story.html

– June 13, 2014 11:04 AM
Q.

VIrginia 7th

Size up the race between two Randolph-Macon College professors? Does Cantor run a write-in campaign? Chances of success?

A.
Chris Cillizza :

Cantor has said he won't run as a write-in.

Dave Brat, the Republican, is a very clear favorite. This is a Republican district made more Republican in the last round of redistricting.

– June 13, 2014 11:05 AM
Q.

Cantor and the Tea Party

Hi Chris -- thanks for taking questions today. I'm sure your in box is flooded with Cantor-related questions, but the thing I'd most like to know is whether you think this is fluke of inattentiveness on Cantor's part or instead a sign of things to come. Does it, for instance, serve as a warning to Cochran in MS that he'd better up his game to avoid the same outcome?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Lightning struck.

Now, does that give tea partiers running against other establishment Republicans around the country a burst of energy and enthusiasm? Sure.  

But to draw broad conclusions about Dave Brat as the future of the GOP is a bit far fetched.

– June 13, 2014 11:06 AM
Q.

Cantor

Were the votes for Brat or against Cantor? Is it possible the Democrats could win the seat? Do you think that Cantor's religion and the newly aligned voting district hurt him? Thanks Chris.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Brat did what all good challengers do: Make the case for why the incumbent needs to be fired and then present yourself as a credible alternative.

– June 13, 2014 11:07 AM
Q.

Polling

How many clients do you think John McLaughlin has lost in the last 72 hours?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Not been a great week for Eric Cantor's pollster. He made the "losers" list in my assessment of the race.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/06/11/winners-and-losers-from-eric-cantors-astounding-primary-defeat/

– June 13, 2014 11:08 AM
Q.

Cantor

Immigration wasn't happening anyway. Kevin McCarthy is a quintessential insider. He's also the guy who would have become majority leader had Cantor been struck by lightning. So did Cantor's defeat really matter?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Not as much as I would have thought, to be honest. I am still stunned that McCarthy won his promotion to Majority Leader so easily.

Read this on that: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/06/13/the-tea-party-in-congress-talking-loud-doing-nothing/

– June 13, 2014 11:09 AM
Q.

Worst Week

Brazil flopping at the World Cup.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Flopping as in falling over dramatically? Or losing?  Because they did the first but not the second.

– June 13, 2014 11:10 AM
Q.

Eric Cantor

Does he run for office again? On one hand, this loss is not how you would want to go out. On the other, like Lowell Weicker, it probably doesn't matter. He will always be remembered by this loss.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

For sure.

Either for gov in 2017 or for one of the state's Senate seats held by Democrats.

 

– June 13, 2014 11:11 AM
Q.

DID YOU HEAR? National Seersucker Day!

Eric Cantor rousted! In other news, it was also National Seersucker Day--woefully overlooked by the media this year! Thankfully DC Fishbowl posted a snap and a writeup.

A.
Chris Cillizza :

I love national seersucker day. I have seersucker suit of my own...never worn.

Yet.

– June 13, 2014 11:13 AM
Q.

Brazil

How bad of a penalty kick call was that in the Croatia game yesterday.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Atrocious.

– June 13, 2014 11:14 AM
Q.

Welcome or not?

I have no idea how collegial House Republicans are, but will they welcome Brat with open arms or be irked that he knocked off the Majority Leader?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Oh, I think many will miss Cantor but they a) will move on quickly and b) won;t hold it against Brat.

These people understand this is a business.

– June 13, 2014 11:14 AM
Q.

Midwest Governorships

Who is more vulnerable, Rick Snyder or Scott Walker?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Walker, slightly.

I think of the Big 3 in the Midwest, it goes like this -- most vulnerable to least

1. Walker

2. Snyder

3. Kasich.

That said, I think all three prob win.

– June 13, 2014 11:16 AM
Q.

Geography

Is the Cantor loss a bigger deal because he was Majority Leader or because his district is so close to the Washington press bubble?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

The former. This has NEVER happened in the history of the Republic -- a Majority Leader losing a primary -- so, yeah, it's a big deal.

– June 13, 2014 11:18 AM
Q.

Majority Leader

Is it Kevin McCarthy's job?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Absolutely. At the moment, no one is even running against him. Which is so amazing to me.

– June 13, 2014 11:18 AM
Q.

Brat

Odds he wins in the general election?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

85%.

– June 13, 2014 11:18 AM
Q.

The Fix

Are you still writing it, or is Jaime Fuller? Are you going to be on MSNBC more? When do you get your own show and leave us? Sniff...
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Of course I am still writing. We have a staff of three right now -- Jaime Fuller, Aaron Blake and Philip Bump -- but more to come!

– June 13, 2014 11:19 AM
Q.

Chris Christie is feelin' good

Clear indicator that Chris Christie is feeling more confident about his redemption from Bridgegate - dancing with Jimmy Fallon on the Tonight Show. Plus lots of other news that is pushing Bridgegate off the front page is good for him. Right?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Correct.

And the dancing segment is freaking amazing.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/06/13/here-is-a-video-of-chris-christie-dancing-for-nearly-three-minutes/

– June 13, 2014 11:20 AM
Q.

I'm Ready for Hillary rolls forward

Given the book publication, the media barrage, and the gaudily wrapped bus (wrapping done by a Des Moines, IA firm), what (if anything) would make her decide not to run?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Not really. If she is in good health -- and we have every indication she is -- then she's running.

– June 13, 2014 11:21 AM
Q.

Lindsey Graham

I am shocked that he coasted to victory. A year ago when Mace got in the race I thought Republicans in SC and nationally would have rallied around her (A conservative woman to expand the base)... How did he do it?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

He is a REALLY good politician. 

Read this: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/06/12/resolved-lindsey-graham-is-a-very-very-good-politician/

– June 13, 2014 11:21 AM
Q.

Battle

Is the battle between Tea Party and establishment within the GOP be close to the battle between you and Fix Aaron for control of the Fix.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Not even close.  Ours is FAR more fierce. And mean spirited.

– June 13, 2014 11:22 AM
Q.

San Antonio

Boring Basketball team and city...... That is all.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Couldn't disagree more. As someone who loves basketball and still plays all the time, watching San Antonio play is exhilarating.

I think how the Heat play is boring. LeBron holds the ball for 15 seconds and then bulls someone over.

– June 13, 2014 11:22 AM
Q.

Cantor

Must say, as a follower of politics, he came off very likeable in his next day press conference. More so than any leadership presser.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

I thought he did a really good job in an incredibly difficult circumstances.  Optimistic and big when negative and small are so easy to do.

– June 13, 2014 11:23 AM
Q.

World Cup

True or false: the US beats Ghana and makes it out of group play.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

I think we beat Ghana. I don't think we make it out of group play.

– June 13, 2014 11:24 AM
Q.

Fallon Dancing

Does Hillary ever dance on The Tonight Show?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

I say she does.

– June 13, 2014 11:24 AM
Q.

Harrison Ford

He got hurt making another Star Wars movie. Does that dim hopes for another awful Indiana Jones movie?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

The last one was so bad I had to do a "Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless mind" thing on my brain to forget I watched it.

– June 13, 2014 11:25 AM
Q.

First time it's happened, but similar loss

Tom Foley, if memory serves.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Right.  The only roughly equivalent sized shock in the House in all of my years.

– June 13, 2014 11:25 AM
Q.

best defense is a good offense

Cantor/Graham. Cantor attacked his opponent while Lindsay attacked Obama. One got Cantored and one skated to victory.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Terrific use of "Cantored".

– June 13, 2014 11:26 AM
Q.

Father's Day

Any special plans with Fix Jr. and Fix III?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Just getting to spending the day with them and my wife is plenty. I am really blessed and lucky.

– June 13, 2014 11:26 AM
Q.

85%...

I guess the 15% is the odds he pulls a "Todd Akin" and says/does something between now and election day to make him unelectable - which is possible for any prohibitive favorite, right?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

That is correct.

– June 13, 2014 11:27 AM
Q.

#3

Peter Roskam v Steve Scalise...... Who would you put money on?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Scalise. Because movement conservatives/tea party types need a voice in leadership and they know it.

But Roskam is smart and able. Wouldn't rule him out.

– June 13, 2014 11:27 AM
Q.

WC today

I have 1-0 in all 3 games. Plausible?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Always in soccer...

– June 13, 2014 11:28 AM
Q.

surprise, surprise

Why were you and the rest of Washington so surprised by the fall of Cantor when the Post ran a story weeks ago saying Brat was gaining on him? In a primary with such a tiny turnout, anything can happen, right?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Absolutely.

But "something" almost never happens.

– June 13, 2014 11:28 AM
Q.

World Cup

I (most likely very foolishly) have USA advancing to the quarter finals. I blame Grantland and their "The US will TOTALLY win" attitude for giving me a false sense of security and that ESPN American Outlaws ad that makes me tear up for no reason.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Check out The Fix World Cup brackets on ESPN. Not a lot of USA believers -- kind of like Klinsmann! BOOM!

http://games.espn.go.com/world-cup-bracket-predictor/2014/en/group?groupID=60764

– June 13, 2014 11:31 AM
Q.

GOP in the House

Ok so as far as the upcoming election -- what happens to the GOP in the House with the loss of their majority leader? Do they gain more seats? Lose more seats? Maybe this doesn't matter in 2014 because who who votes.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Doesn't matter for 2014 at all.

– June 13, 2014 11:31 AM
Q.

Lousy constituent service

Sean Trende wrote an interesting piece over on RCP about how Cantor was rarely seen in the district and his office didn't return phone calls. Isn't that what really did him in?

A.
Chris Cillizza :

I think there was a sense that he was focused nationally and not locally. And that clearly hurt him.

– June 13, 2014 11:32 AM
Q.

If McCarthy is the new Majority Leader

then it seems that Boehner shouldn't have much trouble winning the Speakership again, right?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Here;s that theory: The tea party doesn't love McCarthy any more than they love Boehner and aren't keen on replacing Boehner with McCarthy.

And, taking it a step further, that same group may not like Boehner but they know he is capable -- and they have questions about McCarthy on that front.

I can see it. But I can also see how Cantor's defeat simply destabilizes things in the GOP leadership in the medium term, which should open the door for more conservative candidates to make their mark.

– June 13, 2014 11:33 AM
Q.

Tomorrow

Actually looking forward to England vs Italy tomorrow evening.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Me too. Although that has the potential to be a VERY dull game given the way Italy plays.

– June 13, 2014 11:34 AM
Q.

Peter Roskam

If he loses out... Does he bide his time until the next fight, or retire?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Bides his time would be my guess. As this week showed, lots of unexpected things keep happening.

– June 13, 2014 11:35 AM
Q.

Speaker McCarthy?

How likely? How Soon?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Not sure.  Maybe not ever.

– June 13, 2014 11:35 AM
Q.

Remaining primary contests

Which ones are you watching closely? Any potential for further painful upsets?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

MS runoff. That's the biggie.

– June 13, 2014 11:35 AM
Q.

Question

I was wondering why the Post didn't send you to Brazil for the World Cup?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

I was wondering the same...

– June 13, 2014 11:35 AM
Q.

Cameroon vs Mexico

Its raining at that game. It should be fun to watch.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

That will be a good one. Noon?

– June 13, 2014 11:36 AM
Q.

Virginia Governorship

Will both Gillespie and Cantor now be vying for the job? Or will both run for the Senate if Hillary picks Kaine?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

I think 2o17 looks like Gillespie and Bolling...and maybe Cantor.

And if Kaine goes, then all bets are off. Man that would be an amazing few years in VA politics.

– June 13, 2014 11:37 AM
Q.

Fix Aaron

How soon till you call Fix Aaron: Boss?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

He already make me do that.

– June 13, 2014 11:37 AM
Q.

McCarthy

So McCarthy as a placeholder for Paul Ryan?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

I don't think he's a placeholder for anyone. But, getting elected Majority Leader and getting elected Speaker are two very different things.

– June 13, 2014 11:38 AM
Q.

Sarah Palin

Did Sarah Palin endorse Eric Cantor or David Brat in the primary?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Neither as far as I know.

– June 13, 2014 11:39 AM
Q.

Kevin McCarthy

He strikes me as exciting no one in the republican party.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

But not really offending anyone either. Which may be his secret to success.

– June 13, 2014 11:39 AM
Q.

So...

what exactly does a Majority Leader do, anyway? The Speaker runs the House. The Whips tally the votes. Isn't the Majority Leader just a nice title and office, without much actual responsibility?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

He is in charge of directing the policy agenda.  It's an important gig.

– June 13, 2014 11:40 AM
Q.

Obama for Senate

Can we expect stories about Michelle running in '16 for the Senate seat in Illinois.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

There will be speculation. But she has repeatedly made clear she has no interest in doing it.

– June 13, 2014 11:40 AM
Q.

Brat getting name recognition from Cantor's commercials

It is somewhat ironic that the only reason voters in the district knew about Brat was from Cantor's negative commercials. So count this as one real case where negative campaigning actually backfired.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Correcto.

– June 13, 2014 11:40 AM
Q.

Cantor

The speculation is kind of silly IMO. He lost because he's a jerk and his constituency figured it out. I'll bet half of them didn't know Brat from the mailman.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

"Better"? Not sure how to answer that.

I think McCarthy is more naturally personable than Cantor, which might help with his Member relations.  But he's far less policy oriented than Cantor.

– June 13, 2014 11:41 AM
Q.

The Cooter factor in Cantor's loss

How much, if any, of a factor was former Congressman Ben "Cooter" Jones in Eric Cantor's loss? Is there data yet on the number of Democrats who voted in the primary?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Not much of one -- despite what the Cantor people say.

Read this: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/06/11/did-democratic-votes-doom-eric-cantor/

– June 13, 2014 11:45 AM
Q.

Kentucky 5th

Do you see a scenario where Greg Stumbo could put this seat in play for Democrats? Maybe if Hillary is leading the ticket in 2016?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Nope.

– June 13, 2014 11:45 AM
Q.

Cantor's Future

Do you really think he has broad enough appeal for Senate or Governor? His whole shtick is sour arrogance, not the best calling card.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Not sure his schtick is "sour arrogance"....

I don't know if he could run and win statewide. He would be able to raise money without question but might struggle if someone was in the race running to his ideological right.

– June 13, 2014 11:46 AM
Q.

Your welcome

I bugged you into making a World Cup group, you did, and it seems to be successful.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Thank you!

– June 13, 2014 11:46 AM
Q.

Christie Dance

Ammunition for democratic negative TV ads? I can see it now... "First Christie danced around the bridge scandal. Now, he's try to dance his way back for another term..." etc, etc.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Maybe. But I think he does himself a lot of good by going on national TV and having some fun. Helps to humanize him, which is always a good thing for politicians.

– June 13, 2014 11:48 AM
Q.

Who is Philip Bump?

And is that his real name?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

He's the newest member of the Fix posse. And that is absolutely his own -- and awesome -- name.

– June 13, 2014 11:49 AM
Q.

Ron Johnson

He strikes me as vulnerable. Not because he has done anything wrong, but people in WI, and in DC, really like Russ Feingold and think they made a mistake in 2010..... Agree?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

RonJon will face a very tough race in 2016. Feingold probably has the right of first refusal but Ron Kind badly wants to run too.

– June 13, 2014 11:49 AM
Q.

McCarthy

Does his promotion now make him the poster boy for the GOP attempted comeback in CA? Does he run for Gov. in 4 years?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

No. He is too politically smart for that.  California isn't electing a Republican governor for a while.

– June 13, 2014 11:50 AM
Q.

Names

Hulk, Fred, Oscar. Do you call each other Chris, Aaron, etc. or do you work in comic book characters in the office too?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Hulk is the best name ever. Aside from Socrates.

– June 13, 2014 11:51 AM
Q.

Dems in VA's 7th.

I noticed Cantor's campaign manager blamed Democrats for voting in the primary against Cantor. How true is this? Cantor's vote totals in 2014 were close to what they were in 2012 - yet he got walloped this time.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Not true. See above.

– June 13, 2014 11:51 AM
Q.

Schadenfreude

Who knew schadenfreude translated into English as Boehner?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

HA!

– June 13, 2014 11:52 AM
Q.

So . . . .

Georgetown is going to play Syracuse again. The Miami Heat seem to be on the verge of losing to the Spurs and Dumb and Dumber To is coming out this fall. Not much else to talk about this week is there?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Pretty quiet week.

– June 13, 2014 11:52 AM
Q.

PA Gov

Should Corbett start packing up his office or does he have a snowball's chance?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

I'd invest in some boxes if I were him.

– June 13, 2014 11:52 AM
Q.

WC pick

Cameroon advancing? Explain.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Just got a feeling. And Mexico is overrated.

– June 13, 2014 11:53 AM
Q.

Scott Walker

If he wins with only 51% or so, does that hurt his chances at the GOP presidential nomination?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

I don't think it matters. Win is a win.

– June 13, 2014 11:53 AM
Q.

Jungle Primary

Could McCarthy be in real trouble if the conservatives get two cracks at him in both primary and general in 16?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

I suppose...I think the Cantor loss should make ANYONE in leadership in either party a little nervous..

– June 13, 2014 11:54 AM
Q.

Chris Cillizza :

That's all folks!

If you are in CT this weekend, come see me. I am speaking tomorrow at Loomis Chaffee in Windsor, CT.  It will rock. Lots of score settling ;)

We do this thing every Friday at 11 am. Spread the word!

Q.

 

A.
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