The Fix Live

May 30, 2014

The Fix's Chris Cillizza discussed the latest in political news.

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Good Friday morning everyone!  

Eric Shinseki update: Not fired as of 11:01 am.

Let's do this thing.

Using a broad def of WWIW... has to be David Dewhurst. 2 years ago he was looking at a nice title to cap off his career as US Senator, now he has 2 huge loses in 2 years.

A really really bad week and last two years for the Dew.

He went from being the odds-on favorite to be a U.S. Senator to getting 35% in a GOP runoff for his old job on Tuesday.

Greek. Tragedy. 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/05/27/the-greek-tragedy-that-is-david-dewhursts-political-career/

If they couldn't decide a winner on spelling, why not arm wrestle as a tie breaker?

I would have preferred a best 4 out of 7 rock, paper, scissors.  Or maybe a "first man over the top rope" type situation.

The political media has managed to turn a complex issue like veterans' health care into a drama about whether someone in Washington will be fired. How did you get so get at trivializing important matters?

I get the feeling you don't really mean to congratulate me....

Can you explain to me why Obama seems so determined to keep Eric Shinseki in his cabinet, despite all evidence to the contrary that Shinseki is a bad administrator who doesn't know what is going on under his nose? What is the upside to retaining a political appointee in the face of an indefensible scandal where people died? I just don't understand why Obama is so stubborn about this. He is really so opposed to accountability for political appointees?

Oh, I don't think he's determined to keep Shinseki around. I think he is just waiting for the right time to let him go. And that right time could be during this chat.

I saw a poll pre-nursing home scandal (that showed McDaniel up 4--don't know how reliable though), but I have not seen any since that time. I'm rather surprised. Have you seen any? I would assume that Cochran has an edge going into Tuesday. Your take and prediction?

The Cochran people think they would have won without the nursing home thing but are a lot more confident after it.

I could have seen McDaniel winning pre-nursing home. I'd be very surprised if he won now.

Interesting how there's FAR more Democratic support for Shinseki stepping down than there was for Sebelius. What's your explanation?

1. It's an election year

2. Veterans as an issue isn't even close to politicized like Obamacare

Check out this awesome post comparing Shinseki and Sebelius here: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/05/29/eric-shinseki-is-in-way-worse-shape-than-kathleen-sebelius-just-look-at-this-chart/

Which is the more likely Republican takeover in the Senate?

I think Iowa ultimately.

Chris, Did you see Edward Snowden's comments on The Wire, specifically his dislike of Season 2? I know you're a big Frank Sobatka fan. Have you gotten to the later seasons yet? Your public awaits your insightful commentary on Tommy Carcetti's political maneuverings!

I grow to appreciate Season 2 more the longer removed I get from it.

Ann Hornaday sounds like a contender to me. Of course, she inadvertently made a point that isn't what Hollywood wants to hear: if they want to brag about how "influential" they are, in changing attitudes about race, etc., they have to consider that their influence might go awry as well.

I think Ann had a great week. She started a conversation that needs to be had.

VP options for Dems in 2016 -- Tim Kaine, Julian Castro, Cory Booker, Jay Nixon. Anybody else jump out?

Warner? 

Can Democrats turn the Montana Senate race into a real race, or is it too steep a hill to climb?

Very tough. Though out of MT, WV and SD, Montana is quite clearly the best opportunity for Democrats to hold.

McDaniel or Cochran? Who wins the weirdest primary of the year so far?

I think Cochran. And this one is BY far the wackiest primary of the year.  The whole filming Cochran's infirm wife in her nursing home is one for the ages. And not in a good way.

Do you understand the campaign he is running? If he loses, his political career is over, right?

No. And yes.

Brown has been somewhat undisciplined on the trail. I feel like his chance is the political environment totally collapsing for Democrats this fall.

President Obama giving a Shinseki statement at 11:15 am. The end is here.

Assuming Jeb Bush stays out of the race, does Rubio really give up his Senate seat to run in 2016 for president?

Yup. Because I think he has a real chance of being the nominee.

Do you see the budget stalemate in Richmond possibly harming Mark Warner in November?

Nope.  Mark Warner is going to get re-elected unless the bottom drops totally out for Democrats nationally.

My guess is that Ed Gillespie would tell you that same thing if you asked him privately.

In real danger or just being extra cautious since Virginia primaries are notoriously low turnout affairs? Given the open nature of the Virginia primaries, do you see Democrats in the 7th district trying to muck things up for Cantor?

Extra cautious, I think.

More likely to have a future in Virginia electoral politics -- Bill Bolling or Tom Davis?

Probably neither. But Davis by a nose.

Why have Udall's fortunes sagged, while Hickenlooper seems to have rebounded?

Difference between running for state office and running for federal office. As a Senator, Udall feels the ups and down of the national party (and has to answer for them) much more than Hickenlooper.

Kingston or Perdue? Who wins this thing? Who would Nunn rather face -- the long-time congressional incumbent who hasn't run a real race in awhile or the political novice, business outsider?

I think she'd probably rather run against Kingston because he would make it easier to drive the outsider vs insider dynamic she wants.

Plus, Perdue is a wealthy businessman with no record.

Who is in more electoral danger this November -- Al Franken or Jeff Merkley?

Merkley

Shinseki update: President Obama has accepted his resignation.

Only a few chats left to decide and promote....are you going to start a Fix World Cup pick 'em group on ESPN? Do it!

I AM going to. This weekend.  What do I call it?

it has to be Eric Shinseki again. If he is fired or forced to resign next week, would this be the first triple crown winner in worst week history?

Resigned. And, oh yeah, big time.  Back to back winner.

Have you seen it yet? I felt like telling everyone I knew to watch the show if they aren't already.

I have two more episodes to watch! Mrs. Fix was in Spain for 8 days so I didn't want to watch them without her. (She gets pissed when I do that.)

But, I have heard tell that it's crazy.

If you search Cillizza it doesn't come up. Looks like someone was able to get there named blocked!

No names that have less than 100 matches show up for privacy reasons. So, no Cillizza. Or Obama.

If you have no idea what they heck we are talking about, click this: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/05/29/what-your-last-name-says-about-your-politics/?tid=pm_politics_pop

Which competitor is most likely to blow in your ear to try to throw you off? My money's on Tapper.

Oh, definitely Tapper. That guy loves to talk smack.

Pretty obvious that Eric Shinseki wins Worst Week in Washington.

CORRECT

Were you cheering for Real Madrid on Saturday?

Nope. Atletico Madrid. I'm not rooting for any team with CR7 on it.

0-100, what are McDaniels's chances on tuesday?

37

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt2114461/?ref_=nm_flmg_act_3

People do tell me that I look like Chris Klein. Either him or Brad Pitt.

Just once I would like to see a politician step across the stage during a debate and blow in his opponenets ear. We need to spice up the debates in the future.

It would be AMAZING.

I also want entrance music for the debates.

I have a whole list of stuff to make that awesomer....

Guesstimate his chances at republican primary and general election.

Is there a number less than zero?

Worst Week in Washington: Erik Shinseki or Dan Snyder?

Snyder should call Shinseki and say thanks.

Considering we're due for a "Friday Night News Dump" story, what's the odds he's out as VA Sec by end of business today? I say 70%.

I say 100%.

So we are in the summer of 14. When do you think Hillary makes the announcment she is running. Or forming an exploratory committee? Seems to me she can wait the longest because she has 100% name recognition.

Next spring.

Where are you writing? What are you listening to? What are you drinking?

My desk deep within Fix world HQ.

"The Beast In Its Tracks" by Josh Ritter.

Just polished off a venti chai tea latter. Extra hot. Like me.

Signs a 3 year extension at Arsenal. Thoughts?

He's an amazing manager.  How he deals with Giroud's hair, however, is the key question I want answered.

Do you know why the web addresses you post show up as ordinary text rather than clickable links? Is there something I can do to change this. Very annoying, especially when following along on a tablet or phone rather than a computer.

I am posting this so my tech betters see it.

I'm in favour of west wing, you? Also, reason for Obama statement at 11.15?

Don't love either but WW I suppose.

Also, terrific british spelling on favour.

Still not fired?

FIRED

The Herald called this race the meanest and costliest in the country. Do you agree? Considering Scott is willing to spend $100 million can Crist even compete?

Crist can raise money.  He is amazing at it. He probably gets outspent because Scott can fund the campaign himself.

But, yes, this one is going to be very very nasty. And expensive.

rubio, christie, jindal, someone else?

Rubio/Walker/Christie in the top tier to my mind.

Who is the favorite in both parties to get the nomination.

LG Anthony Brown for Dems.

It doesn't matter for Republicans.

Who 'da thunk it?

It's an absolutely amazing story. That guy's life in politics is totally fascinating.

How does that joke of a franchise go for 2 Billion?

LA media market. And they have Chris Paul and Blake...

Resigned

Resigned.

Don't sleep on Charley Crist. He could make Hillary look genuine. Kind of like the Bernie Sanders campaign, where everything he does is designed to make Hillary seem like an accomplished centrist.

Read this: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/05/08/charlie-crist-didnt-leave-the-republican-party-because-of-racism-he-left-it-because-he-couldnt-win-a-primary/

If I'm a Republican I would rather have a tested Kingston run in November than an untested blank slate. We have watched this movie with the R's before and it hasn't ended well.

Fair enough.

How much does the Pig Castrator need to win by to avoid a run-off?

No runoff in Iowa...

What are the chances that Job Bush will run in 2016? What the likelihood Gen. Shinseki will have a job in the next hour?

The odds for  Jeb Bush candidacy are MUCH higher than Shinseki's for keeping his job. Because anything is more than 0.

He bought the Bucs, spent some money, kept out the spotlight, and brought them the Super Bowl. Jealous?

Always.  And u forgot about that other sports team he owned -- little soccer club known as Manchester United.

I'm surprised Sarah Palin didn't try this with Joe Biden in 2008.

Or Biden with Paul Ryan in 2012!

Polling as Rep. Capito leading. Is this seat foregone or is there a foreseeable instance where Natalie Tennant catches up?

Close to over.

I think the Prince has something up his sleve. My money's on the Imp getting Aquittal by Combat.

Never bet against the Dornish.

It seems you have the same problem I have- the wife gets pissed if you watch an episode without her. My dilema is the following- we watch, the wife falls asleep 10 minutes in. Do I continue to watch or turn it off and watch sports?

I have the reverse dilemma: I am the one who falls asleep.

Last night, I was watching the replay of Snowden with BriWi. Mrs Fix and the Fix mother-in-law both fell asleep. I quickly switched to Spurs-OKC.

You know, if this was Rome, he'd be throwing himself on his sword.

If I was Shinseki, I would have walked into Obama's office and demanded a trial by combat.

Rumor has it that Lord Bezos is installing a moon door in your office.

That would be SO amazing

"Make the little political blogger fly!"

Beyond the Mississippi Mudsling, what other contests have been dirty?

California primary between Ro Khanna and Rep. Mike Honda has been ROUGH.

Has Ben Carson long held these views, or has he changed in recent years? If the latter, has he been tested for early-onset senility?

And we now have a record for most Ben Carson questions in a chat!

Wait- what? You don't love the West Wing? Why not?

Never got into it.

I know this is sacrilege.

I mentioned the Six Million Dollar Man to my son's preschool teacher the other day, and she had no idea what I was talking about. Sigh. Man, I'm getting old.

I made a Max Headroom joke a few months ago. Blank looks.

He wasn't walking out of the WH with his job, so when is a resignation a resignation?

When you call it that.

Is he favored to win in November? He has never seemed to be very popular.

He is. Minnesota is still a Democratic-leaning state and the GOP bench in the state is, to quote Charles Barkley, turrible.

How close are we to Fix Aaron taking control of The Fix?

It's always a hair's breadth....

Running the Fix is like being the King of the Andals and the First Men. Not a long shelf life.

It is very amusing to watch people speculate about something that has already happened...

Ah, the "Why don't you just read the books" crowd rears its head!

Think its time for more cowbell.

Always.

I've got a fever.

Just watched it for the first time a few days ago. Hated it. The true part of that story was 6 Americans hid in the Canadian Embassy.

Loved it.

Be careful- you don't want to get punched on the red carpet like Brad.

Fair point.

Is Karen Handel's political career now dead?

Mostly dead, yes.

She's now lost statewide primaries for gov and Senate.

With characters like Bachmann, Cain, Gingrich, and Santorum slugging it out on multiple debate stages, how is 2016 supposed to compete? Any chance Carson will actually run?

You forgot Trump.

And we now have had THREE Ben Carson questions!

Are you the Harry Crane of the WaPo newsroom?

I do have glasses. And I am nerdy.

they're not really competitive are they? Warner has more money than God and the best reputation in the state and its Oregon for gods sake! Wehby can't win the Democrats she needs in a federal race to win statewide.

Not really. I could see a case for oregon coming on line as competitive before VA.

But both would need several things to go wrong for Republicans to have a real chance.

The man is already 65 years old. He can't have much of a future past the LT. Gov position right?

Ageist!

I recently moved into his district and would like to not be represented by him. What are the odds of him losing his seat this year?

Is there a number lower than zero, I ask again.

It's a short step to boxing-style candidate introductions. "Weighing in at 170 pounds... five feet ten inches... a graduate of the University of Delaware... three-time chairman of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations... The Delaware Kid... The Scranton Smiler... Joe "The Ladykiller" Biden!"

I am telling you, this would work.

My attitude is this: These debates are already performances. (Do you think anyone can really explain how they would turn the nation's economy around in 45 seconds?) So, embrace it.

how did you know it would happen during the chat? Do you have psychic powers you haven't told us about?

Well, Obama met with him at 10:15. And they were going to emerge from that meeting sometime in the 11 o'clock hour...and it seemed hard to believe that Shinseki could stay around.

What is his next step? Does he wait to run for Senator/Governor, House Dem Leader, or nothing.

He'd like to be in the Senate. But no obvious route there right now. I think he runs for a higher leadership position when Pelosi/Hoyer/Clyburn move on.

How close are we to Ben Carson taking control of The Fix?

Getting closer.....

If I ask you why there are so many Ben Carson questions, is that a fourth Ben Carson question, or is that the first Ben Carson question question?

FIVE!

Will you be attending or do The FIX junior staffers get the honor of listening to the exciting lineup of speakers?

Fix Aaron is in place!

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/05/29/the-duck-dynasty-guy-epitomizes-this-weekends-republican-leadership-conference/

Is he going to be the next NY Gov, next owner of the Buffalo Bills, or both?

Both. Plus King of the Andals and the First Men.

now that i have your attention, is there anyone who could run strongly as a social con in 16 other than the usual suspects (santorum, palin and huckabee)

Ted Cruz.

Folks, I have to end the chat a little early...have to write some analysis on the Shinseki resignation for The Fix.

Check that out soon(ish).

And remember, we do this chat EVERY Friday at 11 am. Spread the word.

Chris

In This Chat
Chris Cillizza
Chris Cillizza is the managing editor of PostPolitics and he writes "The Fix," a politics blog for The Washington Post. He also covers the White House for the newspaper and website. Chris has appeared as a guest on NBC, CBS, ABC, MSNBC, Fox News Channel and CNN to talk politics. He lives in Virginia with his wife and sons.
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