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May 23, 2014

11
A.M.

The Fix Live

Total Responses: 68

About the hosts

About the host

Host: Chris Cillizza

Chris Cillizza

Chris Cillizza is the managing editor of PostPolitics and he writes "The Fix," a politics blog for The Washington Post. He also covers the White House for the newspaper and website. Chris has appeared as a guest on NBC, CBS, ABC, MSNBC, Fox News Channel and CNN to talk politics. He lives in Virginia with his wife and sons.

About the topic

The Fix's Chris Cillizza discussed the latest in political news.

Follow @TheFix on Twitter.
Q.

Chris Cillizza :

Good morning everyone. The Memorial Day getaway is upon us -- it's getting to be a ghost town already in DC -- but the live chat will not let beautiful weather and the impending long weekend stop it.

Let's do this thing.

Q.

Shinseki

It's a matter of when, rather than if, Shinseki goes, right? Obama has usually been reluctant to fire his appointees, but few people seem willing to back the secretary.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

I certainly think so. I wrote about Shinseki in a certain feature I do called Worst Week in Washington....

– May 23, 2014 11:01 AM
Q.

Monica Wehby

Do you think she can make Oregon competitive in the fall? Gordon Smith was more conservative (pro-life) and he won two elections, and lost by only 3% in one of the worst R years ever.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Has to be  a pretty bad national environment for Democrats and I think Merkley has to make a mistake or two.

But Wehby's primary victory -- even if it came amid lots of bad headlines about her personal life -- puts Oregon in the possible if not likely camp for Republicans.

– May 23, 2014 11:02 AM
Q.

T.W. Shannon

Is he now the odds on favorite to win the senate race?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

I think Shannon is a slight favorite over Lankford. Odds on? Not sure about that.

– May 23, 2014 11:02 AM
Q.

Georgia runoff

Who's the favorite in the runoff for the Republican nomination for Senate in Georgia?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

I would think David Perdue given that he finished first in the primary and Kingston being a member of Congress.

The way Kingston wins -- and it's possible -- is to paint Perdue as the moderate in the race.

– May 23, 2014 11:04 AM
Q.

Jeb vs. Hillary

Journalists are just despairing at this possibility, aren't they? A snoozer of a Democratic race, a pretty predictable GOP race (Jeb beats Rand Paul), and then a general election featuring two very well-known figures. No fun for them,
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Don't agree.

I think Jeb vs Hillary would be an absolutely amazing race.  Tons of fascinating dynamics.

– May 23, 2014 11:05 AM
Q.

GA Runoff

Who do you give the edge to in July? My guess is most of Handle's votes go to Kingston. Agree?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

See above. if that's true, Kingston can and maybe will win.  Look, the three tea party candidates -- Handel, Broun and Gingrey -- didn't make the runoff. Their votes are critical to Perdue and Kingston.

I just don't know if Kingston can legitimately sell himself as a tea party guy.

– May 23, 2014 11:06 AM
Q.

PA Gubernatorial Race

Hi- have you followed up on this? Some interesting reporting on the number of Republican write-in votes in a number of counties and the fact that in one county the R running for Lieutenant Governor got more votes than the Governor.. Also- any thoughts if ending the fight against marriage equality in PA will hurt Gov Corbett's reelection efforts in getting out the base? Thanks
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Until I see polling that says otherwise, I think Corbett is going to lose -- almost not matter what he does.

His numbers are dismal. They seem to be getting slightly better but I think Tom Wolf winning the Democratic nomination was worse case scenario for the incumbent.

Wolf is rich and has no record.  Hard to demonize him -- which would be the only path that Corbett has to win.

– May 23, 2014 11:08 AM
Q.

WWIW

Allyson Schwartz, Paul Broun, and Phil Gingrey. All 3 ran horrible primaries and now will be leaving congress and lobbying in the fall (ok maybe they had the best week in Washington, big pay raise).
A.
Chris Cillizza :

All three didn't do much.

I think Schwartz was the worst of the bunch because with her Philly base and fundraising ability most people -- including me -- assumed she would be the favorite to be the Democratic nominee.

Instead, Wolf beat her by 40! points.

Here's my winners and losers from Tuesday if you missed it: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/05/21/winners-and-losers-from-the-may-20-super-tuesday-primaries/

– May 23, 2014 11:09 AM
Q.

Southern Senate Races

What do you think is the likelihood of Democrats picking up the Kentucky or Georgia seat in November?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Kentucky is a better chance than Georgia.

I am working on a big piece about McConnell and why he is more vulnerable than conventional wisdom in DC dictates.

I know that polling shows Nunn running even or ahead of both of the potential GOP nominees but I just think it's much harder  for her to win with either Kingston or Perdue as the nominee than it would have been if Republicans nominated Broun or Gingrey.

– May 23, 2014 11:11 AM
Q.

Re: Wehby

Note that because of Oregon's vote-by-mail system, most votes in that primary were cast before all the awful stories about her personal life. Who knows how those will play in the general.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Agreed. She got lucky there.

I'm not sure how it plays in the general election either. It did take some of the excitement out of her victory for Republicans who believe she has a real chance though,.

– May 23, 2014 11:12 AM
Q.

Grimes

What % chance do you give her to beat McConnell in the fall?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

47%.

– May 23, 2014 11:12 AM
Q.

RE: Oregon

It won't be competitive. Please stop trying to expand the map just so you have more interesting things to write about. You lose credibility.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

I said that Merkley would have to make several mistakes and the political environment would have to be really bad for Democrats nationally.

Not sure how much clearer I can be. The race is on the third or fourth tier. But, Wehby has an appealing bio (in theory) and will raise money.

– May 23, 2014 11:13 AM
Q.

Iowa

Those Iowa Democratic caucusgoers interviewed in the Post seemed to be saying: 1. We're all for Hillary. 2. We understand that all other Democrats are for Hillary. 3. So there shouldn't be a race. 4. But pay attention to us anyway! Please, please, please...
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Ha!

This is the story: http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/iowa-activists-provide-early-perceptions-of-potential-hillary-clinton-presidential-bid/2014/05/18/bb75be98-db66-11e3-bda1-9b46b2066796_story.html

– May 23, 2014 11:13 AM
Q.

Weekly Jeb Index

With 100 being the Mountain and 0 being the guy pleading for mercy, what are the current chances of Jeb Bush running in 2016? Also, my money's on the Imp's Chamion winning..
A.
Chris Cillizza :

So amazing.

I think it's less than 505-50. I'll give it a 41.

– May 23, 2014 11:14 AM
Q.

MS Senate Race

Where does this race stand? It feels 50-50 right now with the nursing home scandal still not resolved.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

I thoiught McDaniel was going to win. But this whole nursing home thing with Cochran's wife so close to the June 3 primary is really really bad. 

I now think Cochran might pull it out. But, as past primaries in 2010 and 2012 have shown us, predicting primaries is so hard because of the turnout variations.

– May 23, 2014 11:15 AM
Q.

Next Tuesday

What hot primaries are you still watching?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Next Tuesday -- eh.  Ralkph Hall might lose in TX runoff. And the siting LG in Texas looks likely to lose.

June 3, now we are talking.

MS Senate GOP primary

IA Senate GOP primary

California primary

– May 23, 2014 11:17 AM
Q.

US Soccer

What are your thoughts on Klinnsman's 23-man roster for Brazil?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

I am ok with Donovan not making it.  His whole spiritual mission thing over the past few years coupled with what I assume was his resistance to taking a reduced role on the squad makes him probably better off the team.

That said, I am not optimistic about our chances of making it out of the group stage -- with or without Landon.

– May 23, 2014 11:18 AM
Q.

RE: Oregon

Regarding Gordon Smith, why has he not run for office again? He was pretty popular and I would think he could have been competitive in the Gov race.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

I think that Senate race really devastated him.

– May 23, 2014 11:19 AM
Q.

Hoyas

With Georgetown currently getting 100/1 odds to win the National Championship, I'm wondering if betting our alma mater makes sense.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

VERY good recruiting class coming. Of course, coming to a team that didn't even make the tournament last year....

– May 23, 2014 11:19 AM
Q.

Hillary Clinton

Is it a given that if Hillary is in, everyone known is out? Why can't there be a substantive challenge to her from inside the Democratic Party, and wouldn't that challenge be healthier if it involved a real discussion of issues?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Not everyone will be out.

I think martin O'Malley could run no matter what. Brian Schweitzer seems to want to run. Bernie Sanders might run.

– May 23, 2014 11:20 AM
Q.

Bluegrass Battle

How is early polling showing McConnell vs. Grimes? And couldn't she have gotten her husband-to-be to legally change his last name to "Trueheart", "Burbonmaker", "Wildcat", or "Ih8Obama.com"?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Very very close.

The McConnell team argues that his numbers are artificially low because some more conservative Republicans haven't rallied around him -- but will.

Democrats push back that McConnell is both very well known and not at all liked, a typically deadly combo in politics.

– May 23, 2014 11:21 AM
Q.

Worst Week

Mark Cuban. He has given talking cable heads in Washington something to talk about.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Pretty dumb.

– May 23, 2014 11:21 AM
Q.

Lundergan Grimes

Will she have the money to compete?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Um, yes. She is raising money like gangbusters.  

– May 23, 2014 11:21 AM
Q.

CA Primary

Anything interesting in regards to rising stars w/statewide or national ambitions?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Pete Aguilar.  Mayor of Redlands. Running for Congress.

And check out our awesome 4-0 under 40 piece....detailing the pols you might not know but should...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/politics/40-under-40/?hpid=z1

– May 23, 2014 11:23 AM
Q.

Cory Booker

Is he in the witness protection program, or just fitting in well as a back bencher in the Senate?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Taking the Hillary Clinton path...lay low for a while. Booker is SO young he can bide his time.

– May 23, 2014 11:24 AM
Q.

Razorback Race

Which is closer in Arkansas? The Governor or the Senate?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Oooh.  At the moment, I think governor since it's close to tied.

Pryor seems to have a mid-ish single digit lead over Cotton.

– May 23, 2014 11:24 AM
Q.

Dewhurst

Has anyone fallen faster and harder (without a scandal) than David Dewhurst? From the overwhelmingly likely Senator from Texas to likely losing a runoff for his current job as LG?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Charlie Crist?

– May 23, 2014 11:24 AM
Q.

Andrew Cuomo

Chances he runs if Clinton does/does not? He is going to cruise to re-election and will probably get a lot of republican votes.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

60-40.

– May 23, 2014 11:24 AM
Q.

Republican nomination for Senate in Georgia

Sarah Palin endorsed Karen Handel, who didn't even make the GOP runoff. Is this a sign of Palin's waning influence (except among her true-believers)?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Sort of. I also think it's a sign that endorsements just don't matter that much in general.

– May 23, 2014 11:25 AM
Q.

Reid and McConnell

I thought they used to get along...and even have some respect for each other. Is that all over now?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Oh yes. All over.

– May 23, 2014 11:25 AM
Q.

2016 Senate Map

Would you agree that Republicans should be just as worried about the 2016 senate map as they are excited about this year's map?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Heck yeah. I wrote about it!

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/03/21/sure-republicans-can-win-the-senate-in-2014-but-can-they-keep-it-in-2016/

– May 23, 2014 11:26 AM
Q.

Virginia Tenth

How do you look at the Democratic primary to succeed Jim Moran? The candidates seem so alike that this could be a race where the Post's endorsement will be a major thing.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

That's the 8th. I expect Don Beyer to win.

Read this: http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/in-vas-8th-congressional-district-reconciling-past-and-future/2014/05/06/00d1f4fc-cb18-11e3-a75e-463587891b57_story.html

– May 23, 2014 11:26 AM
Q.

Appointment of Mayor Castro

Is this really a good move for him right now?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Here's the deal: He's a rising D star in a state where Democrats are probably four years (at a minimum) from winning statewide. So, he needs another place to bide his time until the state's demographics change.

So, I think it's the best of a variety of not all that great next steps for him.

– May 23, 2014 11:27 AM
Q.

CA Primary

When is it? Any interesting Races?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

June 3. And there are a TON. We will do a big rundown on Fix next week. Stay tuned.

– May 23, 2014 11:28 AM
Q.

Biggest Loser--Ser Jorah

Worst Week has to go to Ser Jorah. All his hopes were crushed as he figured out he will never leave the friend zone!
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Poor Ser Jorah. Liam from "Nashville" totally aced him out.

– May 23, 2014 11:28 AM
Q.

Kentucky GOP Primary

Even though McConnell won, should he be worried that he only got 60 percent?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Not really. Whether he got 51, 60 or 90, he was always going to have a very serious race against ALG.

– May 23, 2014 11:29 AM
Q.

VA Eighth District Primary

Does Beyer cruise to victory in the Eighth District primary in June because of name recognition and "establishment" support, or can any of the other candidates make it a race?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

The former, I think.

– May 23, 2014 11:29 AM
Q.

Andrew Cuomo

I'm an old New Yorker, and I can't IMAGINE that Andrew Cuomo can play nationally. He's a nasty guy; he inherited NONE of his father's warmth.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

We shall see. His inner circle and political machinations are virtually impossible for me to divine. He remains a VERy New York-centric figure.

– May 23, 2014 11:30 AM
Q.

Kentucky not Duke

I see Grimes is still mentioning that slip. As an Alumnus of Lehigh University, I don't blame her because the Blue Devils have never beaten us.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

BOOM GOES THE DYNAMITE.

– May 23, 2014 11:30 AM
Q.

Pryor over Cotton

Is this more due to Pryor's Positives or Cotton's Negatives?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

A little of both but I think more of Pryor's positives.

– May 23, 2014 11:30 AM
Q.

Sam Brownback

How much trouble is he in? I've read he is pretty unpopular with moderate republicans in the wealthy KC suburbs.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

He is. I keep coming back to it being Kansas in a midterm election that looks very good for Republicans nationally.

– May 23, 2014 11:31 AM
Q.

O'Malley? Sanders? Schweitzer?

Hillary would love those three guys running against her; she gets to be the mature, reasonable voice in the room against a guy who's looking down the road (O'Malley); a guy who's (justifiably) outraged at pretty much everything (Sanders); and a guy who thinks he's a star, but isn't (Schweitzer). As Carville said of Gingrich, "I'll pay his filing fee." Don't you think she's bettter off with some (really) non-electorally-serious opponents to warm up on?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

I think it would be good for her to have a nominal primary to work the kinks out, yes. Of course, you never know when "non serious" primaries become serious ones.

– May 23, 2014 11:32 AM
Q.

McConnell's Wife

Will Mitch McConnell's wife be a negative factor in the campaign because of her being the Sec. of Labor for George Bush, and way, way to the right?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Mitch McConnell will win or lose based on him, not Elaine Chao.

– May 23, 2014 11:33 AM
Q.

Castro

Possible VP pick? HUD is a better place to position oneself (Jack Kemp) than San Antonio Mayor (Henry Cisneros).
A.
Chris Cillizza :

I think that's his best case scenario.

I am not sure it happens. But, I think he is probably on a short list with Kaine, Warner and a few others.

– May 23, 2014 11:33 AM
Q.

Tea Party effect?

Has the Tea Party pushed November's establishment GOP candidates far enough to the right that Democrats can win by painting those Republicans with the Tea Party brush?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

We shall see. But I don't think Kingston or Perdue moved way to the right nor did McConnell.

– May 23, 2014 11:34 AM
Q.

PA Governor's Race

Race between Tom Wolf, Tom Corbett and a houseplant, who wins? www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/05/tom_corbett_could_still_win_ag.html
A.
Chris Cillizza :

In a race between a ficus and Corbett, I am taking the ficus.

– May 23, 2014 11:34 AM
Q.

Mississippi Mudslinging

So is this invalid wife scandal turning into something of Nixonian proportions? Is there a chance the Tea Party candidate might get elected?

A.
Chris Cillizza :

Um, it's Thad Chochran's real wife. She is in a nursing home.

– May 23, 2014 11:36 AM
Q.

Pryor

Isn't he the Russ Feingold of this mid term? Feingold wasn't really behind until the summer, when people started to pay attention.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Well, Feingold never took his vulnerability all that seriously and ran a really terrible campaign. I don't think Pryor is making either of those mistakes.

– May 23, 2014 11:37 AM
Q.

Party Switching

If the Senate splits even or nearly even - who is more likely to switch parties, Collins or Manchin?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Manchin for sure. I don't think either would though.

– May 23, 2014 11:37 AM
Q.

Senate Leadership

If Rs take Senate (possible) and McConnell loses his race (possible), who becomes majority leader? Jim DeMint? (just kidding, sorta)
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Cornyn is most likely. I think Lamar(!) Alexander might take a shot too. Thune would be in the mix but my guess is he would take whatever the next step down from Cornyn vs Alexander.

– May 23, 2014 11:38 AM
Q.

Bernie Sanders Straw Horse

This is actually a brilliant move by Team Hillary -- pay Sanders to run so he can make her look like a moderate who's actually accomplished something.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

I love how people think the Clintons are so Machiavellian that they are planting opponents to make look good!

It's very hard for me to believe that Bernie Sanders is taking his marching orders from the Clintons -- or anyone else.

– May 23, 2014 11:40 AM
Q.

Paul Ryan

He does not want to be president, senator, governor, or in the house leadership. Could you see him leaving politics within the next 5 years?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

No. and I think he very much wants to be Speaker of the House.

– May 23, 2014 11:40 AM
Q.

Kathy Hochul

Cuomo just named Hochul as his running mate. Do you think she has a future as a possible candidate for Gov herself? Or is she to Upstate to win statewide?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

He picked her to make sure Upstate knows he cares about them.

But, being on what will almost certainly be a winning ticket is a good thing for her political future too.

– May 23, 2014 11:41 AM
Q.

RE: Hoyas

Auburn was 500 to 1 and came within 13 seconds of winning the CFB championship. You should put $$$ on the Hoyas.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Alright, alright. Twist my arm...

– May 23, 2014 11:42 AM
Q.

Jimmy Carter's Grandson

What are his chances for Governor?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Not great. His campaign has been a little rough so far...and, again, Georgia in a midterm election is a lot more Republican than Georgia in a presidential election.

– May 23, 2014 11:42 AM
Q.

GA Senate

While Kingston and Perdue are probably the two least conservative from the GA Senate GOP field (making Nunn's job that much harder), doesn't the runoff basically require both of them to tack sharply to the right to get the nomination? And won't that help Nunn make her case against the eventual nominee?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Maybe. But Republicans only have two choices, both of whom, as you point out, are establishment types. So, would either Perdue or Kingston really have to move that drastically to the right?

– May 23, 2014 11:43 AM
Q.

Speaking of Manchin

Chances he runs for Governor in 2016?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

He could. I don't think he loves being in the Senate....

– May 23, 2014 11:44 AM
Q.

Hispanics

Republicans love to boast about their farm team of Hispanic politicians. But, if we are talking about potential national candidates, we're just taking about Marco Rubio and Susana Martinez. Nevada Governor Brian Sandoval is pro-choice and expanded Medicaid -- he has no shot at national office. And Democrats would surely love Ted Cruz to be on the GOP ticket.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Tend to agree on Sandoval. But, I think the GOP is moving in the right direction on diversifying the party. They currently have to Indian American governors and, if T.W. Shannon wins the Oklahoma Senate primary, they'll have two black Senators. That's one more black Senator than Democrats have at the moment.

– May 23, 2014 11:46 AM
Q.

Top political gaffes?

Hi Chris, Has there ever been a Fix list of all-time top political gaffes? Now by gaffe I'm talking about a totally unforced error, something a candidate/officeholder said that was instantly scandalous. Romney's 47% wouldn't count because it was in a private setting where he didn't expect to be taped. Some initial candidates: - Rick Perry's "Oops" - George Allen "macaca" moment - Todd Akin
A.
Chris Cillizza :

I feel like we did this but can't find it anywhere on the Interwebs....

– May 23, 2014 11:47 AM
Q.

Champions League Final

Real or Atletico?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Rooting for Atletico. Think Real will win.

– May 23, 2014 11:47 AM
Q.

West Virginia

West Virginia is a fairly poor state and somewhat dependent upon Federal benefits. Why has it shifted so radically toward Republicans? Is it Obama? Is it the Second Amendment?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

It's cultural issues (guns especially) as well as the perceived antipathy from the Obama Administration toward coal.

– May 23, 2014 11:48 AM
Q.

TX

Will Ralph Hall survive?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

I would lean no but can't say I have followed it closely enough to tell you definitely. Plus, a runoff the day after memorial Day...tough to predict turnout.

– May 23, 2014 11:49 AM
Q.

Thad Cochran's wife

What advantage could any opponent of Thad Cochran possibly gain by posting such a video? I can't think of a one.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Me neither.

 

– May 23, 2014 11:49 AM
Q.

GOTV

Obama's team was extraordinary in 2008 and 2012. Will they be able to use their old lists and mobilize volunteers for November?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

The problem is that no matter how many great lists you have, if people aren't psyched up to go vote it doesn't matter.

And that may be the reality for Democrats this fall.

– May 23, 2014 11:51 AM
Q.

Charlie Christ

Speaking of which, how is he polling in trying to get his old job back?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Pretty well but that's largely due to the fact that Gov. Rick Scott isn't very popular.

– May 23, 2014 11:51 AM
Q.

Colorado Gov Race

Who would be John Hickenlooper's strongest opponent?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Cory Gardner.

– May 23, 2014 11:52 AM
Q.

Dan Malloy

How much danger is he in? His poll numbers are rather low for such a blue state.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

He has never been all that popular, which is strange given that Connecticut is a solidly blue state.

I still tend to think Malloy gets re-elected but he makes the races more interesting than your average D incumbent running in a Democratic state.

– May 23, 2014 11:52 AM
Q.

GOP Convention

Is KC the favorite to get the convention in 16?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

I actually think it's Dallas now. Which is good news for me since it's the home of the Fix in-laws!

– May 23, 2014 11:54 AM
Q.

Chris Cillizza :

Ok, folks. It's time to start the weekend. Have a great one.if you are anywhere near DC enjoy the amazing weather.

Remember that we do this thing every Friday at 11 am. Spread the word!

Chris

Q.

 

A.
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