The Fix Live

May 16, 2014

The Fix's Chris Cillizza discussed the latest in political news.

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Hello everyone!

Rainy Friday here in DC but I remain sunny.  Let's do it.

why was George R R Martin running for governor and not writing??!!!

If you have not watched this video, you need to stop what you are doing (even if your boss fires you) and watch this: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/05/15/governors-debates-in-idaho-are-well-different/?tid=pm_politics_pop 

Why am I so interested in the Idaho debate, especially Harley Brown.

How could you NOT be?!?!?

Where are you taking your talents this weekend?

My desk

Soundtrack: Lykke Li's new one

Drink: Peets' Mocha

Food: Currant scone.

That's how I do it.

I have Karl Rove winning Worst Week.

Close but no close enough.

Steve Israel won! wapo.st/1gaOlJN

It's just not going to be an issue in 2016, is it? Anybody who cares about it has already made up their mind about who they are supporting.

Correct.  Not an issue.

In the general election, I expect the Republican nominee will talk about his gay friends to obscure his opposition to same-sex marriage, Honestly, I expect the courts to resolve this issue before the GOP changes its position.

Here's the issue: There is a portion of the GOP base that feels deeply and passionately that marriage should only be between a man and a woman.

Taking a position directly in contrast to that would make it more difficult for the candidate who adopted that position to win. (It's the same problem Mitt Romney had with "self deportation" in 2012.)

So, I can't see any candidate totally switching on the issue. instead my guess is that the GOP candidates talk differently about it -- or talk less about it.

If Jeb runs, how do you expect the media to cover (1) his wife's dislike for the spotlight and (2) his daughter Noelle's history of substance abuse? Bill de Blasio's daughter was remarkably open about her problems. But I'm not sure Noelle Bush wants to emulate her -- she seems very private.

Roz Helderman did a great piece on how family is the big reason for why Jeb may ultimately stay out.

It's here: http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/as-jeb-bush-eyes-2016-key-question-is-how-a-presidential-campaign-would-affect-his-family/2014/05/11/73ef1816-d55e-11e3-8a78-8fe50322a72c_story.html

Politics has become so intrusive and so personal even in the decade or so Jeb has been out. If he and his family didn't like it then, they'll hate it now.

Two potential presidential candidates with dedicated followings but also distrusted by party insiders. Compare and contrast.

Rand seems to me to be the far more serious of the two.

He has spent the last year reaching out to establishment types -- not necessarily to get them to back him but to insure them that if he is the nominee he won't blow up the party or their chances at winning in 2016.

Huckabee never did anything like that.

Also, Paul can raise real money.  Huck never demonstrated that he could or cared to.

What role do you expect Ron Paul to play in his son's presidential campaign? Will Rand hide Ron?

When the libertarian base needs stoking Ron will be there. But I don't think he will be front and center most of the time.

Do Hillary Clinton's years in the public spotlight provide her some immunity from Republican attacks/attempts to define her.?

Immunity I'm not sure of.

But, because Clinton has been sop public for so long, opinions about her -- good and bad -- are pretty well set.

There is very little undecided vote when it comes to Clinton.

It's only Tuesday I am subbmitting this but Rep. Joe Garcia (D-FL). Picked his ear, looked at the wax on his finger, and then ate it! Embarrassed and hungry!

Um, it's Friday.

That said, this is SO gross: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wk2dyF5Fvv8

Rate these accents from best to worst: Australian, English, Spanish, Italian, French, and Russian.

Australian

Spanish

Italian

Russia 

French

Scottish accent is my #1 overall seed though. So amazing.

500 million people voted over five weeks. Aren't you glad you weren't covering that marathon?

Is there a "Fix" in India? Shouldn't there be? I may have to expand globally.

Place? Tunes? Drink? ....and is Jill Abraham there?

Neither Jill Abraham nor Jill Abramson are here.

What would Arsenal winning the FA Cup and ending their silverware drought feel like? Boiling molten gold on the head? A Lord Stannis sword to the face? Being crucified on the road in Mereen?

Ned Stark post head chop.

Jill Abramson... Enough said.

1. She's in NYC

2. Not a great PR week for NYT either. Salary equity = big deal.

I've been reading her book, and based on how I read it, I believe her that she doesn't want to run for president. I think maybe yea on the challenge, but nay on the actual workings of the job. And I do think the age thing does come into play in her thinking, for herself, not for anyone else her age who might run.

She doesn't. Especially against Hillary.

Our new ratings of the 2016 D field came out this morning. They're here: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/05/16/hillary-clinton-is-the-only-person-who-can-stop-hillary-clinton/

The New York Times. They have that old do as I say not what I do thing going on there with equal pay.

See above

Fox has the Democrats +3 on the generic. Rasmussen +2. USA Today has Republicans +4. CNN +1. Do you feel all these results are legit, or is there some skewin' goin' on?

Remember this: Democrats have a built-in edge on the generic. So, if it's tied or they have a 1-2 point lead that usually spells trouble for them in the close races nationally.

I always liked him. What chance do you give him of winning the R Primary?

Right now I think he's got a spot in the runoff with David Perdue. But Karen Handel is the momentum candidate -- thanks in no small part to the Sarah Palin endorsement.

Do you believe the media will respond to Republican hints that Hillary is too old the same way the media treated it when the Democrats hinted that Reagan, Dole and McCain were too old?

I think when you would be tied as the oldest person ever elected as president, the bar for proving your health and fitness for the gig is higher. That goes for Democrats and Republicans.

That said, I have no reason to think Hillary is not in perfectly fine health.

Lady GaGa, she had to move her concert for that?!?!?! What a terrible way to end the season.

Yeah. not so good.

Wall was TERRIBLE in that series and in the postseason generally. If he is even moderately close to what he was in the regular season, the 'Zards win.

Did you ask to be a special correspondent to Brazil?

Still working on it...SO PSYCHED for it.

Sleeper team: Belgium.

What does he do next? He really wanted to be Senator, but missed out on that. Does he try to get into the leadership?

I think when he passed on running against Gillibrand in the special election, he gave up his chance of being in the Senate. (Neither Gillibrand nor Schumer are going anywhere.)

I think at this point he is aiming to be the top of the Democratic pile in the House whenever Pelosi/Clyburn/Hoyer move on.

Give us your thoughts on Roger Bennett, if you would be so kind.

Roger Bennett is the king of the Andals and the First Men. He might also be the Mother of Dragons.

Will this be the cold open on SNL tomorrow night? (Only someone will have to wear a fat suit because Bobby Moynihan can only play one of these guys in a live spot.)

I'd love it if they did.  But that's probably too insidery for SNL to do.

If she runs, I predict she will announce sometime between May 21-June 7 2015. That gives her about 8 months before Iowa. Thoughts on that timeline?

Makes sense. No reason for her to rush into the race. She needs to find the sweet spot between looking as non political for as long as possible and giving herself enough time to effectively organize in the early states.

I just don't want to see these two run. It would be like watching the Spurs and Heat in the finals again. been there done that.

Sure.

But guess who is probably making the Finals this year. Yeah, the Spurs and the Heat.

...for future elections. Each party nominates its hero (heroine) and they let "the gods decide". What say you?

If the Moon Door is somehow involved, I am ALL IN.

Also, I made a Cersei Lannister reference in Worst Week in Washington this week.

Littlefinger is one evil dude, but he seems to be playing at a level above everyone else.

Bronn. Not close.

Also, I love me some Tywin Lannister.

Is this something a presidential candidate actually says? Or is he just rusty?

Oh, he's rusty. Look at how he handled the immigration questions when he was doing publicity for his book last year. Not so good.

With 100 being Magic Johnson's chances of making a free throw and 0 being Don Sterling's where is Jeb's chances of running for President this week?

64.

It's December 1st, 2014 and Hillary Clinton has just announced she isn't running - what happens on the Democratic side in the weeks after the announcement?

Biden gets in.

Gillibrand gets in

O'Malley is prob already in

Pressure is exerted on E Warren to run.

The GOP's great hope in the Oregon Senate race might have a stalker issue: http://www.oregonlive.com/mapes/index.ssf/2014/05/monica_wehby_accused_of_stalki.html How damaging is this?

Oh, I saw. Not so good.

So I guess Mitch McConnell isn't worried about the primary anymore. Does Bevin's downfall affect the landscape for the general election in KY?

Bevin turned out to be a LOT less than advertised.

I am not sure it drastically alters things in the general election although Democrats would have of course liked to see Bevin land a few more body blows than he has.

The race is still a referendum on McConnell.  And he has lots of people who will not vote for him.

Why does Stevie Nicks always sing "promise to you heaven" instead of "promise you heaven"?

Some questions just will never be answered.

Are you officially a regular on the show now?

Um, I "think" so?  I am on next Monday!

You do realize the person who said It's only tuesday, actually submitted the question on tuesday?

Yes, yes I do. 

Now.

If women want to be treated like men, they should expect to be fired just like them, and not treated nicely on the way out. It's actually sexist to treat them so softly, like the way you treat a kindergartener.

Um....

Those tourists who got stuck in the elevator in the Washington Monument. They couldn't test it out first?

Fix Iron Rule: Don't take elevator in national monuments. Washington Monument, St Louis Arch etc.

More likely to catch on: "'Zards" or "Cast Iron Conservatives"?

Trevor A-Three-Za.

What's going on there? Did he forget how to file for his job?

Read this: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/05/13/wait-john-conyers-might-not-qualify-for-the-ballot-after-50-years-in-office/

Which is more likely: Dems retain Senate in November, or USA makes it out of the group stage in Brazil?

Dems in the Senate, definitely.

We ain't making it out of the group stage

Does he have a chance to get the Gov nomination in 17'?

Not if Tony Kormheiser has anything to do with it.

What do you attribute Pryor's lead to?

1. He's run a good campaign so far

2. People know him

3. People don't know Cotton

Who will Tyrion pick as his Champion? If he picks Jamie Lannister he knows his father will tank the match. But if Cersei gets the first pick, she may pick her brother/lover/rapist first!

So, I feel like Meryn Trant is a definite to go against Tyrion. 

Another option: Both the king and Tyrion try to pick Jaime.

Or: The Hound vs the Mountain (that's WaPo editor Dan Eggen's idea)

When are you going to take Politics & Pints on the road? You should seriously consider a college pub tour. It could also lend itself to a realityesque show on MSNBC that can be played at home or in bars across the country.

We ARE going on the road.

Follow the Facebook page for more info!

https://www.facebook.com/politicsandpints

I was intrigued that you picked education as one of the main issues for 2016. What did you have in mind? Universal pre-K, Race to the Top, Common Core standards, high-stakes testing, charter schools? Something college-related? Please elaborate.

Any and all. It's just a ripe topic of discussion and a place where Republicans should go if they want to re-focus the party on more kitchen table issues.

Why is she the only candidate consistently referred to by her first name in the political press, rather than her last name? Avoiding confusion with her husband? Branding? Other?

I do it to keep confusion down. But I also refer to her and her husband by their full names too.

He would have to be Hillary's short list along with Kaine and Warner right?

I think he would be.

You said on Hardball that Hagan being voted out after one term would not be surprising. Other than Dole, who are all these senators from NC voted out after only one term to the point that it creates a tradition of NC voters doing so as often or more than other states?

Lauch Faircloth. Edwards left after a term.

How much trouble do you think Udall is in out in CO?

A significant amount. Garnder is a very solid candidate and CO is a swing state.

That said, udall is a proven name and vote-getter in the state. And he knows he has a real race on his hands.

Is one of the coolest things about messi is that his buy out clause is $343 million?

THere are so many cool things about him. Hoping he has a good World Cup for Argentina.

Last year, I didn't think HRC was running. Now, it seems to me that if she was NOT running, we'd know by now. She's not going to let her beloved Democratic Party down by bailing late in the game. Or are we not at "late in the game" yet?

I think she is running because she is letting people like Tim Kaine endorse the prospect of her running. Seems weird he would do that if she was definitely out or leaning out.

Is TW running away with it?

Not sure if he is running away with it but I think he is a slight favorite over lankford in the primary...

My dog thinks his name is "I love you" because I say it to him so much. Have a nice day, everyone.

This happened.

I don't care when that person posted the question, it was horribly gross.

Yes, yes it was.

I concur on the trial by combat needs to make its way into the political arena, even if a British court kept it out of parking ticket cases: (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1416262/Court-refuses-trial-by-combat.html). Who do you see from the parties who would agree to be their party's "champion"?

Republicans would pick Jon Runyan. That dude is giant.

Grantland predicted the US would win the whole thing. We all know their word is gospel.

Give me Belgium.

Out of roughly the 7 Billion people in the how many of them could do a better job running FIFA than Sepp?

6.99999 billion. What a joke.

So you should have The Fix as a group on ESPN's fantasy game. I already signed up and made picks. Good format and it's amazing to see how tough the matchups are to predict after group play.

GOOD IDEA.

Goodbye Friday afternoon.

No one know's that he's practicing with Bronn

Wouldn't Tyrion know?

This could be big.

I agree.

Though I don't know what you are talking about.

According to Portuguese amigos, their World Cup entry consists of Cristiano Ronaldo and a bunch of other mediocre guys, with little team cohesiveness. So perhaps the US can win that match after all.

CR7 by himself may be enough to beat the US team.

That's all folks!

Thanks for joining me.  Remember we do this thing every Friday at 11 am. Spread the word.

 

In This Chat
Chris Cillizza
Chris Cillizza is the managing editor of PostPolitics and he writes "The Fix," a politics blog for The Washington Post. He also covers the White House for the newspaper and website. Chris has appeared as a guest on NBC, CBS, ABC, MSNBC, Fox News Channel and CNN to talk politics. He lives in Virginia with his wife and sons.
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