The Fix Live

Jan 03, 2014

The Fix's Chris Cillizza discussed the latest in political news.

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With some progressives gaining steam (see: DeBlasio, Warren) is there a chance that there might be an actual movement brewing, similar to the tea party surge around '10? Can the progressives organize a grassroots movement based on income inequality, social issues, etc. to the same level of success as the tea partiers' Obama Rage strategy?

They could. But I would say that it's harder to do so when the party you align yourself with is in the White House.  These movements tend to pick up the most steam when they are fueled by opposition to the current status quo.

So, my guess is that the progressive movement won't match where the tea party was in 2010 unless and until Republicans win back the White House in 2016.

Sally Jesse Raphael meets Rachel Maddow? Get back to black ones. The new pair is unflattering.

They are tortoise shell! I have two new pairs...one is darker...I will do a little of both.

Thanks as always for your honesty.

I heard you mention it on Daily Rundown. Finally you get it, Chris. Democrats support it. Republicans would have to tell working-class members of their party that more money would be bad. Tough sell.

It is a tough strategic decision for Republicans. A majority of Americans want to raise the minimum wage so Republicans need to choose whether they want to be for it and extract a few concessions or oppose it and find a very strong set of policy reasons for doing so.

I think you were too slow to downgrade Rubio. What would it take for the road closing story to make you reevaluate Christie's strength?

The idea that the bridge story is somehow going to bring Christie down in 2016 seems a little much to me. I do think his general attitude, which his detractors would argue the bridge story reveals, is more problematic.

I think Rubio needs to stop talking about immigration (he basically already has) and start re-establishing his bona fides with grassroots conservatives.

You know it's totally a cappella.

A Cappella. Though both make me sick to my stomach.

Mike Shanahan, he was able to make Dan Snyder not the most hated man in the Beltway. Lets just say it, Shanahan is a jerk.

You are correct. http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/who-had-the-worst-week-in-washington-mike-shanahan/2014/01/03/1535cd86-73ea-11e3-8b3f-b1666705ca3b_story.html

What are your sources saying about the new season?

MUCH more Lady Edith!

I kid.

Love your work, Chris, and the "Call your office" tweets. One question, though: What's with the use of "woah" instead of "whoa"? I noticed you were mentioned in this Slate article (http://www.slate.com/articles/life/the_good_word/2013/12/whoa_or_woah_correct_spelling_and_variants_of_the_increasingly_popular_word.html). Is everyone else wrong?

Whoa. I stand corrected.

I wanted to adopt it as my team and you advised against it. Why the kneejerk reaction other than the team being in 1st place?

Because Gunners fan are insufferable.

What do you think the prospects are for the extension of LTU passing both the House and Senate?

They need to find four Senate GOPers to vote for it and then find a way to convince the House.

I think passage is entirely dependent on whether the White House is willing to give Republicans something they want ot Republicans deciding on their own that this isn't a fight worth having.

Republicans win the Michigan or Iowa senate seat?

Michigan.  Simply because they have a well financed candidate (Terri Lynn Land) who has been elected statewide before.

In Iowa, the Republican field is a total mishmash.

I'm a practical Democrat. Branding Wendy Davis the way liberals are doing it will submarine any chance she has of winning. Yes, lots of money and energy, but she will lose men by an epic margin. They should be highlighting her personal story of achievement, not her shoes. That could actually get her closer to winning-if that's more important than just having warm and fuzzy feelings. We've mocked conservatives for the latter. Time to look in the mirror when it comes to Wendy Davis fanatics.

I think Wendy Davis and her team understand that she can't be defined by her stand on abortion if she wants to win.

The problem is that to raise the money they are going to need, they need lots of cash from national Democratic donors who know Davis only for her filibuster.

Its the year of the Chuck Todd goatee!!

Every year is the year of the Chuck Todd goatee. It transcends the time-space continuum.

Monica Hesse and Dan Zak do a pop culture list. How about one for Politics?

In: The Fix

Out: Not The Fix

Is that good?

How does it feel to wear Chuck Todd's shoes the last two days?

Tight. He has smaller feet than me.

odds Landreiu wins re-election?

I would have said 60% a month ago. I now think it's a 50-50 proposition. 

It seems likely she gets pushed into a December runoff with Rep. Cassidy and if that happens much will depend on whether her seat is the majority maker for Republicans or not.

How likely is it to be repealed? How likely are republicans to realize this? How likely are people to notice that the Republicans are doing nothing other than grandstanding vs moving on to the next fight?

It's not.

Which is why I think you are and will continue to see Republicans changing tactics from repeal to improve.

That said, they will attack Democrats in 2014 relentlessly on the botched rollout and the "if you like it, you can keep it" line.

I guess the Broadway career has dried up.....

Kind of fascinating...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2014/01/03/report-clay-aiken-considering-run-for-congress/

Do you have a stylist?

Obviously (not).

When will the first Republican announce for 2016, and who will it be? Who will be the first announced Democrat?

Rand Paul. The day (or two) after the 2014 midterms.

Didn't he also have the Best Week, since he doesn't have to listen to Daniel Snyder anymore.

And he got paid $7 million!

But, my argument is that money is sort of immaterial to Shanahan at this point. (He has a 35,000 square foot house in Colorado.)

What matters most to Shanahan is credibility and power within NFL circles. And both of those took a big hit during his stint with the Washington professional football team.

How did you love that win at Old Trafford on Sunday?

I was NERVOUS after Welbeck scored. But, it was tremendous! Big one in the FA Cup tomorrow...

Hi Chris -- What are the odds that the Republicans keep the House in November and if so, to what can we attribute that? Did the Dems ever really have a chance, or did that go out the window the minute they snatched defeat from the jaws of victory with the health care roll out debacle?

I think its very unlikely that Democrats retake the House. I explain why here: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2013/12/05/theres-not-enough-water-for-a-2014-wave/

...is still getting paid 7mm not to work in 2014. not really a "worst week in washington." just sayin'

Yup....see above.

Rumor has it out of Britain (where the new series of Downton Abbey has already been aired) that the single Lady Edith gets pregnant. So your prediction would be true that there will be more Lady Edith.

Oh dizamn.  Social conventions flouted! Eyebrows raised!

to youse and yours!

Thanks so much. So blessed to have an amazing and loving family and a job that is consistently rewarding and fun.

Happy New Year! Since Congress is quiet can you comment on "American Hustle"? Are you old enough to remember Abscam?

I NEED to go see it...

I'd like to give the WWIW to the state of Oregon. They have enacted a law where if you smoke in a car with anyone under the age of 18, you are breaking the law. Maybe this is good practice, but to make it a law, we need to rename the state the peoples republic of Oregon.

Or the "State of Jefferson"!

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2013/12/31/the-124-states-of-america/

All I can say is, "Ford more years, Ford more years"!!

THis is a genius slogan. Other ideas:

* "Why not me?"

* "I won't smoke crack....anymore."

* "Go Argonauts!"

* "Admit it: You love me"

Have you seen any of the bowl games so far.

Um...parts of many of the big ones. Like the Beef O Bradys bowl...

What's the WaPo going to do without him?

I am not sure whether he is leaving or not....

Ezra is a unique talent with a big audience.  

Why not have a Fix Party in Colorado. We could pass the bong around.

What's a "bong"?

The country hasn't elected an East Coast President since JFK. Maybe it's the self-absorption of East Coasters. You know, much of the rest of America endured a snowstorm-harsher than when it hit NYC-and didn't shut down, didn't act like it was an apocalypse. We are inconvenienced too. We just don't act like our time is more valuable than everybody else's.

Sorry, I wasn't paying attention. I was calculating how much my time was worth.

So apparently Trey Radel (R-Dunk City) will be buying his party favors somewhere other than Dupont Circle this time next year: http://www.nbc-2.com/story/24351240/super-pac-raises-1-million-for-trey-radel-opponent

I posted this just for the (R-Dunk City) thing. 

Not for nothing, Florida Gulf Coast is 8-7 this year.

The Republicans can't seem to get out of their own way. They should be looking at another big mid term election, but with polls showing almost 60% of voters want unemployment benefits extended, the Republicans are against it, and saying stupid things. Do you think they will pass it to ensure it wont be an issue.

I think UI and minimum wage increase will be two BIG tests for Republicans.

You are right that environmentally this should be a very good midterm. But if they let Democrats use these two issues to cast the GOP as out of touch or, worse, uncaring about average people then it could blunt much of the momentum.

Will a four-team playoff format really stop the controversies?

I want a real tourney like the FCS has. Towson vs North Dakota State in Frisco, Texas tomorrow! Go TOWSON.

From early 2014 perspective, who's likely to win: Cheney/Enzi; Scott; Crist?

Enzi -- big time. I see no evidence Liz Cheney is gaining ANY traction at this point.

I think Crist-Scott is a total jump ball. A very expensive race between two deeply flawed candidates.

No, no, the law states clearly that you can't smoke TOBACCO in a car with minors. Smoking other things is actually mandatory in Oregon.

CORRECTION

"You do you."

YES. Also, "it is what it is".

OR

"Vote for the druggie. It's important."

Has there been any update on the DE AG? I have heard nothing since he left Houston.

Good question. A little Googling turnd this up from this past fall.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2013/11/21/beau-biden-mum-on-health/3661633/

How come Chris or Aaron were not named goodwill ambassadors for the Olympics in Sochi. You would have gotten a free trip.

SNUBBED. Story of my life.

I thought you threw up in your mouth when this was mentioned

I just did. Thanks A LOT.

Did you receive any especially fine political-themed gifts?

I did not. I got some nice new dress shirts and a new briefcase from Mrs Fix. Also, 10,000 copies of the Gospel According to the Fix. I bathe in them nightly.

On a scale of 1-10, 10 being 100% will pass, how likely do you think the extension of Unemployment Benefits will pass both chambers of congress?

60?

Does that mean that judicial nominations essentially come to a screeching halt for the remaining two years of the Obama presidency?

Yes, yes it does.

Stepping into the "Duck Dynasty" controversy, good for him? How does Louisiana manage to always make politics interesting?

Louisiana politics -- and southern politics -- are on a totally different level.

It's like the SEC and college football...until last night that is.

Maybe he shouldn't have acted like a RW talk show host during ACA rollout. Good luck to him in his next endeavor.

I always found that criticism ridiculous. Ezra is someone who comes from the ideological left but who has, on many occasions, been quite critical of Democratic programs. He is an analyst, not a partisan activist. It's two very different things.

If you always knew what position he was going to take, reading him would be pretty boring, wouldn't it?

It's hilarious to hear pundits discuss the birth control mandate as if it hurts Obama. Democratic strategists couldn't think of anything better than continuing the "debate" about birth control.

Agree that the more social issues talk dominates, the better for Democrats in 2016. But remember that in 2014 it's likely to be a base vs base election -- and Republican voters are conservative on social issues and hate Obamacare.

If you are a Republican running in a blue or purple state, how do you handle this issue? The ACA is unpopular, but so is repeal. And as enrollments rise, it will be difficult to talk about throwing so many people off their insurance.

I think you say something like: "I voted for President Obama's health care law but I knew it wasn't perfect  -- or even close. And I have been working every day to make it better for average people."

I also think most Democrats will ONLY talk about Obamacare if Republicans bring it up first.

Toronto Mayor showed up bright and early yesterday to file for reelection. What do you think are his odds of even having his candidacy last until election day (in October), let alone winning? Or will enough Torontonians be fed up with his shenanigans to defeat him?

Well, he's lasted this long...And, this exists: http://s3-ec.buzzfed.com/static/2013-12/enhanced/webdr02/23/15/anigif_enhanced-buzz-26881-1387830744-30.gif

Is he running? If so, how do you expect him to do?

I think he WANTS to. I think he sees a Senate race as a pre-cursor to running for President in 2016. Yes, you read that right.

So apparently if you are a liberal like Klein, you are not allowed to state the obvious, that the rollout was a disaster. You have to stick your head in the sand and carry the administrations water at all times.

Right.

I am an unapologetic homer for Mrs. Fix's Catholic U field hockey team but when they play badly, I acknowledge it.

Chris: you are a Spurs fan, right? I think this is the reason you advise against being an Arsenal fan. So I say to the other chatter that s/he should root for whatever team feels right! Also, I'm loving watching the matches this year even if I don't have a team.

Also, Arsenal is evil.

"Yeah, I know it's 'too early," but please, there's no Barack on the horizon to snatch the nomination away from me. I need to start thinking about a Veep. Northeast, no can do. I want a governor. Hopefully Midwest or West. Someone with accomplishments but no controversies. Bullock? If only Bobby Jindal were a Democrat--and popular! Or perhaps I should think out-of-the-box and go military. Thanks for screwing things up Petraeus! Wes Clark is too old (I have to think of the next generation). Maybe I should go with a CEO? What's Jeff Bezos up to?"

Tim Kaine

Mark Warner

 

Please run a video of the old Tim Kaine ad where his wife (just nominated today to be a Virginia cabinet secretary) is silently readying the family for vacation. A legal board of ethics felt this suitcase-packing was okay, but she could not go any further in endorsing a candidate, as she was a judge. I want to see it again as that is so random.

A quick search doesn't turn it up. But I am a notoriously bad Internet searcher.

I was hoping Ford would make a mistake like the congressman from California and file to run for reelection in Detroit or Buffalo.

Would have been amazing.

Do you offer relationship advice at Politics and Pints. Just so you can brag that to Hax.

Absolutely. It's kind of like this: http://ja-nae.net/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/peanuts-lucy-advice.png

Is it possible that as enrollments rise and bugs are worked out, this fades as an issue heading into November? Americans seem to have very short attention spans.

Conservatives will NEVER forget. And, Republicans will use the flubs with the rollout to motivate their base.

Would be if another plausible nominee runs, who is just a little bit to his right. If it's him against Cruz and Paul, he wins. But Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush or Scott Walker could make his path very difficult.

Walker, especially methinks.

I keep reading articles, mainly in conservative publications, that Mark Warner could be in trouble. Is this wishful thinking? My opinion, if Terry McAuliffe can't lose in VA, no Democrat can.

If the national environment collapses on Democrats, anyone -- including Mark Warner -- in a swing state could lose. But, he starts in a VERY strong position.

Would he give up a pretty safe senate seat for him, maybe or maybe not so safe for D's in order to be a VP?

Not that long a list of people who say no to VP. And the governor is a Democrat, who would presumably appoint another Democrat to the seat.

What are the odds that any presidential candidate discusses the issue? If so, who is most likely? Remember that Rand Paul has been backing away from his support for legalization.

I think Rand Paul just might...

Is he running for president? If so, what's his game plan? His name ID is about 5 percent.

I think he would like to.

The plan is this: Run a losing effort to the left of Hillary Clinton and benefit from the attention generated from such a bid.

And there's a chance -- albeit a small one -- things change and he is in a position to be competitive.

Who is your guess about the D and R nominees, eventually? This is getting good, with Kingston wanting kids to be school janitors and such!

Michelle Nunn will be the Democratic nominee.

Thus ends my bold predictions.

Keep patting yourself on the back for how much better you are than East Coasters. You brag about how inconvenienced you were by a snowstorm and how amazing you were for not talking about it - while talking about it. You're a Cardinals fan, aren't you?

If this chat proves anything, it's that I am, in fact, amazing.

If the rollout goes well over the few months, I suspect two things happen: Democratic morale rises Independents move on to something else. You're right that Republicans will remain hostile for a very, very long time.

Think thats probably right.

Does he exude a charisma only political pundits can see? The automaton thing might play out in Wisconsin but I don't see him winning over 50% of the whole country.

He is passionate about his beliefs. But, I agree he is not incredibly charismatic. We shall see how he wears outside of the Midwest if he does decide to run.

Does anyone from either party really want to see him win? I get Scott is vulnerable, but I can't see Democrats trusting him at all.

Democrats want him to win because they really hate Scott.

Note that Republican voters are very hostile to legal pot. Might not be a great move for Rand Paul. But it could motivate some young, Independent voters to back him.

Right...it plays into his argument that he can broaden the GOP's appeal in a general election.

You midwesterners and easterners fight that battle; we in the west know we're far superior when it comes to snow. We have real mountains. Plbbth.

Also, football games start at 10 am on Sundays!

Alright all. That's all I have time for today.

Have a wonderful weekend. Stay warm. Be excellent to each other. And remember we do this every Friday at 11 am. Spread the word!

Chris

In This Chat
Chris Cillizza
Chris Cillizza is the managing editor of PostPolitics and he writes "The Fix," a politics blog for The Washington Post. He also covers the White House for the newspaper and website. Chris has appeared as a guest on NBC, CBS, ABC, MSNBC, Fox News Channel and CNN to talk politics. He lives in Virginia with his wife and sons.
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