The Fix Live

Jul 26, 2013

The Fix's Chris Cillizza discussed the latest in political news.

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If you don't like politics after this week, you should check your pulse.

Let's do it.

I wish they would just come out and say: My husband. My marriage. My business. Not your husband. Not your husband. Not your business. And forbid her husband from discussing it in public. I'm looking for the days of JFK DDE FDR and all the rest.

I get that logic.

At the same time, someone lies -- or, at best, obfuscates -- about his personal dealings could well do the same in his public life.

Character matters.

Last week's Worst Week was given to Steve Cohen. When you read through the comments and cut out the usual comments by idiots, people were pretty much in agreement that you went too far in giving the Worst Week in Washington award to Cohen who was having a bad week, but on a personal level and not a political level, and that considering all of the other contenders, his remark to a reporter being attractive wouldn't have made the cut. There were other more worthy contenders, one of them being Senator McConnell, who at a caucus meeting said he was involved in the filibuster deal throughout, one of his Republican colleagues muttered "bulls--t" and actually verified that comment for the press. In addition, it was seen as a loss, loss with no gain as the Republicans didn't get much of substance outside of two NLRB members being withdrawn and two other being put forward who will be voted on, probably this coming week. Considering the column is supposed to be about politics, do you regret your column last week when it hit someone below the belt for a personal misfortune? Do you regret your column of last week in hindsight?

I think this "question" is longer than my column.

Also, no.

Admit it, you're a little jealous that Silver is going to work alongside Simmons. It's ok. We're here for you. One day you might get called up to the show. But we appreciate you.

A little jealous? Try a lot jealous!

I am thrilled for Nate. Sounds like an awesome gig.

I am working up a piece for this afternoon on why I don't get the critics of him at the New York Times.

If I had to bet right now, I'd say Hillary beats Ted Cruz in 2016. Obviously Clinton isn't a longshot, but the GOP nominee seems up in the air to most. Who votes against Cruz in a Republican primary though? No hug (Christie), no CIR (Rubio), no isolationism (Paul).

I am working on my latest 2016 GOP rankings as I type! It will be up on Fix by 1 pm or so.

Top tier right now: Rubio, Christie, Paul, Walker and Jeb.

Second tier: Paul Walker (of Fast and Furious "fame")

Wow, what a striking attack by Christie. I suspect he won't be the last high-profile Republican to rip into Rand Paul's foreign policy views.

Um, no. But being first in the pool matters too.

Read this if you missed Christie's comments on libertarianism last night: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2013/07/25/christie-goes-after-libertarians-hard/?hpid=z3

Is T-Mc the favorite yet?

I think the Macker is a slight favorite at the moment though my sense -- and most polling -- suggests that most voters aren't paying much attention to the race just yet and, to the extent they are, they don't like their options.

Bob McDonnell's slow motion collapse has hurt Cuccinnelli -- it just dominates the news and hurts the GOP brand.

Did you watch the 1st season?!

Through 6 episodes. Kind of love it. I think Mrs. Fix is in on it too!

Wow, this is the tragedy to Weiner's farce. Sounds like years of horrifying behavior. Is there any indication that people on Capitol Hill knew about Filner's "problem" while he was still in Congress?

It really is awful.  And, Filner did have a run-in at Dulles when he was in Congress. 

Check this out: http://articles.latimes.com/2007/nov/27/nation/na-filner27

Do you think Mike Pence will run for President in 16', or is he hoping for a Democrat win and challenge them in 2020?

He is dropping off our new top 10 -- out later today! -- because he doesn't seem to be making the sort of moves you need to make to run. Plus, there are a lot of big stars getting into the 2016 race -- Rubio, Christie, Rand and maybe Jeb -- so I think Pence might be outshined.

Please keep the Weiner Q&A to a minimum. Please.

Does this count as a Weiner question?

Know you are always looking for good political trivia question. Here is one, which presidential administration since George Washington oversaw the most states admitted into the Union? 

Oooh. Good one...

I guess Steve Cohen & Steve King should be thanking their lucky stars for former Rep. Danger.

Steve King especially. Oomph.

When you are preparing your wish lists for birthdays and Christmas, do you list the likes of Steve King or Anthony Weiner as potential gifts?

HA!

No. But politics continually amazes me. Stranger than fiction.

I feel like your nom de guerre should be Miguel Neurotic.

I am formally adopting this.

If you see random pieces posted on the politics of pro wrestling posted on the Internet by Miguel Neurotic, you'll know who is behind it.

Q: Why is Anthony W. like people on The Antiques Roadshow? A: They like to show their junk to strangers.

Holy guacamole.

How can a candidate for NYC mayor win an award for Washington politics? New York is not the capital. You don't give WWIW to a politician in the middle of the country. Give me a break with your Acela Corridor tunnel vision.

1. I define Washington broadly.

2. I refer you to this line in my "Worst Week" writeup: "Even though Weiner isn’t in Washington anymore, he was all anyone in this town could talk about this past week. For that — and for ensuring that “Carlos Danger” will be in the political-junkie lexicon until, well, forever — Anthony Weiner, you had the worst week in Washington."

Why is Jeb in the top tier other than conventional wisdom that he's a top tier candidate?

Two term governor of a huge swing state (and an early voting state in presidential process.  National fundraising base. Serious policy thinker. 

How 'bout this show?

I need to put this on the watch list. 

Currently Mrs. Fix and I have a list that looks like this:

1. Finish Season 1 "Orphan Black"

2. House of Cards (still have not seen a second)

3. Orange is the New Black

Who resigns/drops out first? (Filner is up to 7 women now accusing him of harasment - including a rear admiral and a dean of San Diego State University!)

I don't know. I would have assumed both of them would be gone by now.

Not sure why you are getting ripped for his WWIW, he did dismiss a reporter by telling her she was attractive. If I did that at work I might be meeting with HR.

Correct!

Sounds like a name Michael Scott would have given his James Bond rip-off character.

It's one for the ages. 

I don't even see this as a matter of "character". When it comes to self-control, "Carlos Danger" makes Bill Clinton look like the Dalai Lama. His juvenile antics before being outed were bad enough, but to immediately resume after his crocodile confession suggest severe mental problems.

Not sure what it suggests but it definitely makes him winning a non starter.

I wrote a piece this AM on how Weiner is increasingly irrelevant in the Mayor's race. It's here: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2013/07/26/anthony-weiners-increasing-irrelevance/?hpid=z4

Have you seen the New Yorker cover this week? http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/culture/2013/07/cover-story-john-cuneo-weiner-carlos-danger.html

Um, yes.

My problem with the Cohen "scandal" is that a reporter snooped through his twitter account, saw him conversing with a woman, and questioned him about it. The only problem is he is a single man. I wish he would have told the reporter to buzz off.

Snooped!  He posted it on a public microblogging site.

The issue is that all of this is a huge distraction - from whether he could govern, from whether he is capable, from whether he could focus on the job and not be distracted again. I think it's extremely selfish to get in a race when you clearly have personal issues that are not resolved. Fix the personal life first, THEN run. Don't run in the midst of it all. Yes - it is their marriage, their business, etc. But it's New Yorkers' governance at issue and it IS their business if they can't trust that this personal business of Weiner's doesn't go away on the taxpayers' dime.

Yes. I agree.

I wrote this morning that Americans love second acts. But we don't like really long first acts, which is what Weiner is putting us through at the moment.

Do you watch THE KILLING? I missed Season 1 and kinda audited Season 2 but this season is pretty great. Not exactly "comfort viewing" though.

I need to.  "In Play" co-host Jackie Kucinich likes this show.

What's "In Play" you ask? Watch this: http://www.washingtonpost.com/posttv/politics/coming-next-week-in-play/2013/07/25/da0d4946-f491-11e2-9434-60440856fadf_video.html

Gotta be Grant (1868-1872).

I get the "my husband, my marriage, my business" sentiment, but when he's sending naked pictures of himself to strangers, which they then give to gossip websites, it is going to get out there and will be an issue in a campaign. Not saying that he has to drop out of the race or that they have to do anything other than realize when you sad, pathetic sexts become public (and they will become public), people might not want to vote for you because you appear sad and pathetic and that might distract them from considering other aspects of your candidacy (or it might not, i.e. Sanford). We can all pine for the good old days when politicians, personal weaknesses were better hidden from the public, but we don't live there so people need to deal with reality.

Also: judgment?

Rank in terms of cringe-worthiness to Republican Party nationally: Steve King Michele Bachmann Rick Perry Darrel Issa Peter King

Worst first:

Steve King

Bachmann

Issa

Perry

Pete King

?

I just threw up in my mouth a little.

Fair to say that the last several weeks have be good for McAuliffe? I would call the race a "toss-up," but with a slight lean to McAuliffe.

Yes and yes.

Officially a poor roll-out, right? What do you think are her major obstacles? Do you think many voters confuse her with her openly gay sister, Mary?

Not much of a rollout actually. She has disappeared. (I assume she is raising money.)

Cheney's name recognition and capacity to raise money likely mean this will be a serious race. But, Enzi looks like a favorite (still) to me.

It's not like the mayor of NYC has his hands on the nuclear codes button, but all the same I'd prefer someone with more self-discipline running the nation's largest city.

Yes. This.

I think Jeb Bush was a great governor and is very smart. However, I don't buy that the only thing holding him back is his last name. If anything it keeps him in the conversation. What other former governor who has been out of office for a decade would get this coverage?

True enough.

I think what's holding him back is that he openly loathes the political hoops you need to jump through to actually get elected president.

I have been following this (but clearly not closely enough) and it seems that both sides have so muddied the waters that I can't conclude much of anything. Any suggestions?

On this you have much in common with the broad swath of the American public.

Who wins? Remember that Quinn has high negatives, particularly among black voters, mostly because she is seen as Bloomberg's fourth term. Bloomberg: popular on Central Park West, not so much on 125th Street.

Weiner vs a potted plant in a runoff -- I like the potted plant's chances. He ain't going to be the Democratic nominee. And I don't even think he makes the runoff.

I know it wouldn't be much consolation to him but if the presidential race doesn't work out for him he has the perfect resume to be someone's VP pick. Young Latino from a swing state like Florida. I don't see anyone trumping that.

Absolutely does. And he is in his early 40s so VP wouldn't be so bad. But he quite clearly has his eye on the top job and, I think, still has a pretty good chance of getting it.

Chris, you're always on the lookout for great TV shows. Have you ever watched Luther on BBC America? It's great.

Got it. 

Feel like BBC America -- which also does Orphan Black -- is making some really good TV.

You might not work with him but you'll always be co-captains of the "All-Annoying Voices Team"

Well, we've got that.

41 for shaving his head. What a sweet, decent man.

Totally agree. Great story.

Jeez, the jokes just write themselves, don't they?

They do.

Anthony Weiner. Carlos Danger. Sydney Leathers. It's like J.K. Rowling started writing porn (under a pen name, obviously). Speaking of Sydney, what's her deal? Did you see the Inside Edition interview? How can she claim to be so manipulated when she was a pretty active participant in those exchanges? And she didn't know who he really was? Um, hello? I won't defend Danger, but she's so obviously in it for the fame, even if it's bad fame.

The names are straight of out a Dickens novel.

Rand is a force to be reckoned with. He's likely to take his father's voters (spend time around libertarians and that should become clear) but with larger appeal to other voters. In Iowa for example, if you take Ron Paul's Iowa caucus percentage from last time and you augment it further you have a probable winning percentage. Rand Paul is my (early) favorite to win the Iowa caucus.

Yup. I think Rand may be the prime mover in the 2016 race. Now that he is the likely nominee but that he will act and everyone else will react. That's certainly been the case so far.

Is he among the walking dead at this point or is his reelection still a more than reasonable prospect at this point?

He's not in great shape. But, if Democrats nominate former GOP Gov;. Charlie Crist  -- and it looks like they will -- then I think Scott has a chance.

 

(It's 23rd POTUS, Benjamin Harrison, with six: North Dakota and South Dakota on November 2, 1889, Montana on November 8, 1889, Washington on November 11, 1889, Idaho on July 3, 1890 and Wyoming on July 10, 1890.)

Trivia answer!

Is Enzi unpopular enough to be thrown out of office for a WINO (Wyomian in name only)? There are going to be diminishing returns on the massive $ going to Cheney considering how cheap the market is, so I really think it's a referendum on Enzi.

WINO!

I think Cheney will make a real run at Enzi. But no one has made a compelling argument to me yet why Wyoming voters decide they want to fire him.

Choices are Winter, Spring, Summer & Fall. Wild card question would any of them shift if we weren't talking about DC climate (like New England Summer for example)

Great question. Best to worst

1. Fall (field hockey season)

2. Summer (pool, summer camp, and, next week, the launch of "In Play")

3. Spring (allergies terrible)

4. Winter (Cold. And the Fix offsprimg are CONSTANTLY sick.)

Benjamin Harrison

Everyone gets it right after i publish the answer!

Remember that most leading Republicans in Washington abhor his foreign policy views -- they think they're really dangerous. I suspect they'll do almost anything to keep him from being the nominee.

Agree. But I wonder whether a concerted effort to keep the nomination from Rand by "DC insiders" makes him stronger in the early voting states.

Must be cursing their summer break passing by with so much to lampoon. Though Colbert and John Oliver seem to be enjoying the easy pickins'.

Seriously.  Absolute treasure trove.

Calling someone attractive does not get one called in to HR. It is only when you do it incessantly and then it is considered obsessive and potential stalking.

Um, this sounds like a voice of experience...

Is he the best Rpublican to take on Nunn? He strikes me as conservative but smart enough not to say crazy things like the other candidates.

Kingston is a sort of establishment conservative who would likely beat Nunn 55-45 or so. Paul Broun could make that race close...

Food taster, stat. I'm not sayin', I'm just sayin'.

HA!

He's a media favorite but has no chance of winning the nomination. Wait until the 1st debate. I will bet you Aaron Rodgers' salary he isn't the nominee.

I am not saying he will be the nominee. Just that he is a top tier candidate and a prime mover in the race.

Also, does Aaron Rodgers know you are betting his salary?

Yet another one looming September 30. Are we just going to keep lurching from one to the next in the foreseeable future?

Yup.

Ah, government.

And you wonder why they enjoy a 90% disapproval rating. Don't reelect anybody has been my goal since '06, for a reason.

Yup. More of this sentiment out in the country than many people realize. And that makes Rand powerful and interesting.

Why does anyone support him at all?

People know his name. That accounts for some of it. Others believe he simply made mistakes in his personal life that have nothing to do with how he would perform in public office.  Some people like to be contrarian. (SHOCK!)

After the Buono campaign's latest debacle (picking a completely unknown union middle-manager as a running mate), who do you think can save the NJ Democratic Party in 4 years? JC Mayor Steve Fulop? Steve Sweeney? Anyone but Buono? Color this NJ Democrat conflicted.

It's remarkable how weak the state party bench is (aside from Booker). With Booker in the Senate, I am not sure who becomes the leader of the party in the state? Does Rob Andrews run for governor in 2017?

How's this for an analysis? Romney, McCain, W, Dole, HW, Reagan, Ford, Nixon. The Establishment ALWAYS wins. (Only possible exception is Reagan.) Social conservatives (Santorum, Huck) lose. Anti-immigrant types (Buchanan) lose. I think this means it's Jeb's to lose.

If he runs, he is a clear frontrunner.

We should use one of those for important announcement in our politics.

I strongly endorse this thought.

f you count the 7 readmitted Confederate States at 3/4 each and add Nebraska = 6 1/4. A Tennessean.

Noted.

We can officially turn out the lights on this race correct?

I turned the lights out a while back.  

Labor lawyer here. Calling someone "attractive" will ABSOLUTELY get you hauled into HR.

Glad we got that figured out by the end of the chat. The Fix chat: Life lessons taught.

And, scene!

Remember to check out The Fix for the latest 2016 GOp field rankings later today. And, "In Play" -- our BRAND NEW all-politics web show -- is coming next week. Watch the promo here: http://www.washingtonpost.com/posttv/politics/coming-next-week-in-play/2013/07/25/da0d4946-f491-11e2-9434-60440856fadf_video.html

Thanks and see everyone back here next Friday at 11 am!

Chris

In This Chat
Chris Cillizza
Chris Cillizza is the managing editor of PostPolitics and he writes "The Fix," a politics blog for The Washington Post. He also covers the White House for the newspaper and website. Chris has appeared as a guest on NBC, CBS, ABC, MSNBC, Fox News Channel and CNN to talk politics. He lives in Virginia with his wife and sons.
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