If the House ends up killing the "path to citizenship" element of the Immigration Bill...given redistricting....will they pay a price in the midterms'.
But, the national party will almost certainly pay a price. If they are seen as killing immigration reform, it's possible the GOP's last best chance to court Hispanics missed.
What's the word on Bob McDonnell? Conservative blogs claim he's working on a deal that involves him resigning.
I don't think he's resigning. But, he has no political future -- or no immediate political future -- anyway.
Does McDonald resign before, or after he gets indicted? Politico this morning seemed to report that there might be some GOP hands on his back slowly pushing him to the door?
Well, the way he would go is if the major leaders in the VA GOP -- Cuccinelli etc -- demanded he go. But remember that McDonell is term limited out anyway next January.
If he wasn't, I think we would be seeing lots and lots of resignation stories right now.
Does the Bob McDonnell stuff hurt Ken Cuccinelli in any way? Or is it too remote for voters to tie to him?
I think Cuccinelli and McAuliffe are so polarizing in their own rights that McDonnell's saga doesn't have a huge impact. That said, I am certain Cuccinnelli and his team would rather it not be happening as he tries to run and win.
Does this guarantee that Governor Patrick will be the new AG now that she has left for a new position?
Well, it certainly removes the most likely replacement for Eric Holder from the national scene.
I can't imagine Holder leaving in the midst of the leak drama but if he does go at some point in the future, it would seem like Patrick would be close to the top of the list.
Never understood why anyone would want that job. It's like being a referee in football, if you are doing a great job no one knows, if something horrible happens its your fault.
It is a VERY tough job. It and AG are the two toughest Cabinet gigs in my opinion although State and Defense are no picnic either...
Hi Chris -- thanks for taking questions today. Can you please explain the current Republican strategy of saying no to everything as a way to take back the WH in 2016? I don't get it.
Well, at least in the House, it's about 2014 not 2016. Remember that the needs and desires -- and electoral realities -- of the House GOP are very different than those of the national party.
That reality is coming to bear on the immigration debate where it's good politics for many Republicans to oppose it in the House and terrible politics for the party more broadly.
Chris, I always laugh when some politician or political writer from the opposite party turns their fauxrage to 11 and states someone is unfit for office. Generally because amazingly, the other party may stand to benefit from having them leave early. Especially in todays day of backdoor donations and corporate money, everyone is doing it. Heck the vast majority of the DC Council would be out according to this standard. The bottom line is Bob has been a good governor. The state has jobs, low taxes and is flourishing. From a practical standpoint, its good enough for me.
"Fauxrage" is a heck of a good word.
Living in Maryland but getting all the DMV news, reading the McDonnell stuff is really interesting. Is this really a downfall for him? Or is it blown out of proportion?
Oh, it's the downfall of his chances of being anywhere near a national ticket in 2016 or in a cabinet for a GOP president in 2017.
Politics -- see Spitzer -- believes in second chances though so it may not be the end of the end for McDonnell.
Just signed up to get passed the pay wall. This chat better be good.
Holy cow. High expectations. I will put on my wittiest hat.
I've been off some days...wht is Sharknado?
Um, this: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/07/12/sharknado-the-best-of-the-twitter-swarm/
I live in Patrick County, Virginia. Beautiful it is; but the people have behavior problems (or drug problems). About an hour ago, one of them drove his blue tractor equipped with a mower blade down my driveway, thru my fence (knocking it down) and is mowing the vacant lot next door. It feels like I am watching a tv program. The police still haven't shown up. Should I confront this crazy person when he finishes - about repairing the fence? I'm taking photos. I used to live in Reston, and am seriously considering moving back where people are normal and sane.
Have you seen enough of the rain?
All I know is that it's raining in Baltimore. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fBROUQ-mMlA
Whats going to be the fallout from this one for Republicans?
Read this: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2013/07/11/the-fight-over-food-stamps-explained/
Heritage and Club for Growth went all in against the farm bill, but lost the vote and a lot of members of your "No!" and "Maybe, not likely" caucuses. Is this the first dent in their armor?
I think it is. I talked to a GOP strategist who said he though Club and Heritage went too far in opposing the stripped down farm bill and pissed off a lot of the 62 conservatives who voted against the original deal.
As I wrote, this was a small victory for Boehner/Cantor/McCarthy but they are in a position where any win is much needed.
It's here: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2013/07/11/the-farm-bill-provides-a-rare-victory-for-house-republicans/
Maybe I'm super out of the loop...but what IS sharknado?
Better question: What isn't it?
Who's the better go-to team in natural disasters....Barack Obama & Chris Christie or Ian Ziering & Tara Reid? #eastcoast/westcoast
The latter. Is it even a question?
Not sure either one comes ahead with their little snit yesterday in regards to the nuclear option of fillibusters. McConnell has looked small before this.
Always remember this: Regular people barely pay attention to politics. They pay even less attention to complicated procedural debates about Senate rules.
Easier waltz: Ed Markey or Cory Booker?
Markey. He's getting sworn in next week!
Hi, Chris~ Do you think it likely that Sarah Palin will run for the Senate?
Read this: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2013/07/10/the-business-of-being-sarah-palin-and-why-she-isnt-running-for-senate/
So, who do you think gets the gig? And will it be a huge fight, since that's an area of the Executive Branch that a lot of the R crowd wants to see reduced significantly?
We are working on a Fix post handicapping the field right now.....stay tuned.
Recognizing the fact that there are politics geeks throughout the country and world, is there any chance that this could expand to bars throughout the country and world and be networked via Skype or some other internet-based platform similar to the NTN trivia games as well as games like QB1?
I want to do this...I am asking the bar and our PR people...send me an email at firstname.lastname@example.org and give me the details of these platforms (if you have the time of course.)
If Weiner wins and Spitzer wins. Could we have the greatest tabloid race for mayor ever in 2017? I am praying to the political gods for this to occur.
Yes. Because I could TOTALLY see Spitzer challenging Weiner in 2017. Also my head is about to explode just thinking about this.
Was Bob McDonnell the runaway winner for Worst Week in Washington?
No comment. But, yes. It will be out soon!
Doesnt Cuccinelli also have the extra burden of distancing himself from the nutty nonsense his Lt. Gov nominee says?
Well, they don't run as a ticket. And I tend to think the idea that an LG candidate can have a big influence on a gubernatorial candidate is a little overblown.
People vote for the top of the ticket.
Whose chances are better? Sanford managed to get elected without the wronged wife standing beside him, which these two guys still have.
Spitzer. Less attention on downballot races and name ID matters more. Both of them work in Spitzer's favor.
What comes first, new DHS confirmation or CIR in the House? CIR pending DHS confirmation?
I think there will be a wait and see deal on CIR until we get a sense of the new DHS nominee.
Any quick thoughts on her taking the UC President's position? What's her motive for doing so?
I think she ultimately would like to be on SCOTUS. (Who wouldn't?!)
And heading up a massive unbiversity system is a nice thing to have on your resume.
A friend loaned me his sets of "The Wire" and I have been binging. How do you think this show compares to other shows about politics like "The West Wing" and "House of Cards"? How far below "FNL" do you rank this program?
I am only mid season 3 on the Wire so I am not informed enough to offer a full opinion.
FNL is the show of all shows.
Mrs Fix and I watched the first episode of "Orphan Black" last night. I liked it, she was skeptical. Do we keep going?
Did anyone foresee former Gov. Spitzer's comeback? The whirlwind of his announcement for NYC Comptroller and now word that he got all the signatures he needs in a mere three days! Wow! Does The Fix had a Best Week national (non- "In Washington") edition?
Well, we all kbnew he wanted back in. He thought about running for something in 09 but (smartly) passed.
So, him running wasn't hugely shockijng although the office he picked and the timing of his announcement surprised me some.
Correct. State's actually a day on your yacht, not a picnic.
Has anyone ever offered you a bribe to losing a basketball game?
No. I don't need to be bribed to lose a basketball game. I can do that with no bribery involved.
So - did you put a fence where there never was one before? Because then you'd just be getting what you asked for.
I'm not sure I'd accept this assessment from someone who doesn't even know the governor's actual name.
The spelling police are out in full force this morning.
What are the chances that either one runs for president? And where would their current supporters go if they don't run?
Ryan: 20%. I think he wants to stay in the House.
Jeb: 40%. I think it genuinely interests him but I don't think he has the stomach to subject himself to the process required to get to the nomination.
Chris,interersted in your thoughts on this exercise: Rank in order of most to least likely: 1) Congress passes comprehensive immigration reform 2) The House turns Blue in 2014 3) The Senate turns Red in 2014 4)Congress passes gun control legislation 5) Republicans win the WH in 2016 6) Dems keep the WH in 2016 without HRC running
Good one! From most likely to least likely
1. Senate turns red in 2014
2. Dems keep WH in 2016 sans HRC
3. GOP wins WH in 2016
4. Immigration reform passes
5. House turns blue in 2014
6. Gun control passes
vin diesel would have been cast as Lincoln and Tara Reid would have played Marry Todd...
No one can argue with this casting.
I saw an awesome tweet last night that said the shark in Sharknado was played by Daniel Day Lewis who stayed in character the entire movie.
Roger Stone tweeted that there is a clamoring for Paladio to make another run. Please tell me this might happen!
I think that is kind of like when a politician says: "Everywhere I go, people ask me to run."
No one ever does that.
Is the fact that these two are doing well in the polls proof that NYC voters care more about celebrity candidates than good government?
It proves that people knowing your name is a good thing. Publicity, good or bad, appears to have been a good-ish thing for Weiner and Spitzer.
But before we begin analyzing what it all means, let's see if they both win.
Why do you think Perry decided to not seek another term? Was it the fear of losing or 2016?
Not fear of losing because he would probably win.
I think he legitimately wants to devote some time to thinking and planning for the possiiblity of running in 2016. I don't see it, as I wrote here: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2013/07/08/why-rick-perry-shouldnt-run-for-president-again/
Chris, thanks for posting the analysis by Chris Koger. My question is this: After reading that, are you still convinced the Democrats are making a mistake by moving to tighten the rules? Given McConnell's intransigence, I don't think they have any other choice if they want to govern.
As I wrote, I don't question the procedural or policy reasons for the move. But, politicall speaking, it doesn't make a lot of sense.
Here's my piece: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2013/07/10/democrats-are-threatening-to-change-the-senates-filibuster-rules-they-should-think-twice-before-they-do-it/
Do you think the success of Sharknado sparks Ian Ziering to consider a run for President in 2016, or do it simply help his chances of scoring a VP nod?
Well, he's certainly catapulted into contention. His shady past in Beverly Hills might come back to bite him though. Somewhere an investigative reporter is trying to track down David Silver....
Does the sequel to Sharknado take place on this world: http://www.nasa.gov/content/nasa-hubble-finds-a-true-blue-planet/#.UeAdIb_Gl69 The only thing that tops Sharknado is a Sharknado on a world where it is 2,000 degrees and it rains glass and wind speeds reach 4,500 mph. And I nominate the Fix to play President of this new world in the sequel.
I accept your nomination as president.
Does Dems keep WH in 2016 jump Senate turning red if Clinton runs?
I think so. She is the heaviest favorite we have seen at this point in a presidential cycle in a long time. Doesn't mean she will run or can't lose but she is a big frontrunner.
Twinkies are back in the stores.I just need a venti iced mocha.
Treated myself to an old fashioned donut and a grande mocha today. Felt like if the sharknado was eventually going to consume us all it was the right thing to do.
Any possibility that people realize that despite their sexual peccadilloes, both men are highly capable politicians?
Well, they are both ahead in their respective races right now...
If Jeb doesn't run, is the next Bush on the national politcal scene George P?
Yup. Governor 's race in Texas in 2024...
Keep the filibuster as is and spend three years stalled. Is that a better option for anybody?
Again, you are debating the procedural merits. I am talking solely about the political impact -- which is almost all bad for Democrats.
How would it rate his chances of winning the NYC Mayoralty? Weiner and Chris Quinn get the headlines, but I think his chances are better than people think.
He almost won last time around...I think it's all about who makes the runoff with Weiner...
An Arlington Police Car was in the movie.... not sure why, but thought you should know
Real question: Why WOULDN'T it be?
Nope. A previous owner installed it. I've been here six years, so it was installed over six years ago. He could easily access the vacant lot (if it is his) from the main road. I have no idea who he is.
Great. Keep me updated.
or I suppose in this case it's pronunciation police -- is "Sharknado" a stupid word, or what?
The only question whether it's a great word or the greatest word.
Paul Ryan is too interested in process to be president. I say that as a compliment (and I did not vote for him last fall). He seems to have the makings of a very good legislative leader/shepherd. He also has the advantage of being smart and not nearly as ideological as some make him out to be.
He's also not terribly interested in politics or building a political team. I personally think not running for president is the right choice for him.
The Huffington Post has an article saying talks are happening. Thoughts?
This interests me.
Keep watching Orphan Black, but do it quickly. BBC America on Demand doesn't kep episodes available too long after they go off the air. I missed the last episode of Spies of Warsaw because I waited too long.
Ok. Will do. It gets better?
Seems unlikely to me that in the space of, like, a day, Sarah could learn to fake everything about Beth Childs...