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June 28, 2013

11
A.M.

The Fix Live

Total Responses: 57

About the hosts

About the host

Host: Chris Cillizza

Chris Cillizza

Chris Cillizza is the managing editor of PostPolitics and he writes "The Fix," a politics blog for The Washington Post. He also covers the White House for the newspaper and website. Chris has appeared as a guest on NBC, CBS, ABC, MSNBC, Fox News Channel and CNN to talk politics. He lives in Virginia with his wife and sons.

About the topic

The Fix's Chris Cillizza discussed the latest in political news.

Follow @TheFix on Twitter.
Q.

Chris Cillizza :

Good morning everyone!  It's been a pretty quiet week in politics, so not much to talk about.  Let's try to make it through the hour.

;)

Q.

Immigration

Two obvious problems for the immigration bill in the House: Few Republicans have any political reason to support it. Few Republicans like it on the merits.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Yes and yes.

People forget that the majority of Republican-held districtsare  less than 10% Hispanic, meaning that it won't impact them in the least if the GOP loses Latino voters forever.

Of course, as a national party, it will be hard to sustain that approach. And therein lies the rub.

– June 28, 2013 11:02 AM
Q.

Rubi-oh no!

It doesn't seem like Rubio has used CRI to launch a 2016 bid. Without that feather in his cap, he seems empty. Not sure why people still think he'd win a GOP primary.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Well, he does deserve some credit to helping to shepherd a bill to passage -- with the votes of 14 other GOPers -- that includes a pathway to citizenship.

Whether or not that bill has any chance of becoming law, Rubio was the critical player in the Senate and he delivered.

I think the politics are very complicated right now...so let's see what the future hold as to whether this was a good, bad or neutral thing for Rubio's 2016 chances.

– June 28, 2013 11:03 AM
Q.

Republicans & same-sex marriage

I predict that the 2016 Republican presidential nominee will oppose same-sex marriage, but will mostly avoid talking about it, except to: (1) Support a "states' rights" approach, opposing any national support for same-sex marriage. (2) Defend opponents of same-sex marriage against charges that they are "bigots."
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Agree on alll fronts.

If you looked at the statements coming out of people like Rand Paul and Marco Rubio, they were very much focused on the need to return power to the states and much less focused on "traditional" marriage.

– June 28, 2013 11:04 AM
Q.

Massachusetts Senate

That turned into a Generic Democrat vs. Generic Republican race. And, shockingly, the Generic Democrat won easily in Democratic Massachusetts. In the end, it most closely resembled the Scott Brown / Elizabeth Warren race (of course, with much, much less public interest). Except in this case, the Generic Republican didn't have the advantages of incumbency, and had less convincing credentials as a moderate.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

An excellent analyis. Agree on all fronts. Check out the piece Fix Sean wrote yesterday on the lack of special-ness in this year's special election: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2013/06/27/the-not-very-special-elections-of-2013/

– June 28, 2013 11:06 AM
Q.

House immigration

Which Republicans in the House are willing to be point people on CRI?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

That's Paul Ryan who has, behind the scenes been working to find common ground with Democrats.

– June 28, 2013 11:07 AM
Q.

Jim DeMint

We really haven't heard much from DeMint since he left the Senate, have we?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

No, we have not.  DeMint made the calculation that he could have as much influence and as high a profile out of office as he had in the Senate.

To date, that doesn't appear to be the case. But we are only six months or so into that experiment.

– June 28, 2013 11:08 AM
Q.

2014

Bold prediction time: What Senate race do you see being potentially close that isn't really on anyone's radar right now a la Johnson/Feingold in 2010, Allen/Webb in 2006, and Bunning/Mongiardo?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Not a lot of good options.

I'll pick Al Franken's re-elect race in Minnesota for the sole reason that he narrowly won in 2008 and there is a self funding GOPer in the race.

– June 28, 2013 11:10 AM
Q.

Susan Collins

Any chance she decides to hang it up like Olympia Snowe? She did just get married.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Possible but I think unlikely. if she does, that immediately becomes Democrats' best pickup chance of 2014.

– June 28, 2013 11:10 AM
Q.

Hillary Clinton

Gut -- running for president or not in 2016?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

I think yes.  Here's why: If she has ANY desire left in her to be president (and I think she does), it's impossible to pass up a race where you start as such a clear favorite to be your party's nominee.

– June 28, 2013 11:11 AM
Q.

Lindsey Graham

Does Graham get a serious primary challenge or not? Who has a tougher Democratic opponent in 2014 -- Tim Scott or Graham?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

I keep waiting for conservative Republicans in the state to find someone really serious to take on Graham but it hasn't happened yet.

His support for the immigration bill may finally flush a contender into the open but remember this: Gragham is an absolutely terrific politician who knows the electoral danger he has put himself in. He isn't going to get surprised.

– June 28, 2013 11:13 AM
Q.

Udalls

Either Udall in trouble? Does either have national potential?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Neither in trouble though I could see a case made for Mark Udall facing a tougher-than-expected fight next fall.

As for national potential, I don't see it. At least not yet.

– June 28, 2013 11:13 AM
Q.

Texas

What year will Democrats win statewide in Texas again? And what office -- A) president, B) governor, C) senator, or D) some other statewide office?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

I think 2020 is the earliest the party can compete presidentially.

I could see a Democrat running somewhat competitively for governor in 2018.

Of course, if Republicans nominate someone really flawed then a Democrat can win...but a generic R vs a generic D is still the GOP's race to lose -- and will be for a while.

– June 28, 2013 11:15 AM
Q.

Red-Headed Woman

Are you a fan of Springsteen's song Red-Headed Woman?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Since Mrs Fix is a redhead, yes, big time.

– June 28, 2013 11:15 AM
Q.

Elizabeth Warren

What's the fascination with Warren running for president in 2016? I mean, the Democrats aren't gonna nominate another liberal academic senator from New England. I mean, we're dumb, but we're not that dumb.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Well, if Hillary doesn't run, then I think there will be a clear spot for a prominent woman to run. And Warren is the most prominent female politician not named Clinton I can think of. And she has demonstrated an ability to a) appeal to the liberal base and b) raise a ton of cash.

– June 28, 2013 11:16 AM
Q.

California

Gavin Newsom, Kamala Harris, Antonio Villaraigosa, and Hilda Solis all have designs on being governor of California. Who gets it in 2018? Do you see any primarying Barbara Boxer in 2016 or Dianne Feinstein in 2018 instead? Or I suppose primarying Jerry Brown in 2014?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Hard to say.

I think Gavin and Kamala are definitely in. Villaigosa definitely wants to run for something else.

And my guess is they will hope that DiFi decides to retire in 2018, so that they have two office to split...

And, no, they ain't primarying Jerry Brown next year.

– June 28, 2013 11:17 AM
Q.

Next Republican Speaker

Who is the next Republican Speaker after John Boehner (whenever he leaves)? Cantor? McCarthy? Ryan? Someone else?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

If I HAD to guess I would say either Ryan or Cantor.

– June 28, 2013 11:18 AM
Q.

Scott Brown

Massachusetts governor's race, Massachusetts Senate race, New Hampshire Senate race, or Fox News contributor in 2014?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Mass governor's race makes BY FAR the most sense if he wants to get back into public life...and I am not sure he does.

– June 28, 2013 11:19 AM
Q.

Landrieu & Pryor

Who is more likely to be back in 2015? Are the odds in either one of their favors for re-election?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Landrieu.  Arkansas is very tough sledding for a Democrat. Even one with a golden last name like Pryor.

– June 28, 2013 11:19 AM
Q.

Shirt-Tie

Please change your shirt or tie before your next TV hit today. It is brutal.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

I got compliments on it!

– June 28, 2013 11:19 AM
Q.

Premature Davis

Wendy Davis is impressive in interviews. She looks like the real deal. Why would Democrats run her now and lose instead of waiting a cycle or two when the demographics have changed more?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Agree. Like I said above, it's very hard to imagine aDemocrat winning the govenorship in 2014. I would circle 2018 if I was anambitious Texas Democratic politician.

– June 28, 2013 11:20 AM
Q.

Another Verizon attraction

Will the addition of OP2 (sorry; had to) give you some incentive to pay attention to the professional ball being played at Gallery Place this winter?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

ABSOLUTELY.

I love Otto Porter Jr and was thrilled he went so high and that the Wizards got him.  You have to root for the guy.

– June 28, 2013 11:21 AM
Q.

Politcal Darft

Loved the twitter political draft last night! Did you have a favorite? I have one- Martin O'Malley- "great motor, moving all the time. Great moving to his left but needs to work on driving to the center. A little unknown outside the hotbed of the Washington/MD area."
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Thanks! I was home alone -- Mrs Fix was busy -- and Fix Jr and Fix III were in bed...so I was watching the NBA Draft and though "Why don't we have a political draft".

If you care, search for the #politicaldraft on Twitter and see all the cool (and funny) nominees.

– June 28, 2013 11:22 AM
Q.

Obvious

The obvious questions. What are you drinking and listening to?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Water. (Been up since 6 am so have to hydrate)

New Vampire Weekend. Album is absolutely incredible.

– June 28, 2013 11:23 AM
Q.

Do the Republicans have a Clinton?

I hear lots of comparisons between today's GOP and the Democratic Party of the 70s and 80s (party and candidates too ideologically "pure" to win elections). Clinton reversed the Democrats' fortunes and steered them toward the center. Is there a Clinton in the GOP who could do the same for them?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Christie? Rubio? Jeb? Rand?

I think all of them have, at least in theory, an appeal that extends beyond the traditional R base. The issue? Can any one them get through a Republican primary?

– June 28, 2013 11:23 AM
Q.

House GOP

Dont really see how the bill makes it through the House. Boehner simply cannot pass it with a caucus that gives him headaches all the time
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Unless he decides he is going for his legacy and retiring at the end of the 113th Congress...

I'm not saying, I'm just saying.

– June 28, 2013 11:24 AM
Q.

Kevin McCarthy

Can he even be relied on to whip the votes for immigration. He has had a hard time counting votes.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Well, he won "Worst Week" last week: http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/who-had-the-worst-week-in-washington-house-majority-whip-kevin-mccarthy/2013/06/21/c5a70068-d9e9-11e2-a9f2-42ee3912ae0e_story.html

– June 28, 2013 11:25 AM
Q.

CM Punk

Dont really see why he is now feuding with Brock Lesnar. They are reaching
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Punk is the best thing to happen to wrestling in the past 15 years. Lesnar is among the worst.

– June 28, 2013 11:25 AM
Q.

Confederations Cup

Who do you have on Sunday. Just cannot see Spain losing.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Agree.

Though I was proud of how Italy played. I thought they asquiited themselves quite nicely and I am excited (or even more excited) for World Cup now.

– June 28, 2013 11:26 AM
Q.

John Oliver

Good replacement for Jon Stewart?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

I say yes...though I had someone else in mind....wait for it...wait for it...Me.

– June 28, 2013 11:27 AM
Q.

Hillary Clinton, Part Two

Given your response to an earlier question about a Clinton candidacy, does she benefit from a primary battle or would it be better to have a clear path to the general election? And, by "better," I mean make her election more inevitable.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

I think she would be helped by a semi-serious challenge from her ideological left in the primary to show general election voters that she is not a reflexive liberal.

– June 28, 2013 11:27 AM
Q.

Paul McCartney

Are you going to see Paul in a couple of weeks?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Nah. I only go to see "The Fresh Beat Band" live in concert nowadays.  

– June 28, 2013 11:28 AM
Q.

The Daily Rundown

Great job hosting The Daily Rundown these last few days. Who was the guy you gave a shout out to at the end today?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Thanks!

A great guy who used to work on the show named John Bailey. It's his last day at NBC today because he is going to Duke Law School in the fall.

And, yes, I am well aware that there is a 50-50 chance John Bailey asked this question to get his name mentioned in my chat. If so, well played sir.

– June 28, 2013 11:29 AM
Q.

Goatee

Could you ever grow a goatee that comes close to Chuck Todd's?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Never.  If I ever grow facvial hair, it's going to be something like this: http://www.realclearsports.com/blognetwork/rcs_sidelines/Rollie%20mustache.jpg

– June 28, 2013 11:30 AM
Q.

Paywall

How are the subscriptions going?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

I think pretty well!  I don't keep all that close tabs on it since I am really focused on getting "In Play", my new political show with Jackie Kucinich, launched! (Coming to a computer near you next month!)

But, I think well. If you haven't read my thoughts on the paywall, you can here: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2013/06/12/the-washington-post-paywall-goes-up/

– June 28, 2013 11:32 AM
Q.

How about another Santorum?

Does the GOP have the muscle to keep him or Santorum-like candidates (religious, very right-wing, not a snowball's chance of winning the general election0 out of the primaries in 2016?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Keep them out of the primaries? No.  Anyone can run and my guess is the 2016 GOP field will be crowded.

But, for all the focus on the power of conservatives in 2012, Mitt Romney, who wasn't close to their first choice, wound up as the nominee. Ditto John McCain in 2008.

The conservatives in the GOP matter but they don't have a determinative influence on the identity of their party's presidential nominees.

– June 28, 2013 11:33 AM
Q.

Howard Dean

How serious is he about running in 2016? He seems ornery enough to run just to spite the Clintons.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Well, he fits the profile -- someone with a committed following on the left -- who could make a case against Clinton. Russ Feingold might be another name you hear about...

– June 28, 2013 11:35 AM
Q.

History repeating itself???

Chris Cillizza : I think she would be helped by a semi-serious challenge from her ideological left in the primary to show general election voters that she is not a reflexive liberal. Those semi-serious challenges from the left can prove more problemmatic than expected . . . .
A.
Chris Cillizza :

"Semi-serious" is the key. Barack Obama was a lot more than "semi-serious".

– June 28, 2013 11:35 AM
Q.

Issa

Is Carl Issa considered an embarrassment within the Republican Party?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Who is this Carl Issa you speak of?

– June 28, 2013 11:36 AM
Q.

ranking sports

Chris, rank these sports in the order that you'd like to be a pro in them in some hypothetical fantasy world. Your choices are basketball, baseball, golf, hockey, tennis, football, race car driver, boxing, billiards, & soccer.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

From most want to least

1.Basketball (Obvs)

2.  Soccer

3. Baseball (season is too long to rank higher)

4. Golf/Tennis 

5. Billiards

And I would never drive a race a car, play football or box. No chance.

– June 28, 2013 11:37 AM
Q.

Republicans & same-sex marriage

I agree that it is unlikely any 2016 Republicans will endorse same-sex marriage, or even the Employment Non-Discrimination Act. But they will have to find some way to show that they are not personally hostile to gays. How will they do that?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

By emphasizing that:

1. The rhetoric needs to be toned down by some voices in their party

2. By emphasizing the need for states to make their own decisions.

– June 28, 2013 11:38 AM
Q.

Texas president?

Never mind. I get it now. Glad it's Friday. But doesn't Texas strike you as the sort of state that would have a President?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Ha!

The Fix In Laws all live in Texas.  I love several things about Texas:

1. Rudy's  BBQ

2. Brahm's ice cream

3. Rudy's BBQ 

– June 28, 2013 11:40 AM
Q.

2016

What's the juiciest general election matchup. HRC vs Rubio- we would either have the first women or first hispanic in office. Although- Jeb v HRC would be Clinton vs Bush again.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Oh, Jeb vs HRC. Epic. Clash of the titans.

– June 28, 2013 11:40 AM
Q.

Spain vs Brazil

Who you got? Should be a fun game Sunday.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

I'll take Spain because of Iniesta and Xavi.

– June 28, 2013 11:41 AM
Q.

WAGs

Soccer, tennis, and hockey players do unbelievably well with the ladies. Just saying. You might get your teeth knocked out in hockey and you travel a lot in tennis. Soccer seems like the best call. I mean, being rich and dating models while living in Spain seems OK...
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Agree. Also the best paid.

I view myself as the Fernando Torres of political journalism. (And, yes, I understand that 10 people -- maybe -- will get that reference.)

– June 28, 2013 11:42 AM
Q.

TDS

the fact that john oliver is so good is a testament to the writing staff, yes?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

And to the fact that he is really talented too. Having hosted some TV -- I have many leather bound books -- I can tell you that sitting in the anchor chair is no easy task.

– June 28, 2013 11:43 AM
Q.

Under the Dome

If we were to put the Capitol under an invisible dome that bi-sected cows and cut off cell phone traffic.....how long before they would actually make decisions on the Debt Ceiling and Immigration?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Hollywood writers currently figuring how to write this into "Under the Dome" 2nd season plot.

– June 28, 2013 11:44 AM
Q.

Chazz Palminteri

Where is he now?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Um.....

– June 28, 2013 11:44 AM
Q.

Eric Holder

Saw him coming out of Penn Station, New York the other evening. Dude travels by Acela?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Apropos of very little, here's my fav song about Penn Station: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_8wm66LdSM0

– June 28, 2013 11:45 AM
Q.

Wendy Davis

Does she turn into Ann Richards (wins statewide office in Texas) or Cecile Richards (head of national feminist organization)?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

I think she would prefer the Ann Richards route since she is already in elected office.

– June 28, 2013 11:46 AM
Q.

Don't forget Texas music

It's like the stuff you usually listen too, but with fiddles and/or accordians instead of mumbling neo-hippes.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

So true. Most unlikely Texas musician? Roy Orbison. Also, you would be STUNNED by how many musicians were born in Texas. It's remarkable.

– June 28, 2013 11:47 AM
Q.

Homeland

What do you think of that tv show? I think It shows very accurately how DC works True? It's amazing
A.
Chris Cillizza :

I can see you are new to the chat. I LOVE the show. Mrs Fix and I ordered Showtime just so we could watch it.

Nicholas Brody represented me in Congress.

– June 28, 2013 11:48 AM
Q.

House not in play

Nice conversation this morning on how hard it is to turn the House around. Rep. Reichert wins in the WA-8 District because of a iconic video of when he was Sheriff during the WTO riots, of running up to a couple of anarchists and scaring them away while brandishing his nightstick. Also, the section of King County suburbs he represents has always been swing. It has Jennifer Dunn (R) there for awhile.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Yup.  Members who win seats that vote for the other party almost always do so because they have been able to distinguish themselves from their national party. They have carved out their own identity...and Reichert's role as King County Sheriif and his role in capturing the Green River Killer means people there know him as being more than just a Republican in Congress. 

– June 28, 2013 11:50 AM
Q.

Politics in the Summer

How do DC reports best gauge the rest of the nation's interest in political stories during the summer of an off-cycle election year? This week *seemed* huge but do you think anything outside of SCOTUS rulings are resonating with the public?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

SO hard to know. My general approach is to assume all of the things that seem like mountains in DC tend to be viewed as molehills by the broader public.

– June 28, 2013 11:51 AM
Q.

Tammy Duckworth

After this week, how eager are Democrats for her to challenge Mark Kirk in 2016?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

She will certainly get lots of mentions...

– June 28, 2013 11:52 AM
Q.

Rand Paul

Every Fixista knows your obsession with Rand Paul. After his gay marriage comment, maybe his stock finally will go down because, ya know, young people won't vote for anti-drone, anti-gay Republican.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Not obsessed at all. But, do I think Rand Paul is underestimated by much of the political establishment when they handicap the 2016 race? Absolutely yes.

– June 28, 2013 11:53 AM
Q.

Best Fix (Alum)

Where has the Artist Formerly Known as Fix Felicia gone? The political world turns its lonely eyes to her.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

She moved to China! Follow her on Twitter @feliciasonmez

– June 28, 2013 11:54 AM
Q.

Wendy Davis

I want to see her succeed as much as anyone, but the Democratic Party in Texas is more or less nonexistent. It seems there's a lot of work to do on the operational level in terms of laying a foundation before she can become anything other than Fort Worth's woman in Austin.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Absolutely agree. 2018 is the soonest a Dem can make a legit case to be elected governor, methinks.

– June 28, 2013 11:55 AM
Q.

Chris Cillizza :

Ok, folks!  Thanks so much for joining me! I will be off next Friday, July 5, but back at it on Friday July 12 at 11 am.  Tune in. Spread the word.

Chris

Q.

 

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