The Fix Live

Mar 22, 2013

The Fix's Chris Cillizza discussed the latest in political news.

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Sorry for delay. The Internets broke. But I am here now.

Let's do this thing.

What's up with all the Leno promos? No love for the other boys - Letterman, Fallon, Kimmel, Colbert, Stewart?

Off on the right foot!

Hi Chris, Amazing BW story this morning about the once-possible "unity ticket" between Santorum and Gingrich. I would've loved to have been a fly on the wall when those two were fighting over who would be prez and who would be veep. What do you think?? Could this have worked? Any historical precedence for something like this?

AMAZING story by my friend Josh Green.

I feel as though these plans to make a fusion ticket never work out -- and never work out for a very specific reason: Because neither one of the politicians want to play second fiddle. Which is the problem here.

I am not sure if it could have worked. But a Santorum-Newt or Newt=Santorum ticket would have been incredibly intriguing.

Maybe Rand Paul learned that he shouldn't talk nonstop about the Fed if he wanted attention. Just saying.

I think people drastically understimate Rand's abilities. He is not his dad -- he is far more politically astute and charismatic.

He is a top tier candidate in 2016. I am not sure he can win the nomination but he will be in the mix.

You have Paul Ryan ranked at #6 on the R side of your bracket. What accounts for Such a low ranking? I thought the consensus was that he acquitted himself well as the VP candidate. Why would he not be at least in the top 3?

I just am not sure that a policy wonk with no political people around him is the best fit for a presidential race.

I think Ryan will be in the mix but  I think others -- Rubio, Jeb, Rand, Jindal -- are all doing more than he is at the moment to position for 2016.

I also wonder how he would do as the lead on the ticket rather than the second slot.

Isn't the talk of the difficulties that the Republican party faces a bit overblown? After 2004 the death of the Dems was reported for the next 6 months. I attribute the Dem victory is 2012 to one simple reason. Barack Obama is a likable guy, while Mitt Romney was not.

The demographics are very problematic for Republicans.

But, I do agree that one really talented candidate can change a party's fortunes pretty quickly.

LOL.

I don't get it. I really don't.

There is NO evidence from the 2012 race that there are people pining for him to run again.

Is he more Dean or Obama?

I think he wants to be the liberal-est candidate in the field. And that might work, unless Elizabeth Warren runs.

Fallon vs. Leno - what will NBC do?

Um....

Cory Booker will regret not running for Governor of NJ one year from now?

False.

I think Christie is hard to beat. And Booker is a heavy favorite to be the next Senator.

Which Republicans will definitely run in 2016? There is a lot of talk that Christie, Rubio and Ryan would be strong contenders for the GOP nomination but what signs are there that they're seriously considering a run?

Jindal

Christie

Rubio

Rand

I think those 4 are in for sure.  Christie is the one I am the least certain of that quartet.

Jeb and Paul Ryan I am a little less certain on whether they get in or not.

Let's get behind Ashley Judd - prognosis???

Given her profile, I think Dems would be better off with Alison Grimes.  

Judd can raise money -- yes -- but she also allows Mitch McConnell to do what he wants to do: Make the race about someone other than him.

Wouldn't have liked to be a fly on the wall to hear that conversation on which of them would head the ticket?

Frankly and fundamentally, yes.

Do you think Paul Ryan has proven himself politically irrelevant by proposing the same rejected ideas over and over again?

Not with the GOP base who thinks Ryan is a thought leader willing to make hard choices to get rid of the country's debt...

Fix, are you so busy making bets on Syracuse that you can't start your blog on time?

Wow. Montana REALLY didn't show up last night. Man.  

You're entering Wilbon famous territory with your TV & radio appearances. But unfortunately, for years we all had to live under Wilbon chat time, which was 15 minutes later than actual time. Will we all start having to live under "The Fix" time from now on?

This is the first time anyone has ever compared me to Wilbon. Given that he and Mr. Tony  are gods in my world, I am printing this question out and saving it for all time.

How's the series coming? Up to season 5 yet?

I have hit a wall. End of Season 2.

Noticed that you drink mochachinos and eat muffins during these chats and wanted to advise you that one day that sort of thing is going to catch up with you and you'll find you're a very hefty 300 plus pound guy who could be a candidate for The Biggest Loser.

I know. My anxiety keeps my metabolism up.

Does the announcement that Hillary Clinton supports gay marrage show anything about her interest in running for President or is that just wild speculation?

I think it means she wants to leave open the possibility of running in 2016 and she knows that she needed to get right on the issue asap.

I disagree. I don't think any ordinary Democrat takes out McConnell in a traditional race, but Judd can shake things up and actually make him campaign under a spotlight.

We may get a chance to test that theory.

Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell will be unemployed in 10 months. After a successful 4 year term in the Old Dominion, do you see him running for president?

I think he and his people want his name in the mix. I think he could run although I don't see him as a top tier guy yet. 

Time will tell. It's possible he could make a run at it...although the deal he and thw VA legislature cut on transportation might be an issue for hardline fiscal conservatives.

Is Reid still seriously planning putting the gun safety bills all in one yes-or-no bundle? With certain provisions wildly popular (background checks) and others still too much for GOPers and red state Dems to swallow (assault weapons/clips), why not make them all free-standing in hopes that some will succeed?

No. He has stripped the main bill down to one BIG measure -- background checks -- and dropped assault weapons and high capacity magazines, under the theory they wouldn't pass.

Each of those proposals will get their own vote but I don't think the outlook is all that good for gun control advocates at the moment.

With Obama winning the Presidency in 2008 with relatively little national experience, has a new precedent been set for ideal candidate for President? We are hearing a lot about folks like Rand Paul and Elizabeth Warren for 2016, who in years past would likely have not even gotten serious consideration.

I do think he has changed how ambitious national pols think about their rise(s).

At the same time, Obama benefited from remarkably good timing and a once in a generation ability as a campaigner. So, to assume 2016ers can simply follow in his footsteps might be a mistake.

The other reason this is being discussed so much among the cognoscenti is that your colleagues in the Increasingly Irrelevant MSM want it to be so. They figure the more they hammer home the inaccurate "hostile to Hispanics" theme, the more resonance it will have.

That's one way to look at it.

But, the media didn't tell Mitt Romney to say "self deportation".

Paul Ryan didn't help Romney win the election, Wisconsin or even his home voting precinct.

Vice presidents don't. The last VP to really help a presidential candidate win an election was LBJ for Jack Kennedy in 1960.

So I am not sure we should hold that against Ryan.

Chuck Todd is presently taking questions over on a Twitter hashtag. Do you think you can out-chat him?

Holy cow. it is on.

Swampy Tech, as it's known down here, can put up some points. They may get to 40 or 45, which spells doom for your boys.

I am worried. We have had so little NCAA tournament success in recent years that I feel I have a reason to be.

PLEASE let this year be different.

Dude, Reagan-Bush, the ultimate fusion ticket. How quickly they forget... Also, Kennedy-Johnson. A fusion ticket has to represent at least two wings of the party (ideological or geographical) and has to be people who you wouldn't necessarily think would go together, like Kim and Kanye.

Those were not made DURING the primary. It was made after the primary had picked the nominee. That's not what we were talking about with Newt and Rick or Newtorum as I call them.

Why is he not mentioned for the KY senate race?

Because he has lost a bunch of races.

As an Albany alum I'd love to believe they have a chance. But losing to #15 Lehigh last year effectively ended any chance of Duke looking past the Great Danes... But at least we're in the tourney...

The world is rooting for Albany. We are all Great Danes.

Perhaps Gingrich and Santorum would have been better positioned to run for Pope than President? They are both older, Catholic white males.

ZING!

Any reason why Scott Walker isn't in your list of likely 2016 candidates?

He is!

He's a #11 seed in our Sweet 2016 bracket competition!

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2013/03/20/the-fixs-sweet-2016-bracket-competition/

Surpised he ranked that high. He was a better VEEP candidate that Palin, buy how hard is that? During the campaign he appeared to be using the same fact checking consultants as Michele Bachmann, and what was he thinking, lieing about his marathon time?

The other side of the Ryan coin.

Liked your column about the gay marriage poll. Interesting quote about how television helped people's thinking evolve about this issue. Do we know the earliest portrayal of a gay character on TV? I'm thinking it must have been Billy Crystal's character on "Soap," which aired during the 1970s. (I was a kid during the 1970s and didn't see it, but have since watched it on Netflix.)

A good question that I don't know the answer to. Anyone?

Also, here's the column in question: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2013/03/21/support-for-gay-marriage-is-soaring-heres-why/

Is the PA governor going to break the streak of incumbents winning reelection?

It's going to be a very tough race for him. Allyson Schwartz, a Dem member of Congress from the Philly area, is moving aggressively toward the race and should be able to raise a ton of dough.

Everyone assumes that his last name will be a draw back for him. While he was a fine Governor, if his name were Busch, would anyone consider a candidate out of office for 7 years a credible option?

I don't buy that his last name is a problem for him in a Republican primary in 2016.

George W. Bush's image has been improving with every day since he left office and come 2016 my guess is he will be a neutral or even a slight positive in a GOP primary fight.

Sure, lots of senators have been bought or intimidated by the NRA, but do these people realize the extent to which thay are out of step with voters? Support for the bill was through the roof. I suspect that guns will be the "legitimate rape" issue of the 2014 elections.

Well, lots of Democrats seem to not want to vote for a gun bill that includes things like bans on high capacity magazines and the assault weapons ban too.

Remember that Harry Reid said this week that there were just 40 votes for Dianne Feinstein's assault weapons ban. There are currently 55 Democrats in the Senate.

Please join me in booing the IVY win. If they take over our sports what will be left for us mentally average folks?

Couldn't agree more.

It's like when really good looking people are also endearing and smart.

Not fair.

So the best you can hope for with the Veep choice is "do no harm" to the ticket. Which would include Joe Biden and Dick Cheney?

I just think the strategy of picking a VP has changed.

Geography is much less of a frontburner concern now. The most important thing is shoring up a character/candidate weak point.

Cheney and Biden were both steady, experienced hands for presidential nominees with relatively thin resumes.

Serious question--I acknowledge that you are one of the few non-partisan types doing political analysis and that you genuinely don't have a horse in the race. But you do know that your analysis of who's up and who's down can influence how much power others think that a particular politician has, and therefore effect policy outcomes, right?

Sure.

But, I am doing my analysis based on my non partisan read of situations. What people do with my analysis is out of my hands.

Is there ANYTHING that would make it possible to pass serious gun control legislation in this country? Clearly even 20 dead little children wasn't enough.

I do think it's a stunning moment. Newtown changed less than people thought. I am working on a piece on this for later today on the Fix. Stay tuned.

I think Hillary Clinton's endorsement of gay marriage marks the point when support for SSM became *mandatory* for a national Democrat. (Although I suspect she would have backed it earlier, if she had not been Secretary of State). I think Rob Portman's endorsement of gay marriage marks the point when support for SSM became *optional* for a national Republican. (I think Dick Cheney was a special case). But note that while many GOP officeholders had respectful things to say about Portman, none of them followed him in supporting SSM. The GOP base is still pretty darned anti-SSM.

Totally agree on it being a "must" issue for Democrats who want to run for president.

in 1971, there was a character on All in the Family that was gay - one of Mike's friends. Story-line developed because it took Archie a while to figure it out.

Thanks! 

It is amazing the influence Archie Bunker Show had on the culture. Fracturing of TV stations/shows means no one show could have that impact now, right?

I'm sure Rick would prefer Sangrich.

Santonewt!

I am fascinated that either of them thought santorum being on the ticket in any way would represent them winning. Seriously? they would never have won Pennsylvania. people there aren't fond of Santorum, to put it mildly.

Right. That's my thought too. It would have gotten a ton of press coverage but I am not sure they wind up as the nominees just because they joined a unity ticket.

Rank in order, in likelihood of losing: Rick Snyder Tom Corbett Paul LePage Rick Scott

From most likely to least likely:

Rick Scott

Corbett

LePage 

Snyder

Tim Johnson is retiring. Why is he waiting to announce?

I think he is leaving too. As for why, who knows? My conspiracy theory: He is trying to lay the ground work for his son, Brendan, to be the Dem nominee.

Who knows though? He might run again...

I'm still waiting for my Fix book/caption prize, Chris. I need to read it before 2016, haha.

Always available: http://www.amazon.com/Gospel-According-Fix-Insiders-Politics/dp/0307987094

I normally agree with (or at least understand) most of what you write. But this astounded me: George W. Bush's image has been improving with every day since he left office and come 2016 my guess is he will be a neutral or even a slight positive in a GOP primary fight. How can you say that? He was clearly a persona non grata at Mitt's convention, which was four years after leaving office. How since then has his reputation improved? The slew of "Iraq 10 years later" stories can't have helped. I thought that one of the few things Republicans and Democrats agree on (albeit for different reasons) is that W was a disaster.

We shall see. I just don't think he will be the persona non grata in four years time.

Why Walker was able to survive his recall and Romney&Ryan could not win?

Recalling a governor is different than winning a state at the presidential level.

Just a totally different dynamic. I would think that Dems who pushed for the recall would admit now that they should have waited until 2014 to try and oust Walker.

Best. Sitcom. Ever.

Better than "Being Biden"?

Or "And another thing....with Joe Biden"?

Better than "Being Biden"?

Or "And another thing...with Joe Biden"?

I prefer "Sangrich" -- as in, I like a lot of ham in my Sangrich.

This is a winner.

I remember that - it wasn't Mike's friend, it was Archie's drinking buddy at the bar - a guy who looked and grew up just like he did (meaning they weren't all that different) Really a groundbreaking show on many levels - and very brave writers/executives for the time

This chat is going DEEP into Archie Bunker minutiae.

Will, and if where will Mr. Fix be watching the Hoyas?

At Fix HQ with my buddy and the best doctor around Bart Radolinski.

I am already nervous.

Just started reading today's chat. Any chance you can post the link?

OF COURSE

 

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-03-22/the-secret-gingrich-santorum-unity-ticket-that-nearly-toppled-romney#r=hp-lst

Any mention of gay characters on TV has to include Jodie from Soap (also Billy Crystal's breakout role).

Yup. Has been mentioned several times.

In honor of the (non-existent) Midwestern spring, I am having a honey lavender latte. What's in The Fix coffee cup today?

Whoah. That sounds good.

I have been up since 5:30 am and have already consumed:

1. grande mocha

2. Bagel sandwich

3. Snapple ice tea

1971 All in the Family becomes the first TV sitcom to depict a gay character. Archie Bunker mocks Mike's friend Roger, whom he considers effeminate. Roger, it turns out, is straight — but Archie's macho bar buddy Steve is gay. This groundbreaking sitcom would explore homosexuality again in 1977. Archie discovers wife Edith's cousin was a lesbian and has left her estate to the woman she lived with.

AHA! 

Chris Cillizza: I don't buy that his last name is a problem for him in a Republican primary in 2016. George W. Bush's image has been improving with every day since he left office and come 2016 my guess is he will be a neutral or even a slight positive in a GOP primary fight. Chris, please cite a single poll that shows any statistically significant uptick in Dubya's approval rating. He is still so toxic that no one mentioned him at the GOP convention, and he's not exactly in demand to campaign on behalf of candidates. If you're offering a bet about his image in 2016, I'll be delighted to take you up on it.

My argument is NOT that George Bush will be out campaigning fot his brother.  Instead, I am saying that Jeb Bush has enough of a profile in his own right and George W's image by then won't be so toxic that it will keep him out of the top tier if he wants to run.

For the NRA and the politicians - yes. But a majority of people now support, stricter laws on sales, banning high capacity clips, universal background checks, etc. Just because the politicians are cowards doesn't mean things didnt change

But, Congress makes the laws. And people elect members. Right?

Who's Paul Ryan?

BAM.

Rank in order of likelihood of losing: Mark Pryor Mary Landrieu Max Baucus Mark Begich

From most to least likely to lose

Pryor (if Tom Cotton runs)

Landrieu

Begich

Baucus

Rank these things from most to least: Chevy Malibu, Chicken Pox, Chris Christie, Bowling, String Theory, Yiddish.

Bowling (Lebowski)

Chris Christie

Yiddish

Strong Theory

Malibu

Chicken Pox

There's a difference between his image among Republican primary voters and everybody else. I would suspect that he already has a net positive rating among the first group.

I would agree. And that's my point. He will not be toxic or disqualifying for his brother.

I'm in State College, PA. People here are still furious over his role in the Sandusky/Paterno/Penn State debacle. He's going to have a tough time getting reelected.

Yup.

... Is my the Hold Steady cover band.

I was JUST listening to Craig Finn.

Ok folks! That's all for this week. I learned more about Archie Bunker than I thought I would!

See you NEXT Friday at 11 am for even more hilarity and hijinks!

HOYA SAXA.

Chris

In This Chat
Chris Cillizza
Chris Cillizza is the managing editor of PostPolitics and he writes "The Fix," a politics blog for The Washington Post. He also covers the White House for the newspaper and website. Chris has appeared as a guest on NBC, CBS, ABC, MSNBC, Fox News Channel and CNN to talk politics. He lives in Virginia with his wife and sons.
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