The Fix Live

Jan 11, 2013

The Fix's Chris Cillizza discussed the latest in political news.

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Hello! Apolgoies for the late start but I was on Diane Rehm's show this morning -- name drop alert! -- so it's been busy!

Let's do this thing.

Hi Chris, In the history of DC has anyone ever gone so quickly from JFK to Nixon than Mike Shanahan has?

HA! So true. 

And, I don't want to spoil any surprises but the winner of "Worst Week" this week has the initials M.S.

Who else do you see going? Who are some replacement ideas?

I think who has gone is probably who will go for the next year or so at least.

I can't imagine Eric Holder will stay for two full terms and if he goes and Janet Napoilitano gets his job then there will be an opening at Homeland Security.

My guess is some of the lower level Cabinet jobs will turn over too...but who knows.

Rank the following potential 2016 candidates in terms of the threat they pose to Marco Rubio winning the nomination (biggest to smallest): Paul Ryan, Chris Christie, Rand Paul, and Ted Cruz?

Chris Christie

Paul Ryan

Rand

Ted Cruz

I don't think Cruz runs in 2016.

Biggest threats to Rubio (I think) are Jindal and Jeb.

Would you rather fight 100 duck-sized horses or 1 horse-sized duck?

I have thought a lot about this. One horse sized duck. As Fezzick noted in Princess Bride, fighting more than one man is tough.  Same goes for horses. Or ducks.

So, Senator Shelley Moore-Capito?

She is definitely the favorite. I think Dems will find a serious candidate -- maybe Carte Godwin or Natalie Tennant -- and run a real race.

But West VA has moved strongly toward GOP in the last 4 elections and Capito is a strong candidate. Her danger is whether she gets a serious challenge from her ideological right in the primary.

Could be a favorite when the NIT rolls around.

Is there a tournament where teams aren't allowed to score 50 points or more? If so, we would be unstoppable in that sort of format.

Christie, Rubio, or Ryan?

Top tier: Christie, Rubio, Ryan, Jindal and Jeb if he runs.

But I can't see Rubio and Jeb both running so one of them won't be in it.

Of that group, I think Christie and Rubio are the most naturally gifted as politicians.

We often get to know your latte and pastry preferences. We in Da Yoop want to know how you prefer your pasties. Rutabaga or non-rutabaga?

Non.

Where is Squirrel Chat? I already miss that

Dagger. This one hurts. Damn that squirrel and his powerful squirrel lobby.

If Chris Christie loses reelection this year, how does that effect his 2016 prospects? It seems as if his national profile among Republicans is already diminishing, even as its gone up here in NJ

I don't think it's likely he loses.  Cory Booker would have given Christie a real race but the Dem bench after Booker isn't all that strong.

Plus, Christie's numbers are incredibly good right now. They will come down some post-Sandy but he's in a really good spot at the moment.

Where's the venue? What's the Soundtrack? and What are your drinking?

Starbucks Tenleytown.

Skim mocha. (Have to watch my figure)

Paul Simon

I'm trying to imagine Chris Christie debating Hillary Clinton. Is this a delightful dream or a nightmare come true?

That would be an amazing race. 

I am not sure why but I am now leaning against Hillary running. I don't know why but just a gut feeling.

I think Christie, Rubio, Ryan and Jindal as well as Rand Paul are all definitely in for Republicans. Jeb on the fence.

Mr. Lew seems to be a pretty hard-nosed negotiator and has pretty much scared the GOP Congressmen. Yet it seems that all the pundits talk about is his signature of loops. Is this Janet Jackson over Iraq War in 2004 all over again?

The amount of focus on his signature IS somewhat amazing.

I heard you on Diane Rehm's show last hour. Hurry up and get online now!

BOOM.

If you polled interested Redskins fans, do they blame Mike Shananahan or the Groundskeepers more?

Shanny.

In the unlikely event that John Boehner ever decides to call it a day as Speaker of the House, who would be most likely to take over? Would they be more or less likely to push legislation through the House that has a chance of passing the Senate and being signed by the President?

Good q.

I think Cantor would obviously want it.  Paul Ryan would be a strong candidate but I think he is running for president. Maybe Kevin McCarthy who is currently the whip...

Chris, does he make it through?

I think he does because people like DiFi and Schumer will ultimately get behind him because they don't want to embarrass Obama.

But his one-on-one meetings with Senators and his confirmation hearings do actually matter. If he bombs in them, it could be lights out.

How good will the Virginia Governor's race be on a scale of 1-10?

11

He seems like a dark horse right now. He connects well with people. I could see him surprising in Iowa.

Agree...he is a charismatic guy who has a story to tell about his time in Baltimore.

Also worth remembering: O'Malley did advance work for Gary Hart in Iowa. So he knows the state and where to push the buttons.  Important and not to be underestimated.

Assuming the day you were married and the days your kids were born would come first, rank these moments in your life, starting with the happiest: a) The day your book was published. b) The day the CUA field hockey team played in its first NCAA Tournament. c) The day you got a mention - a whole footnote, all to yourself! - in a Mailbag. d) The day Starbucks debuted the Pumpkin Spice Latte.

Terrific question

In order of awesomeness

b

a

c

d

The Simmons mention was great. It's amazing how many people read his stuff. My inbox was inundated seconds after his column went up.

Size up a potential primary race between Lautenberg and Booker? What about a three-way race between Lautenberg, Booker, and Pallone? Can Booker thrive in a political fight or will he be revealed to have a glass jaw?

In a two way race, Booker wins barring some sort of BIG revelation (in a bad way) about him.

A three way race is more intriguing since the vote of people who want someone other than Lautenberg would be divided.

Is Mitt Romney irrelevant in Republican politics from going forward?

Well, I don't think he cares to be relevant. He has essentially disappeared from the national political stage since the election. And the party seems to have gladly moved on without him.

Does he have a clear field in the primary to re-election? Who has the tougher general election in 2014 -- Scott or Nikki Haley?

Well, someone may primary him but I think it's unlikely. One of the big reasons why Nikki Haley picked him was that he is like by everyone in the state GOP -- a rarity in that state.

And, Haley will have the far tougher general election fight.  I can't imagine Scott facing a real general election problem.

Rockefeller retirement announced today, what is your instant reaction? Who are the likely Democratic challengers of Capito? Gov. Tomblin? Rep. Rahall? Justice Robin Davis?

I don't see Tomblin doing it or the national party wanting him too. Maybe Rahall. I still think someone like Carte Godwin is a better choice.

Who has a higher profile this session?

I think Duckworth. Amazing personal story.

Is Lt. Gov Bolling irked enough at the Cooch to enter the race and likely throw it to Terry Mac?

I can't see it. He would be derided by Republicans for splitting the vote. I can't imagine he is happy about Cooch pushing him out (after McDonnell pushed him out four years ago) but he will likely just sit on his hands. I don;t think he is going to be an aggressive supporter of Cooch but running against him? Probably not.

Wouldn't Hillary Clinton be Obama's ideal nominee for a Supreme Court vacancy?

Oooh. Intriguing. Janet Napolitano would like to be on SCOTUS too.

If Biden and Hillary pass on '16, what odds would you give the rest? My ranking is probably Cuomo, Schweitzer, Patrick, O'Malley, Gillibrand. Agree/disagree?

Good q.

I think the top tier is Cuomo and Elizabeth Warren (if she runs)

Second tier: O'Malley, Gillibrand Schweitzer

I don't think Deval Patrick runs but if he does he is somewhere between first and second tier.

How excited are you to see The Rock at the Royal Rumble?

Finally....the Rock has COME BACK to the Royal Rumble.

Who's the most vulnerable Senator?

Tim Johnson?  Tough race no matter what but also running against popular former governor Mike Rounds.

What makes you think Christie can be competitive in a Republican presidential primary? Sure, he's an engaging politician, but most GOP primary voters don't take their cues from Morning Joe. Maybe he can win New Hampshire, but he'll get crushed in Iowa and South Carolina.

Maybe. But remember that Christie came to prominence nationally because the tea party types loved his tough talking approach.

And, who knows what the role of the tea party will be in 2016? As I wrote in my Worst Year in Washington piece, I think the tea party influence is starting to wane.

Does Rand Paul REALLY have chances of winning GOP nomination in 2016? I don't know why, but i don't see it..

Winning the nomination? Probably not. Being  a MAJOR factor in who does? Absolutely.

Rand has the following of his father with a lot more political sense.

How did I just discover - this week! - that the band Guided By Voices is the most amazing thing in rock music, and has been for decades? You cannot deny or filibuster this fact.

Underappreciated. They rule.

Hasn't the Bush brand been so tainted that it would be impossible for Jeb to have any success? And he would have the dual challenge of running against the Dems and the media.

Well, if Jeb runs in 2016 it will be 8 years post-W and there is no indication that W will re-emerge publicly between now and then.

And I think that makes it likely that the brand tarnishing will fade. People in American politics have a very short memory.

What is most likely to happen: Immigration reform or gun control. My money is on immigration reform, especially with the numbers of the GOP being poor within the Latino community

Depends on how you define either.

I think some sort of gun legislation will get passed but it's not going to be comprehensive.

I think Republicans have much more incentive to cooperate on immigration because they have to find a way passed the issue.

If Hillary doesn't run, who will?

Almost everyone.

I think if Hillary is out, it will be an incredibly wide open race along the lines of 2008 or 1988.

Do you think Mr. Crawley will take the inheritance?

I mean, he has to doesn't he? Lady Mary is very persuasive.

Related note: Mrs Fix and I agree that Shirley MacLaine's character was uninspiring in episode 1. I wanted more.

Watched it last night - should be better than it is...

The previews were SO unfunny that I didn't.  Should I?

You really think Elizabeth Warren is top tier for 2016 presidential candidates? She is pretty new to the scene (high-profile Senate race notwithstanding), and she is very liberal, which seems likely to doom her with the general electorate.

Ok.

Here's my Warren argument

1. She is a woman

2. She can raise money

3. She is liberal

4. Base Dems LOVE her

5. She made her name holding big business accountable.

That's a pretty good start in a Dem presidential primary that doesn't include Hillary Clinton.

Who does The Cillizza like this weekend in the NFL? My bookie awaits the selection

49ers

Broncos

Pats

Seahawks

You said the last 4 elections in WVa have moved strongly towards the GOP. I assume you're not including the 2012 Senate, 2012 Gubernatorial , 2011 Special Gubernatorial, or the 2010 Senate Special. And if so, please define "strong."

Presidential level.

And Joe Manchin is an incredibly popular figure in the state so him winning a federal race is somewhat anomalous.

I am interested to see if someone not named "Manchin" can win a federal statewide race in the state.

Do the Democrats hope they just hold on to the Senate in 2014, then gear up to pick up seats in IL, WI, PA, etc in 2016?

If they hold the Senate in 2014, it will be a minor miracle given the seats they have to defend. Whether they hold it or lose it, 2016 will be a much better cycle for Democrats.

Hope everyone in The Fix household (and entourage) has had one. The flu is the pits, believe me.

We have.  Thankfully.  Scary stuff.

Your guess - would she take the chance of getting nominated to the SC over another run at the presidency in 2016? My guess is that she would, especially since she's 65 now.

Oh I think she would.

Not sure Obama would nominate someone that old though..

Isn't that perilously close to the date of the next fiscal cliff eruption?

Yes.

How do you rank these shows in terms of anticipation/awesomeness? Game of Thrones, Downton Abbey, Arrested Development, Friday Night Lights, Breaking Bad, The Walking Dead?

This is a pure ranking of influence on Fix Life.

1. FNL

2. Arrested Development

3. GOT

4. Downrton Abbery

5. Breaking Bad. "Come on, Mr. White!"

6. Walking  Dead (I have never seen.)

I remember Bob Dole getting some grief for crying at his funeral. Now we get John Boehner who cries over anything. Would Tricky Dick have slapped the Speaker silly in his day?

Just because you mentioned Nixon, I am taking this chance to link to my 8 fav Nixon photos here: Link

We were wanting more as well. At the very least, we wanted to see a reception with Shirley and Maggie Smith get drunk and try to dance!

It was weak. Oh she's the American who is disdainful of the British sense of history! Just a cardboard cutout. I expect more from the show.

This season will rock your world. Far and away the best.

SO PSYCHED.

I love Paul Simon. National icon.

Watch this perfomance at the 10 year anniversary of 9/11. So moving. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3np0DMxXKzM

Okay, but all 5 of those reasons are why lots of right-wingers hate, hate, hate Warren. They will go after her with a venom that will make the 2008 attacks on Hillary Clinton seem quaint in comparison.

But we are talking about winning a D primary right now. Not the general where, yes, she would have troubles.

When something isn't as funny as it should be, that would be a no. And it pains me because there's potential there but the bozo son character was by far the one with the least potential

Noted.

Remember that West Virginia is the state where something like 44% of Democratic voters voted for an unknown convicted felon in the 2012 Presidential primary against Obama. The Democratic party's days are numbered in WV.

Thank you. Good point.

Lisa de Moraes, the Post's TV guru, alleges that it is supposed to improve by episode 4. Will anyone be willing to stick around that long? (And I get Bill Pullman and Bill Paxton mixed up anyway.)

Not sure I can hang around that long. We'll always have "Veep".

Ok. folks. My computer is running out of power. Got to run. Have a great weekend and be excellent to each other.

 

Chris

In This Chat
Chris Cillizza
Chris Cillizza is the managing editor of PostPolitics and he writes "The Fix," a politics blog for The Washington Post. He also covers the White House for the newspaper and website. Chris has appeared as a guest on NBC, CBS, ABC, MSNBC, Fox News Channel and CNN to talk politics. He lives in Virginia with his wife and sons.
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