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January 4, 2013

11:06
A.M.

The Fix Live

Total Responses: 67

About the hosts

About the host

Host: Chris Cillizza

Chris Cillizza

Chris Cillizza is the managing editor of PostPolitics and he writes "The Fix," a politics blog for The Washington Post. He also covers the White House for the newspaper and website. Chris has appeared as a guest on NBC, CBS, ABC, MSNBC, Fox News Channel and CNN to talk politics. He lives in Virginia with his wife and sons.

About the topic

The Fix's Chris Cillizza discussed the latest in political news.

Follow @TheFix on Twitter.
Q.

Chris Cillizza :

Good morning everyone.  I am sipping a cinnamon dolce latte and wearing jeans.  Life is good.

Let's do this thing.

Q.

New Republicans in Congress

Some of the newly-elected republicans are saying that they didn't come to Washington to get along with their colleagues in Congress. I think the new Congress will be just as terrible as the old Congress. They just want to be obstructionists and are already dug-in with their ideas (Sen. Cruz, I'm talking about you!). What are your expectations for these newbies?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Well, I think you combine the fact that huge majorites of these Members -- on both the R and D side -- got elected with 55% of the vote or higher with the tremendously difficult problems Congress is going to be called on to solve and you start to sense things are going to get worse before they get better.

Read this too: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2013/01/03/5-reasons-why-being-speaker-of-the-house-aint-what-it-used-to-be/

– January 04, 2013 11:06 AM
Q.

Power Ranking

Your ranking of Boehner, Cantor, and McConnell in terms of power lost or gained following the fiscal cliff actions?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

From gained to lost

McConnell

Cantor 

Boehner

I mean, Cantor didn't do all that much while Boehner clearly took a hit. McConnell emerged as the guy who knows how to make deals which, I think, is still a good thing in this political world.

– January 04, 2013 11:07 AM
Q.

Redskins/Seahawks

Are you going to the Redskins/Seahawks game on Sunday?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

You have mistaken me for a Washington power player.

– January 04, 2013 11:08 AM
Q.

New Year's

How was your "Most hated holiday bar none?"
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Good. Early dinner with friends and then ignoring the fact it was New Years for the rest of the time.

Worst holidays

1. New Years

2. St. Paddy's day (and I am half irish)

3. Halloween pre-kids

– January 04, 2013 11:09 AM
Q.

Paul Ryan's Role

Given his 'yes' vote on the fiscal cliff bill, is Ryan more likely to become a practical deal-maker or to remain an ideological leader? Which is better if he wants to run in 2016?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

His vote + his statement explaining the vote made clear that he is latching himself to the problem-solver messaging going forward.

It's an interesting contrast to Marco Rubio who voted "no" on the cliff compromise.

– January 04, 2013 11:10 AM
Q.

Okay, so I lost the $20 bet

But I went double-or-nothing on Boehner finishing his term as Speaker (I took the under). Well, we settled on a case of Bell's Two-Hearted either way (much better than cash), but we'd like a professional opinion on our respective chances.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

I think he finishes his term. I also think -- it's a total guess -- that this is his last term in Congress.

– January 04, 2013 11:10 AM
Q.

Right of far right?

Hi Chris, Is Marco Rubio's vote against the Senate "cliff" bill an early sign that for 2016 the GOP presidential primary race will be a race to the far right? Do the Republicans feel they lost the last election because Mitt was too moderate?

A.
Chris Cillizza :

Primaries in both parties do tend to be a race to please the base...

That said, Republicans have nominated John McCain, Mitt Romney and George W. Bush in the last three contested primaries. None of them was the most conservative candidate in the field.

– January 04, 2013 11:12 AM
Q.

Protest Votes

True or false: As we get more polarized, we should see more protest votes because they help incumbents protect vs. their flanks, and primaries become determinative without toss-up general elections.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

True.  And bad for democracy.

– January 04, 2013 11:12 AM
Q.

Montgomery Village, MD

Chris Will Boehner now retire the 'Worst Week in Washington " trophy or would he had to have lost the speakership for that to happen ?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Well, Boehner isn't even close to the Gehrig-like streak put together by Anthony Weiner back in 2011 when he won Worst Week 4 times straight.

– January 04, 2013 11:14 AM
Q.

No one to replace the speaker

why wasn't Cantor a viable option? Or Ryan?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

There just isn't the desire to overthrow Boehner. They may disagree with some of his legislative choices but most members of the GOP majority still like him and respect him. And, aside from Paul Ryan, I am not sure anyone -- including Cantor -- could knock off Boehner at this point.

– January 04, 2013 11:15 AM
Q.

Future

What is the future for GOPers like Labrador and Amash?

A.
Chris Cillizza :

Sort of what they are doing now.  They will be conservative agitators who don't have all that much power in the House but could have some real power out of it.

– January 04, 2013 11:17 AM
Q.

Filibuster Reform

How far will Reid go with filibuster reform?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Not very far.

– January 04, 2013 11:17 AM
Q.

Gun control

How realistic is it that Biden will make headway on gun control with this Congress?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Depends how you define headway. Yes, I think we will have some sort of gun measure -- maybe banning large ammo clips -- make it through Congress. I am much more skeptical that Biden or anyone else can get the assault weapons ban through Congress -- but I have been wrong many times before.

– January 04, 2013 11:18 AM
Q.

Sensing a theme on your worst holidays list

Do you have something against those particular holidays that people view as a reason to go out and drink excessively, then engage in bad behavior as a result? :-)
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Confirmed.

– January 04, 2013 11:18 AM
Q.

Biden and Clinton

How much good did he do himself for 2016 with his work with McConnell for creating appendix #1 of the fiscal cliff negotiations saga? Also, how much will Hillary's recent health scare affect her chances in 2016?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Biden: I think he helped himself among insiders by proving he was a real player in the negotiations and knew how to make the deal happen. I don't think the average person or even the average primary voter noticed all that much.

Hillary: I think her health will now be a front and center issue for her if she decides to run now.  I wrote about it here: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2013/01/02/the-political-reality-of-hillary-clintons-health/

– January 04, 2013 11:21 AM
Q.

Massachusetts Senate

How does Barney Frank wanting the interim appointment for the seat being vacated by Senator Kerry affect Ed Markey's chances? It is common knowledge here that Barney is none too happy with Markey for how the redistricting process played out.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

I don't think it affects it much. 

Being the interim Senator who pedges not to seek the full term means Frank wants this as a sort of career-capper not as a strategic, political move.

Markey is still the VERY likely Dem nominee in the special.

– January 04, 2013 11:21 AM
Q.

Why the Yes and No votes?

Hi Chris, Happy New Year! I know the holidays are both fun and stressful with little ones, hope yours was good. Two questions: 1/Do you think the Republicans in the House voted yes b/c they knew the public was so fed up with the whole cliff thing or to cozy up to the leadership? 2/Why did some Democratic senators vote no?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

1) Most of them voted "yes" because they knew they would get blamed if the country went off the liff

2) Those Dem Senators who voted no did so because a) they wanted taxes raised on a broader swath of people or b) they wanted a deal that did more to resolve the long term financial problems of the country.

– January 04, 2013 11:22 AM
Q.

Speaker

Bachmann finally voted for Boehner, is not that surprising?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

I think she probably decided that she had made her point by not voting for him the first time around and didn't want to see it go to a second ballot.

It was definitely a bit of pragmatism from Bachmann.

– January 04, 2013 11:24 AM
Q.

No longer

Are we going to miss Ron Paul in the House? Who will replace him?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Rand Paul in the Senate.

– January 04, 2013 11:24 AM
Q.

You are exactly right about those holidays

those bring out the amateurs, the people who give drunkenness a bad name. I'm a professional drinker so I know these things.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Glad to have a professional in the chat.

– January 04, 2013 11:24 AM
Q.

Paul Ryan

What is the general national consensus on how Paul Ryan came out of the presidential race. Was it a help, hurt, or push?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Push to a positive.

He got FAR better known among Republicans (and everyone else) nationwide, which will help him. Also, being the last VP nominee gives you immediate entre into the next presidential race.

– January 04, 2013 11:26 AM
Q.

polarization

Congressional dysfunction is being blamed on the polarization of the electorate. But I haven't seen analysis of why we are becoming more polarized or why Dems are tending to live among Dems and Repubs among Repubs. Would you like to take a stab at these questions?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Sure. 

I wrote about this in my book "Gospel According to the Fix". (Available for purchase here: http://www.amazon.com/Gospel-According-Fix-Insiders-Politics/dp/0307987094)

The simplest answer is that gerrymandered congressional districts driven by partisan line drawers has created a large number of House districts where the only electoral worry for the incumbent is in a primary election.

That means that being as conservative or as liberal as possible is the best possible way to get reelected. And that compromise is not prized or valued.

– January 04, 2013 11:28 AM
Q.

Seahawks vs. Redskins....

Redskin Nation, prepare to feel the wrath of Russell Wilson...
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Russell Hustle-And-Bustle-Man-Muscle Wilson.

– January 04, 2013 11:28 AM
Q.

Joe Biden

After watching Biden's performance at the mock swearing in yesterday, it's apparent if the Presidency thing does not work out in 16' car sales might be a calling.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

That was political gold. It's gold, Jerry!

– January 04, 2013 11:28 AM
Q.

Clinton Health

Is that why she walked out of the hospital in full view of cameras?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Yup.

– January 04, 2013 11:29 AM
Q.

2016

Don't you think it's inevitable that the Democratic nominee will come from the governor's mansions? Other than Gillibrand and Klobuchar, there aren't that many contenders among Democratic Senators, but among Governors, there's Cuomo, O'Malley, Schweitzer, Hickenlooper, and Markel.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Agree.

Or a former Senator like, say, Hillary Clinton.

– January 04, 2013 11:29 AM
Q.

None of them was the most conservative candidate in the field

No, but they were (at least perceived) to be the most electable. Would you agree that, especially in the case of McCain & Romney, they were damaged goods due to the pull to the far right?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Yup.  Bush was able to avoid getting pulled too far right.

– January 04, 2013 11:30 AM
Q.

worst holidays

Arbor Day not on the list. Really?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Who hates Arbor Day?  That's like hating Flag Day.

Also: Is Groundhog Day a real holiday or not? Cause I like it a lot -- if only because of Bill Murray in "Groudhog Day".

– January 04, 2013 11:31 AM
Q.

Seahawks

The wiki tells me that a seahawk is a nickname for an osprey, or fish eagle. I will be rooting against the fish eagles on Sunday.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

I love me some RGIII. Who doesn't? I hear Sal Palantonio say yesterday on Kornheiser's show that RGIII could lead men into (real) battle. That's pretty high praise.

– January 04, 2013 11:32 AM
Q.

Pushed into the spotlight

For both the Ds and the Rs, who are the three new faces that you anticipate being "guided" to facetime status for the party in the next three years? Or, which new members are viewed by their party as future gamechangers?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Republicans

1. Tim Scott

2. Rubio

3. Ted Cruz

Democrats

1. Tammy Baldwin

2. Heidi Heitkamp

3. Michael Bennet

– January 04, 2013 11:33 AM
Q.

Senator Tim Kaine

It dawned on me yesterday as I read coverage of Tim Kaine's swearing-in: this is a guy that was chairman of the DNC, and he is building 100% of his goals in the US Senate on working across party lines and compromising. How do you think this transformation happened so seamlessly? And do you think he has ambitions beyond the Senate?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

A very good question. I think he is a little bit underrated as a politician actually.

Not sure if he has ambitions that end in the White House but I think it's a safe bet to assume anyone who has been governor and then Senator (as well as DNC Chair) is politically ambitious.

– January 04, 2013 11:34 AM
Q.

Major City Mayors.....

Antonio Villaraigosa? Where does he go after he's done? What's the history of big city mayors making it to the national stage?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

I thought the DNC Chairmanship but Debbie Wasserman Schultz is coming back for a second term.

Dare I say a potential presidential run? He would be the most prominent Hispanic in the field...Or maybe governor if Jerry Brown decides not to run for a second term.

– January 04, 2013 11:36 AM
Q.

Corker

Is he a Senate lifer who essentially becomes the Kennedy vote of the Republican caucus?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

I don't think of Corker as a lifer...he just got re-elected though so he will be there for at least 6 more years. Remember that he started off as an executive -- mayor of Chattanooga -- so I can't imagine the legislative atmosphere of the Senate is all that appealing...

– January 04, 2013 11:37 AM
Q.

Fix III

Please immediately take him to Senate floor so Biden can swear him in.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

That would rule.

Also, if you missed Biden's performance yesterday, watch this: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2013/01/04/swearing-in-day-joe-bidens-greatest-hits/

– January 04, 2013 11:38 AM
Q.

What about the Joe Biden?

Glad to see that Obama has his LBJ at work in the Senate, especially with the ineffectual Harry Reid. Does Obama have someone in the House who can carry water for the administration?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

I think Chris Van Hollen, who is a mighty impressive pol, is becoming that person.

– January 04, 2013 11:39 AM
Q.

2012 Republican ticket

Has any Presidential nominee ever faded from public view quite as quickly and thoroughly as Mitt Romney? Re Paul Ryan, not sure his public showing was entirely positive. My father (age 93) and son (age 32) both regard Ryan as evil incarnate (and they don't agree on a lot). His politics may be pleasing to some segments, but he also was personally off-putting to a fair number of people.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Agree.

Read this -- my writeup on Romney's bad year: http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2012-12-28/opinions/36071922_1_mitt-romney-presidential-election-stupid-party

– January 04, 2013 11:40 AM
Q.

Why isn't Harry Reid one of your "losers"

I was surprised that you never listed Harry Reid as one your weekly or fiscal clliff losers. It seemed to me that he got sidelined by Boehner in favor of Biden in almost an insulting manner. By the end of the negotiations, he seemed almost inconsequential to what was going on. Your thoughts?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

I thought about it for a long time.  And, you may be right. 

– January 04, 2013 11:40 AM
Q.

Groudhog Day

Groundhog Day is to holidays what auto racing is to sports.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

HMMM.... I am not sure if this answers my question.

– January 04, 2013 11:41 AM
Q.

San Francisco

Will we see ever Pelosi's district represented by a republican?? She'll last forever xD
A.
Chris Cillizza :

No. Never. When she leaves, there will be a giant Dem primary to replace her. And whoever wins that primary will hold the seat for as long as he/she wants to.

– January 04, 2013 11:41 AM
Q.

Leading real men into battle

I prefer The Fix who leads us to the good coffee.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

I can lead real men into Spotify playlists like no other. Take that Bob Griffin.

– January 04, 2013 11:42 AM
Q.

Debt Ceiling

When the president says he will not nogotiate around the debt ceiling what do think he means?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

That he won't negotiate on the debt ceiling.

I also think he is staking out some territory for the debate to come. I will be fascinated to see if he can stand his ground on that pledge.

– January 04, 2013 11:42 AM
Q.

Iowa

We could be the poster child for electoral dysfunction. Our two senators of different parties both voted against the fiscal cliff bill for exactly opposite reasons. This does not give me hope for compromise down the road in March.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

But Des Moines is a wildly underrated town...

– January 04, 2013 11:43 AM
Q.

RGIII

RGIII is the new Chuck Norris who was the new Bill Bradsky.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Intriguing.

– January 04, 2013 11:44 AM
Q.

re: Tim Kaine

I agree that it's not certain how ambitious he is, but all the 2008 books say that he was Obama's 2nd choice for V.P. He could be a good balance if a Democratic Governor is at the top of the ticket.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Agree.

– January 04, 2013 11:45 AM
Q.

Bob Mcdonnell

It seemed that if Romney won there is a good chance the VA governor would have been the Attorney General. Now that that is not possible, and with just a year left in office, what is next?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

No idea. Run for Senate?  Probably not.  Bide his time to see what else opens up? I guess. No good options for McDonnell thanks to the ridiculous and outdated one-term limit on governors in Virginia.

– January 04, 2013 11:45 AM
Q.

polarization again

So, polarization is not real, just an artifact of gerrymandering? The hateful comments on Washington Post articles and elsewhere on line sure make us look polarized!
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Oh, it's very real. I just think, in Congress at least, the way the lines are drawn determines the kind of people who get elected.

– January 04, 2013 11:46 AM
Q.

Markey's Residency = Shaking Hands Outside Fenway?

Do you think this week's dust up over Ed Markey's residency will be 'why would I shake hands outside of Fenway' (the grassroots disconnect which took down Martha Coakley) or more the 'Native American' side-issue which Warren survived?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Read our piece on this: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2013/01/03/why-ed-markeys-residency-could-be-an-issue-in-bid-to-replace-kerry/

– January 04, 2013 11:46 AM
Q.

Re: Also, being the last VP nominee gives you immediate entre into the next presidential race

How did that work out for Sarah Palin?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

She is the exception, not the rule.

And I think comparing Paul Ryan to Sarah Palin does him a tremendous disservice.

– January 04, 2013 11:47 AM
Q.

Yes on Groundhog Day

That's the halfway point between the winter solstice (the midpoint of winter on any rational calendar) and the vernal equinox, which makes it the actual start of Spring. It was celebrated by the Celts as Imbolc, so not only can you drink, but you can run around the fire naked.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

I am for any holiday that allows that.

– January 04, 2013 11:47 AM
Q.

2013

Top 5 off year races you will be watching?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

I wrote a post on it!

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/11/30/the-5-best-races-of-2013/

– January 04, 2013 11:49 AM
Q.

Ted Cruz

What about Ted Cruz? I think he would be able, likely, to be Governor of Texas if he wants, or maybe climb higher..
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Am interested to see what he does next. Saw him on CNN yesterday. He is definitely a comer.

– January 04, 2013 11:49 AM
Q.

Senate

It wil be fun to follow Senate foreign relations committee now with McCain, Rand Paul, Rubio..
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Yes it will.

– January 04, 2013 11:50 AM
Q.

Biden and the Beltway

Too many reporters bought into the conservative argument that Biden was a joke. He cleaned Paul Ryan's clock. I think non-politicos who aren't unpersuadable Republicans find Biden authentic. Still that big disconnect in DC?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Interesting. Well, if he runs for president in 2016, your theory will be put to the test.

– January 04, 2013 11:51 AM
Q.

2016

Who is the most likely woman to run for president if Hillary doesn't run - Klobuchar, Warren or Gillibrand?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

HMMM.

Tough. I think Gillibrand. But I could definitely make the case for Warren (and have before) as well as Klobuchar.

– January 04, 2013 11:52 AM
Q.

Chris Christie

Christie approval now somewhere north of "apple pie," and rapidly closing in on "Mom." Okay, he's destined to come down a few notches. But if it's only a few, who challenges him for nomination? (Of course this assumes his party is interested in actually WINNING the presidency.)
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Rubio, Jindal and maybe Jeb Bush. That's the 2016 top tier along with Christie.

But, I agree, Christie has an authentic-ness that is uncommon in modern American politics.

– January 04, 2013 11:53 AM
Q.

Paul Ryan's 2012 experience

Come on, being the losing VP candidate does little to no good for the next election. Mondale, Lieberman, Edwards, Palin immediately come to mind. Ryan will not be president in 2016. You can bank on it.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Didn't say he would be president. Said he would have a natural progression to RUN for president, which, by the by, all of the people you mentioned with the exception of Palin did.

– January 04, 2013 11:53 AM
Q.

John Boehner

Did John Boehner repeat his Worst Week in Washington this week with the Sandy Storm vote being delayed and his performance in vote on New Years Day?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Yes.

Here's the writeup: http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/who-had-the-worst-week-in-washington-house-speaker-john-a-boehner/2013/01/03/a12cab10-55f1-11e2-8b9e-dd8773594efc_story.html

– January 04, 2013 11:54 AM
Q.

PA Governor race

As unpopular as Tom Corbett is at this time, the Democratic bench in the state is pretty thin. Do you see Bob Casey Jr. entering the Gov race? That seemed to be the job he wanted all along.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

I thought so...until he came out in favor of the assault weapons ban.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/12/20/sen-bob-casey-now-supports-assault-weapons-ban/

– January 04, 2013 11:55 AM
Q.

No true is it?

Hi Chris, "but I have been wrong many times before" - that was some kind of typo wasn't it?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Yes. I think that was the caffeine talking.

– January 04, 2013 11:55 AM
Q.

South Dakota '14 Senate race

Will there be a Rounds v. Noem primary and who wins?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

I don't think so. I think Rounds keeps out all other ambitious Republicans.

– January 04, 2013 11:56 AM
Q.

Xmas Gift

Is too late to get Fix Aaron a Xmas gift?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Never. Suggested gift: 100 copies of "Gospel According to the Fix."

– January 04, 2013 11:56 AM
Q.

Re: BIDEN AND THE BELTWAY

He cleaned Ryan's clock? He interrupted all debate and looked like a baffoon. He tried to use that "your no Jack Kennedy line" and Ryan flung it off like a fly. Biden is a joke.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

The answer! Also, buffoon.

– January 04, 2013 11:56 AM
Q.

Candlemas

Groundhog Day is celebrated on Candlemas, which used to be a Holy Day of Obligation.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Is Candlemas anything like Festivus?

– January 04, 2013 11:57 AM
Q.

Va Gov. one term rule

I agree with you that it is stupid but if the Cooch ends up being my gov. I will fall on my knees daily and thank God for it.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

The VA Gov race is already the runaway winner of best nicknames race.

Cooch vs The Macker.

Doesn't get any better than that.

– January 04, 2013 11:57 AM
Q.

Andrew Luck v. RGIII

Luck is superior. RGIII is nothing more than a product of the hyped up Beltway media.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Luck is awesome.

Not sure RGIII is overrated though. Dude is legit.

– January 04, 2013 11:58 AM
Q.

Groundhog Day

Groundhogs are also known as whistle pigs, and we celebrate it in Fairyland by whistling.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

I was not aware of that.

– January 04, 2013 11:58 AM
Q.

Paul Ryan...

... is smarter than Sarah Palin, but that's roughly equivalent to saying he's taller than Danny DeVito.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

That's Frank Reynolds to you.

– January 04, 2013 11:59 AM
Q.

Chris Cillizza :

And that's all folks!

Thanks for spending your Friday morning with me. Remember I do this every Friday at 11 am so spread the word. 

See you next week. Until then, be excellent to each other.

Chris

Q.

 

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