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June 29, 2012

11:04
A.M.

The Fix Live

Total Responses: 39

About the hosts

About the host

Host: Chris Cillizza

Chris Cillizza

Chris Cillizza is the managing editor of PostPolitics and he writes "The Fix," a politics blog for The Washington Post. He also covers the White House for the newspaper and website. Chris has appeared as a guest on NBC, CBS, ABC, MSNBC, Fox News Channel and CNN to talk politics. He lives in Virginia with his wife and son.

About the topic

The Fix's Chris Cillizza discussed the latest political news.

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Q.

Chris Cillizza :

Good morning everyone! Sorry for missing last week's chat -- I has a wisdom tooth out.  Not fun. Trust me I would rather have been chatting with you.

Kind of a busy week in American politics.  So let's get to it.

Q.

A Skeptic Speaks

A few months ago, I thought Democrats were out of their minds to believe that Obama had the race wrapped up. Now, I think Republicans are out of their minds to believe that Romney has the race wrapped up. This still looks like a very close race to me.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Yes.  The truth is that NOTHING seems to move the numbers on the presidential election. NOTHING.

The vast majority of people have made up their minds on the race already. There are somewhere between 7-12 percent of undecided voters still out there but no one seems to know what will move their votes.

It's a very odd election. Lots of big things are happening but they don't seem to effect the underlying dynamics of the race.

– June 29, 2012 11:11 AM
Q.

9 people?

I guess there's no one else to put on the Veep list when you include the governor of Puerto Rico. That's not just thinking outside of the box but on a completely different project.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

I think the top 5 are people who could genuinely be picked.  Beyond that I think it's people who the Romney folks want mentioned for a variety of reasons and/or people who want their own names mentioned for a variety of reasons.

Speaking of the Veepstakes, here's my last ranking:  Link

– June 29, 2012 11:12 AM
Q.

Pat Toomey

I was interested to see Pat Toomey did not make your top 10 VP list. Given his conservative credentials and position as a senator from Pennsylvania, I would have thought he'd get more consideration. Any particular reason for the omission?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Not really. I have pegged him as a potential darkhorse pick. I think it's still unlikely -- hence "darkhorse" -- but his resume on fiscal conservatism and the fact that he is from a swing state (or a potential swing state) is intriguing...

– June 29, 2012 11:13 AM
Q.

NPR

Chris, I heard you on NPR last night discussing the Eric Holder issue. Just want to ask how you can stay so in the middle when the partisans on both sides are going at it.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Well, I don't have a dog in the fight -- as hard as that is for some people to believe.

I am fascinating by the political strategy, how the two parties and their candidates deal with the ever changing political landscape. That's what I care about and coming at things from that perspective makes it a lot easier not to take sides.

– June 29, 2012 11:14 AM
Q.

Euro 2012

Powerfully rank these teams' chances to win: Portugal, Germany, Spain, England, Italy, France. (Surprise me, Greece.) I still like Germany.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Um....

Germany lost yesterday to Italy.  The final -- Italy vs Spain -- is Sunday.

So, I like Italy and Spain. Spain will probably win but I am rooting for Italy. They are, after all, my people.

– June 29, 2012 11:15 AM
Q.

Democratic Fundraising

Why are large Democratic donors so skittish about giving to Super PACs? Complacency? Discomfort with the post-Citizens United universe? Disappointment with Obama? Are they starting to get the message that Obama will probably be outspent on the airwaves this year?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

I think major D donors, for the most part, believe there is too much money in politics and don't want to exacerbate the problem.

They also tend to want to give to good government groups and policy-oriented efforts as opposed to things like super PACs that are purely political.

– June 29, 2012 11:16 AM
Q.

Bus bullying

I go back and forth--about whether I'm surprised. Teens are mean. They are petty about immutable traits. Did people not know this?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Bullying sucks -- no matter how old or young you are.

– June 29, 2012 11:17 AM
Q.

Florida

Connie Mack IV has run a pretty bad campaign so far, but polling shows he's still close to Bill Nelson. Does that indicate an unhappiness with Nelson (and maybe Democrats generally), or do voters think they're voting for Connie Mack's dad, Connie Mack III?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

A little of both.

Nelson has never been super popular with Florida voters. He's been somewhat lucky -- remember that in 2006 Republicans inexplicably nominated Katherine Harris and Nelson crushed her.

To be clear, Mack has not done much right in the campaign to date. But, he does have a golden last name in Florida politics which means he is going to win the primary and will give Nelson a run for his money in the general.

– June 29, 2012 11:19 AM
Q.

Claire McCaskill

Of her three primary opponents, who would Claire McCaskill most like to face? Who would she least like to face?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

I think sd like to face Todd Akin because he's a sitting member of Congress, which isn't a good thing is this environment.

Brunner has a good outsider profile and personal money, which could be challenging for McCaskill. At the same time, he is a first time candidate which comes with its own problems.

– June 29, 2012 11:21 AM
Q.

Issa big mistake or issa a big opportunity?

Do you think that Democrats will be able to convert Darrell Issa's contempt citation against Holder as proof Republicans still want to play political games?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

I think the vast majority of the country -- outside of the 2 party bases -- either doesn't know or doesn't care about the issue.

That makes it hard to score political points -- either way.

– June 29, 2012 11:22 AM
Q.

Worst Week in Washington?

So, is it Eric Holder or every UVa grad in DC?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

We went with Antonin Scalia. (Holder won the last 2 "Worst Weeks".)

LINK.

– June 29, 2012 11:25 AM
Q.

Bloomberg poll

I saw with interest a few days ago the Bloomberg poll that had Obama up by 13. I doubt that anyone other than the pollster who did the poll believes it (I don't believe it), but most polls show the election as being close, which I tend to believe. But all these polls say they have a margin of error of about 3 percent. How can they all have a margin of error of 3 percent and yet be so far apart. I'd also note that Rasmussen often seems to be about 3 or 4 points more Republican than anyone else. Any comments? Are there polls we should just ignore?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Ann Selzer, who conducts the Bloomberg poll, is a very good (and proven) pollster. We did, however, write a fair amount about what might have made that poll and outlier.

Here's what we wrote:  Link

And here's what Ann wrote on the poll: Link

– June 29, 2012 11:27 AM
Q.

Distraction

How does the Romney campaign like the national GOP sucking the air out the room with Fast and the Furious? The only advantage Romney has is on handling of the economy. He's better off with Congress doing nothing, which isn't hard, than with his party doing something that resonates with just his base and shows Republicans not fixing the economy.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Assuming that most people are following "Fast and Furious" closely seems like a mistake to me.

– June 29, 2012 11:27 AM
Q.

Pick a Lean State

Chris, we all know the toss up states because that's where all of the campaign action is. If you had to guess, which lean state would not surprise you if it flip. Not in a so called wave election, but within the current dynamics, is there state that most consider to be slightly leaning towards Mr. Romney that could unexpectedly go blue and vice versa?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

For Romney: PA

For Obama: AZ

I think PA is more likely to for Republicans than Arizona is to go for Democrats though...

– June 29, 2012 11:28 AM
Q.

Change

Have The Mix Live. Cocktail chat!
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Good idea. Particularly at the end of this week. I think we could all use a cold one.

– June 29, 2012 11:29 AM
Q.

Texas

How soon do you think the Dems can win Texas in a Presidential elections? The big cities are already blue and the demograhics are changing. Thank you.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

2020.

– June 29, 2012 11:29 AM
Q.

Springsteen & Christie

Have you read Jeff Goldberg's piece in The Atlantic about Bruce Springsteen and Chris Christie?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

This piece:  Link

Not yet. But I hear good things. It's on the reading list.

– June 29, 2012 11:30 AM
Q.

2016

More likely presidential candidate in 2016 -- Cory Booker or Rahm Emanuel?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Neither. But Rahm.

– June 29, 2012 11:31 AM
Q.

Jon Huntsman

True/False: Jon Huntsman has no future in Republican electoral politics.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

True.

Huntsman has as must chance of re-emerging in GOP politics as the Wizards second pick in the NBA Draft (Not Bradley Beal) has of being a star  -- ever.

– June 29, 2012 11:32 AM
Q.

Chris Christie

If Cory Booker doesn't run for governor in 2013 against Chris Christie, which seems more likely, what Democrat steps up?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

GREAT question.

Frank Pallone?

Menendez?

Rob Andrews?

– June 29, 2012 11:32 AM
Q.

North Dakota

Does the polling we're seeing in the North Dakota Senate race just reflect the fact that many voters haven't engaged and the Republican tilt of the state will reassert itself as we get closer to the election? Or is Rick Berg just not very popular?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Little of both.

I still think that North Dakota race leans toward Republicans because the top of the ballot drag on Heitkamp is going to be tough.

– June 29, 2012 11:34 AM
Q.

Senate

True/False: The North Dakota race will be more competitive than the Missouri race?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

False.

I think McCaskill is a slight underdog but I think he wins before Heitkamp does.

– June 29, 2012 11:35 AM
Q.

Comtempt of, by, and for congress

OK fix, did Boehner schedule the Holder contempt vote yesterday so that it would be buried by the Health Care ruling coverage? Or issa no truth to that rumor?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

I have no reporting that can prove anything conclusive.  That said, there are a total of ZERO coincidences in politics.

– June 29, 2012 11:36 AM
Q.

Euro 2012

How excited are you that we have someone crazy like Balotelli to counter Spain's snorefest? And is there a more attractive European crowd than Spain-Italy?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

I am thrilled about Super/Crazy mario being in the mix. But I feel like Spain is (again) going to take the air out of the ball, dominate possession and win 1-0.

– June 29, 2012 11:37 AM
Q.

Big East

Pitts and Syracuse are leaving the conference. If you are the conference commissioner, what are your plans?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Are Pitt and Syracuse still accredited institutions of higher learning?

– June 29, 2012 11:38 AM
Q.

political web sites

Are you a fan of Political Wire? Fivethirtyeight? RealClearPolitics?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Love them all.

Also really like what Buzzfeed is doing in covering the campaigns. And read Molly Ball at the Atlantic. She is good. And Ashley Parker at NYT. And you need to read everything Dan Balz writes about the campaign. It's necessary.

– June 29, 2012 11:39 AM
Q.

Romney

Does the Romney money raised in 1 day a big deal?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Not really. It gives them a way to push back against the idea that this was a big loss for them though.

– June 29, 2012 11:40 AM
Q.

Lumineers

They were very fun at Wolf Trap last night, FYI. Brandi Carlile was amazing.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

I freaking love them. I am bummed I missed it.  Set list? Email me at chris.cillizza@wpost.com

– June 29, 2012 11:40 AM
Q.

Elections

Hi, do you think Mitt Romney has already gained the independent vote, and must "only" be focused in latin and black votes? Thanks.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Um, no.

– June 29, 2012 11:40 AM
Q.

Holder

Was the contempt action any more than political Kabuki in terms of concrete impact on life as we know it?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Here's my take: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/on-fast-and-furious-vote-congress-affirms-all-the-bad-things-people-already-think-of-them/2012/06/28/gJQAuGXs9V_blog.html

– June 29, 2012 11:44 AM
Q.

Wakeup call

The SCOTUS announcement brought some excitement back to a sleepy race. What is the next big story in the election we should be looking out for?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Next Friday's June job numbers.

– June 29, 2012 11:44 AM
Q.

RE: Euro 2012

Um, that question was submitted last week. Look at the date.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

AHA! That explains a lot.

– June 29, 2012 11:44 AM
Q.

I think your soundtrack for today...

should be Dana Carvey's "Chopping Broccoli."
A.
Chris Cillizza :

For the win.

– June 29, 2012 11:45 AM
Q.

Base move

Is there any possible way Fast & Furious appeals to people who otherwise might have voted for Obama?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Is there ANYONE in the Republican base who was thinking of voting for Obama? I doubt it.

– June 29, 2012 11:46 AM
Q.

Balotelli

The next time you answer a particularly difficult question on MSNBC or Hardball, you should rip off your shirt and pose like Balotelli.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

If I was built like Balotelli, I would NEVER wear a shirt.

– June 29, 2012 11:46 AM
Q.

NBA Draft

From a fellow Hoya, how disappointed are you that Syracuse came out on top last night in the nba draft? #HoyaSaxa
A.
Chris Cillizza :

If Dion Waiter is a big star in the NBA I will eat my hat.

– June 29, 2012 11:47 AM
Q.

Best week in Washington?

Does Don Verrilli get some redemption for his WWIW back in March?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

YES. Read: http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/who-had-the-worst-week-in-washington-supreme-court-justice-antonin-scalia/2012/06/28/gJQAMCOr9V_story.html

– June 29, 2012 11:47 AM
Q.

Political Film/VEEP

What's the best political film you've seen? And what are your thoughts on VEEP?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

HMMM.

Best political book ever: "All the King's Men" by Robert Penn Warren. I am open to suggestions on best movie.

– June 29, 2012 11:48 AM
Q.

Ronaldo

How does Cristiano Ronaldo not even take a PK?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Too busy fixing his hair to get it to look just right.

BOOM GOES THE DYNAMITE.

– June 29, 2012 11:48 AM
Q.

Chris Cillizza :

Folks I have to beg off a little early because I am -- self promotion alert! -- guest hosting Andrea Mitchell's show at 1 pm and I need to, you know, prepare.

Thanks for reading. And make sure to pre-order your copy of "The Gospel According to the Fix". It's out July 10!

LINK

Q.

 

A.
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