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June 1, 2012

11:05
A.M.

The Fix Live

Total Responses: 61

About the hosts

About the host

Host: Chris Cillizza

Chris Cillizza

Chris Cillizza is the managing editor of PostPolitics and he writes "The Fix," a politics blog for The Washington Post. He also covers the White House for the newspaper and website. Chris has appeared as a guest on NBC, CBS, ABC, MSNBC, Fox News Channel and CNN to talk politics. He lives in Virginia with his wife and son.

About the topic

The Fix's Chris Cillizza discussed the latest political news.

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Q.

Chris Cillizza :

Hello everyone!  Happy Friday.  But not really -- for the American public or President Obama with the latest May job #'s: 69K jobs created, unemployment rate up to 8.2%.

Lots of questions in the queue.  Let's do this thing.

Q.

Bill Clinton

Former president Bill Clinton seems to be more politically active than most former presidents. Is that a function of his enduring popularity, especially within the Democratic Party (neither Bush nor Carter were all that popular when they left office), or is he collecting chits for another presidential run by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

He is. But he is also younger than most past presidents. And, unlike George W. Bush, Clinton is a political animal through and through. He loves this stuff. I don't think he could imagine not being in the mix.

– June 01, 2012 11:06 AM
Q.

Elizabeth Warren

Is this Native American controversy going to matter by November? Honestly, is it going to matter by this weekend?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

It might matter this weekend, I'd be surprised if it mattered in November.

Warren has botched her handling of this badly but in an election almost certainly to be decided by jobs/economy, her Native American heritage isn't likely to break through.

All of that said, her stumbles on the issue suggest she has some growing to do on the stump to beat Downtown Scott Brown this fall.

– June 01, 2012 11:07 AM
Q.

Iowa in play?

Is there anything to suggest Iowa will be in play and the tight poll numbers are not just a result of only the Republicans having a competitive primary there?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

There's LOTS of evidence it's going to be close including a new NBC/Marist poll out yesterday that showed the race tied at 44 percent.

LINK: http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/05/31/11983819-nbc-marist-polls-obama-romney-deadlocked-in-three-key-states

– June 01, 2012 11:08 AM
Q.

Reaction to jobs report

Republicans gloating about a bad report can't be good for them, right?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

This is the tough thing for Republicans when it comes to the economy.

It clearly is better for them if the economy doesn't recover rapidly between now and November. At the same time, rooting against a recovery is decidedly bad form. It's not an easy line to walk for any politician.

– June 01, 2012 11:10 AM
Q.

If something doesn't matter does it matter?

I think you got your boxers in a bunch following a conservative driven campaign tactic in the Warren-Brown senate race. MA voter polling follows the rational and logical conclusion of the MA electorate that this story doesn't matter to the issues that affect their daily lives (and Warren pulled to within a dead heat during this "controversy"). If something doesn't matter to the actual voters in the election why does it matter to you (story after story after story)?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

1. I don't wear boxers

2. I have never said Warren loses this election because of the Native American thing. I have only said that the way she has dragged this out and turned a minor story into a MAJOR story suggests she is a bit green as a candidate.

– June 01, 2012 11:11 AM
Q.

Seriously...

Beyond complicated economic explanations - coupled with Romney's "vote your anger" ad - how does Team Obama do anything but play defense until the next jobs report? Attacking Romney's past seems like it will pale in comparison to presumably month-long (or more?) 24/7 chatter on Obama's present? Thoughts?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

This report makes the "economy is slowly improving" argument that much harder to make for Team Obama.

What Romney is and will continue to rely on is that with economic numbers like these, people will ultimately decide it's time for someone new.

Obama has to find a way -- whether it's Bain, Massachusetts or something else -- to turn peoples' attention to Romney and what he'd do if he was in the same position.

An economic referendum Obama almost certainly loses. A choice between two less than appealing options he almost certainly wins.

– June 01, 2012 11:13 AM
Q.

Just Not Paying Attention

Chris, what's the assumption on the percentage of voters just not engaged until the fall? Is it around 10%, because this appears to be the figure missing in all of the state and national polling?

A.
Chris Cillizza :

Somewhere between 7-12% of the national electorate pops up as undecided in most polling. These tend to be low information voters not affiliated with either party who spend a small amount of time (at best) engaged with the race. Which, of course, makes it a very complicated task to reach and persuade them.

– June 01, 2012 11:14 AM
Q.

Pres. Clinton

I realize it's more fun to look at his private equity praise as a continuation of the 2008 primary, but isn't it like other Democrats who have strayed from message? Who funds the Clinton Initiative? Who was the leading DLCer decades ago? Clinton being pro-private equity should surprise no one.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Agree. But being pro-private equity and praising Romney's business record as "sterling" are two different things, no?

For people who have no idea what we are talking about, read this: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/bill-clinton-sticks-another-fork-in-obamas-bain-strategy/2012/06/01/gJQAt87r6U_blog.html

– June 01, 2012 11:16 AM
Q.

38 Studios?

Hi Chris, It is getting borderline humorous here in Massachusetts. The anti-Warren people are all over the Native American story while all those opposed to Scott Brown and Romney have taken up the failure of Curt Schilling’s video game venture as some proof of GOP weakness and hypocrisy.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Yes. This is the politics we have -- if not the politics we want.

– June 01, 2012 11:17 AM
Q.

The jobs report and the plunging DOW

Chris: Earlier this year, the one big thing the President had going for him from an economic standpoint was the market, with the DOW roaring over 13,000. Now it's threatening to settle below 12,000 in the face of today's jobs report. When a certain segment of the voting public (me, for example) saw its 401Ks and IRAs growing at a nice clip, we felt optimistic. Now, not so much. This really has to play into reelection chances I think.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Fair point. And one that gets often overlooked.

– June 01, 2012 11:18 AM
Q.

270 Electoral Votes

Now that its published, how often will you be updating the Electoral Map? Will it be updated on a regular basis or on an as needed basis?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Little of both. My sense is either weekly or biweekly.

Here's a link to the map: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/politics/election-map-2012/president/

– June 01, 2012 11:19 AM
Q.

Chris Cillizza :

Sorry folks...temporary Internet explosion. I am back.

Q.

Jindal as running mate

Who has been pushing him lately? He seems to have more buzz in the last month or so.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

His resume is pretty impressive. He would be a historic pick (first Indian American on national ticket). Conservatives love him.

– June 01, 2012 11:27 AM
Q.

Indiana

Could you make a legitimate case that the Indiana Senate seat is more likely to have a Democrat in 2013 than Nebraska, Missouri, Wisconsin, or Montana?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

You could. But you woould be wrong.

– June 01, 2012 11:27 AM
Q.

Hunt...

What's the difference between a "hunter" and a "huntsman"?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

One ran for president as a Republican this year.

– June 01, 2012 11:27 AM
Q.

Buddy Garrity for Congress

After being awesome as Tim Riggins in Friday Night Lights, why is every Taylor Kitsch movie (John Carter, Battleship) an awful, money-losing bomb? Maybe Congress should pass a law that they bring back Friday Night Lights and he can only play the character of Tim Riggins. Also, why did Craig James do so poorly in the Texas Senate race? Texans love football! If I ran for Senate, I would've got more than 4% of the vote. Texas forever!
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Just a terrific submission.

Taylor Kitsch should only be allowed to play Tim Riggins. I think Congress should make a law...

– June 01, 2012 11:29 AM
Q.

Donald Trump

It doesnt make any sense for Romney to be courting Donald Trump. It just seems that Romney is so afraid of the right wing base that he will not have his Sister Soulja moment
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Not sure why Romney is appearing with Trump. I have said -- and written -- that it makes no sense. The benefits don't come close to outweighing the costs.

– June 01, 2012 11:30 AM
Q.

Jobs #

good morning chris. how bad is today's jobs number for obama on a scale of 1-10, 1 being a sunburn, 5 three mile island and 10 chernobyl?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Three Mile Island is a 5?!

It's clearly not good. And if June's job report looks similar to the May one we got today, it's really big trouble for Obama.

– June 01, 2012 11:31 AM
Q.

objectivity

Why are you such a bigot about republicans? You drink Obama's kool aid all the time. Nobody should trust anything you write or say.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Um, ok.

I say this all the time. I don't have a dog in the fight. I really don't. Never have.

I do love Kool-Aid though. Particularly on a hot summer day.

– June 01, 2012 11:33 AM
Q.

Your New Book

When does your new book come out?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Hey Mom! Thanks for being on the chat!

"The Gospel According to the Fix" comes out July 10!

Pre-order the paperback here:  Link

Pre-order the Kindle version here:  Link

– June 01, 2012 11:33 AM
Q.

Yesterday

John Edawrds verdict was thankfully yesterday, since it covered up a bad day by both campaigns and their juvenile antics
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Fair enough. Kind of a bad day to cover politics in general. Lots of stunts by the presidential candidates and then the latest Edwards gut punch. Ugh.

Here's what I wrote on the Edwards verdict if you're interested: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/john-edwards-unresolved/2012/05/31/gJQAdP974U_blog.html

– June 01, 2012 11:35 AM
Q.

Diving Deep with the Swingers

As we slog through these next few months of the presidential race heading into the conventions, is there any chance that the Fix Team could put together a "deep dive" analysis on some of the key swing states, maybe starting with Virginia? Perhaps something analyzing the 2004 and 2008 votes by county, maybe even going to the sub-county level in key places like Prince William or Henrico that saw big swings in 2008, and that could be where the 2012 election gets decided.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Yes. A GREAT idea. We will get on it. LOVE!

– June 01, 2012 11:35 AM
Q.

Jobs, Jobs, Jobs

So Obama is toast, right?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

If this report is duplicated (or close to it) for the next three-four months, it's very difficult to see how he wins.

– June 01, 2012 11:36 AM
Q.

RE: Boxers

Is that the big news of the day coming from this chat: that the Cillizza doesnt wear boxers
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Oh, I think so.

– June 01, 2012 11:36 AM
Q.

Warren

If it comes out that she did tell Harvard/Penn that she was Native American while they were interviewing/recruiting her, what does that do to the issue?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Makes it worse because she is now on record saying she formally told them about her heritage shortly after she was hired.

I don't anticipate that happening though.

– June 01, 2012 11:37 AM
Q.

George W

Will we see George W Bush on the campaign trail, including the convention, at all this year?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Maybe at the convention. Not on the campaign trail. His numbers are still nowhere near good enough -- particularly among independents -- for Romney to publicly align himself too vclosely with the former president.

– June 01, 2012 11:38 AM
Q.

Wisconsin Recall

I see all sorts of polls showing Gov. Walker ahead of his opponent. Would his ouster next Tuesday be on the scale of Lehigh beating Duke in the NCAA Tournament?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

I think a Walker loss at this point would be an upset but not a titanic one. 

– June 01, 2012 11:38 AM
Q.

Unemployment numbers

Do these terrible numbers change the narrative from - we aren't making much progress - to - Oh my God, things are getting worse?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

They could. And going from treading water to slipping below the surface is, not surprisingly, bad news politically.

– June 01, 2012 11:39 AM
Q.

Deb Fischer

Is Republican primary Senate upset winner Deb Fischer Nebraska's answer to Sharron Angle or Christine O'Donnell, i.e., one so extreme she'll snatch a GOP defeat from the jaws of victory?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Nothing I know about her -- and it's admittedly relatively little -- suggests that she is in that mold. 

– June 01, 2012 11:39 AM
Q.

A one billion dollar question

How much influence does the SuperPAC money have? Can a candidate successfully run against it? I think its a bad thing but will your "low information" voters even know about it?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

I don't think you can run against a super PAC. It might get your base revved up but it doesn't resonate with low information swing voters.

Remember that the Obama team tried to make the 2010 midterms about spending by outside conservative groups. And we know how that one turned out.

– June 01, 2012 11:41 AM
Q.

The Palin Effect

After the 2008 debacle that was the Sarah Palin Vice Presidential candidacy, isn't the Republican Party highly unlikely to nominate a politically rather inexperienced female (e.g., Martinez of NM, Ayotte of NH) to the Romney ticket?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

I think the "experience" or "ready for the job" bar is higher in the post-Palin world for male and female VP picks.

It's a reason why Marco Rubio might not get picked...

– June 01, 2012 11:42 AM
Q.

John Edwards

When asked if would run for office again, he didn't say no. He said something about God still having plans for him. I don't know whether to be horrified or amused. Your reaction?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

I am writing on this today. There will never be another run for political office for Edwards.  The public won't forgive him. Stay tuned...

– June 01, 2012 11:42 AM
Q.

Brazil/US

Did you catch the game the other day? Neymar looks so good and he has Barcelona written all over for him next season
A.
Chris Cillizza :

He did look good. Not Messi good. But good.

– June 01, 2012 11:43 AM
Q.

Warren's timing

I definitely agree that she ended up botching the discussion on this Native American thing for the most part. But deciding to finally own up to using it as resume padding on the same day as the bad May jobs report, and the same day as the Edwards trial results, seems like accidentally good timing for her (she couldn't know that the Edwards case was going to be over yesterday). So she admits to ethical wrongdoing but all the pundits are too busy talking about bigger things to talk about her thing.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Well, remember that she talked to the Globe on Wednesday night after they unearthed documents that seemed to contradict her story...not sure Warren chose the time and place to reverse herself.

– June 01, 2012 11:44 AM
Q.

VP Question

So, Condi Rice, any chance?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

I don't think so.

1. She has NEVER expressed ANY interested in elected office.

2. She's pro-choice in a pro-life party.

– June 01, 2012 11:44 AM
Q.

Bain attacks

Don't you need to poll only the battleground states where the Bain ads are actually airing to determine if the attack is making its way into the public consciousness?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

The secret? Obama campaign hasn't spent much on Bain attack ads yet. So hard to gauge if they are working. 

– June 01, 2012 11:45 AM
Q.

The real Question

What are you drinking? What are you listening to?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

1. Chai tea latte. The Fix stomach has been a bit unsettled as of late.

2. The Lumineers. GREAT new record.

– June 01, 2012 11:45 AM
Q.

"[T]he way she has dragged this out . . . suggests she is a bit green as a candidate."

But we knew that already, didn't we? No surprise there.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Some people are naturals. (John Edwards). Others are not (almost everyone else). Warren is in the latter category.

– June 01, 2012 11:46 AM
Q.

1. I don't wear boxers

TMI, Mr. Fix.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

:)

– June 01, 2012 11:47 AM
Q.

Bobby Jindal

Can you see him foregoing a presidential bid and running for senate against senator landrieu in 2014 ?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

No chance.

– June 01, 2012 11:47 AM
Q.

"Not sure why Romney is appearing with Trump. I have said -- and written -- that it makes no sense. The benefits don't come close to outweighing the costs."

Are you awaiting your invitation to appear at the Mar-a-Largo Club, so Trump can tell the world you bombed there 15 years from now?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

So good. I had to look up on the Intrawebs what that club was.  Doesn't Trump feel like someone who should be running with the Rat Pack?

– June 01, 2012 11:47 AM
Q.

RE: Diving Deep with the Swingers

That idea was so money!
A.
Chris Cillizza :

You're like a great big bear.

– June 01, 2012 11:48 AM
Q.

Eliz Warren

As a Mass. resident and lifelong Democrat, nothing short of Warren being revealed as a serial killer could make me vote for Scott Brown; However, I am truly disappointed in the Warren campaign and its handling of the Native American issue and I believe that the issue could sway independents here to vote for Brown; I truly hope that Marisa DeFranco makes the 15% of the vote required to make the primary ballot. If she does, I plan to vote for her. She speaks her mind and while that it easy to do when you've got nothing to lose, I am sick of the dems putting people up who don't know how to run a campaign.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Thanks for the thought.

– June 01, 2012 11:48 AM
Q.

Wisconsin

What's the latest word? Is it getting tighter or will Walker walk away with it?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

I really don't know.

I think Walker goes into election day as the favorite but how solidly he has a grasp on that title is anyone's guess.

– June 01, 2012 11:49 AM
Q.

"Why are you such a bigot about republicans? You drink Obama's kool aid all the time"

That's funny, I was just about to comment, "Why are you such a bigot about Democrats? You drink Romney's Kool-Aid all the time."
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Look. I LOVE Kool-Aid. It's delicious. Plus, the Kool-Aid Man was the coolest mascot for a kid's drink ever.

– June 01, 2012 11:50 AM
Q.

IT'S REALLY BIG TROUBLE FOR OBAMA

I'd say that it's really big trouble for US. Looking to the sitting President (who's no cheerleader) or his current rival (who just exudes false bravado) for "confidence" because some made-up numbers reported this month were below somebody's expectations is a fool's errand. If we want to find confidence, the American people should take a look in the mirror. Either we find it within ourselves and move forwards, or we'll continue to dither and look elsewhere for our own happiness.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Again, I am a political reporter and analyst.

I think it goes without saying that rising unemployment is bad for the country. But, my job is to view it through the political prism. And viewed that way, today is a bad day for the Obama campaign.

– June 01, 2012 11:50 AM
Q.

Romney and women

Although downplayed by the Post, your recent poll showed Romney gaining sharply among women. Will the President's support of gender-based abortions and the new figures showing 700,000 fewer women in the workforce since he took office, isn't more likely that Romney will continue to increase his support among women voters?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Downplayed? It led the homepage!  

– June 01, 2012 11:51 AM
Q.

Electoral Tie

Chris- I was playing around with the electoral map this weekend and deciding the swing states (based on your classification) for who I thought they would end up voting for I accidently created an electoral tie with 269-269. My reasoning went like this (skip to avoid amateur political pondering) Nevada and Ohio have been hit hard by the economy and Nevada has a population with religious ties to Mitt Romney, I think both go Red. Wisconsin has been getting more republican in the recent elections and will keep that new tradition and turn colors in November from Usually blue to this-time-red. PA and NH both awarded to Obama because, hey it's the NE and Obama does well there. Virginia, pushed largely by NoVA goes blue for Obama. NC comes back into the solid GOP state that it usually is now that there is no longer history to be made Florida also turns red. In every election this is possible, but this election I feel like it's an easier argument to make. If I placed a bet in Vegas that the president ends up selected by the House how likely am I to make some money?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

[GULP]

– June 01, 2012 11:51 AM
Q.

"He did look good. Not Messi good. But good"

What about Cristiano Ronaldo good?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

You mean "pretty boy who folds like a house of cards when a defender gets anywhere near him" good?  Yeah, he looked at least that good.

– June 01, 2012 11:52 AM
Q.

Warren

Does she have any Native American bloodlines? Is it similar to the Rubio "We were exiled by Castro" story?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

A genealogist has said she is 1/32nd Cherokee.  I have no reason to think she's not.

– June 01, 2012 11:52 AM
Q.

RE: Brazil/US

Things got chippy, which was kind of exciting, but, man, our talent level is just pathetic. The only way we're ever catching up to the world is if (American) football gets banned and those crazy athletes pick up futbol.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Right. This is my theory on why women's field hockey can't medal at the Olympics.

Our best female athletes play all sorts of sports; some play bball, others softball, soccer and field hockey.  The talent pool gets diluted across all of those sports.

When Mrs Fix took her team to Argentina, EVERY good female athlete plays field hockey. EVERY good male athlete plays soccer. No debate.

– June 01, 2012 11:54 AM
Q.

National Doughnut Day

Today! Does the Fix have a favorite doughnut?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

I LOVE me a bavarian cream with chocolate frosting. The Fix waistline feels less enthusiastic about that pick.

– June 01, 2012 11:54 AM
Q.

"Some people are naturals (as candidates). (John Edwards)."

That's hardly a ringing endorsement of natural candidates, you realize.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Well, he WAS (and is) incredibly gifted as a communicator. It's not my fault he used his powers for bad, not good.

– June 01, 2012 11:55 AM
Q.

Election

As of now, who do you think would win the election? Is it to close to call?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Phil Phillips.

– June 01, 2012 11:55 AM
Q.

re: WARREN'S TIMING

Oh, I'm not saying that she chose the timing herself. I mean it was literally accidental good timing. The political universe smiled upon her for a minute, so that even though she's worked herself into a problem, fewer people are around to talk about it today.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Yes then. Agreed.

– June 01, 2012 11:55 AM
Q.

Luck

Obama might be the luckiest politician ever, but if Warren loses because she never gets a chance to make her economic argument, then Scott Brown has to be a strong contender for #2.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Another lucky politician: Bill Nelson in Florida. In 06 Republicans nominate Katharine Harris.  In 2012, Republicans are probably going to nominate Connie Mack IV.

– June 01, 2012 11:56 AM
Q.

Downplayed? It led the homepage!

Could you actually answer the question?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

I think Obama will win among women voters. If his margin is 8 or under, that's good news for Romney.

Happy?

– June 01, 2012 11:57 AM
Q.

I LOVE KOOL-AID

Yeah, but isn't it like one part water, one part sugar with some red flavoring in a packet? THAT's what Mayor Bloomberg should be going after.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Bloomberg vs the Kool Aid Man? I am taking the Kool Aid Man. That dude could walk through brick walls!

– June 01, 2012 11:58 AM
Q.

Warren's bloodline

Actually, a genealogist said that if her story is true then she is 1/32nd Cherokee. It hasn't actually been proven, the genealogist who said that it had been later came back and said he had never actually seen the documents in question so couldn't verify her heritage.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

OK, Thanks for the clarification.

– June 01, 2012 11:58 AM
Q.

Trump coolness

So NOT cool enough to be hangin' with the Rat Pack--Frank, Sammy, Dean, etc. Not even suave enough to hang with the Oceans Eleven crew--George, Brad, Matt, etc.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

FACTCHECK on this claim: mostly true.

– June 01, 2012 11:58 AM
Q.

NBA Draft Lottery

Congrats to the NBA for winning its own lottery with New Orleans. Another rigged lottery system
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Wizards got the shaft.

– June 01, 2012 11:59 AM
Q.

"futbol"

That'd be "futebol" in Portuguese, por favor.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

And Ronaldo goes down clutching at his leg...but there's no one within 15 feet of him....

– June 01, 2012 12:00 PM
Q.

Chris Cillizza :

Ok, folks. That's all I have time for today. Have a GREAT weekend and, as always, be excellent to each other.

Chris

Q.

 

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