Hello everyone. After sequestering myself for the last month to write my book -- available for pre-order on Amazon here: http://www.amazon.com/Gospel-According-Fix-Insiders-Politics/dp/0307987094 -- I am BACK. With a vengeance. Like Bruce Willis.
FixAaron filled in ably in my absence. We need to get him his own chat.
With that said, let's get started. Have I already hammered down a large cafe au lait this am? Yes I have. Am I listening to Beirut on Spotify? Again, yes.
Fix Aaron should co-host with you. You could take more questions. And we'd still have his picture!
Chris Cillizza :
Wow. Punch in the gut.
Not only was I not missed but Aaron is now the "cute one" in the Fix posse. I am the Ringo Starr of the Fix band. FixRachel is John Lennon. FixFelicia is Pete Best.
– March 02, 2012 11:03 AM
Bring back FixAaron!
Chris Cillizza :
Yes, yes. You've made your voice heard, Mrs. Blake.
– March 02, 2012 11:03 AM
Any chance Condi Rice gets the VP nod? If not who do you think are the 3 most likely candidates?
Chris Cillizza :
1. Marco Rubio
2. Marco Rubio
3. Marco Rubio
I am kidding. But actually sort of not. Rubio has a few big things going for him: he's Hispanic, he's from a swing state and he's beloved by the tea party. He's also charismatic.
That's a pretty good combo. I think it's unlikely that Condi is interested in VP. She's never shown any desire to be in elected office.
Other veep possibilities: Bob McDonnell, John Thune, Rob Portman, Bobby Jindal, Susana Martinez, Nikki Haley.
– March 02, 2012 11:05 AM
Did Bob McDonnell basically cost himself any shot as the VP nominee this week with his explanations regarding the ultrasound and personhood bills
Chris Cillizza :
No.
It wasn't super helpful for McDonnell whose popularity has been built on his laser-like focus on jobs. But, I don't think it's disqualifying either.
We have a tendency to assume that relatively small events have a HUGE influence on the national dialogue. They don't always.
– March 02, 2012 11:06 AM
Ding Dong! The Witch is dead. Which old Witch? The Wicked Witch! Ding Dong! The Wicked Witch is dead.
Chris Cillizza :
I don't get people celebrating the death of someone who had a wife and four kids. I really don't. No matter how much you disagreed with or disliked Breitbart.
For what it's worth, here's my piece on the influence he had on politics: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/what-andrew-breitbart-meant-to-politics/2012/03/01/gIQA2zqckR_blog.html
– March 02, 2012 11:08 AM
Ides of March is coming up. Have you sent Fix Aaron away on assignment yet? At a minimum, don't order a Caesar salad that day.
Chris Cillizza :
– March 02, 2012 11:09 AM
Assuming Romeny wins Mass, VT (although I saw a poll there that was closer than I would have expected), Idaho, ND, and VA; and Santorum wins Tenn, Ok and comes in second in GA...what is the narrative if Santorum ends up winning Ohio?
Chris Cillizza :
Ohio will determine the narrative. If Romney wins, the race will be a lot closer to being over (I am writing on that right now). If Santorum wins, dig in: We are going to be in this race for a very long time.
– March 02, 2012 11:10 AM
Welcome Back Chris!! We missed the wrestling talk
Chris Cillizza :
FInally! Someone who missed me! Granted, not for politics. But, I'll still take it.
Also, WOOOOOOOOOO!
– March 02, 2012 11:10 AM
I know that D'Amboise was already going to run against Snowe. Who else on either side of the aisle will get in? How much of a problem will it be for newer candidate to meet Maine's reqs on signatures?
Chris Cillizza :
The signature requirement are pretty low -- 2,000 or so to make the ballot -- but the filing deadline is March 15.
I think the clear fav at this point is Dem Rep. Chellie Pingree. She ran and lost to Sen. Susan Collins but it looks like the Dem primary field is clearing out for her and she has TONS of personal dough to spend on the race.
Republican field is less clear. But, in a presidential year, Maine should favor the Democratic nominee.
– March 02, 2012 11:12 AM
Who is the better basketball player? Certainly, you've seen enough tape of Obama playing to make a judgement. I think he takes you on the dribble but your weight advantage (I say that nicely) would enable you to back him down in the post. Without having seen you play, I guess Obama takes you 10-8 one on one.
Chris Cillizza :
HMMM.
I have talked to people who have played against the Prez and they say he is sneaky good and knows his limitations. I am a little brawnier than him but he prob is more reliable as a shooter than I am. I am also not terribly good at one-on-one.
I say I would lose something like 11-7. But I think I could hold my own in a five-on-five game.
I propose: A pay-per-view event where I play Obama in one on one. People would watch. Oh people would most definitely watch.
– March 02, 2012 11:14 AM
Ok...another gaffe yesterday on the Blunt bill (and btw, a horribel excuse to his first comment). How many more of these gaffe's can he make without blowing the entire nomination?
Chris Cillizza :
Well, he is certainly testing out the limits of gaffe-dom. I don't see evidence that it is hurting him at the moment -- he did win in MI and AZ after all -- but Romney has to cut down on his unforced errors if he does wind up as the Republican nominee. The Obama team will slice and dice him if not.
– March 02, 2012 11:16 AM
Would you bet on the nominee coming from the trio of Cuomo, Gillibrand, and O'Malley...or the field?
Chris Cillizza :
Cuomo is the frontrunner. Would put O'Malley behind him and Gillibrand behind them. That said, I think all three run.
– March 02, 2012 11:17 AM
You've been on book leave? So, what is the book about, when is it coming out, and when will you be signing copies at Politics and Prose, Union Station, and/or Barnes and Noble?
Chris Cillizza :
Book is out in July. It's called "The Gospel According to the Fix". What's that? You want to pre-order it? Ok, ok, here's the link: http://www.amazon.com/Gospel-According-Fix-Insiders-Politics/dp/0307987094
As for book signings, I'd be honored to sign any book, any where that they will have me.
– March 02, 2012 11:19 AM
Its demographics look quite a bit like Michigan's. Should we expect a similar result -- a narrow Romney win? If not, why not?
Chris Cillizza :
It looks -- from the polling trend line -- that that is where we are headed.
The key difference between Ohio and Michigan is that Romney isn't a homestate boy in Ohio as he was in Michigan. Is that worth four points? Who knows.
– March 02, 2012 11:19 AM
I trust that he was kind to his friends and family, but publicly he was a toxic influence on the political debate. Do you have any personal memories of him that reinforces either my hope of his private kindness or his public preception of being an arrogrant jerk untethered to "facts" in political back and forth?
Chris Cillizza :
I met him only a few times. He was very nice to me. Cordial.
– March 02, 2012 11:20 AM
Every time I see footage of him at some event, he's wearing jeans. Each time, it seems to be a brand new pair. Does he think this communicates some kind of "man of the people" vibe? I would honestly respect him more if he did every engagement in a $5000 suit from Savile Row.
Chris Cillizza :
How great would it be if Romney appeared in a tuxedo at every campaign event? With a monocle. And a top hat.
Ok that's just me. But it would rule.
– March 02, 2012 11:21 AM
Did you go somewhere warm to finish your book?
Chris Cillizza :
Is my house warm? Yes, yes it is.
– March 02, 2012 11:21 AM
Would Rubio turn it down if he thinks Obama will win reelection (avoid being on losing ticket / set himself up for 2016 with an open field)?
Chris Cillizza :
I don't think it's the kind of thing you turn down. It's sort of an offer you can't refuse.
– March 02, 2012 11:22 AM
All the names you cited are folks who did not run for president in this cycle. So you think Romney will not want to unite with one of his vanquished foes as we had with the Obama/Biden ticket?
Chris Cillizza :
I just don't see him picking Santorum. Definitely not Newt. Could he pick Pawlenty? I guess. But what good would that really do him?
Of course, then there's Herman Cain.....
– March 02, 2012 11:23 AM
Is Rubio being hurt, helped, not affected by Blunt-Rubio? If it's such a politically damaging bill for swing states, why isn't it hurting Rubio's stock?
Chris Cillizza :
Again, I think we often make the mistake of assuming the thing that is newsy and controversial today will be newsy and controversial in 6 months time.
In truth, it probably won't be.
– March 02, 2012 11:23 AM
Could Obama actually win Arizona in the fall, or are their efforts out there more of a pipe dream than anything else?
Chris Cillizza :
I don't think so. While the growing Hispanic population makes the state enticing, it's increasingly difficult for Democrats to win white voters in the state. And that means the numbers just don't add up. At least not yet.
– March 02, 2012 11:24 AM
Michigan, schmichigan. What I'm been waiting to ask, what did you and Mrs Fix think of "Downton Abbey"?
Chris Cillizza :
– March 02, 2012 11:24 AM
... he did a superb job hosting this chat while you were gone.
Good to see you back, Chris.
Chris Cillizza :
He did. He is a class act. And handsome too!
– March 02, 2012 11:24 AM
Do you believe Newt can rise from the ashes one more time?
Chris Cillizza :
I don't. But I also didn't think he would rise or re-rise so that tells you how much I know.
It seems to me the race is now a two-person fight between Romney and Santorum. Gingrich is really playing a single state -- Georgia -- strategy in hopes of justifying his continued presence in the race. That it's his home state makes me think it's not all that impressive if he wins.
– March 02, 2012 11:25 AM
It seems like one of his bigger selling points for VP considerations is that he is Hispanic, able to draw Hispanic votes. But what do Hispanic voters think of Mark Rubio? It seems like what he stands for and the Tea Party ideals he embodies are antithetical to many (most?) Hispanics in the country. Look how well rhetorics like that have gone over in California, for example.
Chris Cillizza :
Well, I don't know this Mark Rubio guy. So hard for me to judge.
– March 02, 2012 11:26 AM
Newt Gingrich's campaign, or Arsene Wegner's managerial career at Arsenal? Both face what could be must-win contests this week.
Chris Cillizza :
How about Andre Villes-Boas at Chelsea!?
– March 02, 2012 11:27 AM
99.9% of the time I would agree with you about respecting the dead, but Andrew Breitbart never cared about who he hurt or which family he destroyed. A lot like Russ that way!
Chris Cillizza :
His kids don't deserve to grow up without a dad. No one's kids do.
– March 02, 2012 11:27 AM
I am still not sure how you didn't include a reference to yourself as the homeless man's Bill Simmons in your article "Why President Obama sat down with Bill Simmons."
Chris Cillizza :
It's a good point. I am KICKING myself.
If you missed my Simmons/Obama piece, it's here: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/why-president-obama-sat-down-with-bill-simmons/2012/03/01/gIQAntY5kR_blog.html
– March 02, 2012 11:28 AM
Chris,
You've got an able young protege, but he is no substitute for the original Mr. Fix.
Chris Cillizza :
Thanks for saying that, Mom.
– March 02, 2012 11:28 AM
You're argument for Marco Rubio sounds a lot like the argument for Sarah Palin four years ago. Conservative base favorite- check. Non-white male, check. Blatantly obvious that the GOP is only nominating him because of these two factors, check. If Rubio was a Hispanic from a swing state who wasn't amazingly conservative, he would be valuable in the general and potentially entice independents. But as an arch-conservative, he's either going to be ignored by the Hispanic population (16% and growing) or they will feel they are being pandered to and flock to the Democratic party, much like women did four years ago.
Chris Cillizza :
The difference (at least from my perspective): Rubio is FAR more ready for the national spotlight than Palin was. And he's more able as a politician. That makes a BIG difference.
– March 02, 2012 11:30 AM
But who's the George Harrison?
Chris Cillizza :
HMMM.
So if Aaron is McCartney and Rachel is Lennon then I need to hire someone else to be the shy yet incredibly gifted one. Resumes welcome.
– March 02, 2012 11:30 AM
Also the signatures have to be approved by the town clerks BEFORE submitting them to Maine's office of the Secretary of State. Also a certain percentage has to be gathered from each geographic area of the state. So it's not as easy at it would seem.
Chris Cillizza :
Thanks for the clarification!
And, yes, Olympia Snowe didn't leave her potential replacements all that much time...
– March 02, 2012 11:31 AM
Saying that Satan was afoot in America
OR
Calling Obama a "snob" for supporting people going to college
OR
Saying JFK's separation-of-church-and-state speech made him want to vomit
Chris Cillizza :
Vomit.
Throwing up is gross. It just is.
– March 02, 2012 11:31 AM
And even if you didn't want to be decent about it, showing glee would just provide the other side with red meat to castigate you.
Chris Cillizza :
– March 02, 2012 11:32 AM
The Rock would make fewer gaffes than Romney and return the United States to a "Nation of Domination". Don't laugh, Arnold was the GOP Gov. of California, and he might get a push from Jesse Ventura Independents.
Chris Cillizza :
FINALLY, The Rock has come BACK to Tampa, Florida!!!
Also, is there anything that screams populism more than the "People's Elbow"?
– March 02, 2012 11:33 AM
Come to Chicago and do a signing at the Billy Goat. I'll buy you a cheezborger.
Chris Cillizza :
Thanks, Mayor Emanuel. Will do.
– March 02, 2012 11:33 AM
This was like a big week for Senate race news. Can we please talk about that, instead of your book?!?
Chris Cillizza :
Um, no.
I kid. It was. And it was a very good week for Democrats.
Check out what Fix 2.0 Aaron Blake wrote: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/once-rosy-senate-map-looking-much-less-friendly-for-republicans/2012/02/29/gIQAxNebkR_blog.html
And here's my piece on why John Cornyn had the "Worst Week in Washington": http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/who-had-the-worst-week-in-washington-sen-john-cornyn/2012/03/01/gIQAzvBfmR_story.html
– March 02, 2012 11:35 AM
If he wasn't consumed with his media career, he would be a good VP pick for Romney. Not that will happen...
Chris Cillizza :
Good point. And they have had a major league detente since the 2008 campaign when it was clear Huck hated Mitt.
– March 02, 2012 11:35 AM
Are you surprised by Norm Dicks retirement? Are there other big retirement announcements yet to come?
Chris Cillizza :
Not all that surprised by Dicks. He had been in the House since 1976!
I think we are seeing lots more retirement due to redistricting. In California, where an independent panle drew the lines, 6 Members have already announced they are retiring including David Dreier earlier this week.
– March 02, 2012 11:36 AM
Chris,
Why is there no Kindle pre-order for your book? Hard-copy books are so 2009.
Chris Cillizza :
http://www.amazon.com/Gospel-According-Fix-Insiders-ebook/dp/B0074D1KNC/ref=tmm_kin_title_0?ie=UTF8&m=AG56TWVU5XWC2
BOOM!
– March 02, 2012 11:36 AM
Sure, but only if he also carries a tuxedo cat. (And doesn't put it on the roof.)
Chris Cillizza :
Or bathes in a room full of gold doubloons.
– March 02, 2012 11:37 AM
What is Ron Paul still doing in this race? He has become irrelevant.
Chris Cillizza :
Not to the people who believe in him.
And I continue to believe that there is a day of reckoning coming between Paul and the GOP.
Read this: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/memo-to-republicans-ignore-ron-paul-at-your-peril/2012/02/28/gIQAIiVBhR_blog.html
– March 02, 2012 11:38 AM
If he has a deal with Romney -- or makes one in the future -- what can Mitt give him? Rand Paul is *not* going to be the VP candidate. Ron Paul will *not* have any say over the GOP platform on foreign policy, the drug war, etc.
Chris Cillizza :
Yup. And that's the essence of the problem. Ron is going to want something...maybe it's that Romney helps Rand if/when he runs for prez?
– March 02, 2012 11:39 AM
Rothenberg made the call to switch Missouri from Tossup to Lean Republican. All polling shows that it is a dead heat. What is the state of the race in your opinion?
Chris Cillizza :
LOTS of Senate q's....
McCaskill's problem is that she is in the low 40s when matched against the GOP field. Yes, that field is decidedly unimpressive but it's hard for an incumbent to win when you can't get out of the low 40s.
(Two notable exceptions: Harry Reid and Jesse Helms.)
At the moment, it feels like whoever Republicans nominate has a 50-50 or slightly better shot at beating McCaskill.
But, the campaign has really not started yet so that can (obviously) change.
– March 02, 2012 11:40 AM
What are the odds that Lugar actually loses the primary race to Mourdock?
Chris Cillizza :
Pretty high.
Lugar made a strategic decision a while back that he wasn't going to walk back his moderate profile in the Senate. I think that was a mistake.
Mourdock is not a great fundraiser. He hasn't been a terrific candidate. But he is closer ideologically to the average Indiana Republican primary voter than Lugar. And that's a problem for the incumbent.
– March 02, 2012 11:42 AM
Angus King -- he's been out of office since 2003. Would he be a potent force as an independent candidate?
Chris Cillizza :
Sure. And Maine has a history of third party candidates being real factors.
– March 02, 2012 11:43 AM
I know the case against Bob Kerrey -- he's spent the last decade in New York City, most of it as president of a *very* liberal university. He's running in a strongly Republican state, in a presidential election year. While he has a "maverick" reputation, he's definitely more liberal than Ben Nelson.
So what's the case FOR Bob Kerrey?
Chris Cillizza :
Former governor AND Senator in the state. Known commodity. Should be able to raise money. Will gets LOTS of national attention.
– March 02, 2012 11:43 AM
How damaged is Connie Mack by the recent revelations about his younger days? Do voters just chalk it up to youthful indiscretions/all 20-somethings do stupid stuff, or does it stick?
Chris Cillizza :
The primary race in Florida is Mack's to lose for one reason and one reason only: His last name is Mack.
His father is a legend in the state. Most people statewide don't know much about Mack the younger other than his last name.
– March 02, 2012 11:44 AM
Silly argument. How many wives and kids did OBL have? I'm with Hitchens and Taibbi.
Chris Cillizza :
Entitled to your opinion. As a dad, I feel terrible for his wife and kids.
– March 02, 2012 11:45 AM
That has to be the most overrated wrestling move ever
Chris Cillizza :
More overrated than Hogan's leg drop?
– March 02, 2012 11:46 AM
Touche Sir. Pre-Order purchased.
Chris Cillizza :
– March 02, 2012 11:46 AM
... is from an article cited in the Morning Fix by Danny Yadron of the Washington Wire: Newt Gringrich's "extended baloney riff" on the campaign trail.
Chris Cillizza :
Yes. Hard to go wrong with a piece that has the words "extended baloney riff" in it.
– March 02, 2012 11:46 AM
Does anyone on your list really want to hitch his wagon to a falling star? Why would they?
Chris Cillizza :
Can we really say the GOP nominee -- whoever it is -- is a "falling star"? Three months ago, it looked like whoever Republicans nominated would have started the general election as a favorite against Obama.
Stuff changes in politics. It's what makes it interesting to follow.
– March 02, 2012 11:47 AM
If Richard Nixon really said that those who hate you win when you hate them, he must have been talking about himself. By the standards of that quote, those who hated him won, because anyone who comes up with an enemies list pretty clearly hates those who oppose him.
Chris Cillizza :
Nixon was very smart. Except when it came to himself.
– March 02, 2012 11:48 AM
How surprised are you that Bob Kerrey is getting back into the race for Senate in Nebraska?
Chris Cillizza :
Not. Kerrey is a political animal. He wanted back in. He got back in.
– March 02, 2012 11:48 AM
Hi Chris (welcome back) - any intel based on Super Tuesday ad buys? I would think Santorum would focus on the cheaper markets (AK, ID, ND, OK), but what about Atlanta, Nashville, Cincinnati, Cleveland, and Columbus?
Chris Cillizza :
Bulk of the spending by Romney and Santo right now is in Ohio. Which makes sense given how important the state is to both of them.
– March 02, 2012 11:49 AM
... when Richard Nixon is the voice of common decency and good sense. Tells you how far the state of political discourse has fallen. Nice citing, Fix.
Chris Cillizza :
Thanks. I am looking to buy a good Nixon biography. Don't know as much about him as I should.
– March 02, 2012 11:49 AM
If Mitt wrote into Hax, what advice would he ask for?
Chris Cillizza :
"People say I am cold and don't connect. But my family adores me. What gives?"
– March 02, 2012 11:50 AM
I have a hard time being sympathetic toward Andrew Breitbart after what he said after Ted Kennedy passed away.
Chris Cillizza :
Fair enough. I am not arguing that Andrew was a model citizen. Just that his wife and kids deserve respect for their loss.
– March 02, 2012 11:51 AM
And don't forget he earned the Congressional Medal of Honor as a Navy SEAL in Vietnam, although political enemies have tried to cast this in a negative light.
Chris Cillizza :
– March 02, 2012 11:51 AM
Must add a cane and spats to complete the look.
Chris Cillizza :
SPATS! Also a wad of 100s.
– March 02, 2012 11:51 AM
In October 2012 when every pundit including yourself is saying what a dumb pick Marco Rubio was as a running mate, please remember this Live Chat.
Chris Cillizza :
If I don't, I am sure you will.
– March 02, 2012 11:52 AM
Have you ever seen the tweets he wrote after the death of Sen. Kennedy? Sorry for his kids but we can't whitewash his rhetoric just b/c he's gone.
Chris Cillizza :
Agree. But, his public life is one thing. The loss for his children and wife is personal. And to my mind very sad.
– March 02, 2012 11:53 AM
Now you have me seeing Mitt Romney as a cross between the Planters Peanuts mascot and the New Yorker logo guy.
Chris Cillizza :
Or the dude from Monopoly!
http://www.fishandcheese.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/logo-mr-monopoly.jpg
– March 02, 2012 11:53 AM
If so, does that mean that President Romney will appoint Rick Santorum as Secretary of State?
Chris Cillizza :
I don't think so. But if Republicans lose in 2012, you can bet your bottom dollar Santorum will run for the 2016 nomination.
– March 02, 2012 11:54 AM
Who would have thought that the real Baptist candidate would turn out to be a Catholic? Like the Huck, Santorum does great with evangelicals and voters in rural areas. Doesn't do so well with his fellow Catholics.
Chris Cillizza :
And, like Huck, Santorum will get a major boost from this race even if he comes up short to Romney.
– March 02, 2012 11:55 AM
What's your take on this bill?
Chris Cillizza :
– March 02, 2012 11:56 AM
Did Mr Cillizza just go against Larry Sabato!?!
Larry Sabato wrote this week that Gov. McDonnell's shot at being the Republican running mate went down to nil. (Romney or whoever else wouldn't want to waste all that time intially having to defend the transvaginal ultrasound bill being one of the main points).
Chris Cillizza :
– March 02, 2012 11:56 AM
And, SCENE!
Thanks for joining me. I will be back at it every Friday at 11 am. So bring your best political questions and I will try to answer them.
Want to celebrate it being Friday? What better way than pre-ordering the Fix book? Right here.
