Dec 10, 2010

Get your Friday Live Fix as Chris Cillizza discusses the Friday Line, the Worst Week in Washington, Congress, the Obama administration, the recent elections and all the latest political news.

Good morning everyone!

Wondering what to get the ole Fix for Christmas? That's easy: the full Aubrey-Maturin series by Patrick O'Brian.

Now that we've dispatched with the important stuff, let's get to your questions -- political and otherwise.

Will Feinstein retire and if so, who are the possible replacements?

Well, she will be 81 years old on election day 2012 so retirement is always a possibility.

But, when I talk to Dem strategists about who they worry about in terms of retirements, DiFi isn't regularly mentioned.

If she did retire, I think it would be a crowded race to replace her. My guess is that a few House members -- Loretta Sanchez etc -- would look at running. Maybe someone like Gavin Newsom, who is going to be the LG?

For Republicans, it's hard to know. After Carly Fiorina's loss, I am skeptical loss that any GOPer can win statewide in Cali these days.

But man would that be a race . It's been almost two decades since we had an open seat Senate race in California.

I noticed in your predictions of vulnerable Democratic senators in 2012 includes him.  I am  trying to figure out how he could lose. Hoeven is now a senator and Berg most likely won't try to make the jump after only one term in the house. Who does that leave?

I think Conrad looks strong right now -- no question.

But so did North Dakota Rep. Earl Pomeroy at this point in the last election too.

North Dakota is a Republican state and in a Republican year -- like 2010 clearly was -- Conrad could be imperiled.

Generally agree with you on the weakness of the GOP field but, again, the 2010 cycle taught me that sometimes that people we have never heard of can be good candidates. (Prime example: Ron Johnson in Wisconsin.)

Would Lingle really want to run for  Senate in 2012 with Obama at the top of the ticket? Something about that just doesn't seem smart.

Everything I hear is that she is planning on it.

I agree that it's going to be tough in a presidential year in Obama's home state.

I wonder if Lingle is hoping to scare Akaka out of running again. (He will be 88 on election day 2012.)

Not sure that will work but obviously she would have a much better chance in an open seat situation.

What can you tell us about this state senator the GOP is trying to recruit to run against Bob Casey? Is Kim Ward a real threat to him?

Hard to know right now. Like I said above, sometimes people we think are great candidates wind up being bad (Charlie Crist) and some who we have never heard of wind up being great.

So, you never know. My general sense is that a state legislator running for Senate in a state the size of Pennsylvania could struggle.

I wonder why we are not hearing more about Tom Ridge as a possible candidate? Or is the former governor done with politics for good?

Chris, why has your jump shot slipped so much recently? It's limiting you against the 2-3 zone.

Man.

The truth hurts.

I have never been a reliable outside shooter and that's especially true now that I am not playing as much.

PS -- I am still waiting for my invite to ball with the Prez. HINT HINT.

Who looks likely to jump into the race against Debbie Stabenow of Michigan?

Lots of people looking...no one serious in yet.

I think the polling that came out earlier this week that showed Stabenow in jeopardy will likely encourage some people to take a look at the race.

Maybe Mike Bouchard who ran for the Senate against Stabenow in 2006? (He got 41 percent.)

I think Stabenow will benefit from running in a presidential year as it will help drive out the state's significant Democratic base.

But, in a state where the economy has struggled as badly as it has in Michigan, any incumbent has a right to worry.

Has Webb laid down any sort of timeline for when he'll make the decision on a 2nd term?

No.

But, EVERY signal he is sending seems to suggest he won't run again.

Now, Webb isn't a traditional politician -- to put it mildly -- so he could well announce today that he is running again.

But, Democrats aren't optimistic about it. If he does decide not to run, he'd be better off making that announcement sooner rather than later to give the party time to find someone good to replace him.

Just wanted to say I really enjoy the articles going state by state, going over the redistricting possibilities!

THANKS.

Aaron Blake, one of my able deputies, has been writing them and they are absolutely essential reading.

Link here: http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/mapping-the-future/

Actually, Feinstein was born in 1933, so she'll only be 79 in 2012. But point taken.

Damn me and my bad math!

There's a reason I write a blog.

Thought you wanted something from the Leftorium

I want an elephant named Stampy.

I have a hard time seeing Obama being primaried by anyone to the right or left

So. Do. I.

Check out today's "Fast Fix" video where I make the case: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/politics/the-fast-fix/

What is Ed Rendell going to do next?

I don't know. But I am fascinated to find out.

Fulltime television commenter would be my guess. Rendell is GREAT on TV.

I don't think the Pennsylvania GOP wants to give a Senate nomination to another pro-choice Republican. They hate Specter that much!

Ah, good point.  Still, if anyone could clear a primary it would be Ridge.

Would be fascinating if we had a pro choice R (Ridge) against a pro-life D (Casey) wouldn't it?

Concur about looking to the state house since those folks tend to be more conservative then the federal delegation. Actually the local newspaper did an interview with U.S. Rep. Dent. While he didn't outright decline to run for the Republican nod, he didn't to into the idea either.

Dent could be good...in this political climate, I think your ideal nominee (of either party) is a wealthy person without a voting record.

Has anyone asked if Tim Kaine would jump into the race? If not him, who are the other options? Please, no one named Deeds or Moran (or heaven forbid, the Macker!).

No one really has although I hear through the grapevine that he wouldn't be interested in the race.

And, that would likely mean Democrats turn to Tom Perriello as their candidate.

I think Terry McAuliffe has his sights set on a run for gov in 2013 and isn't going to be distracted...

Will anyone with serious stature and money challenge President Obama for the Democratic party nomination? Will Mayor Bloomberg get in the race, probably as an independent?

See above.

Short answer: no. (Or at least VERY unlikely.)

I am sorry but Chris Hayes must be Rachel Maddow in drag? Has anyone ever seen them together?

Whoah, whoah. Leave C. Hayes alone.

He is a Fix hoops pal. (Good player. Strong drive and good finisher.)

I would say this in general about those who criticize peopl on TV: It's a lot harder than you think.

Will George Allen run again for Senate or does he have other plans? What is the statute of limitations on politically incorrect behavior during a campaign?

He's running.

And, to your second question, we'll find out.

My guess is that Allen won't have the primary field to himself.  But, will any of his opponents use the specter of "macaca" to raise questions about his ability to win a general election?

So weird that Jim Webb is only 4 years into his first-time since he seems like he's been in the U.S. Senate for ages. Certainly longer then the other members of 2006 class. But how come he's looking to retirement?

Because he hates raising money and chafes at the way in which the Senate comports itself.

Remember that Webb was drafted into the race by an online petition -- not exactly the prototypical path for a Senator.

The question for Webb is whether he wants to do what it takes -- and that's a lot of fundraising -- to hold a job he may not enjoy all that much to begin with.

Fast Fix video today

"a wealthy person without a voting record" hmmm . . . Montgomery Burns?

Absolutely.

Campaign manager: Mr. Smithers.

Possible negatives: Had a vest made of dogs made. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qsFHEK_o9U8

Considering how many Democrats are the incumbent (which I thought incumbency was a good thing?), just Sen. Webb retiring isn't that bad, right?

If just Webb retires, Democrats would be THRILLED. Remember that they have 23 incumbents -- 21 Dems and 2 indies that caucus with Dems -- up in 2012.


Republicans have to defend just 10 seats.

I am at home today, on a Mac with Firefox and NOW I see what the Post means when it says the new chats auto-refresh. Boo for my work PC and IE Explorer! You're a Mac guy, right? To keep it on-topic, I'd like to run for the open Senate seat if Webb decides not to run.

Macs rule.

This is a true fact.

And, start collecting signatures...

The last couple of years, you haven't f played well against the 2-3 Zone. Of course its hard when your an inferior team to your arch rival. Good luck against the rest of your non-conference schedule, looks like you need it. Go Orange

I. hate. Syracuse.

That said, Carmelo Anthony was the best college player I ever saw in person.  Just amazing.  He beat G'town by himself.

Barack Obama versus Mike Gravel: How would you handicap that race?

No. Contest.

But, we could hope that Gravel produces another gem like this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0rZdAB4V_j8

Is it an exclusive invite list to play hoops with the Fix.

Yes. Very.

If he runs as a third party candidate I am sure he can count on the support of NRA members and gun owners like myself. Not. Obama is more pro gun and gets a higher score from the NRA than Bloomberg.

Stay tuned for my Monday Fast Fix video. I make the case for why Bloomberg will never run -- because he knows he can't win.

And, the gun issue is one of the main reasons.

Mike Gravel - Rock

"Would be fascinating if we had a pro choice R (Ridge) against a pro-life D (Casey) wouldn't it?" Yes, but not unprecedented. In 1990, pro-choice Republican Barbara Hafer ran for gov. against (and lost to) pro-life Casey Sr. Oh, Pennsylvania...

Well done.  DO NOT FORGET: Politics and Pints -- our monthly trivia night -- is THIS coming Monday night.

7 pm. Capitol Lounge. 231 Pennsylvania Ave Se.

Facebook invite: http://www.facebook.com/event.php?eid=172016872829260&index=1

I think the new Josh Ritter album might be it.  That dude is amazing.

Listening to it now.

Bayh/Pence for the governorship - who would win?

Pence is running for prez (I think).

And that would be a heck of a good race. Slight edge to Bayh. But VERY slight.

MIA and/or irrelevant for years with no leadership solution visible on the horizon. And, as for Darryl Issa, your welcome.

Heyoooo!

 

But "may retire" is very different from retiring, right? Virginian Democrats are about to lobby for a job that may not even be open. Personally I think the blogosphere is over-reading Sen. Webb. I think he is just trying to downplay his own ambitions and say later on, "The good folks of Virginia wanted me to run" or something along those lines.

Maybe so. Time will tell. Like I said, Webb is VERY unpredictable.

I see that there will be a Politics & Pints this Monday at Cap Lounge at 7 pm. Just a quick question (which I know has been answered before but I can't seem to find it): Is all of the trivia political? Or are there a round or two of general trivia, too?

NO!

Two rounds are political. Three rounds are not!

Come! Did I mention it's Monday night? And did I mention everyone who plays gets one of these: http://ow.ly/i/6fh1

"Whoah, whoah. Leave C. Hayes alone." I'm not sure the chatter meant that as criticism. Anyway, you're just defending him/them because you all have the same hipster glasses.

People with hipster glasses have to stick together.

Also, Chris Hayes is approximately 11.3 times smarter than me. I calculuated this one day.

They had different Bob Casey's running. Voters are easily confused. At least now with screen voting you can put mugshots on screens and vote by face. I'd vote for the ugliest people.

I read this question 5 times. And I still have no idea what the heck you are talking about.

HI Chris, One more guy looking like he is working hard staring at screen as he reads along with your chat. Sometimes you have those video features that the workers of the world can't watch because they clearly won't pass the faking work test. Is there a way to publish a transcript?

ARGH. No.

Apologies.  But, I WILL send an email to your boss explaining the edifying nature of the Fast Fix videos.

I can be VERY persuasive.

Is Arsenal's Samir Nasir the best player in the world, or just the best player in England?

Messi clearly the best in the world. (Don't forget him because he is in Spain.)

Also, Cristiano Ronaldo also ridiculous.

In EPL, Nasri's goal last week was just amazing. But, still not as good at this volley by Spurs' Gareth Bale, which to me is the most mindblowing thing I have seen in recent memory: http://soccer-portal.org/cat/goal-of-the-day/2713-gareth-bale-goal-v-stoke.html

No, Chris, DiFi was born on 6/22/33. She is 77 now, and will be 79 in 2012.

Yup. See correction above. I was told there would be no math.

What is the Terminator's political future? Do you think Schwarzenegger could win a Senate seat if he was interested? Will he . . . be back?

Touche.

But, no.

His approval numbers are dismal. Remember that the way Jerry Brown won the governor's race was with an ad that linked Meg Whitman to Arnold Schwarzenegger.

I am not sure what the Governator does in politics. VP to President Bloomberg!

Why does Allen want to go back to the Senate? He never liked it and in six years there, he never did anything. Why not just wait until 2013 and run for a governor again--a job he did seem to enjoy?

I genuinely don't know.

Other than that 2013 could be crowded between LG Bill Bolling and AG Ken Cuccinelli.

There's little question that Allen liked being in the governors' mansion far more than the Senate.

Albert Haynesworth or Mike Shanahan?

Ask and you shall receive: 

Who had the Worst Week in Washington? Albert Haynesworth.

Will you be taking your talents to DVR to record Heat-Warriors with Simmons in the analyst seat or will you be staying up late to see him DO IT LIVE?

Staying up late to watch.

Simmons may not be the god but he is definitely a god.

Which Republican do you think will run for the Senate from Ohio in 2012?

Too early to know.

But, Republicans will find someone serious.

Ohio moved away from Democrats in a major way in 2010 AND Sen. Sherrod Brown is probaly too liberal for the state.

This will be a major target in 2012.

Would Glenn Nye be a good option for the Democrats in Virginia if Webb does not stand in 2012? It seems like his moderate voting record would be helpful against someone like George Allen.

Maybe.

But, to the extent that the national party matters in picking candidates in a primary (and you can debate whether they do), Perriello is FAR better liked than Nye.

So, Perriello would get a major hand in raising money and lining up support. Nye wouldn't.

Any truth to the rumor that Urban Myer "retired" so he could run for Bill Nelson's seat? Actually, who will challenge from the Republicans- assuming he runs again?

Holy cow. That would be fascinating. But, I don't think so.

I think we are headed to a primary between soon to be former Sen. George Lemiuex and state Senate president Mike Haridopolos.

And, if it comes to pass, that will be a very good race.

Funny is that Washington Post columnists Amy Argetsinger and Roxanne Roberts mentioned their own fondness for Chris Hayes in another Live Chat. The man truly has some fans.

He's just a very nice guy.

And, a good hoops player. Which is more important to me.

Has one teeny tiny problem with being Veep -- he wasn't born here! And it's over my dead body that the Constitution is amended for a vanity run for the second highest office in the land.

He will take a flamethrower to the Constitution. You think a little thing in the Constitution is going to hold back the Governator? Please.

Did you go to the Simmons book signing earlier this week? Were you like a giddy schoolgirl asking him to sign his book on basketball?

I didn't. I missed it.

I have actually sat down and picked the Sports Guy's brain in the last few months.

And, yes, it was a little like this: Chris Farley interviews Paul McCartney

Do you think Mike DeWine would run against Sherrod Brown in 2012?

He could. Not sure a defeated former senator is the right choice though.

In addition to Webb, any others likely to quit in frustration?

A few -- Voinovich, Bayh -- did this cycle. So, probably yes. Who they are I do not know.

If you do, email me at chris.cillizza@wpost.com. Always happy to have a scoop!

Who would you think would be the main challengers to Ensign in Nevada from the GOP side

Dean Heller. 2nd district Rep. I assume he runs no matter what Ensign does.

And, if Heller does run for Senate, watch for Sharron Angle to run -- and probably win -- the open seat 2nd district race.

How much effect does Palin's Hamlet routine have on the rest of the GOP field waiting to announce a run for Prez in 2012? I don't get why some of the lesser known, to the general public, don't try to get a head start with staff, raising money, organizing in early states. Or is this going on behind the scenes and we don't know? And Palin is going to Haiti--- will we next see Mike Pence in the Sudan or Pawlenty in Patagonia?

You read my mind. Or my fingers.

I wrote about why some lesser known candidate should already be in the race yesterday: http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/eye-on-2012/post-16.html

As for Palin, I think she is THE prime mover in the 2012 race. She acts, other react.

Would Pence be a serious candidate if he ran for president? I mean, I've seen him give a lot of interviews over the years, and I always came away with the impression that the guy was all hat and no cattle, you know.

Hard to know until the spotlight shines on him.

What he has going for him is that he's a down the line social and fiscal conservative who can give one heck of a good speech.

What he doesn't: he's a House member who has no proven ability to raise the sort of money you are going to need to run for prez.

Any chance Biden would not want to deal with being Veep anymore?

No way.

I really have a hard time seeing Rick Santorum making any traction in any GOP Primary in 2012. He will be competing with Huckabee and Palin for the cultural conservative part of the party

You are assuming Palin and Huckabee run. Which they may. But they also may not.

Make sure to read Karen Tumulty's piece on Rick Santorum today. Good stuff. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/12/06/AR2010120606175.html

Since Michael Wilbon has left, is there competition to see who gets his office?

We are leaving it vacant as a shrine to Wilbon. That dude is a genius.

Now, when I start "Political PTI" who should my co-host be. The Wilbon to my Mr. Tony?

Speaking of Arnie's, do you think Sec. Arne Duncan has a future in electoral politics?

Not sure. But I have heard he is a wicked hoops player.

I wouldn't know, having never been invited to play ball with the Prez.

(THE HURT. IT STINGS.)

Despite his rep as "too liberal," there is one issue that Sherrod Brown always wins on with Ohioans. Trade. He is a near constant critic of NAFTA and other trade deals. Opposition NAFTA runs deep in Ohio and crosses party lines.

Fair enough.

I am at work also, using the ancient IE6, and the chats refresh with no problem.

IE 6!

That still exists? Awesome.

I am doing this chat from an Apple IIe.

Leading darkhorse on the pachyderm side.

Mixed metaphors!

But I agree.

Where do people go in Chicago to cry in their beers when they're not in D.C. playing P and  P?

Billy Goat Tavern.

Or, go the Vic and watch Jeff Tweedy!

Did you watch the interview with Rachel Maddow by David Letterman last month where Dave couldn't stop talking about Chris Hayes? It's super funny.

This chat is VERY heavy on Chris Hayes.

We have made it through an entire chat without a Sarah Palin or Christine O'Donnellm reference...can it be???!

Oh great Fix, I thought you might have insight. I love FNL too, but as a woman, I am often sort of struck by how often people (Coach, but others too) talk about what it means to "be a man." In all the school-related things I did (including at my all-girls' high school in the 80s) I don't recall anyone ever telling us what it meant to "be a woman" (except in health class!). Does anyone do that? Does Mrs. Fix do it with her team? And to make this a political question (and get your quota in), did Christina O'Donnell play sports in hugh school?

This Doesn't count...this is a "Christina O'Donnell" question!

As for Mrs. Fix, she is the female John Wooden. Or Coach K. Period. End of sentence.

His secret weapon, wife Connie Schultz!

Much like Fix secret weapon: Mrs. Fix.

Don't forget to stop at the Wiener's Circle after last call. If it's good enough for Clooney, it's good enough for other tourists.

Good call. Chicago=great city.

OK. We are out of time.

Thanks for joining me. I'll be back next Friday. Same Fix time, same Fix channel.

DO NOT FORGET: Politics and Pints on Monday. Free tumblers for ALL participants. RSVP and let us know you are coming: http://www.facebook.com/cillizza?v=app_2344061033&ref=search#!/event.php?eid=172016872829260&index=1

Have a great weekend.

Chris

In This Chat
Chris Cillizza
Chris Cillizza is the managing editor of PostPolitics and he writes "The Fix," a politics blog for The Washington Post. He also covers the White House for the newspaper and website. Chris has appeared as a guest on NBC, CBS, ABC, MSNBC, Fox News Channel and CNN to talk politics. He lives in Virginia with his wife and son.

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