This is the LAST hour long Live Fix chat before the election.
Wow. I cannot believe we made it.
Lots and lots and lots of questions so let's do it.
Would Democrats really want Meek to drop out? Wouldn't that depress African American turnout and harm there chances in the Florida governor's race?
Chris Cillizza :
I think the whole thing -- Bill Clinton trying to intervene to get Meek out etc -- reeks of desperation.
The simple fact is that even without Meek in the race, it's difficult for me to see how Crist wins. Crist is a man without a country politically and while I suppose he would win over a chunk of former Meek backers, I could also seeing a lot of those voters staying home.
If Meek had dropped out of the race soon after he won the Democratic primary, that might have given Crist enough time to make the case for why he was the lesser of two evils in a one on one matchup with Marco Rubio.
But, too much water was already under the bridge for a Meek drop-out to matter all that much. And, now that he is staying in the race he is headed to the low to mid 20s in terms of vote share. Not good.
– October 29, 2010 11:02 AM
Will Charlie Crist be a pundit on CNN or MSNBC after this election cycle?
Chris Cillizza :
– October 29, 2010 11:02 AM
If you had to guess what would be the biggest upset of the election? Victories for McAdams or Melancon? Defeats for Dingell Bono Mack?
Chris Cillizza :
I think it's VERY unlikely the upsets will come on the Republican side as you suggest.
In an election like this one where the national political environment is heavily tilted toward the GOP, the races we don't see coming will almost certaiinly be where Republicans upset Democrats.
Where will that be? I can honestly say I have no idea.
– October 29, 2010 11:04 AM
What do you think will be the closest House, Senate, and Gubernatorial elections and do you see any potential recounts in any of them?
Chris Cillizza :
Good questions.
Senate: Washington and Colorado
House: Oregon 5
Gov: Vermont
I think we will see a ton of recounts and legal challenges -- particularly in Alaska with Lisa Murkowski running as a write-in candidate.
– October 29, 2010 11:05 AM
So will Mr. and Mrs. Fix be dressing up as the Coach Taylor and his wife this Halloween?
Chris Cillizza :
Oh man. That would be, to quote Brett Favre, awesome.
Just a blue windbreaker and hat for me and some of those cool Rayban wayfarer sunglasses for Mrs. Fix.
Sidebar: Fix Jr. will be going as a lion -- mane and all!
– October 29, 2010 11:06 AM
Do you get on your knees every day and thank Florida for making politics fun? I defy you to name another state that has done so much for political junkies over the past decade.
Chris Cillizza :
Florida may well take the cake.
But, New Jersey and Illinois haven't been too shabby over the past decade either.
– October 29, 2010 11:07 AM
I was feeling a glimmer of hope for Joe Sestak as the polls started to turn in his favor. Now that glimmer seems to be fading. Please help me keep hope alive. Please tell me there is still a chance. PLEASE !!!!!
Chris Cillizza :
I think that's the right read.
Sestak closed about two weeks ago -- thanks to a consolidation of Democrats in the state. But, it appears as though he is going to fall just short to Pat Toomey -- the result of an unpopular national party and a not-enthused-enough Democratic base.
I would say though that the race is close enough that Sestak still could win if Democrats can rally their base in the final 4 days.
– October 29, 2010 11:08 AM
What's your take on the relevance of the rallies this weekend in terms of Tuesday's elections?
Some have said that the antics of Stewart and Colbery tend to trivialize serious issues and/or that they will somehow step on the Democrat's message.
Chris Cillizza :
I am skeptical it has much if any impact on the election.
If u like Stewart/Colbert, you will tune in and like the rally. If u don't, you won't likely watch or approve.
In an election where there is considerable economic anxiety in the country, I can't imagine a rally by two comedians is going to alter the political calculus all that much.
– October 29, 2010 11:10 AM
I believe, as I will sit back months from now, looking back at the lessons learned from the 2010 elections, there is one lesson that will stand out above all others: rents are too damn high.
Chris Cillizza :
I, too, have learned that lesson well.
– October 29, 2010 11:10 AM
Apparently the DCCC is paying for mailers that support the Libertarian candidate in MD's 1st and others. Is this pure genius or pure folly?
Chris Cillizza :
– October 29, 2010 11:10 AM
Politico is reporting that the DCCC spent $1.5 million last week attacking keith Fimian, along with more ads aired by a gun control group headed by Mayor Bloomburg. How close is this race? Is Connolly in trouble?
Chris Cillizza :
The DCCC has gone up in a number of D leaning districts over the past few weeks as they try to avoid a blowout loss on Tuesday.
I would put VA-11 into that category. Fimian is probably too conservative for most northern Virginians but the district has elected Republicans before.
I think if Connolly loses, you are looking at 60+ seat losses for Democrats. It's not the most likely scenario but it's also not out of the realm of possibility either.
– October 29, 2010 11:12 AM
How pathetic and desparate do I looking phoning Kendrick Meek and asking him to drop out of the race and endorse me? And how much do I wish I ran for a second term as governor, rather than running for the Senate two years after being elected to my first term?
Chris Cillizza :
You VERY much wish you had stayed and run for a second term as governor.
I have said before -- and will say again now -- that Crist's independent bid was among the most disappointing campaigns of the cycle.
Polling in the summer suggested he could win the race and he had the money to prosecute a real campaign. But, he never seemed willing to do so and the race basically ended by mid September.
– October 29, 2010 11:14 AM
Where will the Chris Cillizza be taking his talents this weekend?
Chris Cillizza :
I will be taking my talents to Catholic University to watch the 12-3 Cardinals finish up their season ahainst Moravian College.
Then, I am going to take my talents for a nap. I am exhausted.
– October 29, 2010 11:15 AM
Is there real movement in PA and IL towards the Republicans?
Chris Cillizza :
Slight movement but, yes, i think real.
My guess -- and it's only a guess because most polling has stopped this close to an election -- is that both Republicans lead by 3 or so points right now.
If you believe that Republicans wil, enjoy a significant enthusiasm gap on Tuesday, it's hard to see Democrats winning either.
But, both races have fluctuated considerably over the last month so change is still possible.
– October 29, 2010 11:16 AM
McAdams is now the highest-polling candidate actually on the ballot in AK. And the national Democratic party is dropping some late money on the race. This thing is a real contest now, right?
Chris Cillizza :
I think it is now Democrats best chance to pick up a Republican seat. That's not to say they will do it but the collapse of Joe Miller and the fact that Murkowski is running as a write-in gives McAdams an opening.
His problem is that voters leaving Miller seem more likely to ultimately bite the bullet and vote for Murkowski than cast a ballot for a Democrat.
But, still, this is a late-breaking and interesting opportunity for Democrats.
– October 29, 2010 11:18 AM
Any chance someone other than Boehner is elected Speaker (assuming Dems lose control)? If the numbers are truly staggering would the Republican majority then look to someone more partisan, more acceptable to the Tea Party? Who would it likely be if that's the case?
Chris Cillizza :
No. I think Eric Cantor is content with being Majority Leader. There may be a scrap for the other leadership posts but I do think Boehner is the speaker in waiting.
– October 29, 2010 11:20 AM
If Harry Reid goes down to defeat, do you expect Chuck Schumer to be the new Majority Leader in the Senate?
Chris Cillizza :
I have said before, and I will say again, I think the 2006 and 2008 cycles proved the folly of betting against Chuck Schumer in anything.
– October 29, 2010 11:20 AM
Mr. Chris Cililizza sir, it has been many months since I have graced this chat with a question or dubbed you the homeless man's Bill Simmons! Much like the Ultimate Warrior, I am returning from hiatus to reclaim my mantle.
Today's query: Why isn't anyone talking about Lee Terry as a potential R incumbent loss? His numbers are worse than Charles Djou, Charlie Dent, Ken Calvert, or Dave Reichert and almost as bad as Joe Cao! 42-39 a week from election day...could he be an example of an incumbent R people don't see losing who goes down?
Chris Cillizza :
Wow.
A HMBS reference and an Ultimate Warrior reference. Well done sir.
Democrats do still talk about beating Lee Terry -- a little bit. Why don't they talk about it more? Because red states like Nebraska -- GO BIG RED -- have become redder and redder over the last 2 years.
– October 29, 2010 11:22 AM
Sorry, dude, no rest for the weird. Election cycles go 365/24/7 now, hadn't you heard?
Chris Cillizza :
They may go 365/24/7 but I can tell you that on Nov. 4 or so, the Fix will be taking a break.
Will you miss me?
– October 29, 2010 11:23 AM
Will you be wearing a Nexus armband, in mourning the end of the CT Senate Race if Linda McMahon goes down to defeat?
Chris Cillizza :
Getting out my old Dx stuff....
– October 29, 2010 11:23 AM
Will you be posting a picture of Fix Jr. in his lion costume for those of us who like to go "Awwww" over such things?
Chris Cillizza :
Up to the boss aka Mrs. Fix.
– October 29, 2010 11:23 AM
What are the chances of 'Shove it' Caprio bleeding enough votes to Robitaille that the GOP holds RI-Gov? Also, if the GOP wins Gov races in ME,VT,RI and CT (all possible) will people stop saying the GOP is dead in New England?
Chris Cillizza :
I don't think Robitaille can win but Caprio is going to finish third.
The whole "shove it" incident, which is still kind of surreal by the way, cost Caprio liberal Democrats -- the swing vote in the race between he and Chafee.
Chafee's likely win means two former Senators will be elected governor this fall: Linc and former Minnesota Sen. Mark Dayton.
– October 29, 2010 11:25 AM
Don't forget New York! The current governor, the most recent past governor, the current Republican candidate, the very strange state of the legisture. I'd stack the Empire State up against any other for strange goings on. Of course, New York doesn't have a Christine O'Donnell or Sharron Angle, but that could change.
Chris Cillizza :
Well, I think Paladino vs Dicker might be the highlight of the cycle.
An editor recently suggested to me a "one shining moment" type of video to recount the best (and worst) of campaign 2010.
Aside from "I'm a witch", which is clearly the lead, what else belongs on there?
– October 29, 2010 11:26 AM
You claim to have no interest in or talent for prognostication, but throw us a bone anyway. What's the final count in the House and Senate on Wednesday?
My guess (based on detailed analysis and guess work) :
House - 231(R), 207(D) Senate: 48(R) - 52(D)
Chris Cillizza :
Stay tuned...I participated in the Post Crystal Ball Competition...my picks will be in the Sunday Outlook section...
– October 29, 2010 11:26 AM
C-$...now that you have opened relations with Bill Simmons - ala Nixon & China - when can we expect you to make an appearance in his mailbag or the posting of some fix-simmons email exchanges on late 80s WWF wrestling and esoteric indie music?
More importantly, if I had told you that Rand Paul, one of the 4 or 5 craziest people in America, would win a senate seat and actually make that seat more-sane, would you have ever believed me? Ladies and gentlemen, Jim Bunning!
Chris Cillizza :
Simmons=good people.
Not sure he wants to run the risk of damaging his brand with an association with the ole Fix ;)
And, is that a scientific study on Rand Paul?
– October 29, 2010 11:27 AM
Wasnt it a bit much with intro and of him running into the ring and shaking the top rope with both hands.
Chris Cillizza :
How about the ribbons he wore on his biceps and the face paint? That was WAY crazier.
– October 29, 2010 11:27 AM
Interesting that you note that "Fimian is probably too conservative for most northern Virginians but the district has elected Republicans before." I live in VA-11 and while I agree that Fimian is more extreme than I would like, I will still vote for him just to get Connolly out. I think this is what Connolly has to be aware of. Many in VA-11 are voting anti-incumbent whether they stand with Fimian on all issues or not.
Chris Cillizza :
And that is this election -- everywhere -- in a nutshell.
People may not like the Republican candidate but those feelings are trumped by the desire to bring about genuine change in Washington.
– October 29, 2010 11:28 AM
Who's gonna win?
Chris Cillizza :
Murkowski I think. Would not be stunned if McAdams won. WOULD be stunned if Miller finished anywhere but third.
– October 29, 2010 11:29 AM
Chuck Schumer won't be the new Majority Leader in the Senate. Mitch McConnell will.
Chris Cillizza :
OOOOH! The answer!
And, speaking of "The Answer", Allen Iverson has signed to play in Turkey.
– October 29, 2010 11:30 AM
South Carolina is the real place for political junkies to wince, shake head, repeat!
Chris Cillizza :
I missed this message while I was hiking the Appalachian Trail.
– October 29, 2010 11:30 AM
Is there still a shot for Fiorina to win this race?
Chris Cillizza :
In the sense a longshot is still a shot, yes.
– October 29, 2010 11:30 AM
Is the momentum shown by my sitting governor in the latest polls (1) real and significant, (2) real, but too late, or (3) meaningless, in that I should make plans for Gov. Kasich?
Chris Cillizza :
Hello Ed Stevens.
GOing to be a very close race but everyone I talk to -- D and R -- thinsk Kasich is going to win.
The thinking is that Strickland made a nice comeback in the final month but could just never get over the top in the state.
– October 29, 2010 11:31 AM
Dawg, check it....I have an idea for something all of your fixistas may enjoy, especially post-election. Stewart Mandel, the SI college football writer does a weekly where are they sort of deal, wherein an update on a former star of the 80s is given.
I saw you do the same for former politicos. I know many of us would like to know what random people from back in the day are up to. Rod Grams - where the heck is that guy!
Chris Cillizza :
Um, thanks dawg.
And, that is an absolutely brilliant idea. I wonder what Mark kennedy -- the guy who lost to Amy Klobuchar in Minnesota in 2006 -- is doing now?
– October 29, 2010 11:32 AM
Fix, I miss you already. But what's up with the Post running Milbank against you at the same hour this morning? Certainly an embarassment of riches, but annoying none the less.
Chris Cillizza :
Me vs Milbank!
It's like Redskins-Cowboys. Hoyas-Orange. Texas-Texas A&M.
– October 29, 2010 11:33 AM
5% away in the polls and who knows - although the rules aren't bad for write-ins it's still a write-in which for Murkowski -
Am I crazy or is the DSCC CRAZY if they don't dump resources in big time?
An no, I'm not McAdam's mom
Chris Cillizza :
They ARE spending money so looks like you were right.
Also, Magnum, Blue Steel, Le Tigre? They are all the same look. Am I on crazy pills here?
– October 29, 2010 11:34 AM
Is it possible Alaska will be left with one Senator pending a recount from hell like what happened in Minnesota?
Chris Cillizza :
I do think there is going to be some MAJOR leagal wrangling in the race.
There is no defined standard on how votes will be counted for Murkowski. The elections division has said as long as a voter's intent is clear, it will count. But, "clear intent" is in the eye of the beholder -- just like a hanging chad.
No. I. Didn't.
– October 29, 2010 11:35 AM
True or False: If Stewart/Colbert were smart, they would come out at the start of the rally and say, "Just kidding! It's actually a Springsteen concert, with Josh Ritter opening!"
Chris Cillizza :
Well, that would make the ole Fix really happy.
Josh Ritter=stunningly underrated.
– October 29, 2010 11:36 AM
I wouldn't vote for Crist if RUBIO dropped out. As a semi-great leader once said: "Fool me once, won't get fooled again," or something like that.
Also, I'm going with NOTA for Congress: even though Idiot Son Connie Mack is doing a decent job, I'm on the record as anti-nepotism.
Chris Cillizza :
Didn't the Who say "don't get fooled again".
Also, is anyone pro-nepotism?
– October 29, 2010 11:38 AM
Glad to see that you recognize where the power lies.
Chris Cillizza :
Good to see my wife is on these chats.
– October 29, 2010 11:38 AM
Could Deval Patrick lose?
Chris Cillizza :
Could? Sure. Will? Seems less than 50-50.
Patrick is proof it's better to be lucky than good. The blowup between Republican Charlie Baker's campaign and Independent Tim Cahill's campaign left the incumbent looking like the only statesman in the race.
And, Baker appears to have peaked way too soon and has struggled to make up a persistent single digit deficit against Patrick.
– October 29, 2010 11:40 AM
Would you classify Tom Tancredo winning in Colorado as an upset?
Chris Cillizza :
Yes.
I do think Tancredo's rising strength is intriguing although I don't believe he can win.
But, could he help drive conservatives out to the polls that could help Ken Buck in the Senate race?
– October 29, 2010 11:40 AM
If Harry Reid WINS but the D's hold Senate by 1-2 vote margin would Chuck Schumer still want the majority leader job? I'd say yes because as you pointed out he ran the 06-08 cycle pretty well and most of the remaining D's are more his disciples than Reid's. Your thoughts?
Chris Cillizza :
He might but I am not sure whether he challenges Reid for it. Seems less than likely to me but predicting what goes on in internal caucus fights is literally impossible.
– October 29, 2010 11:41 AM
What exactly does the Majority Leader do?
Chris Cillizza :
Leads the majority of course.
– October 29, 2010 11:42 AM
Do you see Jim Webb running for a second term? As you wrote, he hasn't been raising a lot of money, and that would provide an opening for Tim Kaine to run.
Chris Cillizza :
I don't.
But Webb is also one of the least predictable politicians in the Senate so I have absolutely no insight into what he will actually do.
He does not like to raise money -- and it showed in the last campaign finance report. And, former Sen. George Allen (R) is all-but-in the race, meaning Webb would have a serious fight on his hands.
I think Webb likes being a senator but doesn't like what you have to go through to get there. But, I never thought he would run in the first place so take all of the above thoughts cum grano salis.
– October 29, 2010 11:44 AM
What is going on up in Maine? The governor's race has kind of flown under the radar this cycle, but all the polls show LePage ahead.
Chris Cillizza :
Everyone I talk to expects LePage to win.
– October 29, 2010 11:45 AM
Mack. Meek. Bush(es). Clinton. Kennedy(s). Powell. Bono. Biden. Daley. And many, many more...
Chris Cillizza :
Should have said: Is anyone who is not the son or daughter of a politician pro nepotism.
– October 29, 2010 11:45 AM
in any universe- is there any chance at all that democrats can hold on to the house?
Chris Cillizza :
Sure. Like Lloyd Christmas said, "So u are saying there's a chance?"
I would say it's less than a 50-50 chance though. The combination of a rapidly widening playing field, considerable spending by outside GOP groups and historic midterm election trends suggest that Republicans have to feel optimistic about their chances a few days out.
– October 29, 2010 11:47 AM
I assume the relations of powerful people who benefit from nepotism are pro-nepotism.
Also, chat is seriously lacking in the Raj Goyle department...
Chris Cillizza :
And, the Goyle quota in our chat has been met.
– October 29, 2010 11:48 AM
Who has more seats to defend in 2012 in the Senate--D's or R's?
Chris Cillizza :
Democrats, by far.
Remember this is the class of 2006 when Democrats made major Senate gains.
– October 29, 2010 11:50 AM
That is all, Cillizza.
Chris Cillizza :
GO CUA FIELD HOCKEY.
That is all.
– October 29, 2010 11:50 AM
Is it true that ice hockey was originally played by Irish immigrants in Newfoundland Canada, and was simply a derivative of the field hockey they played during the warmer months? I had heard that but wasn't sure.
Chris Cillizza :
That certainly sounds plausible to me.
– October 29, 2010 11:51 AM
Predict the order of these losers from lowest to highest percentage vote total Alvin Greene (D-SC), Tracy Potter (D-ND), Kendrick Meek (D-FL), Christine O'Donnell (R-Del).
Chris Cillizza :
I did highest to lowest.
O'Donnell
Potter
Greene
Meek
– October 29, 2010 11:51 AM
Has this chat reached its 1 question limit on Christine O'Donnell?
Chris Cillizza :
– October 29, 2010 11:51 AM
Best piece of investigated journalism during the political campaign (that wasn't leak to NYT from McMahon campaign)?
Chris Cillizza :
Nothing uber-specific jumps to mind but I think the work the Post/NYT /WSJ has done on outside money -- where it's coming from, how it's being spent etc -- has been damn good.
Best piece of journalism I have read in a while? Peter Baker's piece on Obama from the New York Times magazine a few weeks back.
– October 29, 2010 11:53 AM
Clear Eyes Full Hearts No Direct TV
At least two cast members on Good Wife also appeared on FNL.
Lyla's former Christian boyfriend and Jason Street are now on Good Wife.
Chris Cillizza :
Tell me nothing!
I am one of those people who don't have Direct TV and have to wait until the series runs on NBC.
BRUTAL. Is there any way to watch the new episodes without DirecTV?
– October 29, 2010 11:53 AM
Considering their whole outsider and never-heard-of-Washington-D.C. campaigns, how do these fringe Republicans who were upsets in the primaries and may or may not win in the general, who do they run for re-election in 2016?
Chris Cillizza :
That's six years from now. Who know how any of the people elected to the Senate will do in that time or what the political landscape will even look like?
– October 29, 2010 11:54 AM
Now that we have early voting, I wish that someone would invent a device that, once you have voted, will prevent any more campaign ads from showing up on your TV or in your mailbox. Oh, and will prevent any robocalls, too. We got one from Pat Boone (yes, that Pat Boone, dad of Debbie!) the other day, touting Andy Harris. Where is that good old American ingenuity and innovation when we need it??
Chris Cillizza :
I am going to start working on that invention as soon as this chat ends.
I can't be a journalist forever....
– October 29, 2010 11:56 AM
To The Fix: I missed your Monday and Wednesday chats this week. What happened? Did I miss a vital piece of info somewhere? Please don't tell me that I can only look for you on Fridays! That will leave some bleak days in Rochester, MN.
Chris Cillizza :
Sorry...I have been overloaded with stuff in the final week before the election. No slight meant. And, thanks for missing me!
– October 29, 2010 11:57 AM
Folks, I am signing off.
Look for our final Fix House Line to be posted shortly on the site -- a look at the 65 races we consider most likely to flip on Tuesday.
See you all Monday at 11 am for the last Fix chat before the election!
Have a great weekend and Happy Halloween!
Chris