Oct 18, 2010

Every Monday morning, Fix blogger Chris Cillizza discusses who made news over the weekend and previews the week ahead for Congress, the Obama administration and the world of politics.

15 days!  We are almost there everyone.

Come celebrate with me tonight at the Cap Lounge on Capitol Hill...it's the last "Politics and Pints" before the election.

Trivia! Beer! Chicken Fingers! Fix Aaron! Fix Felicia!

What more could you ask for? RSVP at our Facebook event page: http://www.facebook.com/cillizza?ref=search#!/event.php?eid=160345950654049

Is the new Conway ad about the Aqua Buddha controversy airing on TV in the Kentucky Senate race, or just online?

I believe it is airing on television.

HUGE debate about the ad...the question is whether stuff Rand Paul did in college -- in what was some sort of hazing ritual -- is fair game in the context of politics.

It seems to be that we have entered an age where everything -- literally -- that you have ever done in your life will come up in a campaign.

Is that a good thing? Probably not. (It's also why the Fix will never run for office.) But, it's a reality.

More on this in a Fix post shortly

Ken Buck's comments on homosexuality being a "choice" -- does it help him by securing the base with social conservatives in Colorado Springs or hurt him by scaring off suburban voters?

Well, Buck was not on the top of his game yesterday. 

The whole shebang for both candidates is suburban Denver and particularly women.

Bennet's campaign has already spent lots of time and money making Buck's comments on abortion and his involvement in the failure to prosecute a 2005 rape case an issue in the race.

My guess is they will  target his comments about homosexuality to these same subruban women hoping to create an image of Buck as a radical social conservative.

Buck wins this race is it's a referendum on the economy and the policies Obama and the Democratic Congress has put in place to address them.

Bennet wins if it's a referendum on whether Buck is too conservative for the state.

How does Russ Feingold win re-election? Is it even possible at this point?

I think it's very tough.

Ron Johnson is running an absolutely terrific campaign. If you want to see some good ads, go to his site and watch his. They are outstanding.

Feingold, who almost everyone expected to run a top notch campaign, hasn't. He has run ads that remind people that he has been in the Senate since 1992 -- odd in an election like this -- and tried to defend policies like health care that, in the eyes of many Wisconsin voters, aren't defensible.

Feingold is still within shouting distance and therefore could make a comeback -- strange things happen at the end of races.

But, Johnson has to be considered the favorite today.

You and your colleagues and competitors keep saying there is no way for O'Donnell to win in Delaware. Then why were both President Obama and Vice President Biden in Delaware on Friday? If that race were 100% locked up for Coons, they wouldn't have been there.

Fair enough.

But polling shows O'Donnell down 20+ points.

And, this question meets my "one question on Delaware Senate" limit per chat.

Will you take the P&P on the road as the 2012 race heats up? NH could use a P&P event!

A GREAT idea that is under consideration. Would people come?

And, thanks for the chance to plug Politics and Pints again: TONIGHT. 7 pm. Cap Lounge. Get your trivia on. Get your chicken finger on. Get your drink on.

(And, yes, I am aware how old that last sentence made me sound.)

Will we get to hear you doing a Ric Flair....WOOOOOOOO

If you come., I will do my best Flair.

"You know what, Tony Schiavone, my shoes cost more than your house. Which of the lovely ladies in the audience wants to meet a real man."

I got thousands of them. Entire Fix childhood was spent memorizing Flair lines.

Today's new lesson: If you ever wish to go into politics, never be a fraternity or sorority pledge master.

So true. Fix, not a member of a fraternity. (Largely because no fraternity would have me.)

Should this name be capitalized or not? I keep seeing it as "tea party." If it is a group, shouldn't the name be capitalized? What's the Post's style for this?

We do tea party -- I believe because they are not an official party of any sort...

Does this latest story "handcuff" Joe Miller's ability to win AK-Sen?

Well played.

Not sure yet. But I will say that Miller's post-primary campaign has not been, um, good.

He said late last week that he would be conducting no more interviews on his personal life (uh, what?) and now this handcuffing thing.

I continue to be uncertain about how to handicap this race. Polling -- or most of it that I have seen -- names Murkowski as a candidate, which is not the experience most people will have in the ballot box.

So, it's hard to know whether she can succeed as a write-in.

How great would it be if Lisa Murkowski was reelected? Imagine her and Jim DeMint in the Senate for another six years!

That would be VERY high on the awkard meter.

I am sending in my mail ballot today. How do I get the political ads to stop on TV now?

My suggestion: Take a nice long vacation until Nov. 3. It's only going to get worse from here on out.

Colorado, Washington State, West Virginia and California may well be the fulcrum on which control of the Senate -- or a good/bad night for both parties -- hinges so there is going to be millions and millions spent there over the last 15 days.

Are there any Democratic upsets of Republicans that few others are predicting, but you might see as strong possibilities? All the focus seems on Republicans beating incumbent Dems, or capturing open D seats?

A month or so I wrote about the half dozen (or so) R held House seats that Dems could well pick up. (Andrea, can u link?)

Louisiana 2 and DE-AL are near certain pickups. Hawaii 1 and IL-10 are a little more competitive...

Democrats are hoping they can hold the House narrowly by winning 4-6 Republican seats.  We shall see.

I think the lesson is don't even go to college. You will not only have embarrassing party pictures, but you may have called yourself a bearded Marxist, and you will most certainly be painted an "elitist".

Yes!

Also, would people buy a book on "The Fix's rules for modern politics"? Am thinking that might be the book I should write...

There is not much news about campaigns for Texas' governor position. Perry refused to debate. Isn't it news? What would it take Bill White to win the election?

Not many polls down there of late.

I think Rick Perry probably has a mid to high single digit lead.

Barring a major Perry error -- and he rarely makes those whatever you may think of him as a politician -- he is likely to win.

White just picked a very tough cycle in which to run.  In 2006, a great year for Democrats nationally, he might have been able to get over the top.  It's harder to see this year with an electorate tipped toward Republicans.

I would so totally watch this reality show. CSPAN, get on this, put them in a house together and set up a Confession Booth.

CSPAN 4: The 10 Senators who really don't like one another. We could set it up like a "king of the ring" match...last man/woman standing wins.

What is her timetable? Her decision seems to impact the most candidates. Can't she enter last and even later than usual considering her name recognition and, um, friendly platform on Fox?

Yes. She can wait longer than most because she is well known and presumably could raise lots and lots of money in a short period of time.

That said, Palin has little to no organization in early states and it takes time to build that.

I wonder if she has the wherewithal to do so.

Thanks for the chat. I read an article online from the Post's main competitor about the lackluster campaign of Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas. My question is do you see any of the lame-ducks causing any unrest when Congress comes back or will they go "quietly into the night"?

Quietly.

For all the talk about how Democrats will pass a raft of legislation in the lame duck, I find it hard to believe they would do so if they suffered anywhere near the losses most observers think they will in 15 days.

I had a friend in law school who wouldn't take one single borderline picture, and he was interested in eventually running for office. I'm talking not sticking his tongue out at a toga party. I LOVED Krystal Ball's letter regarding this issue. Wish I could vote for her. Does she have a chance?

Golly. Depressing.

I stuck my tongue out at many toga parties.

And, as for Krystal Ball, not really. She is running in a very Republican district.

And, scene!

I have got to run -- busy day today getting ready for "Politics and Pints" tonight.

Did I mention that was happening? 7 pm. Cap Lounge.  Spread. The. Word. Facebook invite here: http://www.facebook.com/cillizza?ref=search#!/event.php?eid=160345950654049

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Chris Cillizza
Chris Cillizza is the managing editor of PostPolitics and he writes "The Fix," a politics blog for The Washington Post. He also covers the White House for the newspaper and website. Chris has appeared as a guest on NBC, CBS, ABC, MSNBC, Fox News Channel and CNN to talk politics. He lives in Virginia with his wife and son.

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