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October 15, 2010

11:08
A.M.

Reid-Angle debate, M-u-r-k-o-w-s-k-i, Beck, more on The Live Fix with Chris Cillizza

Total Responses: 44

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About the host

Host: Chris Cillizza

Chris Cillizza

Chris Cillizza is the managing editor of PostPolitics and he writes "The Fix," a politics blog for The Washington Post. He also covers the White House for the newspaper and website. Chris has appeared as a guest on NBC, CBS, ABC, MSNBC, Fox News Channel and CNN to talk politics. He lives in Virginia with his wife and son.

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Q.

Chris Cillizza :

Hello all!

Sorry to be a few minutes late, I was -- SELF PROMOTION ALERT -- on the Diane Rehm show this am.

Love that DR.

Let's get to it.

(Also, venti black tea lemonade -- unsweetened -- and pumpkin bread)

Q.

We saw the same thing right?

Chris, Last night in a debate, a middle class grandmother from Reno and supposed "fringe" candidate, wiped the floor with the Senate Majority Leader, who's been in Washington for decades. You saw that too, right? God bless America.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

I am not sure it was that decisive but I did think Angle's side had to be happy with her performance.

She is never going to be particularly polished but, with the first few nervous minutes aside, Angle delivered a performance that met what were extremely low expectations for her.

Reid, to my mind, was surprisingly weak. He repeatedly referenced his time in the Senate -- a no-no in an outsider election like this one -- and seemed unwilling to aggresisvely go after Angle on her myriad controversial statements.

Given how few undecided voters there are left in this race, the debate may not change all that much. But, it was not the sort of performance Reid and Senate Democrats had hoped for from the majority leader.

– October 15, 2010 11:10 AM
Q.

Angle/Reid Debate

The debate between Angle and Reid was odd from the word "Go". It looked so uncomfortable with the moderator and both candidates standing. None of the above should be gaining on both of these candidates
A.
Chris Cillizza :

It was SUPER uncomfortable.

Neither Angle nor Reid are easy communicators and both seemed to struggle at times to make their points.

The moderator's questions were also VERY pointed -- "will you apologize...why didn't you do more to create jobs" -- that put both Reid and Angle in tough rhetorical spots.

To be honest, it felt more like a debate for state Senate than U.S. Senate.

– October 15, 2010 11:11 AM
Q.

Harry Reid

Did you think it was a mistake for Harry Reid to talk so much of what he has done in Washington, especially in a year that is so anti-Washington?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

See my answer above.

In a word: yes.

Also, NO ONE outside of Washington knows what the Congressional Budget Office is or does. And yet read mentioned it prominently in no fewer than three answers.

– October 15, 2010 11:12 AM
Q.

Fix Posse

Does the Fix Posse have their very own gang tattoos?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Gang is such a harsh word...more like a group of like-minded individuals.

– October 15, 2010 11:12 AM
Q.

My God They Were Both Terrible!

Reid and Angle were terrible. TERRIBLE. Nevada's primary voters really hosed the state with these two losers.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

I think that most people who watched the debate may agree with you. Neither of them were stand outs -- or even close.

– October 15, 2010 11:13 AM
Q.

The Fix

How soon till you start merchandising "The Fix" items, such as calendars, t-shirts, mugs...etc,
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Well, we already have Fix t-shirts.

My goal is to have a Fix stadium seat. Or maybe just a sponsored "Live Fix" chat.

COME ON COFFEEHOUSES! No one wants in on that action?

– October 15, 2010 11:16 AM
Q.

Quick Fix

I just heard you on the DR show. How did you do this? You seem to be in a minority on how badly Angle beat Reid last night, now we know why he agreed to only one debate !

A.
Chris Cillizza :

I move fast.

And, I don't think Angle beat Reid "badly" last night. I think both of them delivered pretty underwhelming performances.

I just think she had the lower bar to clear and probably cleared it.

– October 15, 2010 11:17 AM
Q.

Time Travel

What's your stance on time travel? Is that something you condone? What if I promise to use my powers for good?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

As a "Back to the Future" devotee, I am pro-time travel. But remember, you start fiddling with even the smallest things in the past and it could have a major impact on the future.

Butterfly effect and all that.

– October 15, 2010 11:18 AM
Q.

Low Expectations

Chris, I know the feedback on the Nevada debate is Angle did well because the expectations for her were so low, but how many voters in Nevada are really undecided by this point? Does the debate really matter?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Right. A really good point.

This is a race where 3 or 4 percent of the electorate is truly undecided at this point.

Given that, it may be overstating things to suggest that the debate changed everything (or anything) in the race.

That said, I think Angle could have lost the debate -- and votes -- by coming off as erratic or too conservative. While she was clearly nervous and not very polished, I think she gave people reason to believe she could be a credible alternative to Reid.

– October 15, 2010 11:15 AM
Q.

Reid - Angle

Did Angle do enough to convince Nevadans that she's competent / not-crazy?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

We'll find out in 18 days. I think voters in Nevada long ago decided they wanted to fire Harry Reid. But, they have been unconvinced to date that they should hire Sharron Angle.

Did she do enough to close that deal last night? And will she step on her messaging again in ameaningful way between now and Nov. 2?

– October 15, 2010 11:18 AM
Q.

Reid's Wealth

Do you think it was a low blow for Sharron Angle to bring up Reid's wealth and how he made his money?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

It DID sort of come out of the blue.

My guess would be Angle's advisers told her to try and get the fact that Reid lives at the Ritz Carlton into the debate somehow and she did her best to do that.

It felt a little forced. I actually thought Reid's response to that attack was a high point in the debate for him.

– October 15, 2010 11:20 AM
Q.

"None of the Above"

If the Reid/Angle debate results in more votes for "None of the Above," do you think that's likelier to favor Reid or Angle? What of NOTA gets the majority of votes? Then does the candidate with the plurality win Nevada's Senate seat?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

I think NOTA votes likely come out of Angle's total. As I said above, there is a widespread distaste for Reid in the Nevada electorate.

The more the anti-Reid vote gets fractured between Angle, third party candidates and NOTA the better chance the Democrat has of winning.

– October 15, 2010 11:21 AM
Q.

Creepy?

Would it be creepy if my intern and I happened to be at Northside Social around 11 next Friday morning so we could catch a glimpse of our favorite political blogger? We know about Politics and Pints this Monday, but then we'd have to share you with everyone. Catholic Field Hockey RULES!
A.
Chris Cillizza :

NOT AT ALL.

I am of course not there this week due to the fact I was just on THE DIANE REHM SHOW!!!

But, no, come on by. Bu, I am typing solid from 11 am to noon so make it before or after that.

And, yes, Catholic field hockey does rule. 10-2 and ranked #14 in the country. Mrs. Fix=John Wooden of field hockey.

– October 15, 2010 11:22 AM
Q.

RE: Time Travel

What would we find if we time travelled to The Fix: The College Years?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Quick summary.

Playstation 2, basketball, gigantic nerdiness inre school work and lots more swings than misses -- stunning, I know -- with the ladies.

 

Also, lots and lots of sandwiches from Wisemiller's -- the greatest story in the world.

Done and done.

 

– October 15, 2010 11:23 AM
Q.

"man up"

What's with all the Republican women like O'Donnell and Angle attacking a man's manhood?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

That WAS a little weird, wasn't it?

But, for everyone who derided Angle's "Man up, Harry Reid" line, check out the coverage of the debate today. That line is in the lead of almost every story written about it.

Ah, journalism.

– October 15, 2010 11:24 AM
Q.

El Fix

When will you placate your growing Latino fan base and release a Spanish-version of the Fix, aka "!El Fix!"? You would need to hire a Fix Juan Carlos and Fix Maria to help you out there, of course. For purposes of "El Fix," you could go by the moniker "El Jefe." Sorry, El Guapo is taken.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Just not sure what to do with this.

– October 15, 2010 11:25 AM
Q.

Scott McAdams

Could Scott McAdams actually win the Alaska Senate Race, since he has been gaining on both Murkowski and Joe Miller?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

It now appears as though McAdams will have enough money to make sure that Alaska voters know they have an alternative to Murkowski and Miller.

Still, Alaska is a very Republican state normally -- and especially so in a year like this.

To win, McAdams needs Murkowski to remain a serious contender to the end and for the incumbent to win almost exclusively Republican votes.

Any independent or Democratic votes for Murkowski come directly from McAdams and make it harder to see how he wins.

– October 15, 2010 11:26 AM
Q.

LIKE-MINDED INDIVIDUALS

"We're not a gang, we're a CLUB!" (John Leguizamo)
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Yes. YES!

– October 15, 2010 11:27 AM
Q.

Naylor, MO

Chris, thanks for the chat. Do you believe that Lisa Murkowski can split the GOP vote in the race in Alaska?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Could? Yes. Will? Not sure.

It's so hard to predict this race because Murkowski is running as a write in. So, any poll that prompts respondents with her name doesn'texactly re-create the experience for a voter in the ballot box.

There's a reason no write in has been elected to the Senate since 1954. (Strom Thurmond!)

Check out my "Fast Fix" video from today. It's on the Murkowski write in: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/politics/the-fast-fix/

– October 15, 2010 11:28 AM
Q.

Alaska Senate

Supposedly, the race has tightened. Has/will the DSCC helped the Democrat or has he improved on his own?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

They have helped on an advice level but not a money level yet.

Given the number of Democratic held seats in serious jeopardy, it's hard to see the DSCC going up in Alaska -- as of today at least.

– October 15, 2010 11:29 AM
Q.

Hardball

I was expecting another Cheers reference yesterday, what happened?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Man. That's like saying you expected Bobby Thompson to hit the "Shot Heard Round the World" again the next time he came up.

And, yes, I did just compare my situation to the most famous homerun ever hit.

 

– October 15, 2010 11:30 AM
Q.

Christine O'Donnell

Did the debate with Chris Coons do her any good with such a huge deficit? Her whining about the establishment GOP not supporting her seems to be a handy excuse for her when she loses.

A.
Chris Cillizza :

Debate was meaningless in my opinion.

Barring Chris Coons making a MASSIVE gaffe on the campaign trail, he will be elected to the Senate on Nov. 2 -- and probably by a pretty large margin.

The attention O'Donnell gets is based almost entirely on her persona. It has nothing to do with the relative competitiveness (or lack thereof) of the race.

– October 15, 2010 11:32 AM
Q.

Back to the Future & Gtown

Hey Chris, Maybe Gtown can go back to the future too. They can go back in time and prevent themselves from losing to horrible schools like Ohio in the NCAA tourney. Go Syracuse.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Well played. Also, I hate Syracuse more than life itself. Your punishment for going there is you lived in Syracuse, New York for four years.

– October 15, 2010 11:32 AM
Q.

Obama and the South

It doesn't look like Obama has any political trips planned over the next two or so weeks for the Deep South (Lousiana east fo South Carolina) or any of the border states such as Arkansas or Tennessee. I guess we can assume the local Democrats have asked him to stay away?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Correct. OBama's approval ratings in those states are dismal and he would almost certainly do more harm than good if he did go in and campaign for any of the Democratic candidates running in those areas.

– October 15, 2010 11:33 AM
Q.

IL Senate

Kirk seems to be losing momentum. Isn't it time to entertain the possibility that a solid blue state might not vote for a Republican for senator? The DC crowd loves describing Kirk as a moderate but if he loses, it shouldn't surprise people considering how non-existent the IL GOP is these days.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Kirk has not pulled away from Giannoulias in the way that most people -- including many Democrats -- expected him to.

Giannoulias is being helped by the fact that Illinois is one of the most Democratic states in the country -- meaning that he can bring in all sorts of national party surrogates to help him gin up the party base.

Both Giannoulias and Kirk are deeply flawed as candidates. Given that, it's possible that voters throw up their hands and just vote their partisanship. If that happens, Giannoulias wins.

– October 15, 2010 11:35 AM
Q.

Is the Die Cast?

Barring October surprises in any given race, it kind of feels like "the die is cast." In other words, there probably won't be any substantial changes in polling between now and Election Day. And in fact some states have already started voting by mail. Except for those extremely close races (NV, IL, WV), it seems practically over.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Agree.

I think this is an election where the economy will be the dominant issue.  And, voters seem to be in the mood to make wholesale change -- which could lead to some unexpected losses where we aren't even looking at the moment.

Politics is an unpredictable game so it's ALWAYS possible things change but the big environmental factors seem pretty stable.

– October 15, 2010 11:37 AM
Q.

Laughing O'Donnell

What do you make of O'Donnell laughing at her jokes?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

As someone who regularly laughs -- and is often the only one laughing -- at my own jokes, I sympathize.

– October 15, 2010 11:38 AM
Q.

Stewart/Colbert dueling rallies

Any word on who the musical guest will be? Bruce?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Golly, that would be cool. A boy can dream...

– October 15, 2010 11:39 AM
Q.

Pittsburgh

"That's like saying you expected Bobby Thompson to hit the "Shot Heard Round the World" again the next time he came up." Ahem!!! Wednesday was the 50th anniversary of Bill Mazeroski's homerun that won the 1960 World Series for the Pirates in the 7th game. (The ever-gracious Maz actually showed up at a large celebration held at the remnant of the outfield wall over which his homer sailed). Now THAT'S the REAL shot heard 'round the world!!!
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Pittsburgh representing!

– October 15, 2010 11:39 AM
Q.

Brown and Boxer

Do you think that both can pull out victories in California next month, and keep it a Blue State?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

I do.

I would say Boxer is a little more likely to win than Brown. But, both are helped by the strong Democratic underpinnings of the state.

In the govs race, I am just not sure how much "nanny gate" and the "whore" comment matter.

Do voters dismiss both incidents as sideshows? Does one matter more than the other? It's just very difficult to know.

– October 15, 2010 11:40 AM
Q.

Senate Races

Is there a surprise seat that Dems might win on Nov 2? Maybe NC Sen? Seems like Burr's polling is shockingly underwhelming (at least his fav/reelect #s). Also is it a mistake for the DSCC to be spending in Nevada? It seems like that money would be better spent elsewhere given how much $ has already been spent in Nevada and how well defined both candidates are.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Not really.

I don't think Dems win in NC. There is a poll showing the Louisiana Senate race within single digits but, again, I am skeptical that David Vitter loses in an election cycle where the wind is blowing strongly at Republicans' backs.

The DSCC will spend whatever it takes to keep Reid in the Senate. It's justb how the process worked. They did the same in 2004 for Tom Daschle. And the National Republican Senatorial Committee did the same for Mitch McConnell in 2008.

– October 15, 2010 11:42 AM
Q.

Dana Milbank

Do you ever walk up to Dana and tell him, do you smell what the Cillizza is cooking
A.
Chris Cillizza :

No. But that is a really good idea.

– October 15, 2010 11:43 AM
Q.

Sestak v. Toomey

Is Sestak closing or what?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

I think he is.

The operative question now is whether he was too far behind to make up enough ground before Nov. 2.

The advantage for Sestak is that he is running in a state where Democrats have a 1.5 million registration edge over Republicans, which gives him some significant room for error.

The problem for Sestak is that the national party -- and President Obama -- is not particularly popular outside of Philadelphia, making it hard for him to win over independent and moderate voters.

Definitely getting closer though...

– October 15, 2010 11:45 AM
Q.

NOT a Reid-Angle Ques. (Joe Manchin's New Numbers)

How much credibility should we give the new Marshall U. poll that has Joe Manchin leading Raese 48/38? What a 'reversal of fortune'!
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Seems like Manchin has regained his footing somewhat after a VERY rough few weeks.

Manchin is still very popular among the state's voters, which should help him successfully distance himself from what it a very unpopular national party in the Mountain State.

– October 15, 2010 11:46 AM
Q.

Kicking Themselves List

You should make a list of politicans who could have run and won but didn't (examples being Gephardt or Cuomo in 1992). There are also a lot you could do this year (Tony Knowles, Beau Biden, Lisa Madigan, Dean Heller, Shelly Moore Capito, etc)
A.
Chris Cillizza :

GREAT question.

Beau Biden is at the top. Dean Heller for sure. Lisa Madigan would be cruising into the Senate right now, I think.

This is a good post...Fix posse will get on it asap.

– October 15, 2010 11:47 AM
Q.

Nevada

Given that this race is neck and neck, I have to ask whether or not Dean Heller is kicking himself. If he would have ran, he might have put Reid away for good. Why didn't he run?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Because he saw an easier path in 2012 when badly damaged Sen. John Ensign (R) is up for re-election.

Assuming Ensign retires, Heller could have the GOP nomination to himself.

If Ensign tries to run, Heller will likely primary him with the support of various state and national Republicans.

– October 15, 2010 11:48 AM
Q.

Hardball, or Beanball?

Maybe it's that you're now on the MSNBC payroll, but Chris Matthews seemed awfully dismissive toward you last evening. What's up with that? Or am I just being overly protective of our favorite son as he ascends the punditry ladder?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Someone emailed me and told me I have to interrupt Chris less!!!

– October 15, 2010 11:49 AM
Q.

This Weekend

Where will you be taking your talents this weekend, and did you know that Hulk Hogan and Ric Flair have joined sides on TNA and are both heels
A.
Chris Cillizza :

I will be taking my talents to Scranton, PA where Mrs. Fix's field hockey team will be taking on the Scranton Royals.

Got anywhere good to eat/drink expensive coffee up there? Email me at chris.cillizza@wpost.com

– October 15, 2010 11:50 AM
Q.

Today's soundtrack?

Feel like you haven't gone on a good music tangent in a while and there's been a lot of good albums released in the last month...
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Been listening to the Witmark Demos (Dylan) a bunch lately.

What else do I need to buy? I have been in a little bit of a music dark period because of this pesky election.

– October 15, 2010 11:51 AM
A.
Andrea Caumont :

My husband and I have been obsessed with The War on Drugs. Fabulous stuff.

– October 15, 2010 11:53 AM
Q.

It's come to this?

This comment applies to any candidate for any office from any party... It is a sad commentary on leadership and voter expectations when "not blowing it" constitutes a win for a candidate for an elected office. On another note: 1.21 gigawatts!?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

I have been calling this the "bear election". As in, you don't have to be faster than the bear, you just have to be faster than the other guy.

And lots of Republicans are likely to win using just that formula.

Remember how cool Deloreans were after that movie? Man, I am old.

– October 15, 2010 11:52 AM
Q.

Rand Paul

As conservative as Kentucky is, do you think its voters will elect Paul, or is he too extreme (or "kooky") even for them?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

We'll find out in 18 days.

In an election like this one where the playing field is clearly tilted toward Republicans, we shouldn't still be talking about a Senate race in kentucky.

That we are is testament to the fact that voters still have reservations about Paul. 

– October 15, 2010 11:53 AM
Q.

WA-8

Why isn't more attention being given to Reichert? The last several polls have shown his lead narrowing. Could he be knocked off?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Well, the district -- Seattle area -- is moving in the wrong direction for Reichert.

But, he won re-election in two terrible Republicans years (2006 and 2008) so the thinking is that in a much better year nationally for Republicans this November he should be ok.

But, that district is going to be very tough for him to hold for that much longer. Demographics are destiny.

– October 15, 2010 11:55 AM
Q.

Brown (CA)

How has Brown done as mayor? Good enough to run on for governor? I haven't heard him tout his record.
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Well, he is currently the Attorney General of California.  And, he has been governor before...back in the 1970s...

– October 15, 2010 11:56 AM
Q.

Fantasy basketball

Better team name--somebody else's Lyin' King or mine, Chilean Sea Basketball?
A.
Chris Cillizza :

Both good.

I would go with "Gil Arenas' knee"

– October 15, 2010 11:57 AM
Q.

Chris Cillizza :

That's all for today folks. If you have either a) new music recommendations or b) food/drink recommendations in and around Scranton, email me at chris.cillizza@wpost.com

And, make sure to check out our DAILY "Fast Fix" video. Informative. Fun. Funny?

Have a wonderful weekend. See you Monday at 11 am for more chatting!

Q.

 

A.
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