Live Q&As

My guess is Democrats will play it up in the final few weeks of the race.

We moved the Pennsylvania Senate race from "Toss Up" to "Lean Republican" this morning based on conversations with  a number of smart Democrats as well as a new Quinnipiac poll that showed Toomey leading 50 percent to 43 percent.

The problem for Joe Sestak is that President Obama is not at all popular in the state -- just 40 percent of voters approve of the job he is doing -- and even less so among independents.

That national dynamic appears to be making it difficult for Sestak to gain traction.

That's a major point of concern for national Democrats.

I think Michigan and PA are already gone at the gubernatorial level but I do think Ohio could still come back for Democrats.

Losing those races -- not to mention Iowa and Wisconsin, possibly -- would badly hamstring Democratic attempts to avoid being bowled over in the decennial redistricting process unless they can keep control of one of the state legislative chambers in each state.

Woodward=magic.

OF COURSE. Why do you think I get people to come?  Next Politics and Pints is Oct 18 by the way -- Capitol Lounge.

Not sure and not sure it matters.

The election will almost certainly be a referendum on Christine O'Donnell and whether her profile is the right fit for the state.

Coons in this race is just the other guy. Assuming people in the ideological middle don't want to vote for O'Donnelll, all Coons has to do is meet a relatively low bar of credibility.

And, having met him, I am relatively certain he will be able to do that.

Maybe. If Ike Skelton and John Spratt manage to win this fall, I could see them calling it quits before 2012 if Republicans retook control.

There are few things in political life worse than being the minority party in the House and for some of the older Members, I can't imagine they relish the prospect after spending the last four years in the majoirity.

But, for some of these Democrats, 2012 could be a far better year politically with President Obama driving turnout among the base.

I think the Obey and Kagen seats are in play for sure. The Kind seat is more of a stretch as Obama won it by 17 points in 2008 and Kind has held it since 1996.

In a HUGE wave, it could flip but that seems very unlikely to me at the moment.

This is me not touching this question with a ten foot pole.

Ooh. Long list.

First of all, ANY Senator of either party is happy they are not up in this year.

But, there are a handful of Republicans who have to be especially happy due to the tea party's proven record of wins.

Graham would be in that group as would Lamar Alexander, Olympia Snowe, Susan Collins, Bob Corker, Dick Lugar and others.

Snowe, Lugar and Corker are all up in 2012...

Q has produced some interesting results of late.

The PA numbers -- Toomey +7, Corbett +15 in the gov race -- seem roughly right to me.

I was suprised to see Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland (D) down 17 points in a Q poll last week and stunned to see Carl Paladino (R) only behind Andrew Cuomo (D) by six points this morning.

Yes. The issue for Democrats is that people voted for change in 2008 and don't feel as though that change has been delivered. As a result, polling suggests that people are willing to give Republicans a chance even though they dislike the GOP as much if not more than Democrats.

It's a very weird election year. And, that makes predicting what will happen very tough.

What does "Woodward" have to do with this question? 

Answer: Woodward has to do with EVERY question.

As for WH COS gig, I mentioned three names in Morning Fix this am: Tom Donilon, Tom Daschle and Bob Bauer.

Send President Obama out on the campaign trail, which is exactly what they are doing.

Obama will make a campaign swing next week and my guess is that he will be on the road at least once a week through the election.

No figure is better able to get the Democratic base excited AND set the stakes of the election then Obama.

The marginal gains Democrats have enjoyed over the past few weeks are attributable in large part to Obama's raised profile on the campaign trail.

The race is essentially over. John Hickenlooper is a huge favorite.  Neither national party will spend a dime here.  The focus on Colorado is now on the Senate race between Sen. Michael Bennet (D) and Ken Buck (R).

Hard to know with 6 weeks left in the campaign but she has to be considered a favorite given the demographics of that district and the national environment.

Democrats are excited about their nominee -- Tarryl Clark -- but Bachmann's district is solidly conservative and it will be harder to oust her than most people seem to think.

Remember that she imploded on national television just a few weeks before the 2008 election -- not exactly a good one for Republicans -- and she still won.

Yes! Take that "Glee"!

Cillizza 1

Singing show 0

Victory is mine.

I have heard good things and I have loved Julie Bowen since she was Carol Vescey on the greatest show no longer on television aka "Ed".

I still am bitter at the American public for not watching "Ed". What is WRONG with you people?!

Stay tuned...am working on a Pence 2012 post for the Fix as I type...

I think, actually, Specter would have struggled more. Sestak can make the case that he is a legitimate outsider; Specter could never make that sell.

Being a moderate is never a safe place in either party particularly when there are lots of ambitious people of your party looking to take you out in a primary.

But, yes, the tea party has shown a capacity for doing just that this cycle that almost certainly puts any moderate GOPer on notice.

So true.

And, part of Obama's problem. He could NEVER have lived up to the expectations people had for him when he was elected.

Good one!

Oct 18! Be there! Capitol Lounge is the location! Fix Felicia and Fix Aaron will be signing autographs!