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The U.S. Open just kills itself to come up with imaginative threesomes that play together Thursday and Friday. They've done a great job. Here are some choices of who to follow.

No. 1-2-3 in the World play together! Donald, Westwood, Kaymer.

Mickelson, (titanic) Dustin Johnson and Rory McIlroy (19, who had a shot to win the Masters before the Sunday 80) is even better for "fan appeal."

Oldies but still goodies: Els, Love, Furyk.

Kuchar-Casey-K.J. Choi (6-10-16 in the world).

Ishikawa (teen sensation), Anthony Kim (won at CCC) and Y.E. Yang (major winner).

Bubba Watson-Adam Scott-Robert Karl;sson (who's gotten hot).

Italians: F and E Molinari (Ryder Cuppers) and teen Matteo Manassero.

Spanish: Sergio Garcia, Jimenez, Alvaro Quiros (might be the longest driver).

All Crazy Fashion group: Rickei Fowler, Ian Poulter, Hunter Mahan.

All-Hearthrob (?): Camilio Villegas, Aaron Baddeley, Brandt Snedeker.

The semi-sarcastic grouping of 'did-these-guys-really-all-win-the-Masters-in-the-last-5-yrs:' Schwartzel, Immelman, Zach Johnson.

U.S. Open, British Open and U.S. Amateur champs __and NOBODY can spell all three of their names correctly: Graeme McDonwell, Louis oosthuizen, Peter Uihlein.

Just a good group with two past Open winners: Nick Whatney, Lucas Glover and Geoff Ogilvy.

Also: Steve Stricker (top U.S. player), Retief Goosen and (hot in '11) David Toms.

Seriously, thos are a LOT of excellent groups. None of them will monopolize the crowd, except maybe Phil. So you can actually see them. And they will be spaced out __some a.m., some p.m. Some going off No. 1 tee first, others going off No. 10 first.

I think the first two days offer great fun because you don't HAVE to follow Tiger. (And, come on, for a lot of fans, they feel forced to follow Tiger because otherwise people say, 'So, you went to the Open. How was Tiger?'

The practice rounds and Thurs-Fri are all great. I'm not sure that Sunday isn't better at home on TV.

Oh, don't forget to come to the playoff on Monday....Grrrrr. Worst idea in sports. I've covered SEVEN of them on Mondays in 30 Opens. Except for Woods-Mediate I remember relatively little about 'em. Which should tell you what a bad idea they are.

The Nats showed their hand last winter when they made the $100-million contract extension offer to Greinke. They want a third dominant pitcher to put with Strasburg and Zimmermann, a pitcher who has or might win a Cy Young. So, I'd doubt that they'd want to use Marquis-sized payroll _$7.5M/yr for two years__ when they seem more interested in a $15M-a-year starter. Did you ever think you'd hear that said about the Nats?

Right now their roster screams for one top pitcher and a CF/leadoff man. And they have plenty of payroll space. So, I'd think they would want to trade Marquis by July 31, if they get a decent offer, or simply keep him and hope he has a 15-win season and helps them make a run at .500. 

Of course, the dust-up with Riggleman __and it was viewed as significant within the team__ won't help him stay. Neither's stock went up but Marquis was entirely the one who caused the problem.  However, it also brought up the question: Does this happen if the manager has a good working relationship with his players, especially his dozen-or-so key veterans players? If they talk regularly, have a sense of each other, especially since Marquis has been on the team two years, is there a blow up that has to be __and appears to make been__ mended. 

But it's not crazy to be optimistic about the Nats. If they stay above-averaghe healthy the rest of this year, they may get close to .500. However, I'll note that last year they kept talking about 'holding the season together until Strasburg gets called up." Oh, then they'd get even better.  They were 27-31 the day SS made his debut, then 28-31 after he won. Then went 41-62 for 69-93. Yet another lesson in counting chickens before they are hatched.

When they got Werth, the Nats thought it was plausible that, when they reached the point where they thought they could contend for the playoffs, that Werth might be able to play CF for one or two years. They weren't sure. It was a time-will-tell deal. But he has played there and says he still can. Would he want to do it in '12 or '13? Don't know.

But you don't pay $126M to anybody to be a leadoff man, unless its R Henderson in his prime. The question for next year is: when you have Z'man, Werth, LaRoche, Morse/Nix, Espinosa, Ramos, Desmond and, at some point in the season, maybe even Harper, where do you put 'em and where do you bat 'em.

Werth to CF at some point: Maybe.

Werth as long-term leadoff man: No way. Werth hitting 2nd? Possible, if others work out well enough.

Of course, Anthony Rendon might win a few batting titles hitting second. (Just kidding.)

What's interesting is that they have SS, JZ, Lannan, Gorzelanny, Detwiler under team control for the next couple of years, at least. And Livan would probably always come back if asked. Hey, pretty experienced 4th-5th starter. Marquis will be interesting. As I pointed out, the Nats are not aiming low in this period. They want to have a third stater who is dominant. How long will it take to find out if A.J. Cole or Sammy Solis or Robbie Ray (from the '10 draft) or the 6-foot-9 has-touched-100-mph Meyer (just drafted) will fill the bill by '13. Also, where do the older prospects __like Tom Milone__ fit in the mix.

Nice problems. Folks, the "old Nationals" era is ending. It may linger the rest of this year. Or not. But with the pipeline in the minors, the payroll room and the key players already in place, this is a high-ceiling team over the next few years. And folks like the Lerners, Rizzos and Rigglem an will be judged against this MUCH higher standard of minimum acceptable performance.

It's a new mindset. Get your head around it. This week, this month, this year? Who knows. But mid-term things are getting a lot clearer. Desmond is now your shortstop. The Nats are now 3-4-5 in fielding percentage. Espinosa has nailed down 2nd. Great game-winning AB vs Heath Bell in the 9th yesterday in San Diego. He was robbed of two singlees, a three-run double (on the SF) and a HR (which was caught above the CF fence) in San Diego. Hey, when his BABIP normalizes...

J Z'mann looking like a young Dan Haren or at least as good as Yovani Gallardo. Storen bounced back from a bad game and saved three in a row. A lot of key pieces are really looking solid. And Morse __okay, so he's "just hot." Well, a basic question about players is "How great are they wehn they are hot and how awful are they when they are cold." We have an answer. Morse just carried a bad-offense team to a close-to-.500 record __without Z'man and with Werth AWOL__ for WEEKS.

The first story on MLB that I ever got in the Post was in '70 or '71 when I was a copy boy was when I figured out that the (poor) Nats were actually about to break the MLB record for best fielding percentage in a season. Back then, I usually got to write about 5 a.m. bike races or boomerang throwing contests, if I got to write about anything at all. Eddie Brinkman, etc.

Werth looked borderline demoralized. I have no idea why they batted him No. 1. The explanation? Oh, come on. No. 2 is credible, I guess. But No. 1? It just looks desperate. And it didn't work. Unless you think 4 runs in 2 games is a lot of scoring.

If Werth hits No. 2 or 3, he'll have Z'man, Morse, Nix and Ramos behind him. He Are Out Of Excuses. The pace for 56 RBI __yes, 56 RBI__ is unacceptable for a mediocre MLB veteran. Much less Werth. I assume he'll get back on track. But it time to step up and break out. He's a streak power hitter who uses patience when he's slumping to keep his OB% up; but he's not a "good hitter." (That's why his career avaerage is .270). It's time to get hot and show the 46 double 30 homer power. Stop this leadoff nonsense. Or what he does best is get on basew. Nonsense. What he does is hit the hell out of the ball when he hits it. He had 75 extra-base-hits last year. Now on pace for 54.

It's going to be fun to watch if this is just an example of reversion to the mean. And I assume it is.

No, not at all.

Rendon fell in their laps in a span of 25 minutes. There was no time to "think" about anything. It was just, "Oh, my God, Anthony Rendon just fell to us. GRAB HIM. Figure out the rest of it later."

People in DC don't hear much about college baseball in Texas, much less Rice. His frosh and soph years, this guy was head and shoulders the best college hitter in the country and those guys usually (not always) project.

He'll get well. He'll hit. Does that mean .280 or .315 when he's 24-25-26? Will he have 10-15 homer power or 20-25? That's the difference between a "blah" but useful player and a star

Nice.

The chat appreciates all contributions of this quality!

I've never liked James much. All the Wiz memories probably. But I wasn't a knocker either.

The 'mock Dirk' thing, though it was mostly Wade, also put me over the edge into really wanting to see the Heat lose Game Six. But what about James post-game memo to fans!??? Paraphrase: You fans will wake up tomorrow and still be you. Yuck! I'll wake up (with $100M in the bank) and still be wearing underwear that says "King size" on the label.

LeBron still has that attitude from the pool movie The Hutler when the talented kid Fast Eddie loses to Minnesota Fats and says, "Even if you beat me, Fats, I'm still the best." And George C. Scott (as the manager, the devil, the world) says to Fats, "Stay with this kid. He's a loser."

Until you completely accept the verdict of the scoreboard __and build your game, your attitude, your interactions with teammates around that__ you seldom get over the top.

Dirk was smart to duck out of the post-game handshakes. After the Heat have implied that you faked an injury, or exaggerated it, you either have to act phoney or act no-class. So, he avoided both and just celebrated with teammates later.

BTW, Mark Cuban really did himself proud in the post-game. No, I'm not a Cuban guy. He's smart. But a lot of his stuff rubs me the wrong way. But, to whatever degree he really believes it, he nailed it when he said of his own role in the win:  It's an illustration of "people who are a lot smarter than me  than me telling me the right checks to write."

And Cuban is a REALLY smart guy. That should send a message to other owners: Business success doesn't translate to sports executive success. They are almost always different skill sets. Hire somebody who has proved that they have that skill set.

Money won't be the problem. The nats have it and have proved they will spend it. Marquis is saying what all (sane) free agents say, "I want to stay." It's bargaining 101. OTOH, Dunn really WANTED to stay.

Of the slumpers, who will end the year with more RBI, more runs producxed (R + RBI - HR), Dunn or Werth?I expect they will both get back on track. Carl Crawford's #s still look awful, but he's coming around. I just don't think he will EVER be worth the m oney Boston paid him, especially playing in that park that doesn't suit him.

Noted...with emphasis.

Have you looked at the Yankees offensive numbers! Staggering. Partly it's the new ballpark's short fences. But they are a scoring factory. Losing Joba will hurt. But it's not over in the A.L. East or anywhere else.

As I mentioned in a column quite a while back, baseball will almost certainly expand to 10 teams in the post-season next year. That fifth team in each league will help franchises like Washington and Baltimore have more realistic hopes. We know that, still in last place, the Nats are ahead of 9 teams in attendance. If they get to .500, where will they stand? What if they are in a wildcard race? What about the year after they make the playoffs for the first time? (I didn't say what year. Could be 2020.)  Those aren't really rhetorical questions. We actually do not know. Towns like Milwaukee have reacted much better than expected to pretty-goods teams. Some towns don't show much jump when things get better. We'll see.

That same Giamatti-favorite writer said, in the 1600's, "Envy is a madness that cannot endure the good of others."

I don't think that applies to Charles or Ewing. I don't know Miller at all.

I will add that while "winning the ring" is very important, it is also used as a convenient club __by media and fans__ to beat up great athletes who have ahd wonder careers but didn't win it all. The ring matters. And a lot of them really matter, like Bill Russell. But there is nothing wrong with Dan Marino or Ernie Banks or Ewing.

Body of work. Quality of the life. Both worth more than a ring. Plenty of complete jerks have 'em, trust me.

They'll sign Rendon (a Boras client), Meyer and the CF from Miami-Dade CC Goodwin. The fourth pick Purke is a gamble. They are using a 4th-rd pick to try to steal a high pick (by paying above slot) for Purke.

If you haven't, read Mike Wise's excellent column on Game Six. He mentions that Stevenson, Haywood and Butler were chanting, "Worst to First!" after the game.

The final verdict isn't in yet. But, man, it looks like __even after he makes a few errors__ that Desmond is in the process of turning a huge corner at SS. Some, who have the same stats in the minors and early MLB season, do get their fielding percentage up to >.965. His is now .971 and on pace for 20 errors, down from 35. 

The hitters he most resembles stat-wise at the same age are Orlando Cabrera, Julio Franco (a SS in early years) and Stephen Drew. Not greats, but very good hitters. Probably haven't seeen the best of Desmond at the plate. At 20-25 errors, he's a fine SS. At <20 errors, he's REALLY valuable, even if he hits 7th or 8th.

I'd really like to see the interior defense of Z'man, Desmond, Espinosa, Morse and Ramos/Pudge stay healthy and together for a while. It'd be pretty! Hairston made a great defensive play in the 9th yesterday and has done a nice decent job, along with Cora, while Z'man has been out. You can't ask them to be hitters. They copntributed what they had, like Cora;s three hits yesterday.

Sure looks like it, doesn't it. Of course, getting bacxk-to-back starts in those huge parks in SF and Sd against pathetric offenses distorts it some __he gave up one run in 14 IPs in those games.

But in his last six starts he has a 2.04 ERA with 37 Ks in 39.2 innings and only seven walks. He really trusted his fastball in SD. As everybody noted as soon as they saw him in '09, he's not only fast (92-to-95, touches 96) but also sneaky fast. In four at bats on Sunday, he threw all fastballs __22 fastballs in all. The results, K, K, F4-6, 8. The more they saw it, the more they tightened up trying to "get to it" and the more he overpowered them. (But it was the Pads.) 

But feel free to be excited. Both Z'mann and Stras will only appreciate good times all the more after TJ surgery which, despite the high recovery rate, still scares any young pitcher almost to death. You see your career flash in front of your eyes.

Both Nats and O's fans have reason to be happy going into their 2nd meeting this weekend. How stupid was it to have this series opposite the U.S. Open? Nobody's fault. I asked around. All teams ask for 5 or 6 "breaks" in scheduling but only get one or two of them.

Lots of home games should help Nats. Also, the odds are now balancing out and they are winning more one and two-run games. The O's really have two fine top-of-the-rotation arms in Matusz and Britton, though neither is a Strasburg. I still change my mind about Arrieta every time I see him. The O's problem is that they don't have nearly as many long-term pieces that are a solution to the puzzle. Vlad and D Lee will go. But Manny Machado (SS, No. 3 overall draft pick last year) has a .924 OPS in the Sally League for Delaware, the same league Harper is in. 

The Nats have a hard time with St. Louis and Maya, against Pujols, etc., doesn't look like a great way to start a homestand. But this could be a nice chunk of the season for them w 19 home games before the All-Star break.

Larry Walker!!!!? The guy won batting titles hitting .350, .363 and .379! Okay, Colorado. Harper doesn't have to be as good as Walker (a superior OF) to be a success.

If he's as good as David Justice __ROY, three-time All-Star, once hit 40 homers, career 305 homers, .878 OPS and 3 AS teams__ I'd call that a big success.

People, this kid hasn't gotten out of A-Ball. He rubs some people the wrong way. He doesn't hit lefties with good breaking balls. Will he be patient enough at higher levels or too anxious to hit the next 450-foot bomb and chase too much? It's the COMMAND, not the stuff that really improves as you go up the ladder. How will he cope with that as he goes up the ladder? Lotta talent, but raw in other areas. Just root for him to be good. Leave "great" to the future.

Okay, I'm a hopeless case. I studied Lannan over the weekend in as much depth as I know how to study any pitcher. After 107 MLB starts __a significant sample__ he has a 4.04 ERA but a 32-43 record.

Is he really an average MLB starter, and thus very useful 4th-5th starter, as his ERA would imply? Or does his high Whip (1.411 career) and poor W/K ratio mena he's a low-stuff guy whose record really tells the ttuth: lucky to be in a MLB rotation.

The correct answer is "A." I''m positive. His run suppirt his whole career has been abysmal __3.6 runs per nine innings pityched vs the MLB norm of 4.6. Think about that: 3.6 vs 4.6! You can hardly find anybody over a four-year period who has been supported that badly. Also, this is the first year he's had a good defense __and his ERA has suddenly dropped to the 3.60's. Connected? A pitch-to-contyact guy who is great at getting DPs. He has "converted" 16% of all GIDP "situations" __far higher than the league norm of 11%. That means he's gotten about 25 more GIDPs in his career than you'd expect.

What does that MEAN? I have a method to adjust WHIP for GIDP which adds an out and subtracts a runner from the bases. Lannan's real "adjusted WHIP" should be about 1.333. That, to me, explains why his ERA is 4.04, not 4.70 like the FanGraphs and FIP stats predict. They are missing a key factor. Also, his GO/AO ratio of 1.70 vs a MLB norm of 1.07 is really excellent. If you con sistently get that many ground balls __and he has for 107 starts__ then your BABIP will be better than normal and you'll get a ton of GIDP.

Oh, Goid, I didn't really just write that, did I? Just pretend I'm the guy quoting the Maxims of La Rochefoucauld, not the stat dweeb.

Sign Lannan to an extension if he keeps this up another six-eight weeks. Yeah, make him do it a little longer. Don't know why. I just feel that way. He's durable. Who knows why? But he ius. He's your 4th or 5th starter.     

Wow, nice comparison!

Remember LeBron when asked how many NBA titles they would win and he said, "Not 5, Not 6, Not 7..."

Only seen that level of hubris __before winning anything__ once before. When Nicklaus won the '86 Masters, they asked Norman how he felt and he said __wish I could remember exactly__ that he was happy for Jack and that he'd win a whole bunch of greeen coats. Wish I could remember the number. My jaw dropped. The "loser" sign went up over his head in my mind. And he lived down to that estimate of how he'd perform in the clutch. "We promise according to our hopes and perform according to our fears." Norman had plenty of those. How about the Phillies? Don't know. Not many, I suspect. Pretty tough bunch. But they are "just another 95-100-win team." That doesn't ice 3-4-5 World Series crowns for you.

Good observations. Isn't hindsight wonderful! The Nats certainly wasted the Bowden years. Not entirely. Z'man and a few others are his. He got on the scene before the Lerners ever got the team, made the "bet" that they would be the winning group and was tight with them. He had their ear. How'd that work out for 'em?

I covered preps for six years and had plenty of contact w prep coaches after that. I'm biased having played for him. I never met one better. What seperated him was that he was a good enough football coach that West Virginia wanted him to be their head FB coach and a good enough basketball coach that Dean Smith wanted him to come to UNC to be his head assistant. He had Top 10 teams in the DC area with a school that had a graduating classw of 50-55. His FB teams had winning seasons 29 of 32 years. (And I was one of his QBs on two of the years when he was 4-5 and 4-5. The year after he was rid of my class, the team went undefeated and No. 5 in the whole D.C. area. How did those guys get so good as soon as we were gone?) Like his friend Morgan W at DeMatha, Sleepy had a "calling" as a HS coach. I'm sure glad he did.

Well, enough St. Stephens and St. Agnes School talk! Sleepy, a three-sport star at St. John's, who got his nickname from being picked off 1st when he was playing in the minors for the Red Sox, would have been in heaven this week. The Mavs played his find of smart team basketball. And he'd have been at Congressional every day! Saw his daughters recently. Good memories.

But all the new memories are waiting out at Congressional this week.

I'm rooting for the guys with the near-miss albatrosses around their necks. Duistin Johnson (82 in the final round of the '10 U.S. Open when a 76 would have won). Rory mcIlroy who shot 80 on Sunday this year when he had a chance to win the Masters. Lee Westwood who is 0-for-38 in majors and, at 38, needs to get it done. He was a terrible major-championship player __until the last couple of years. Now, he's right in it time after time but can't get over. Also, Luke Donald who's 0-for-21 in majors and underrated. Finally, after all his 2nd place finishes in the U.S. Open, I'll ever root for a cold Phil Mickelson who hasn't played well since January.

It's wide "Open." I hope were talking about it next Monday (and not walking around a playoff with 800 spectators.) Cheers!

Building block.

Arenas, Portis...

Lets not go that way

Excellent info. Thanks.