If you, Dan Steinberg, Video Editor Jon Forsythe and Steve Yanda all played a round robin, one-on-one tournament, who would win? Can we make this happen?
I don't know who would win among the three. But I put up $50 that I could beat Yanda and Steinberg at the SAME time, 2 on 1. In fact, I'd put $100 on that bet.
If Yanda and Steinberg beat me, I'll pay them $100. If I beat them, they give me one dollar. They've got no chance. And we can tape it.
I've never seen Jon play.
Thanks for coming, everyone. Busy day, so let's get right to the questions.
Can I get a Post Press Pass for the ACC tournament this weekend? I'll come offering gifts such as Bud Light and Chipotle.
Well, we already have six people covering this event, so we should have it well covered, right from the start of the dog game of the year between Virginia-Boston College to the end. Thanks for the offer. I've probably had too much Chipotle in my life. Patrick Stevens hangs out there daily, so you may want to try with the Bracket Mad Scientist.
Not much buzz about this ACC tournament yet.
There are pros and cons. I must say -- and I told the NCAA this -- I became a little more open to the idea of 96 teams after putting together a mock bracket of 96 teams. It was exhausting to do, and I tried hard to do it right. But if you could get teams like South Carolina and Georgia into the bracket, they could win a few games, perhaps. So I would watch, cover it, and probably be okay with it in the end. But it would really take a lot of excitement out of the regular season. I had 13 Big East teams in there, no problem. And you could sleep through some of the big conference tourneys, because they would not mean much at all. The top teams would get byes in the first round. I just think its needed.
No one that is left out of the field this year will have a legit argument. And there will be teams that make the field that maybe should not in most years.
Florida has lost three in a row and it is still in.
Illinois has a 75 RPI, which would be the lowest ever for an at-large, and it is still in.
Virginia Tech has a 340 nonconference schedule ranking and it is still in.
The Pac-10 now looks like it could get two bids despite being the dog conference of the year. Amazing.
What they are doing, and I didn't have a chance to post this, is this: The record in the last 12 is not being included anymore on the team reports page. Every committee member has a laptop in the room and you can click around to different team reports, put one up against another, etc. And it's really easy to look at all the criteria. By having that record there, people may have put too much weight in that record without looking closer at who teams played during that stretch. That is even more important now with a lot of unbalanced nonconference schedules. So it just forces committee members to look closer at who teams played in the end and not just that record in the last 12 games. But I think the hot teams in the end will be rewarded and the fading teams will be penalized. It only makes sense. When they ask, Which team would you not want to play, you don't want to play the hot team.
You don't want to play a team like Maryland.
There is a 85 percent chance at least that Maryland will be 3, 4 or 5 Sunday night. If they lose Friday, I say no worse than a 5. If they win the whole ACC tourney, probably a 3, but I guess a chance at a 2 if things also break right across the country -- just don't hold out hope for that 2 seed. I am thinking a 4 or 5 -- and that's essentially the same seed.
Odds in favor of Maryland being in Spokane or New Orleans. If Duke goes Salt Lake and New Mexico goes San Jose and is placed in the West, then Maryland will not be in San Jose -- but we don't have to get into all those details now.
As for opponents? I started thinking about this. Maryland will likely draw a 12 or 13. Now, there are two types of teams they could get. Conference winners, good ones, like Cornell, Siena, Murray State, Kent State. Maryland does not want any part of that, I can assure you. Those could be dangerous. All four of those teams are good. Then there are the middling majors that are lucky the field is not contracted this season. You know who you are: Illinois, Memphis, San Diego State, Arizona State, Washington, Florida. Maryland could get any of those guys, as well.
Based on their game against Mizzou last night, is it too early to pencil my Cornhuskers in to the Big 12's automatic bid? I mean, who can stop them?!
Great win, btu I don't have enough time to list all the teams that could stop Nebraska. Missouri is falling and I think I had them as a 9 this morning. The Big 12 is loaded at the top. Would not surprise me if one of the Final Four sleepers comes from the Baylor, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State trio. The best league in the country in my view. That and the Big East. But the Big East is too big.
Is this the weakest you've seen this league since ... when? It would appear the ACC has no legitimate Final Four contender, and it wouldn't be surprising to see all of its teams knocked out by the region finals.
I'm not as down on the ACC as others. This league will probably wind up getting seven bids. There are two very good teams -- Duke and Maryland -- and five good teams. Duke still has a good chance at a No. 1 seed. Maryland should be a 4 or 5. It's just that the other teams are probably no better than a 7 or 8. None of them.
Again, I would not be surprised if all seven ACC teams won a game in the NCAA tournament. But I would be surprised if more than one made a regional final. I now believe that Duke or Maryland can make a regional final. Not saying I am picking that. Need to see the matchups.
Is there any chance that my Wichita State Shockers can get an at-large bid? I know about a month ago you had them in as an at-large but they had some key loses since then.
They are an interesting case, for sure. First off, they don't deserve it, but that means nothing this season. They have one win against the RPI's top 70 and the loss to Evansville is quite the black eye. But they are on the bubble's bubble and need some other folks to lose before they would have a real chance.
"We Are the Champions" just popped onto my Pandora playlist. Which team is your pick to cut down then nets in the ACC tournament?
Duke in the ACC tournament.
Kansas overall in Indy.
Eric, we know the field is not all that impressive at the bottom, but what about the top? Realistically, how many teams have legit shots to cut down the nets? If Duke is really a potential No. 1 seed, there don't appear to be many teams contending for the title beyond Kansas, Kentucky and maybe Syracuse.
Who can really win it all? Good question (And just a warning, I will have to jump out of here about 12:55 so I will be quick)
Kansas
Kentucky
Syracuse
Ohio State
Villanova
West Virginia
Michigan State
Vanderbilt
Those are the teams that jump out to me. I may be missing one or two.
When you write that expose on college basketball recruiting and move on to Yahoo!, can you petition the Post bosses to give your job to Patrick Stevens?
You crack me up. The Maryland fans have the thinnest skin of any fans I have ever dealt with. Got your feelings hurt with the series that nailed the recruiting shortcomings after the national title? Please. Stop. Enough. Move on, folks. It's okay. Critical things will be written at times about your team, about your coach. The series just won a national award and was praised universally in recruiting circles. The same fans that wanted Gary gone and John Calipari/World Wide Wes in here last year now love him. My position has been the same: That he is one of the best coaches in the country.
I expect to be here for a long time, if allowed, but if I ever did go back to working at a carnival, I would tell my bosses that they should hire Patrick for some role, because no one is better at what he specifically does. It says a lot about the state of the industry that a guy like that does not have a job, but don't get me started on that ...
Eric: Us Terps fans are still waiting for the promised multi-part series that you told us would render fair and balanced your multi-part blistering appraisal of Gary Williams' coaching performance that you printed last year. When can we expect it? Thanks. Sincerely, Foot-In-Mouth.
Again, congrats to Gary and the team on this season. Great job. But the series was dead on and nailed the issues that plagued the team after the national title. If anyone would like to sit down and discuss the recruiting landscape, please, I'm all ears. I'm working on a few long-term things right now, but why SOME Maryland fans want to live in last year and try to get back and their critics instead of enjoying the ride this year says a lot about their message board-crazed lives. Again, the thinnest-skinned fans around. As for me? I can take any backlash you can unleash. I've endured far worse. Enjoy the ACC tourney, please, this is a special team.
Do you see any possibility of the Terps getting onto the No. 3 line with an ACC tournament championship, or are the Terps just trying to stay on the 4 line by not losing on Friday?
I think an ACC title would definitely give Maryland a 3 seed. I really do. If Maryland beats Duke in the final, hard to think they would not be at least a 3.
As a Wake Alum, I'm over Dino Gaudio. Three years and three late season collapses. Am I judging him too harshly or is it time for him to go?
I don't know if it's time for him to go, but they should be doing better with the talent they have had. I am very interesting to see how they finish out this season.
Eric (and everyone else in our fair city for the ACC Tournament), a few weeks ago you questioned our lack or quality restaurants. You must not be venturing far from the coliseum. Try Undercurrents, Green Valley Grille, Lucky 32, Print Works and you'll swear you were back inside your precious Beltway.
Thanks a lot for the tips. I'll try to get to a few. Not my precious Beltway, though. I'm not from DC, nor do I live in DC. But I love DC, I really do. Spokane or bust next week! I am already booked.
Of all the teams in the NCAA tournament, who is the team you think the Terps would have the toughest matchup with in the NCAA's? I'm guessing a team with a big front line and serious athletes. BTW, Forsythe is a pretty solid baller (think John Stockton).
If he's Stockton, I'm Steph Curry.
I think Cornell would give Maryland some trouble.
(I'm going to start going rapid fire, because they're going to kick me out of here at 12:55)
Does William & Mary have any shot at an at-large? They choked in the CAA final but have some good nonconference road wins along the way.
Great nonconference road wins vs. Wake and Maryland but a couple really bad losses. No chance.
You covered some disappointing seasons in your years covering the Terps, you must be a little ticked off that once you finally handed the reigns over to Yanda, the Terps have their best regular season since the national championship year. As you've said before, it's a lot more fun covering a great team than a disappointing team.
I actually did thnk of that. Good point. But I still get to go with the team, so it's fun. And I'll be covering the entire tournament regardless. But that's a good point.
Eric, watching the small-conference tournaments this week, it seems the favorite is usually playing in their home gym. Is that true? Do some of these conferences award the tournament to the regular season conference winner? Cool idea, but tough for the other teams.
It is true for some conferences, such as the Horizon with Butler. The conference gets to decide how its wants to hand out its automatic berth. It can do it however it wants. That's why you see some crazy tournament set-ups and schedules with league tournaments.
I am a Maryland fan, but you dont think Duke has a shot to win it all? I think this is the best team they have had in awhile. I guess the one knock is how they play away from home but you could say the same for a few of the teams on that list. Can you explain your argument on that?
I like them more than most, I do. But they have the Big Three and they need Zoubek to come through. And I am just not sure if those Big Three can all be on, and if Zoubek can play at the top of his game, for four straight games from the Sweet 16 on. I would not put them on par with the other No. 1 seeds, even though their resume is good enough for a No. 1 seed.
You didn't mention Tennessee. They already beat Kansas and Kentucky
That's a good call. I would put the Vols in that group.
You're right. I just forgot about them for a second. The Vols can beat anyone in the country.
Wow, really surprised with the inclusion of Michigan State in your "could win it all" group. They're winning games, but looking pretty dreadful while doing it. I know Tom Izzo's a master of the tourney, but I think they're a quick out this year. Not sure I'd add any teams to your list (not as impressed with Kansas State as most). Georgetown could be a dark horse: lots of talent, good in a slow game, played a ton of tough games (Butler, Duke and the in-conference), short bench not as big a deal given the long TV timeouts, and very likely the best big man on the court most nights.
I know, I thought that pick would get some people's attention. I know they have been up and down and there have been chemistry issues and all that. I will probably pick them to be out in the Sweet 16, but so much more was expected from this team and I still put faith -- maybe too much -- in Izzo finding away to get this team going at the right time. But i hear you.
I'm a Terp alum and I only had one real problem with last season's three-part series -- the timing. The series felt like a post-mortem and I felt it should've been done at the end of an unsuccessful season, not during one that still had some promise. But hey, it rallied the troops, so why complain?
Fair point.
Gary, this season, and his staff should be credited with player development and for finding a guy like Jordan Williams, who was under the radar. Excellent job by the staff.
I know everyone is saying Duke could be a No. 1 seed, but is this really defensible in your view? OSU, for one, has played a much more difficult schedule. Shouldn't they be rewarded for not playing Tulsa?
Duke has a ton of top 50 wins. OSU has a great chance at a 2 seed.
Hey, Tulsa was one of my final teams in the 96-team bracket!
The commentators on ESPN were talking about it a bit yesterday, but what do you think of the current Big East tournament format? It certainly rewards the upper-echelon teams by only needing to win three games in three days, but it does open them up to being upset by a team that has already played two games on the Madison Square Garden floor and may have the crowd behind them. Boeheim was quoted as saying he'd rather run a straight 16-team, four-round tournament with the top 4 seeds playing on Tuesday and getting Wednesday off while the middle eight teams battling it out on Wednesday to face the Tuesday winners on Thursday in the quarterfinals. The tournament bracket now just seems like such a mess.
Interesting take by Boeheim. I do think it needs to be changed. It's all over the place, very much like this chat. Limit it to 12 teams, I'm all for that.
What's the earliest conference foes can meet in the bracket? I ask because Maryland could arguably be the toughest No. 4 seed and thus would deserve to play the weakest 1 seed in the Sweet 16, but if that's Duke, it might not be allowed to happen. Doesn't seem right.
The top three teams from the same conference can't be placed in the same regional. And no conference teams can meet each other until the Elite Eight.
So if Duke is No. 1 in the Salt Lake Regional, Maryland's can't be in Salt Lake. And Maryland won't be meeting any ACC team until at least the Elite Eight.
We saw it back in 2004 when a bubble Maryland team won the ACC tournament en route to a No. 4 seed in the NCAA. Do you see any major seeding bumps from bubble teams winning their conference tournament this year, or is the committee a little more measured in seeding teams that have a magical 3-5 days?
SOme may disagree, but I don't think the committee puts too much stock in league tournaments unless something dramatic happens. I think most of the seeding gets done early for the top teams, like today and tomorrow, and will just be tinkered with some. Others may disagree. If a bubble team runs thru the Big East and gets three quality wins, that could be a real boost.
I'd give Yanda and Steinberg $100 if the two of them could beat me in a game of 2-on-1. If I win, they can give me one dollar. Playing ones and twos. No disrespect to them, but it really wouldn't even be close.
Not all of us Terp fans are so eagger to lash out. I thought the articles were excellent. The program had some tough years. It happens. I much preffer the problems be talked about rather than hushed up.
Thanks, and it is certainly not all or most Maryland fans. And I don't want to talk up the articles or anything at this point. I'm done with them. But if someone brings it up, I'm going to state my case.
What does ASU need to get in? I'm thinking beat Stanford, beat Washington gets it done. Thoughts?
Agree.
If Cincy wins tonight, are they in?
Given how bad the bubble is, it could be. Two more would be better.
Book it. But I like the 2-on-1 game idea a little more. I'm going to stop trash talking at this point. Just play.
I think they are good regardless.
No, not the women -- the men! Just beat Texas A&M today, follow that with two more wins, and it's the Big Dance by a team that was 2-14 in conference. Do you put the odds at somewhere between 100 -1 and 500-1 or higher?
Not higher.
It must be really depressing for Georgetown alums that there are more Syracuse fans in this city then them. Go Orange.
Thanks for the comment.
Despite the loss in the West Coast tournament, it looks like the 'Zags will get their first two games in Spokane, Wash. Do you think the committee will allow this to happen, or could they get shipped to San Jose? How in the world did college basketball get so terrible west of the Rockies so quickly?
A lot of Pac-10 players left early for the NBA.
I'm not so sure at all about Gonzaga in Spokane. I don't think the Zags will be a top 5 seed so i don't think it will happen.
Hey Eric, in years past it seems that Gary Williams, at some point in the second half of the season, employs the old 1-3-1 defense to limit three-point shooting or disrupt an opposing offense. Although I have not seen every game I do not remember seeing them run this this season. Are guys closing out better this season? Is Sean Mosley giving them a more solid option to shut down an opposing shooter? Is he worried about rebounding out of that set? I've always appreciated Gary's willingness to adapt when it is called for. Thanks!
Probably a little bit of all the above...the one thing about this team, you never have to worry about effort, you never have to worry about them coming out flat. We're dealing with college kids, so credit goes to the coach.
Gotta run. Thanks. Enjoyed it. See everyone soon.
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